上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 21 日 盐津铺子 (002847) ——魔芋引领收入增长 控费提效驱动扣非利润率改善 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 73.96 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 99.98/36.62 | | 市净率 | 10.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.16 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 18,174 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,766.21/11,926.74 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.98 | | 资产负债率% | 45.95 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 273/246 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-20 09-20 10-20 11-20 12-20 01-20 02-20 03-20 04-20 ...

2025 年 8 月 12 日公司发布公告，公司拟以现金方式收购子公司南京万 优商业管理有限公司 49%股权。 投资要点: | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/08/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 万辰集团 | -1.9% | -0.7% | 621.5% | | 沪深 300 | 4.6% | 7.6% | 25.7% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/08/15 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 154.74 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 22.55-199.90 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 29,031.55 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 25,291.24 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 18,761.51 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 16,344.34 | | 日均成交额（百万） | | | 324.72 | | 近一月换手（%） | | | 1.55 | | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 刘洁铭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and distribution channels, despite facing challenges in profit margins and traditional sales channels [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit were 7.131 billion and 849 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 4.79% and 5.82% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue and net profit were 2.374 billion and 223 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.99% but a decline in net profit by 24.79% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit dropped to 1.571 billion and 77 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 13.76% and 67.88% [1]. Product Performance - Key products showed robust growth, with revenue from sunflower seeds, nuts, and other products reaching 4.381 billion, 1.923 billion, and 773 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.60%, 9.74%, and 8.04% [1]. - The company is focusing on establishing its brand in the sunflower seed market and has launched new products like "Da Shou" peanuts, which have seen rapid sales growth [1]. - The high-end sunflower seed product "Kuaizhen" is expanding through new channels such as high-end membership stores and boutique supermarkets [1]. Channel Development - New channels such as volume sales and e-commerce are growing rapidly, while traditional channels are under pressure [2]. - In 2024, revenue from southern, northern, eastern regions, e-commerce, and overseas markets were 2.266 billion, 1.343 billion, 2.121 billion, 779 million, and 569 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.88%, -3.25%, 9.47%, 8.86%, and 10.28%, respectively [2]. - The number of distributors decreased by 99 to 1,380, but average distributor income increased by 6% to 4.11 million yuan per distributor [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin and net margin improved by 2.02 and 0.12 percentage points to 28.78% and 11.92%, respectively, in 2024 [3]. - In Q4 2024, due to rising raw material prices, the overall cost increased as the company utilized both reserve and newly procured raw materials [3]. - For Q1 2025, gross margin and net margin decreased to 19.47% and 4.93%, with changes in expense ratios reflecting a mixed trend [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.4 billion, 7.8 billion, and 8.2 billion yuan in 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 6%, and 5% [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 720 million, 850 million, and 920 million yuan, with a projected year-on-year decline of 15% in 2025, followed by increases in subsequent years [4]. - The company aims to enhance business growth quality and maintain a "buy" rating based on its strategic initiatives [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing pressure on its main business sales, but the development of new retail channels shows promising results, leading to a maintained "buy" rating [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 450 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 30 million yuan, down 58.3% year-on-year [2]. - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 160 million yuan (-50 million), 180 million yuan (-30 million), and 200 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4.9%, 14.5%, and 10.0% respectively [2]. Product Performance - Sales of coconut juice and canned fruit are under pressure, with coconut juice revenue at 230 million yuan (down 14.6% year-on-year) and canned fruit revenue at 160 million yuan (down 25.5% year-on-year) [3]. - The company plans to focus on upgrading the formula and packaging of canned fruit and expanding consumption scenarios, while also pushing coconut juice into snack wholesale channels [3]. Channel Analysis - Traditional channels are experiencing significant decline due to the rapid development of new retail channels, which are capturing demand from offline traditional supermarkets [4]. - The company is actively optimizing traditional channel outlets and has established partnerships with leading snack specialty chains, achieving revenue of 46.446 million yuan in Q1 2025 from snack wholesale channels, an increase of 6.149 million yuan from Q4 2024 [4]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin decreased by 7.32 percentage points to 31.38% in Q1 2025, attributed to rising raw material prices and lower margins from snack specialty channels [4]. - The net profit margin fell by 7.27 percentage points to 7.63% due to increased expense ratios across various categories [4].