策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 3 月 1 日 策略周报 中东地缘冲突升级，节奏与影响 A 股短期或受地缘政治波动及避险情绪干扰，但外部冲击幅度有限，关注资 源品及 AI 国产算力方向。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 | 观点回顾 4 | | --- | | 市场热点聚焦 5 | | 中观行业与景气 8 | | 一周市场总览、组合表现及热点追踪 11 | | 风险提示 13 | (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300 ...

量化周报 1． 资产配置月报 202602：如何衡量黄金的交 易拥挤度？-2026/02/06 2． 量化大势研判 202602：市场△gf 继续保持 扩张-2026/02/04 3． 量化周报：流动性转为下行趋势- 2026/02/01 4． 社融预测月报：2026 年 1 月社融预测： 74432 亿元-2026/02/01 5． 量化专题报告：从基金视角把握"主题" 到"主线"的机会-2026/01/29 市场再次触及阻力线 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 [Table_Author] | 叶尔乐 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110059 | | | yeerle@glms.com.cn | 邮箱： | | 关舒丹 | 分析师 | | 执业证书： S0590525110060 | | | guanshudan@glms.com.cn | 邮箱： | | 祝子涵 | 分析师 | | 执业证书： S0590525110061 | | | zhuzihan@glms.com.cn | 邮箱： | | 裴钰琪 | 研究助理 | | ...

持续关注 AI Infra 及商业航天 计算机周观察 20260301 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 本篇报告梳理了过去一周科技相关热点，建议持续关注 AI Infra 及商业航天。 OpenAI 完成新一轮融资估值达到 7300 亿美元；英伟达发布 FY26Q4 业绩，营 收与利润创历史新高，数据中心贡献超九成；SpaceX 正加快推进史上最大规 模 IPO 计划，预计估值将达到 1.75 万亿美元；中国 Token 调用量首超美国， 算力云服务是最确定方向。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 285 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4529.7 | 3.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 4022.3 | 3.8 | 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -2.1 2.7 11.0 相对表现 -2.2 -4.7 -7.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Mar/25 Jun/25 Oct/25 Jan/ ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][20]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the end-cloud flywheel driven by the iteration of AI models, highlighting that the marketing of domestic AI large models has significantly increased user scale and call frequency since the beginning of the year [2]. - The demand for cloud computing power is driven by user scale, call frequency, and complexity of tasks, leading to a feedback loop that enhances model upgrades and increases cloud computing demand [2]. - The market for end-side AI products, such as AI glasses and intelligent robots, is rapidly evolving, with significant unmet demand for capable AI agents, suggesting new market opportunities [2][3]. - The upcoming release of the Qianwen AI glasses and other AI products is expected to drive growth in the AI glasses industry, with global shipments projected to exceed 23.687 million units by 2026 [3]. - The NVIDIA GTC conference is anticipated to showcase advancements in AI technology, with a focus on inference computing, indicating a growing demand in the computing power supply chain [4]. Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Power - The report outlines that the demand for cloud computing power is a function of user scale, call frequency, and task complexity, which has been positively impacted by the marketing of AI large models [2]. End-Side AI Products - The report notes the emergence of various end-side AI products and the public's expectation for intelligent AI agents, indicating a significant market opportunity that remains largely unmet [2]. AI Glasses Market - The report highlights the upcoming launch of Qianwen AI glasses and predicts a significant growth trajectory for the smart glasses market, with expected shipments in China to surpass 4.915 million units by 2026 [3]. Computing Power Supply Chain - The report mentions the upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference, which is expected to present new developments in AI technology and computing power solutions, reinforcing the positive outlook for the computing power supply chain [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the escalation of the Middle - East situation and AI panic trading dragged down the US stocks, with the three major indices falling and significant sectoral differentiation. The market has partially priced in the escalation of the Middle - East situation in advance, and defensive assets such as gold, military, energy, and utilities are better than elastic assets. The AI panic trading is hard to end, and the market is chasing "HALO" assets [7]. - The trading trend of technology contraction (upstream hardware > mid - stream cloud computing > downstream application software) has been the main trading line in the US stocks since last November. The AI panic trading has affected various industries, including traditional industries and network security stocks [11]. - After about 80% of the US stock earnings reports have been disclosed, the geopolitical situation may become the dominant factor in the short - term. The 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support for the Nasdaq [12]. - In the short - term, it is recommended to maintain a relatively defensive stance (military and energy) due to potential variables in the Middle - East situation and the crowded and fragile market structure of US stocks. In the long - term, US stock investment should return to fundamental endogenous factors, and hardware and "HALO" assets are favored [13]. - After the holiday, Chinese - funded stocks had a good start, with prominent sectoral differentiation. The trading line is mainly around the "escalation of the Middle - East situation" and "AI panic trading". A - shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks this week, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of defensive sectors in the short - term and keep a balanced allocation of technology and physical cycles in Chinese - funded stocks [14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs US Stocks - **Overall Market Performance**: This week, the "escalation of the Middle - East situation" and "AI panic trading" dragged down the US stocks, with the three major indices falling and sectoral differentiation. Defensive assets such as utilities, materials, and energy led the gains, and the "HALO" trading became the main trading line [3][7]. - **AI Panic Trading**: The AI panic trading is hard to end in the short - term. It has spread from software to industries such as real - estate agencies, wealth management, and insurance agencies in the equity market. In the credit market, the high - yield spread of US technology stocks has significantly increased. Since last November, the trading trend of technology contraction has been the main line, and various AI - related events have continuously affected the market [9][11]. - **Earnings Reports and Geopolitical Impact**: About 80% of the US stock earnings reports have been disclosed. Referring to the experience of the past three years, the 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support for the Nasdaq. In the short - term, the geopolitical situation may be the dominant factor [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, maintain a relatively defensive stance (military and energy) due to potential variables in the Middle - East situation and the fragile market structure. In the long - term, US stock investment should return to fundamental endogenous factors, and hardware and "HALO" assets are favored [13]. Chinese - Funded Stocks - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, Chinese - funded stocks had a good start, with prominent sectoral differentiation. The trading line is mainly around the "escalation of the Middle - East situation" (leading sectors: non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and military) and "AI panic trading" (leading sectors: upstream hardware of AI and North American power export chain). A - shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks this week [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, maintain a balanced allocation of defensive sectors (energy, military, non - ferrous metals, etc.) due to potential geopolitical variables. Keep a balanced allocation of technology and physical cycles in Chinese - funded stocks, with the technology contraction (upstream infrastructure (domestic and foreign demand chains) > mid - stream cloud computing > downstream application software) [14].

"HALO"概念的背后：对 AI 的冷静认知 本周英伟达业绩超预期但股价大幅下行，去年 11 月以来 EPS 与股价走势的背离仍在延续，指向市场对于 AI 颠覆的担 忧仍在持续。这一现象的原因可能和 2022 年国内新能源相关资产的走弱相似性：彼时国内新能源资本开支仍在上升 且景气度较高，但 A 股整体 ROE 进一步走低，企业转型新能源增多，供给格局的恶化担忧让资本市场不再定价新能源 相关资产景气，转而定价产业矛盾激化的稳定能源资产（煤炭、火电）。类似的情况正在美国出现，科技巨头资本开支 仍在提升但中小企业盈利能力持续恶化，AI 并没有带来下游收入的提升，更多是大型企业的降本和切蛋糕的行为，这 就无法像科网泡沫时期由于应用的收入增长以支撑市场对于全产业链进行成长定价，但企业本身的资本开支会持续。 投资者的关注点一方面转向 AI 拉动的基础设施和资源品领域；一方面开始担忧 AI 对于整个高附加值+轻资产行业的 负面影响，同时随着"HALO"概念的提出，不易被 AI 取代的领域也成为了担忧下的避风港。今年以来美股重资产组 合表现显著强于轻资产组合，同时美股中能源、材料、工业、公用事业板块在 25Q4 有明显超预 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 电子 周观点：关注 LPU——AI 推理的下半场投资机遇 LPU：关注 AI 推理的下半场投资机遇。英伟达与 AI 芯片初创公司 Groq 达成协议，斥资 200 亿美金获取其技术非独家许可并吸纳其核心团队。 Groq 专门设计了 LPU，LPU 运行大型语言模型（LLMs）及其他主流模型 的速度显著更快，在架构层面，从能源效率上比 GPU 高出多达 10 倍。LPU 集成了数百兆片上 SRAM 作为主权重存储器（而非缓存），显著降低了访 问延迟。我们认为，LPU 的应用有望带动 SRAM 的需求提升。从供电技术 来看，背面供电网络（BPDN）直接从晶圆下方向前沿晶体管供电，这种架 构变革能够提升处理器性能、大幅降低功率损耗并提高电源效率，嵌埋PCB 不仅让结构更小，更重要的是提供了寄生稳定、可预测的电气环境，这对 于超大电流瞬间负载的稳定性至关重要，AI 将带动嵌埋 PCB 需求，此外， 我们认为 LPU PCB 层数有望显著提升，建议关注 PCB 厂商及上游材料。 英伟达指引超预期，重视 AI 硬件板块投资机会。公司 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 电子 周观点：关注 LPU——AI 推理的下半场投资机遇 LPU：关注 AI 推理的下半场投资机遇。英伟达与 AI 芯片初创公司 Groq 达成协议，斥资 200 亿美金获取其技术非独家许可并吸纳其核心团队。 Groq 专门设计了 LPU，LPU 运行大型语言模型（LLMs）及其他主流模型 的速度显著更快，在架构层面，从能源效率上比 GPU 高出多达 10 倍。LPU 集成了数百兆片上 SRAM 作为主权重存储器（而非缓存），显著降低了访 问延迟。我们认为，LPU 的应用有望带动 SRAM 的需求提升。从供电技术 来看，背面供电网络（BPDN）直接从晶圆下方向前沿晶体管供电，这种架 构变革能够提升处理器性能、大幅降低功率损耗并提高电源效率，嵌埋PCB 不仅让结构更小，更重要的是提供了寄生稳定、可预测的电气环境，这对 于超大电流瞬间负载的稳定性至关重要，AI 将带动嵌埋 PCB 需求，此外， 我们认为 LPU PCB 层数有望显著提升，建议关注 PCB 厂商及上游材料。 英伟达指引超预期，重视 AI 硬件板块投资机会。公司 ...

全球 HALO 交易： "两会"窗口如何攻守兼备？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 本周科技与资源的双线行情，本质上是同一套市场逻辑的"一体两面"——前者对应 "AI 带动算力与电力需求扩张、国产替代加速"的产业景气逻辑，后者对应"PPI 回 升、反内卷政策落地、全球资源再定价"的周期修复逻辑。 2、《担保比例提至高位，资金调仓 3、《春节后科技主线行情或将如何 1）资源品方面，美伊局势升温推动国际油价假期累涨逾 5%，叠加国内 PPI 环比持续 回升与供给侧"反内卷"政策效果显现，两者共振全球资金向重资产方向切换，钢铁、 有色、稀土、基础化工等板块形成共振。2）科技方面，算力硬件与存储是本周真正 主线：SK 海力士披露 DRAM 与 NAND 库存仅剩约 4 周，全年涨价预期进一步强化， 国产存储替代逻辑同步升温；AI 应用与大模型概念则因缺乏业绩兑现支撑而明显回 撤，科技板块内部呈现"硬件强、应用弱"的结构性分化。 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 美以打击伊朗，美元指数短期走强 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好摇摆，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数下跌，美 债收益率降至 3.94%。美元指数跌 0.19%至 97.6，非美货币多数 升值，离岸人民币升 0.51%，欧元涨 0.24%，英镑涨 0.03%，日 元跌 0.64%，瑞郎涨 0.81%，加元、新西兰元、澳元、韩元、兰 特、雷亚尔等收涨。金价涨 3.4%至 5279 美元/盎司，VIX 指数 回升至 19.8，现货商品指数收涨，布油跌 2%至 70.8 美元/桶。 ★市场交易逻辑 外 汇 期 货 美国最高法院裁决特朗普对等关税无效后，2 月 24 日开始，美 国开始征收新的 10%全球临时进口关税，美国贸易代表格里尔 表示，对部分国家加征的全球进口关税可能从 10%升至 15%或 更高。关税风险将继续施压全球经济。中东地区局势升温，美 国和以色列正式对伊朗发起攻击，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊以及 革命卫队多位将领阵亡，周末加密货币价格剧烈波动，首先是 避险情绪快速上升、比特币作为风险资产价格下跌，一度跌超 3%，随后收复失地，在 ...