9月23日，已在A股上市的福建万辰集团正式向香港交易所提交上市申请，计划搭建"A+H"双平台融资结构。 作为过去几年增长最快的消费赛道之一，量贩零食在经历一轮规模扩张后，行业竞争也逐渐走向深水区。供应链的稳定性、模式的可持续性、经营效率等 都是下半场角逐的胜负手。 万辰集团此前就是零食量贩赛道惟一上市企业，此时递表港交所，不仅暗含了引领行业变革发展的决心，也折射出中国消费市场一个显著的趋势——消费 者越来越看重"品质与价格的平衡"，"质价比"正成为品牌绕不开的关键词。 近年来，中国消费者的心态出现明显变化。相比过去盲目追捧大牌，或者单纯追求低价，越来越多人开始更加理性地寻找"品质好、价格合适"的商品。 "硬折扣"并不是一个新概念。早在几十年前，德国的ALDI和LIDL就凭借这一模式在欧洲市场取得成功，之后美国的Costco也通过会员制仓储超市将其推 向高峰。这些企业的共同经验可以总结为几点： 首先，供应链是重中之重。通过大规模采购、精简商品种类、减少中间环节，企业可以彻底从供应链层面优化成本结构。 其次，越来越多的企业依靠于自有品牌提升利润，通过开发高质量的自有品牌产品，既控制品质，也提高利润，并通过尽可能压 ...

智通财经记者 | 李烨 智通财经编辑 | 牙韩翔 河南的好想来加盟商陈姚有点苦恼。 截至今年6月30日，好想来母公司万辰集团旗下已经拥有超过15000家加盟店。9月23日，万辰集团正式向港交所递表。智通财经自万辰集团招股书看到，仅 是2023年12月至2024年12月，万辰集团旗下加盟门店数量就从4560家跃升至14098家，规模增长超3倍。 智通财经自公开信息看到，万辰集团成立于2011年，早期它的主营业务是金针菇、蟹味菇等食用菌的工厂化培育，在福建漳州和江苏南京建有生产基地， 2021年，公司曾在深交所创业板上市。但到了眼下，万辰集团最为人熟知的业务是零食量贩，拥有品牌"好想来"与"老婆大人"，数量上以"好想来"为主。 零食量贩店的扩张以加盟为主，万辰集团也不例外。智通财经查阅招股书看到，至2025年6月末，万辰集团超1.5万家门店中，加盟店占比达99%以上，直营 门店只有90家。 而从其商业模式来说，向加盟商销售商品是主要收入来源，今年上半年，万辰集团向加盟商销售产品收入达218亿元，同比增长112.56%，占总营收的 96.6%。 这意味着，加盟店的数量直接决定了万辰集团未来的业绩增量，但随着规模的扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wanchen Group, the parent company of "Haoxianglai," has submitted an application for a public listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for expanding its store network, enhancing product offerings, improving logistics efficiency, and upgrading digital infrastructure [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Wanchen Group operates its snack business primarily under the "Haoxianglai" brand, with a total of 15,365 snack and beverage stores across 29 provinces and regions in China as of June 2025, of which 99% are franchise stores [1][4]. - The company plans to increase its store count from 14,098 at the end of 2024 to an average of 7 new stores per day in the first half of 2025 [1][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of August 31, 2025, Wanchen Group has accumulated over 150 million registered members, supporting its growth trajectory [2][4]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 22.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.89%, while net profit surged to 472 million yuan, reflecting a staggering increase of over 50,000% [2][6]. - The snack wholesale business generated 22.345 billion yuan in revenue during the same period, marking a 109.33% year-on-year growth [6]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Wanchen Group is positioned as a leading player in the snack retail market, with its "Haoxianglai" brand ranking first in China's snack and beverage retail sector by gross merchandise volume (GMV) as of 2024 [4][6]. - The company has diversified its product offerings across 12 core categories, including beverages, dairy products, snacks, and convenience foods, with over 2,000 SKUs to meet diverse consumer needs [5][6]. - The planned dual listing (A+H) is expected to strengthen the company's market position and expand its successful discount model into broader fast-moving consumer goods markets [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing a period of volatility, with liquidity and market sentiment being key factors influencing its performance [2][4] - Recent data indicates that financing activity is approaching historical highs, with private equity fund registrations returning to mid-July levels and new public fund issuance maintaining around 20 billion [2][4] - The market's ability to break through its current plateau will depend on the continued inflow of public and foreign investment funds [2][4] Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - Since 2024, the structure of credit floating rate bonds has adjusted, with a notable increase in corporate issuances and a contraction in asset-backed securities (ABS) [3] - Floating rate bonds are characterized by their interest rates that follow benchmark rates, providing a defensive advantage, especially during periods of rising rates [3] - The performance of floating rate bonds has lagged behind fixed rate bonds in recent years, suggesting that better investment opportunities may arise when the funding environment tightens [3] Group 3: Real Estate and Construction - In the third week of September, both new and second-hand housing markets showed signs of recovery, particularly in first-tier cities following policy relaxations [4][16] - The construction sector is witnessing an increase in industrial activity, with freight volumes remaining high and coal consumption showing a downward trend [4] - The demand for cement remains stable, while supply is at low levels, indicating a potential for price recovery in the construction materials market [4] Group 4: Energy and New Energy Equipment - In August 2025, China's inverter exports reached 6.29 billion, with a notable demand driven by energy transitions in India and subsidy plans in Australia [7] - The long-term demand for inverters is expected to be supported by rising electricity prices and increased installations of renewable energy sources [7] - The report recommends leading companies in the sector, such as Sungrow Power Supply and DeYe Shares, as having strong performance support [7] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Despite August being a traditional off-peak season for e-commerce and express delivery, the industry is experiencing a rebound in demand due to competitive pressures [8] - The report highlights a marginal slowdown in package volumes, but anticipates a price increase as the peak season approaches, which could enhance profitability [8] - Recommended companies in the logistics sector include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on those benefiting from price increases and strong overseas growth [8] Group 6: Consumer Goods and Retail - The snack retail sector is evolving from rapid expansion to consolidation, with new retail formats emerging in response to changing consumer preferences [13] - The report discusses the competitive landscape of various retail formats, including discount stores and community shops, and their impact on traditional retail channels [13] - Companies like Youyou Foods are highlighted for their strategic positioning in the market, aiming for significant revenue growth through innovative product offerings [13] Group 7: Construction Materials - The report discusses the outlook for specialty electronic fabrics, driven by trends in AI and high-end PCB materials [14] - The demand for low thermal expansion and high-performance materials is expected to grow, with recommendations for companies like China Jushi and China National Materials [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of product upgrades in meeting the evolving needs of the electronics industry [14] Group 8: Company Ratings and Recommendations - New Hongji Real Estate has been rated "Buy" with a target price of 111.51 HKD, supported by its significant land reserves and upcoming project deliveries [17] - Youyou Foods has also received a "Buy" rating with a target price of 15.60 CNY, reflecting its strong market position in the snack sector [19] - The report indicates a positive outlook for companies with robust growth strategies and market adaptability [19]

最近一段时间,知名量贩零食品牌"好想来",在济南连续关闭3家门店。据其母公司万辰集团财报显示,这 个曾经创造一年开店近万家"神话"的量贩零食超市,今年开店速度已大幅度放缓。而这并不是个例,量贩 类零食品牌是否要度过高速发展期了?齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者对此进行了调查。 文/片 记者 李梦瑶 见习记者 冯子芯 济南报道 半年闭店259家 扩张速度已放缓 以低价低利润模式 近日,记者实地探访发现,济南多家"好想来"零食门店已暂停营业。位于文化西路的好想来(大润发店)大 门紧锁,店内设备尽数撤走,门上贴有"装修升级,暂停营业"的告示,但在其官方小程序中已无法查询到该店 信息。 据周边商家透露,该店早在8月28日便已撤出,"听说这里房租太高,打算搬到其他地方去。" 无独有偶,二七南路的"好想来"门店目前处于停业状态；县东巷店招牌已经摘了下来,只剩下标志性的红 色门框。 针对闭店情况,济南片区负责人表示,济南店铺密度过高,部分门店选择搬迁,并称搬迁目的地可能为烟台和 济南章丘。 实际上这并不是个例。"好想来"母公司万辰集团2025年中报显示,今年上半年,其闭店数量已经超过了去 年全年,达到259家。 不仅如此,万辰集团的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, predicting a relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 22.583 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 106.89%. The net profit attributable to the parent company, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, reached 451 million yuan, a staggering increase of 14,722.34% [5][6]. - The snack wholesale business continues to grow significantly, with revenue doubling year-on-year. The snack wholesale segment generated 22.345 billion yuan in revenue, a 109.33% increase compared to the previous year [5][6]. - The company has consolidated its brands under "Haoxianglai," which is the first snack wholesale chain in the industry to exceed 10,000 stores. As of the end of the reporting period, the company operated 15,365 stores across 29 provinces, with a net addition of 1,169 stores during the period [5][6]. - The company has a strong presence in East China, with 8,727 stores, accounting for 56.8% of the total store count. This strategic focus on East China is expected to enhance the overall profitability of the company [5][6]. - The gross margin for the wholesale business improved to 11.49%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 3.85%, up 2.53 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 5.84 yuan, 9.08 yuan, and 10.96 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Based on the closing price of 171.55 yuan on September 19, the corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 29.35, 18.90, and 15.65 [6][7]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 52.373 billion yuan in 2025, 63.895 billion yuan in 2026, and 71.562 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 62.00%, 22.00%, and 12.00% respectively [7][8]. - The net profit is projected to reach 1.097 billion yuan in 2025, 1.703 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.057 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 273.58%, 55.33%, and 20.75% respectively [7][8]. Key Financial Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the company reported a net asset value per share of 8.65 yuan, a diluted return on equity (ROE) of 29.07%, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.95% [2][5]. - The company has maintained a strong cash flow, with operating cash flow per share at 6.92 yuan [2]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at 28.039 billion yuan, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 19.84 [1][2].

本文转自【齐鲁晚报】； 近日，知名量贩零食品牌"好想来"，在济南连续关闭3家门店。据其母公司万辰集团财报显示，这个三年内开出近万家门店的量贩零食超市，今年一年， 开店速度已大幅度放缓。而这似乎并非个例，量贩类零食业是否要度过高速发展期了？记者对此展开了调查。 济南多家"好想来"停业 负责人：店铺密度过高 近日，记者实地探访发现，济南多家"好想来"零食门店已暂停营业。位于文化西路的"好想来"（大润发店）大门紧锁，店内设备尽数撤走，门上仅贴 有"装修升级，暂停营业"的告示，但在其官方小程序中已无法查询到该店信息。 据周边商家透露，该店早在8月28日便已撤出，"听说这里房租太高，打算搬到其他地方去"。 无独有偶，二七南路的"好想来"门店目前处于停业状态；县东巷店招牌已经摘了下来，只剩下标志性的红色门框。 县东巷店已撤店 针对闭店情况，济南片区负责人表示，济南店铺密度过高，部分门店选择搬迁，搬迁目的地可能为烟台和章丘。 实际上这并不是个例，"好想来"母公司万辰集团（300972.SZ）2025年中财报显示，今年上半年，其闭店数量已经超过了去年全年，达到了259家。不仅如 此，其开店速度也在大幅降低，新增门店数从202 ...

Core Insights - The competition among domestic snack collection stores has intensified, with leading companies looking to expand overseas due to market saturation in China [1] - Real-world case studies reveal the challenges and lessons learned from international expansion, highlighting the importance of cultural understanding and operational adjustments [1] Market Selection: Hidden Barriers - Southeast Asia's market presents cognitive traps, such as overlooking local dietary restrictions, which can lead to significant losses [2] - Consumer habits vary greatly; adapting store hours to local preferences can increase foot traffic and sales [2] - Misjudging distribution channels can result in poor product reception; successful strategies include creating engaging customer experiences [2] Preparation Phase: Assumptions and Reactions - Cultural misunderstandings in product selection can lead to inventory losses; adjusting product offerings based on local tastes is crucial [3] - Supply chain issues, particularly in the final delivery phase, can severely impact sales; establishing safety stock and emergency logistics is essential [3] Operational Insights: Practical Wisdom - Innovative inventory management techniques can significantly reduce waste and enhance sales [5] - Pricing strategies must be tailored to local markets, as consumer sensitivity can vary widely [6] - Effective human resource management requires understanding local cultural norms to improve employee engagement and reduce theft [6] Expansion Challenges: The Temptation of Rapid Growth - Rapid expansion without adequate infrastructure can lead to operational inefficiencies and reduced profitability [7] - Franchise models must be adapted to local contexts to build trust and ensure effective management [7] - Crisis situations can lead to unexpected opportunities, such as diversifying sales channels through vending machines [7] Risk Areas: Learning from Mistakes - Compliance with local regulations is critical; failing to secure necessary certifications can result in significant financial losses [8] - Supplier management must address potential issues such as product quality and pricing discrepancies [8] - Cultural sensitivities must be respected to avoid public backlash and legal issues [8] Ultimate Insight: Globalization as Reconstruction - Successful international brands emphasize local identity and consumer needs rather than merely replicating their home market strategies [9] - Companies that thrive in foreign markets leverage local resources and consumer insights to create unique value propositions [9] - A mindset shift from being an "exporter" to a "learner" is essential for successful globalization [9]

Summary of the Conference Call for Wancheng Group Industry Overview - The snack retail industry exhibits significant head effect, with leading brands like "Ling Shi Hen Mang" and "Zhao Yi Ming" merging, and Wancheng Group integrating its brands, leading to rapid store expansion and improved supply chain efficiency [2][4] - The snack retail sector is large, with specialty stores (including snack retail) and e-commerce channels showing strong performance, achieving double-digit compound growth over the past five years [2][7] Key Points and Arguments - **Growth Drivers for Wancheng Group**: - Scale effect from increased store numbers enhancing supply chain efficiency [2][6] - Cost control through reducing intermediaries and lowering markup rates [2][6] - Market demand driven by economic downturn, with consumers seeking affordable snacks (lipstick effect) [2][6] - **Competitive Landscape**: - The competition is expected to solidify, with leading brands maintaining their advantage and expanding store numbers, potentially reaching 46,000 to 56,000 stores [4][13] - The gap between leading brands and smaller brands is widening, with leading brands rapidly increasing their store counts to 5,000-6,000, while smaller brands lag behind [5][13] - **Store Performance and Profitability**: - Wancheng Group's stores have a gross margin of approximately 10-11%, while competitors like "Ming Ming" have lower margins of 7-8% [8][18] - The company’s net profit is lower than industry leader "Ming Ming" due to high minority equity ratios and significant employee stock incentive costs [18] - **Future Growth Projections**: - Wancheng Group's snack retail business revenue is projected to reach 50.6 billion RMB, 60.2 billion RMB, and 68.6 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with a gradual increase in gross margin [4][23] - The company anticipates a net profit margin of around 5% in the coming years, driven by scale effects and cost optimization [19][23] Additional Important Insights - **Store Experience and Franchise Appeal**: - Snack retail stores enhance shopping experience through well-designed environments and a wide variety of products, making them attractive to franchisees [9][11] - Franchisees can expect quick returns on investment, with high turnover rates and low entry barriers [11] - **Supplier Relationships**: - Snack retail stores maintain good relationships with upstream suppliers, with short accounts payable turnover days (around 20 days), enhancing cash flow [12] - The absence of entry fees and low sales expense ratios help suppliers improve their net profit levels [12] - **Market Trends and Challenges**: - The industry is shifting towards full-category supermarkets to increase SKU variety and attract more consumers [20] - Companies need to balance product selection for sales velocity and profitability to avoid lowering efficiency [20] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Based on PEG valuation methods, a target price of 232.88 RMB per share is suggested, indicating a potential upside of 20%-30% from current prices [26]

Group 1 - The core idea of value investing is to identify discrepancies between value and price, focusing on the future discounted value compared to current prices [1][2] - Value investment opportunities often arise from three main areas: uncertain futures, long-term poor pricing, and lesser-known sectors [1][7] Group 2 - Uncertainty in predicting future business trends creates significant discrepancies between future commercial values and current prices, making it challenging for investors [2][3] - Long-term poor pricing can lead to value investment opportunities, especially when an asset has not generated profits for a long time, as seen in the case of domestic bank stocks in 2023-2024 [5][6] - Lesser-known sectors tend to present more value investment opportunities because they attract less attention, leading to potential mispricing [6][7]