证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20260118 情绪过热后略有降温，但大方向依旧乐观 2026 年 01 月 18 日 [Table_Summary] 基金规模统计：（2026.1.12-2026.1.16） 市场行情展望：（2026.1.19-2026.1.23） ◼ 观点：情绪过热后略有降温，但大方向依旧乐观。 基金配置建议： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《特朗普的"通胀焦虑"与上中下策》 2026-01-17 《特朗普 IEEPA 关税判决前景四问》 2026-01-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：排名前三名的权益类 ETF 类型分别为： 主题指数 ETF（311.11 亿元），跨境主题指数 ETF（62.12 亿元），行 业指数 ETF（28.42 亿元）。 ◼ 权益类 ETF 产品基金规模变化：规模增加排名前三名 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - TSMC reported strong Q4 financial results and optimistic performance outlook, with a capital expenditure plan of up to $56 billion for 2026, a 37% increase from the actual spending of $40.9 billion in 2025, marking a record high for the company [3][4] - The demand for AI is real and strong, with high capital expenditures expected to continue over the next three years, significantly exceeding the $101 billion spent in the past three years, focusing on supporting AI demand and global advanced process capacity expansion [4] - The global average utilization rate for 8-inch wafers is projected to rise to 85-90% in 2026, significantly better than the 75-80% in 2025, driven by the increasing demand for power-related ICs due to applications like AI servers and Edge AI [5] Recommendations - Focus on Taiwanese semiconductor supply chain companies such as Shenghui Integrated, Yaxiang Integrated, and Hanzhong Precision [6] - Pay attention to domestic companies with high potential in the measurement segment, including Jingce Electronics, Zhongke Feimeasure, Saiteng Co., and Aiko Optoelectronics [6] - Consider companies involved in clean rooms and medium systems like Zhengfan Technology, Shengjian Technology, Meier Technology, and Zhichun Technology [6] - Look into testing probe companies such as Helin Weina and Qiangyi Co. [6] - Core process equipment firms include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, Weidao Nano, and Maiwei Co. [6] - Advanced packaging companies like Kuaike Intelligent and Xinqi Micro-Assembly are also recommended [6] - Third-party testing firms such as Sutest and Shengke Nano should be considered [6]

Group 1: ASML and Semiconductor Equipment - ASML's stock price has reached a historic high, with a market capitalization exceeding $520 billion, driven by TSMC's AI spending guidance and storage chip capacity expansion [2][7] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that ASML's EUV lithography machine shipments could reach 80 units by 2027, with projected sales of approximately €46.8 billion for the fiscal year 2027, indicating peak profit growth [2][7] - CITIC Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in semiconductor equipment, highlighting the potential for domestic companies to double their localization rate as TSMC increases capital expenditures significantly [2][7] Group 2: State Grid and Investment Opportunities - The State Grid is expected to invest ¥4 trillion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on new power systems and ultra-high voltage direct current transmission projects [2][7] - This investment is anticipated to drive the development of the industrial chain, with several companies already winning bids for State Grid projects, positively impacting their performance and valuations [2][7] Group 3: A-Share Company Performance - Over 300 A-share companies have released earnings forecasts for 2025, with six companies expected to report net profits exceeding ¥10 billion, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [3][8] - Companies like Zijin Mining are expected to see significant profit increases due to rising production and prices of mineral products, while the photovoltaic industry faces challenges but may recover with technological advancements [3][8] Group 4: Silver Prices and Photovoltaic Industry - The surge in silver prices has increased the cost of silver used in solar cells, prompting manufacturers to raise prices and accelerate plans to substitute copper for silver [3][8] - The photovoltaic industry may face net losses again, with a projected 17% reduction in silver usage by 2026, although short-term investment demand could still support silver prices [3][8] Group 5: Capital Market and Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has outlined five key areas for 2026, focusing on market stability, service efficiency, regulatory enforcement, enterprise development, and promoting two-way opening [3][8] - The emphasis is on preventing market volatility while deepening reforms to enhance market stability and competitiveness [3][8] Group 6: Housing Provident Fund Reform - The housing provident fund system in China is facing challenges related to fund activation and localized management, with reforms aimed at increasing flexibility and expanding usage [4][10] - The goal is to integrate the provident fund into a multi-tiered housing security and financial system [4][10] Group 7: U.S. Stock Market Trends - U.S. stock markets experienced slight declines, with traders focusing on comments from former President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve chair nomination and other political issues [4][10] - The market is reacting to potential changes in interest rate expectations and legal challenges regarding tariffs [4][10] Group 8: Iron Ore Supply for Steel Industry - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of West Mambore iron ore has arrived in China, which is expected to supply 120 million tons of high-quality iron ore annually, stabilizing the raw material supply for the steel industry [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The successful development of China's first serial high-energy hydrogen ion implanter (POWER-750H) by China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) signifies that China has fully mastered the entire chain of research and development technology for this equipment, which is crucial for the semiconductor manufacturing industry [1] Group 1: Technology and Development - The core indicators of the POWER-750H have reached an internationally advanced level, marking a significant achievement in the integration of nuclear technology and the semiconductor industry [1] - The successful development of this ion implanter is expected to enhance China's self-sufficiency in key areas such as power semiconductors, thereby strengthening the security of the industrial chain [1] Group 2: Market Context - Historically, China has relied entirely on foreign imports for high-energy hydrogen ion implanters, which has been a bottleneck for the upgrade of strategic industries due to high technical barriers and development difficulties [1] - The research institute has leveraged decades of experience in nuclear physics accelerators to overcome various challenges, thus breaking the technological blockade and long-standing monopoly of foreign companies in this field [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huayuan Securities has given Zhongke Feimiao (688361.SH) an "overweight" rating based on its focus on high-end semiconductor quality control equipment and the continuous enrichment of its product matrix [1] - The global semiconductor measurement equipment market is experiencing sustained growth, which supports the positive outlook for Zhongke Feimiao [1] - The company is making significant progress in core technology breakthroughs and product iteration upgrades, which further strengthens its market position [1]

Group 1 - The Beijing Stock Exchange's listing committee approved China Academy of Sciences Shenyang Instrument Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Zhongke Instrument") for IPO, marking it as the 7th company to pass the review in 2026 [1] - Zhongke Instrument is a leading provider of core components for semiconductor manufacturing equipment and vacuum scientific instruments, focusing on the R&D, production, and sales of dry vacuum pumps and related technology services [1] - The company plans to issue up to 52 million shares to unspecified qualified investors, with a potential increase of up to 15% through an over-allotment option, bringing the total to a maximum of 59.8 million shares [2] Group 2 - Zhongke Instrument aims to raise approximately 825.48 million yuan, which will be allocated to projects including the industrialization of dry vacuum pumps, expansion of high-end semiconductor equipment, and the development of next-generation dry vacuum pumps [2] - The review meeting raised inquiries regarding the accuracy of revenue recognition, specifically questioning the management mechanisms for acceptance documents and the internal control norms related to revenue recognition [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% during its first meeting in 2026, while adjusting the balance sheet reduction pace and lowering economic growth expectations to below 2%, alongside raising inflation expectations to above 3% [3] - Market expectations for future rate cuts have strengthened, with traders anticipating two rate cuts by the end of July 2026, leading to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields and a rise in gold prices, reflecting increased global liquidity expectations [3] - There are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the path of rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs predicting two cuts to 3.5%-3.75% in 2026, while some officials emphasize the need for tangible progress on inflation or weakness in the labor market before policy adjustments [3] Group 2 - A-share turnover rate reached 280%, with companies like Yisou Technology experiencing significant speculative trading, driven by the hype around the reality world asset tokenization concept, resulting in a 38.22% price surge [6] - High turnover rates can indicate both speculative activity and structural opportunities, as seen with companies like New Times reaching similar turnover rates, where performance improvements or policy benefits could lead to significant investment opportunities [7] - The Central Financial Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have issued guidelines to encourage long-term capital to enter the market, focusing on enhancing the quality of listed companies and promoting the development of equity funds [8] Group 3 - The expectation of a weaker dollar due to potential Fed rate cuts is driving global capital towards undervalued markets, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks being viewed as core investment targets [11] - As of August 2024, long-term funds held 21.4 trillion yuan of A-share circulating market value, a 32% increase since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, indicating a growing proportion of long-term capital in the market [12] - Domestic fiscal policies, including an increase in the fiscal deficit rate and expanded local bond issuance, combined with expectations of monetary easing, are creating a dual effect of increased liquidity and economic recovery [13] Group 4 - Investment strategies should balance offensive and defensive positions, focusing on sectors like AI, robotics, and semiconductor equipment, while also considering consumer recovery in sectors such as home appliances and automobiles [14] - Risk management strategies include maintaining a total position of 60%-65%, with no single sector exceeding 30%, and employing hedging tools like index futures and options to mitigate systemic risks [14] - Investors should closely monitor Fed policy changes, domestic fiscal and monetary policies, and industry data to adjust strategies flexibly [14] Group 5 - The shift in Fed policy signals and the high turnover rate in A-shares reflect a new global capital flow pattern, with A-shares establishing an independent market moat through the introduction of long-term funds and improved investor structure [16] - There is a need for investors to seize structural opportunities in sectors like technology and consumer recovery while enhancing risk control awareness to achieve stable returns [16]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's market capitalization has surpassed $500 billion, driven by TSMC's higher-than-expected capital expenditures, indicating strong demand in the semiconductor industry, particularly in AI-related investments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Position - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, exceeding market expectations of $46 billion, which positively impacts ASML's stock [1]. - ASML's stock has risen over 24% this month and 49% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which increased by 15% [4]. - ASML's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach approximately $46 by 2027, nearly double that of 2025, reflecting strong growth momentum [2][3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Technological Advancements - ASML holds a 90% market share in advanced lithography equipment, primarily due to its unique capability to manufacture extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines [3][6]. - The demand for EUV technology is expected to grow rapidly by 2026, driven by advanced DRAM and cutting-edge logic devices, while the demand for deep ultraviolet (DUV) technology is anticipated to decline [6][7]. - ASML's high numerical aperture (High-NA) EUV systems are set to play a crucial role in the production of 2nm and below process technologies, marking a significant technological advancement in chip manufacturing [7]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley analysts predict that ASML's stock could rise by up to 70%, potentially reaching $2,000 if profits exceed expectations and tech valuations continue to climb [2]. - The firm emphasizes that the ongoing capital expenditure cycle, particularly in the wafer foundry and memory sectors, supports their bullish outlook on ASML [2]. - ASML's service revenue has increased by 39% to €6 billion, accounting for 26% of total sales, indicating a strong growth trajectory in service offerings [3].

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Yuecexin Semiconductor Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 50 million RMB, fully owned by Yuexin Technology Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The legal representative of Suzhou Yuecexin Semiconductor Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. is Zhang Yue [1] - The company is a wholly foreign-owned enterprise with a business scope that includes technology services, development, consulting, and sales related to semiconductor equipment and integrated circuits [1] Group 2: Business Scope - The business activities include software development, technology transfer, artificial intelligence application software development, and electronic product sales [1] - The company is also involved in the import and export of goods and technology, as well as leasing of machinery and non-residential real estate [1] Group 3: Registration Details - The company is registered in Jiangsu Province, Suzhou City, with a business duration until January 16, 2026, and has no fixed term thereafter [1] - The registration authority is the Suzhou Xiangcheng Data Bureau [1]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock price has surged to a historical high, driven by positive news and strong guidance from its major client, TSMC, regarding AI-related spending, indicating the start of a robust profit cycle for the company [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - ASML's stock price increased by over 6% this week, with a market capitalization surpassing $520 billion [1]. - On January 16, ASML's stock rose by 2.03%, reaching a market cap of $526.3 billion, making it the third European stock to exceed this threshold [2]. Group 2: TSMC's Capital Expenditure and Its Impact - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a 32% increase from 2025's $40.9 billion [3]. - This significant increase in capital spending is a key catalyst for ASML's stock price surge, with expectations of further growth in the coming years [3]. Group 3: Future Projections and Earnings Estimates - Morgan Stanley forecasts ASML's sales to reach approximately €46.8 billion in fiscal year 2027, with EBIT of €19.7 billion and a gross margin of 56.2% [4]. - The expected earnings per share for 2027 is €45.74, a 57% increase compared to the 2026 estimate of €29.12 [4]. Group 4: Short-Term Outlook and Orders - ASML is expected to report strong order activity in the upcoming quarters, with Q4 2025 orders projected at €7.27 billion, significantly higher than Q3's €5.4 billion [7]. - The anticipated sales for Q4 2025 are €9.675 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth [7]. Group 5: Market Trends and Demand Drivers - The high demand for memory chips is expected to drive capacity expansion among manufacturers, further increasing the demand for ASML's equipment [5]. - The DRAM market's strong performance is likely to lead to a significant capacity expansion wave, boosting demand for ASML's EUV and DUV tools [7].