大摩闭门会：春节消费-分化起点，还是整体拐点？260227_导读 全文摘要 春节假期后的消费市场分析揭示了积极的零售餐饮数据，同比增长5.7%，受益于假期延长、暖冬及消费意愿恢 复。尽管如此，市场恢复仍显缓慢，体现出理性消费与价格敏感性。讨论覆盖了多个子板块，如线下服务、旅 行、酒店、餐饮、酒类及海外增长机会，特别强调了海南免税、餐饮、黄金珠宝、酒店行业的发展趋势与投资机 遇。 大摩闭门会：春节消费-分化起点，还是整体拐点？260227_导读 2026年03月01日 00:31 关键词 消费 春节 餐饮 酒店 旅游 白酒 乳制品 啤酒 化妆品 体育用品 黄金珠宝 海南免税 海底捞 通缩 地产 估值 盈利 超额 回报 投资策略 出海 全文摘要 春节假期后的消费市场分析揭示了积极的零售餐饮数据，同比增长5.7%，受益于假期延长、暖冬及消费意愿恢 复。尽管如此，市场恢复仍显缓慢，体现出理性消费与价格敏感性。讨论覆盖了多个子板块，如线下服务、旅 行、酒店、餐饮、酒类及海外增长机会，特别强调了海南免税、餐饮、黄金珠宝、酒店行业的发展趋势与投资机 遇。此外，体育用品、互联网（电商、即时零售、以旧换新）以及北美市场服装、电 ...

大摩闭门会-春节消费是分化起点还是整体拐点？ 20260227 摘要 春节期间零售餐饮消费同比提升 5.7%，但"人气旺、理性消费"特征 依旧，价格敏感度高，"以价换量"仍是主线。宏观上，通缩缓慢修复， 地产负财富效应持续，消费反弹受限。 市场预期消费板块盈利与估值触底，2026 年销售收入增速预期与 2025 年持平，估值稳定在 16 倍左右。盈利预期或有小幅下修，但整体趋稳， 部分子板块盈利有望在一季报后上修。 2026 年关注四类结构性机会：线下服务消费修复（旅行、酒店、餐饮、 啤酒），价格触底后边际修复（餐饮、啤酒、体育用品、化妆品、白 酒），上游供给收缩带来的供需再平衡（乳制品），以及海外增长机会 （内容出海、传统服饰 OEM）。 海底捞春节翻台率超预期，同比增长 5%，中期看好同店销售改善与经 营杠杆释放。宏观环境改善叠加出游需求，行业有望回归开店与经营正 循环，EPS CAGR 预计 2025-2027 年达 27%，股息率约 5%提供底部 保护。 Q&A 2026 年春节假期消费数据整体呈现何种特征，是否意味着 2026 年消费进入 向上拐点？ 2026 年下半年有望出现边际价格改善。第三，上 ...

股 票 研 究 重申黄金珠宝和旅游出行的投资机会 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 赵国振(分析师) | 021-38031044 | zhaoguozhen@gtht.com | S0880524030006 | 本报告导读： 国际局势动荡，黄金珠宝与部分大宗交易公司有望重估。继续看好旅游出行景气恢 复。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 风险提示：消费复苏不及预期、宏观经济波动风险、市场竞争加剧。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情 绪价值和体验》2026.02.26 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》2026 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 重申黄金珠宝和旅游出行的投资机会 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 赵国振(分析师) | 021-38031044 | zhaoguozhen@gtht.com | S0880524030006 | 本报告导读： 国际局势动荡，黄金珠宝与部分大宗交易公司有望重估。继续看好旅游出行景气恢 复。 业 投资要点： 风险提示：消费复苏不及预期、宏观经济波动风险、市场竞争加剧。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情 绪价值和体验》2026.02.26 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》20 ...

重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 锦江酒店 | 600754.SH | 28.28 | 0.85 | 1.09 | 1.21 | 33.14 | 25.97 | 23.34 | 1.98 | 推荐 | | 首旅酒店 | 600258.SH | 17.46 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.96 | 21.93 | 19.89 | 18.19 | 1.67 | 推荐 | | 古茗 | 01364.HK | 28.48 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.33 | 24.10 | 22.83 | 19.00 | 14.24 | 推荐 | | 中国中免 | 601888.SH | 80.58 | 1.97 | 2.42 | 2.83 ...

转自：北京青年报 春节假期落幕，民航市场迅速从"一票难求"切换至"高性价比错峰出行"模式。 北京青年报记者从多家平台了解到，节后国内机票价格大幅回落，多条热门航线跌至"白菜价"，出游成 本显著下降，错峰游迎来黄金窗口期。 随着春节假期收官，旅游市场迎来错峰游的"黄金窗口期"。根据庐山风景区2月25日的公告，庐山风景 区将于2026年3月1日至3月31日对全体海内外游客免收门票，免票范围包括庐山风景区、三叠泉、白鹿 洞书院、观音桥、秀峰、碧龙潭、桃花源、石门涧等景区的入园门票。 长沙酒店均价从春节期间的442.3元降至305.9元，降幅达31%，居全国热门城市前列。按此计算，三口 之家在长沙三天两晚行程，仅酒店费用就能节省近400元。南京酒店均价从春节期间的557元降至345 元，西双版纳酒店均价从春节期间的921元降至615元。 春节期间涨价4至20多倍的潮汕地区酒店价格，节后开始"大跳水"，最高跌幅达95%。部分春节期间每 晚1208元的酒店，节后至3月中下旬的房价为每晚134元—490元不等，最大跌幅近90%。 部分景区免票至3月底 航旅纵横大数据显示，节后春运阶段（2月24日—3月13日）国内航线机票均 ...

2月26日，宝安区福永街道怀德片区举行"深港融合，活力怀德"商旅配套提升启动仪式，标志着这一集 高端酒店、商业消费与交通枢纽功能于一体的活力片区正式迈入高质量发展新阶段，为宝安建设"世界 级临空经济带"注入强劲动能。怀德商业管理有限公司、环岛中港通旅运有限公司、相关酒店负责人及 行业代表、商户、媒体嘉宾共同出席见证。 近年来福永怀德片区发展势头强劲，目前已形成"双酒店+地标商业"的高端配套矩阵：聚集深圳机场 （000089）怀德希尔顿花园酒店、深圳机场福朋喜来登酒店两大国际品牌酒店，以及总体量达18万㎡的 怀德万象汇商业中心。该商业中心引入400余家国内外知名品牌，涵盖国际轻奢、潮流服饰、特色餐 饮、亲子游乐、数码科技等多元业态，其中超五成餐饮品牌为宝安首店，是宝安西部一站式吃喝玩乐购 的消费新目的地。 本次商旅配套提升工程涵盖交通接驳、商业配套、酒店服务三大领域，最受关注的是同步开通的福永怀 德往返香港跨境巴士专线。该专线由怀德与环岛中港通合作开行，以两家酒店及怀德万象汇为固定上落 客点，每日开行固定班次经由深圳湾口岸过关，直达香港旺角、尖沙咀、中环、铜锣湾、香港国际机 场、迪士尼乐园、海洋公园等核心商圈及 ...

除了新建基础设施外，冈比亚还继续大力推广其自然和文化资源，将其作为旅游产品的核心要素。沿海 度假胜地、野生动物保护区和历史地标——包括被联合国教科文组织列入世界遗产名录的昆塔·金特岛 ——每年都吸引着成千上万的国际游客。 （原标题：冈比亚投资2亿美元促进旅游业发展） 除了基础设施投资，劳动力发展也成为一项核心优先事项。包括冈比亚酒店管理学院在内的机构正在培 训酒店服务人员，以提高服务标准和行业能力，从而强化非洲旅游业的长期投资战略。 据《非洲简讯》2月25日报道，冈比亚正加大力度通过重大投资、改善国际航空连接和劳动力发展计划 来扩大其旅游业。 政府大力推进的核心项目是耗资2亿美元的圣殿树酒店开发项目，该项目由阿达马·巴罗总统于2026年2 月初宣布。该计划旨在扩大度假村容量，实现旅游基础设施现代化，并刺激整个酒店价值链的就业。该 项目可直接创造1500多个就业岗位，并在建筑、物流和旅游相关服务领域创造数千个间接就业岗位。 英国仍然是冈比亚的主要旅游客源市场之一。连接英国和班珠尔的新直飞航班——包括从伦敦盖特威克 机场和曼彻斯特机场出发的航线——将缩短旅行时间，并提升欧洲游客的出行便利性。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a fourth quarter occupancy rate of 68.7%, an average daily rate (ADR) of $199, and revenue per available room (RevPAR) of $137, reflecting a 1.5% decline in RevPAR year-over-year, driven by a 0.9% decline in occupancy and a 0.7% decline in ADR [17][18] - Total revenues grew by 0.2%, supported by a 7.2% increase in non-room revenues, which outperformed RevPAR by nearly 900 basis points [11][18] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $80.4 million, with hotel EBITDA margins at 27%, only 44 basis points lower than the previous year [19][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Urban markets outperformed the overall portfolio, with notable RevPAR growth in Northern California (18.5%), Denver CBD (10.1%), and New York City (4.7%) [18] - Non-government related business transient revenues increased by 5%, while group revenues declined by 3% due to the government shutdown impacting demand [9][10] - Leisure segment revenue grew by 1%, with urban leisure outperforming the portfolio, driven by strong holiday demand [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a strong recovery in San Francisco, with RevPAR growth of 52% in the fourth quarter, supported by various demand segments and events like the Dreamforce conference [8][9] - The overall lodging industry is expected to achieve slightly positive RevPAR growth in 2026, driven by increased leisure demand and ongoing positive trends in non-government business travel [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on urban markets, anticipating that these will continue to outperform the broader industry due to favorable geographic exposure and high-impact capital investments [15][16] - The company plans to continue executing on high-occupancy renovations and conversions, with an average of two conversions per year, including the upcoming Boston conversion to Hilton's Tapestry Collection [12][41] - Capital allocation strategies include opportunistic asset sales and share repurchases, with a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet while driving shareholder value [32][33][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2026, citing potential tailwinds from moderating interest rates and tax cuts, which could positively impact travel demand [13][14] - The company expects the first quarter of 2026 to be the softest due to challenging year-over-year comparisons, with expectations for improved performance in the latter half of the year [25][26] - Management highlighted the importance of urban leisure demand and special events, such as the World Cup, in driving future growth [30][31] Other Important Information - The company successfully addressed all near-term debt maturities and executed refinancing transactions to extend debt maturities through 2028, enhancing financial flexibility [20][21][22] - The company returned $120 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during 2025 [13][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much benefit is expected from the World Cup and easier comps due to the government shutdown? - Management indicated that they expect a balanced contribution from rate and occupancy growth, with specific events like the World Cup contributing approximately 45 basis points to RevPAR growth [30][31] Question: How is capital allocation prioritized between asset sales and share repurchases? - Management stated that they are actively recycling capital from asset sales and share repurchases while maintaining a strong balance sheet, with a focus on balancing near-term opportunities and long-term resilience [32][33] Question: What are the expectations for operating costs and EBITDA margins in 2026? - Management anticipates overall expenses to grow about 3%, with variable expenses at 2% and fixed expenses at 4%, excluding tax benefits [37] Question: What is the expected impact of the Wyndham Boston conversion to Tapestry? - Management believes the conversion will yield a 40% increase in EBITDA, driven by the asset's location and demand drivers, with returns well above 50% relative to incremental capital [78][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter occupancy was 68.7%, average daily rate (ADR) was $199, and revenue per available room (RevPAR) was $137, reflecting a 1.5% decline in RevPAR year-over-year, driven by a 0.9% decline in occupancy and a 0.7% decline in ADR [17][18] - Total revenues grew by 0.2%, supported by a 7.2% increase in non-room revenues, which outperformed RevPAR by nearly 900 basis points [11][18] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $80.4 million, with hotel EBITDA margins at 27%, only 44 basis points behind the previous year [19][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Urban markets outperformed the overall portfolio, with notable RevPAR growth in Northern California (18.5%), Denver CBD (10.1%), and New York City (4.7%) [18] - Non-government related business transient revenues grew by 5%, while group revenues declined by 3% due to the government shutdown impacting demand [9][10] - Leisure segment revenue grew by 1%, with urban leisure outperforming the portfolio, driven by strong holiday demand [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - San Francisco CBD achieved 52% RevPAR growth, benefiting from a strong tech economy and events like the Dreamforce conference [8] - The company expects the lodging industry to achieve slightly positive RevPAR growth in 2026, driven by increased leisure demand and unique events such as the World Cup [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on urban markets, anticipating that these will continue to outperform the broader industry due to favorable geographic exposure and high-impact capital investments [15][16] - Plans include advancing conversions and renovations, with expectations to deliver an average of two conversions per year [12][41] - The company aims to balance capital allocation between asset sales and share repurchases, maintaining a strong balance sheet while pursuing growth opportunities [32][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2026, citing tailwinds from moderating interest rates and tax cuts that could positively impact travel demand [13] - The company acknowledges lingering geopolitical uncertainties but remains constructive on the broader economy [13][14] - Management expects the first quarter of 2026 to be the softest due to difficult year-over-year comparisons, with expectations for stronger contributions in the latter half of the year [25] Other Important Information - The company completed significant refinancing transactions, addressing all debt maturities through 2028 and maintaining a favorable debt maturity profile [21][22] - A total of $120 million was returned to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends during 2025 [13][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much benefit is expected from the World Cup and easier comps due to the government shutdown? - Management indicated that RevPAR growth is expected to be balanced between rate and occupancy, with urban leisure demand anticipated to outperform [28][30] Question: How is capital allocation prioritized between asset sales and share repurchases? - Management stated that they are actively recycling capital from asset sales and share repurchases while maintaining a strong balance sheet [32][33] Question: What are the expectations for operating costs in 2026? - Management expects expenses to grow about 3%, with variable expenses at 2% and fixed expenses at 4% [37] Question: What is the expected impact of the Wyndham Boston conversion to Tapestry? - Management believes there is a 40% upside in EBITDA from the conversion, with favorable demand drivers in the market [78] Question: What percentage of business was government-related in 2025? - In a normalized year, government-related business was about 3%, but it was down approximately 20% in 2025 due to the government shutdown [88]