证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 | [Table_StockAndRank] 旅游综合 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | | 上次评级 看好 | | [Table_Author] 范欣悦 商社行业首席分析师 | 执业编号：S1500521080001 邮 箱：fanxinyue@cindasc.com 陆亚宁 商社行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030003 邮 箱：luyaning@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 26 年元旦假期点评：免税、景区表现靓丽 [Table_Industry] 旅游综合 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 | 2026 年元旦假期综述 4 | | --- | | 国内旅游 4 | | 景区 5 | | 免税 6 | | 出入境游 7 | | 零售 8 | | 投资建议 8 | | 风险提示 9 | | 图 1：我国主要假期日均国内旅游人次及恢复度 4 | ...

2025年12月20日，南京商旅（600250.SH）发布公告称，收购南京黄埔大酒店事项终止。消息公布后四 个交易日，公司股价合计下跌17.32%。12月25日，公司在上证路演中心召开投资者说明会，主要对公 司发展战略进行了强调说明。 南京商旅前身为南纺股份，以服装、纺织、机电、化工等产品的进出口为主营业务，同时拥有南京商厦 运营权。后经跨界并购，公司将南京秦淮风光旅游股份有限公司（下称"秦淮风光"）收入旗下，从而获 得了夫子庙-秦淮风光带游船观光的经营权。 2022年至2024年，南京商旅分别实现营业收入8.22亿元、8.56亿元、7.76亿元；扣非净利润-1.22亿元、 0.31亿元、0.06亿元。2025年前三季度，公司营业收入为5.52亿元，同比减少8.07%；扣非净利润为0.18 亿元，同比下降14%。 进一步分析，南京商旅多个核心业务业绩承压。2024年，公司"进出口贸易"业务收入1.94亿元，同比下 降11.75%；"国内贸易"业务收入1.04亿元，同比下降31.34%；零售百货业务收入0.59亿元，同比下降 49.87%。"旅游服务"业务营收为2.8亿元，虽然同比上升29.39%，但对应营收成 ...

此前，中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"定位明年八大重点任务之首。 在短暂的概念爆炒之后，"犒赏经济"会走出怎样的行情？ 01 尽管概念新鲜，但从其本质来看，犒赏经济概念仍是新消费概念的分支。 在此基调下，"扩内需"势必成为市场的重要议题。 近日，学习时报刊发《何为"犒赏经济"》的文章，提出了一个新名词——"犒赏经济"。 随后，百大集团、德艺文创、广博股份等一众概念股批量直接涨停，有的甚至不到1个月就已接近翻倍。 某种程度上看，犒赏经济和之前的IP经济、谷子经济、悦己经济等情绪消费概念十分类似，但又更进一步。 从官方定义来看，犒赏经济是指消费者在面对工作生活压力或特定的心理需求时，通过购买价格在承受范围内的非必需品或体验服务，以获取即时性愉悦 感、自我确认感和心理疗愈的一种经济活动。 也是因此，相比悦己经济等，犒赏经济的范畴内加入了更多服务性消费。 相比文娱、潮玩，旅游、餐饮，甚至饮料，都可以被纳入"犒赏经济"的范畴。 在生活中也不难发现，越来越多行业开始引入"疗愈""解压"等情绪元素，也开始模仿盲盒、谷子等情绪消费的玩法。 商务部数据显示，2025年年轻人"犒赏类"消费占比明显攀升，95后 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dashiang Co., Ltd. has announced significant personnel changes and plans for an overseas listing, indicating a strategic shift aimed at long-term development and adaptation to evolving retail industry trends [1][5]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - The company has nominated new non-independent directors and appointed a new management team, including Liu Jing as the general manager and several vice general managers [1][2]. - The new management team features a mix of experienced leaders and younger executives, reflecting a strategic balance between stability and innovation [2][3]. - Notable appointments include Lu Weishun, who has extensive experience within the company, and several younger executives who have risen through the ranks, indicating a focus on nurturing internal talent [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Intent - The personnel changes are part of a broader strategy to enhance the company's operational efficiency and adapt to the evolving retail landscape, characterized by a shift towards experiential consumption and personalized services [3][5]. - The planned overseas listing is a key component of the company's internationalization strategy, aimed at improving its global brand image and diversifying its capital operations [5]. - The new management team is expected to drive the company's strategic transformation, leveraging their industry insights and operational expertise to capitalize on emerging market opportunities [5]. Group 3: Company Background - Dashiang Co., Ltd. has evolved from its origins in 1937 to become one of China's largest retail groups, operating multiple business formats including department stores, supermarkets, and electronics chains [4]. - The company has established a strong brand presence with well-known names such as Maikele, Xinmate, and Qiansheng, supported by a robust network of physical stores in key market areas [4]. - Dashiang's solid fundamentals and strong profitability, along with its ownership of prime properties in core business districts, position it well for future growth and value appreciation [5].

Core Insights - Wangfujing achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.43 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 68.16%. For the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit was 1.24 million yuan, down 71.02% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for Q3 2025 and the first three quarters, indicating ongoing challenges in the retail sector [1] - Adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 10.66 billion yuan, 11.20 billion yuan, and 11.64 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 160 million yuan, 260 million yuan, and 330 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Wangfujing is recognized as a benchmark in the domestic retail department store industry, leveraging its substantial industry experience and resources [1] - The company has actively developed its duty-free business since obtaining a duty-free license in 2020, with the opening of the Mannings Wangfujing offshore duty-free port in January 2023 [1] Group 3: Policy Impact - A recent notification from the Ministry of Finance and other departments aims to enhance duty-free store policies to stimulate consumption, which is expected to benefit the company [1] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the anticipated policy-driven growth in the duty-free sector [1]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic environment shows a recovery in upstream sectors, while midstream sectors exhibit a mixed recovery, with the coal industry maintaining stability and the petrochemical sector continuing to face challenges [9] - The manufacturing sector, particularly in the new energy chain, is showing improvement, with demand for machinery and automotive sectors gradually recovering [9] - Consumer sectors are experiencing a divergence, with home appliances and food and beverage sectors showing positive trends, while the pharmaceutical sector faces increasing price pressures [9] Industry and Company Analysis Textile and Apparel Industry - Adidas reported a 12% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, with management raising the full-year guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected performance [10][11] - The company achieved a net profit of €485 million in Q3, with all regions and channels showing double-digit growth, except for North America, which was impacted by a decline in accessory sales [10][11] - The management has adjusted the full-year revenue growth expectation to approximately 9%, with an operating profit target raised to about €2 billion [10][11] Agricultural Chemicals Industry - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic production expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to increase by 9.1% [12][13] - The average price of potassium chloride in October was reported at ¥3228 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [12] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate is rising, with production capacity reaching 5.92 million tons per year, and prices increasing by 7% in October [13] Livestock and Agriculture - The investment strategy for November 2025 recommends focusing on Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks, with expectations for beef prices to accelerate [17] - The report highlights a potential turning point in the domestic beef cycle, with optimism for both domestic and international markets [17] - The prices of live pigs and poultry are showing upward trends, with live pig prices increasing by 6% month-on-month [18] Medical Devices - Mindray Medical's international business is growing steadily, with Q3 revenue expected to accelerate compared to Q2 [26] - The company reported a revenue of ¥258.34 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of ¥75.70 billion, despite facing price pressures in the domestic market [26][27] - The company is focusing on enhancing its global supply chain and local production capabilities, with international revenue accounting for over 50% of total revenue [26] Pharmaceutical Industry - The report on Baicheng Pharmaceutical indicates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to intensified competition in the generic drug market [28][29] - The company is transitioning towards innovative drug development, with over 15 projects in the pipeline, focusing on neurology, autoimmune diseases, and oncology [29] - The production capacity utilization is expected to improve as the company secures contracts for multiple drug varieties [29] Orthopedic Devices - Weigao Orthopedics reported a 10% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by sales model integration and refined management practices [31] - The company is focusing on optimizing its sales structure and enhancing clinical service levels, which has led to increased revenue and volume across multiple product lines [31][32] - The net profit margin has improved significantly, reflecting effective cost control and operational efficiency [32]

Core Viewpoint - AEON, a Japanese retail group, plans to establish a sales partnership with BYD by 2025, aiming to enhance the sales of BYD electric vehicles in Japan [1] Group 1: Partnership and Sales Strategy - AEON will set up sales points for BYD electric vehicles in approximately 30 commercial facilities and department stores across Japan [1] - The pricing strategy will allow consumers to purchase a BYD electric vehicle starting at around 2 million yen (approximately 94,000 RMB) through various discount and promotional incentives [1] Group 2: Market Performance - BYD has experienced rapid growth in the Japanese market, with sales reaching 802 units in September, representing a year-on-year increase of about three times [1] - BYD's sales accounted for approximately 20% of the total imported pure electric vehicle sales in Japan for that month [1] - The company has already opened over 40 stores in Japan [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.48% to 25,247.10 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 4.05% to 5,760.38 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreasing by 2.67% to 9,011.97 points [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened at 25,851.94 points, down 36.57 points, and continued to decline throughout the trading session, closing down 641.41 points with a total turnover exceeding 314.6 billion HKD [1] - The southbound trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect) saw a net inflow of over 6.3 billion HKD [1] Sector Performance - Most sectors experienced declines, with notable drops in biotechnology, technology, new energy vehicles, insurance, coal, new consumption, lithium batteries, and chips [1] - Retail and department store stocks showed some resilience, with many of them rising [1] - Banking and gaming stocks exhibited mixed performance, with some gaining while others fell [1] Individual Stock Movements - Meituan decreased by 4.30%, while Zhongyu Energy surged by 25.94% [1] - Other notable movements included: - Yao Cai Securities Financial down 3.53% - China Mobile down 0.47% - Alibaba down 4.22% with a turnover exceeding 20.7 billion HKD - Xiaomi Group down 3.65% with a turnover exceeding 12.2 billion HKD - SMIC down 6.50% with a turnover exceeding 11.6 billion HKD [1]

Market Overview - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rose, driven by Google's stock surge, while the Dow Jones fell slightly [2] - Google shares increased by 9.1% following a favorable court ruling, while Apple rose by 3.8% [2] - Tesla and Amazon saw minor gains, while Nvidia experienced a slight decline [2] Labor Market Data - U.S. job openings fell for the second consecutive month, decreasing from 7.36 million to 7.18 million [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased from 93% to 95% [5] - The labor market's weakening is influencing the Fed's potential policy shift, with upcoming employment reports being crucial for decision-making [5] Bond Market - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.22% [6] - The Fed's Beige Book indicated little change in economic activity and employment levels since July [6] Individual Stock Performances - Macy's stock surged nearly 21% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 results and raising its full-year outlook [7] - Campbell Soup Company shares rose by 7.2% despite a decline in sales, as its Q4 earnings exceeded Wall Street expectations [8] Commodity Prices - International oil prices dropped, with WTI crude falling to $63.97 per barrel and Brent crude to $67.60 per barrel [8] - Gold prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold futures rising to $3,593.20 per ounce [9]

Core Viewpoint - Dongbai Group demonstrates resilience and innovation in the retail sector amidst structural adjustments and rapid changes in consumer trends, achieving stable growth through a dual-driven strategy of "commercial retail + warehousing logistics" [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Dongbai Group reported operating revenue of 929 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.11% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring items, reached 64.89 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.14% [1] Group 2: Retail Business Strategy - The commercial retail segment generated 791 million yuan in revenue, remaining stable compared to the previous year, supported by the deepening of the first-store economy and innovations in consumer scenarios [2] - Dongbai Group introduced 201 new brands in the first half, including 67 first-store brands, enhancing its core store brand renewal [2] - The Dongbai Center and Lanzhou Center achieved significant sales rankings, with 23 brands in the Dongbai Center entering the national TOP10 and 169 brands ranking first in Fujian Province [2] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The Fuzhou Liqiao Ancient Street project continues to drive growth, with the second phase introducing 37 new brands and achieving over 11 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 30.83% [3] Group 4: Digital Transformation and Asset-Light Model - Dongbai Group's membership system surpassed 4.3 million members by the end of June, a 5.19% increase from the end of 2024, enhancing member engagement through over 150 exclusive events [4] - The company is advancing its asset-light transformation, exemplified by a partnership with Gansu New Investment Commercial Management Company for the "New Investment Era Center" project, covering an area of approximately 70,000 square meters [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Dongbai Group aims to continue optimizing operational efficiency and customer experience through light asset expansion, first-store economy deepening, scenario-based operations, and a digital membership system, while enhancing core competitiveness for high-quality development [5]