Group 1 - The stock price of Wanma Co., Ltd. closed at 14.26 yuan on July 31, 2025, down 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 5.95 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 4.11% [1] - Wanma Co., Ltd. operates in the power grid equipment and new materials sectors, with main businesses including wires and cables, polymer materials, and electric vehicle charging equipment [1] - Wanma Polymer, a subsidiary, is one of the few companies in China capable of producing ultra-high voltage cable insulation materials [1] Group 2 - The company disclosed that its ultra-high voltage insulation material phase III project will achieve an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons, increasing its domestic market share to approximately 20% [1] - Wanma Co., Ltd. is advancing a project in Qingdao for the annual production of 350,000 tons of environmentally friendly polymer materials to enhance its market presence in Northern China [1] - The company's products have been applied in several large hydropower projects, including the Three Gorges Hydropower Station, and are actively following up on the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project [1] Group 3 - On July 31, the net outflow of main funds was 49.37 million yuan, accounting for 0.34% of the circulating market value [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" compared to the market, marking its first rating [2]. Core Insights - The printed circuit board (PCB) is widely used in the electronics field, with electrical performance being a key indicator for PCB iteration. It is referred to as the "mother of electronic products" [3]. - The demand for high-end copper-clad laminates (CCL) is driven by the rapid deployment of AI applications and increased capital expenditure by tech giants in AI servers. The shipment of AI servers is expected to rise significantly, with a notable increase in the number of CCL layers required for high-performance servers [3]. - Electronic resins play a crucial role in the performance of CCLs, with various types of resins being used, including biphenyl resin, polyphenylene ether resin, and hydrocarbon resin, the latter showing significant development potential [3]. - The properties of glass fiber and fillers significantly impact the characteristics of CCLs, with domestic companies expected to enter the supply chain rapidly [3]. - Investment recommendations highlight that Shengquan Group has successfully developed polyphenylene ether (PPO/PPE) resin and established a fully automated production line with a capacity of 1,300 tons per year [3]. Summary by Sections 1. PCB Industry Chain Overview - The PCB serves as a key electronic interconnection component, with its upstream primarily consisting of copper foil, glass fiber cloth, and resin. CCL is an important intermediate product in PCB manufacturing [9][12]. 2. High-End PCB Downstream Demand - The global AI infrastructure market is projected to grow from $27.94 billion in 2024 to $32.98 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.01% from 2025 to 2033 [32]. - The shipment of AI servers is expected to reach 2.131 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [32]. - The demand for high-speed PCBs is increasing due to the high data transmission speed requirements of AI servers, with some high-end AI servers already utilizing M8-level CCLs [40]. 3. PCB Resins - Electronic resins are the only organic materials in CCL production that can be designed for specific properties, significantly affecting the dielectric performance and environmental stability of the boards [57][59]. - Commonly used resins include epoxy resin, cyanate ester resin, and hydrocarbon resin, with hydrocarbon resin currently being a hot development area due to its excellent properties [80]. 4. PCB Glass Fiber - Glass fiber is a key material in PCB manufacturing, with electronic-grade glass fiber being a high-end product that provides excellent thermal and chemical resistance [96]. - The report categorizes electronic cloth into high-end, mid-range, and low-end based on thickness and functionality, with specific applications tailored to different performance requirements [94][96].

业接单仍平淡；日化、食品包装膜需求持续；预计下游开工率拐点于8月上旬到来。成本方面，市场对美国 关税政策的忧虑有所缓解，美国对俄罗斯施压、对伊朗制裁离场持续，近期国际油价走强。宏观方面，美 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 欧关税达成协议，中美双方将继续推动已暂停的关税展期90天。短期L2509预计震荡走势，日度K线关注72 免责声明 塑料产业日报 2025-07-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7387 | 2 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7442 | 4 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7424 | -1 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7387 | 2 | | 期货市场 | 成交量(日,手) | 244663 | 4959 持仓量(日,手) | 334157 | ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **commodity supercycle** and the impact of **anti-involution policies** on the **midstream materials and manufacturing industries**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: Anti-involution policies may lead to a revaluation of midstream materials and manufacturing industries, similar to the utility price increase trend observed in 2023-2024. Focus on industries with negative ROC minus VAC indicators, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment** [1][2][5]. 2. **Drivers of Commodity Supercycle**: The commodity supercycle is driven by **de-globalization** and **de-dollarization**. De-globalization restricts factor flow, raising inflation, while de-dollarization leads to increased commodity pricing. Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s commodity bull market due to similar conditions [3][9]. 3. **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The Renminbi's exchange rate is highly correlated with market trends. In the medium term, the price gap between China and the US supports Renminbi appreciation, although short-term risks from US debt issuance could pressure the A-share market [1][6]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the **Barbell Strategy**, allocating 80% of investments to safe assets like **gold, banks, resources, and utilities**, and 20% to sectors with potential catalysts such as **domestic computing power, robotics, and Hainan Free Trade Zone** [1][7]. 5. **US Treasury Account and Interest Rates**: The US Treasury General Account (TGA) needs to be replenished quickly, which may lead to a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to near or above 5%. This could impact dollar liquidity and put pressure on the A-share market, particularly growth-style stocks [1][8]. 6. **Historical Context of Anti-Involution**: The current anti-involution policy is seen as part of a broader strategy to address economic deflation, with historical precedents in 1999 and 2015-2016. The focus should also be on demand-side policies [5][11]. 7. **Measuring Industry Involution**: The difference between ROIC and WACC serves as a measure of industry involution. Negative values indicate industries that are not creating value, with many midstream manufacturing and materials sectors currently in this state [12]. 8. **Recent Performance of Involved Industries**: Industries with high involution levels, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment**, have shown significant recent performance improvements, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Price Trends**: From July 2022 to the present, gold and silver prices have increased by 100%, while platinum has risen by over 40%. Scarce metals have also seen significant price increases, suggesting a likely upward trend in commodity pricing [10]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: Certain commodities like **alumina and live pigs** have seen price increases not due to anti-involution but rather as part of the broader commodity supercycle, indicating the complexity of market dynamics [15][16]. 3. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: In the absence of a fundamental reversal in globalization trends, a suggested asset allocation strategy includes 80% in safe assets and 20% in technology and AI sectors, providing a balanced approach to risk management [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment driven by previous policies has declined, and most industrial product futures fell during the day, with V2509 dropping 2.68% to close at 5,149 yuan/ton [3]. - In the supply side, last week's PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.80% week - on - week. With the completion of most domestic PVC maintenance in July, and some restarting and continuous shutdown of certain plants next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly, and the new capacity load is gradually increasing, intensifying future supply pressure [3]. - On the demand side, it is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, with only rigid procurement. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy release is delayed, but the rainy season still hinders overseas demand transmission [3]. - In terms of cost, next week, the supply of calcium carbide will exceed demand, putting pressure on prices; the ethylene fundamentals change little, and the price may fluctuate slightly [3]. - From a macro perspective, the EU - US tariff agreement has been reached, and the latest progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations should be monitored. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support around 5,100 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,149 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224 yuan; the trading volume was 2,133,221 lots, an increase of 269,370 lots; the open interest was 818,506 lots, a decrease of 41,811 lots [3]. - The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 744,296 lots, a decrease of 6,830 lots; the short positions were 758,920 lots, an increase of 11,247 lots; the net long positions were - 14,624 lots, a decrease of 18,077 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,173.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 72.69 yuan [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 46.88 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC was - 213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,581.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.79%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.25%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 70.27%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 42.7 tons, an increase of 1.6 tons; the inventory in East China was 37.82 tons, an increase of 1.41 tons; the inventory in South China was 4.88 tons, an increase of 0.19 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6 (with 2012 as the base year of 100), a decrease of 0.12 [3]. - The cumulative completed area of real estate construction was 633,321.43 million square meters; the cumulative new construction area was 8,301.89 million square meters; the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 30,364.32 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.52%, an increase of 4.98 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.62%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 27.93%, an increase of 6.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 27.91%, an increase of 6.23 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 28, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 60 - 80 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 5,070 to 5,150 yuan/ton [3]. - From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% [3]. - As of July 24th, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 68.34 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.23% [3].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View Recently, there are many restarted plants, resulting in a slight increase in supply. However, the demand side is more cautious, and the procurement intensity has slowed down. The demand of downstream factories remains in the off - season, with a low operating rate, and the restocking intensity may remain weak. Secondly, the capacity utilization rate has increased, and the supply has gradually returned. Inventory accumulation is expected next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate is 78.97%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.97%; PE weekly output is 61.51 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.96% [9]. 2. Demand - PE downstream weighted operating rate shows a seasonal decline, with a downstream weighted operating rate of 38.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% [9]. 3. Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory is 50.29 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; social inventory is 55.84 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06% [9]. 4. Upstream and Cost - No specific summary data about upstream and cost are provided other than some related charts about ethylene production and downstream operating rate. 5. Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.50% month - on - month to 7412 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 3.25% month - on - month to 7456 yuan/ton [9]. 6. Basis and Spread - The basis is - 43; the (9 - 1) spread is - 48 [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the weekly market conditions of polyolefins (including plastics, PP, and propylene), with a focus on price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Overall, the upward driving force of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it suggests partial reduction of long positions. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Review and Outlook - **2025 - Week 30 Macro Review**: The commodity index and 3P showed certain fluctuations. The whole - week increase was PVC > energy - chemicals > polyolefins > commodities. The market continued to trade on anti - involution policies. PE, PP, and PVC had coal - based proportions of 21%, 23%, and 70% respectively, and old - capacity proportions of 14%, 8%, and 11% respectively [12]. - **2025 - Week 31 Macro Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes. Plastic Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The L2509 contract fluctuated between [7224, 7483] this week, with the price rising driven by multiple news on Friday. The closing price was 7456 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [15][19]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will increase by 30,000 tons. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past 5 years [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The agricultural film start - up rate has improved marginally [4]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially reduce long positions. Focus on the interval [7200 - 7500] for L2509. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the long LP09 arbitrage. - **Hedging**: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [5]. PP Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated between [7023, 7239] this week, with the price rising driven by news on Friday. The closing price was 7221 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [56][60]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will rise to 790,000 tons, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to weaken, with the warehouse receipts reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream start - up rate remains at around 50%, and the plastic - weaving start - up rate has continued to decline [78][80]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [7050 - 7300] for PP2509. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the long PP9 - 1 spread or MTO position opportunistically. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [8]. Propylene Weekly Fundamental Analysis - **Market Performance**: In the first week of propylene's listing, it fluctuated strongly, with the PL01 contract fluctuating between [6501, 6708]. As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton week - on - week [89][92]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PDH start - up rate has increased marginally, and the factory inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The supply pressure will continue to increase in the future [93][95]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate has decreased marginally. Most downstream industries maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy [10]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [6500 - 6700] for PL2601. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the short PL1 - 2 spread. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the premium of the futures price [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the primary form plastic production in Liaoning Province experienced a decline in May 2025, with a total output of 554,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% and a significant drop in growth rate compared to the previous year [1] - The production growth rate in May 2025 was 11.4 percentage points lower than the same month in the previous year, and the output accounted for 4.7% of the national total of 11.9 million tons [1] - In the cumulative data from January to May 2025, Liaoning Province's primary form plastic production reached 2.872 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the previous year [3] Group 2 - The cumulative production growth rate from January to May 2025 was 2.7 percentage points lower than the national average, with Liaoning's output representing 4.9% of the national total of 58.098 million tons [3] - The classification of primary form plastics has evolved, with the term "plastic resin and copolymers" used prior to 2004, and the threshold for large-scale industrial enterprises raised from 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan in 2011 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in the production of primary plastic forms in Beijing, with a notable increase in both monthly and cumulative production figures for April 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - In April 2025, the production of primary plastic forms reached 93,000 tons, representing an 18.7% year-on-year increase, which is 33.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The growth rate in April 2025 was 6.7 percentage points higher than the national average, with Beijing's production accounting for 0.8% of the national total of 11,686,000 tons [1] Group 2 - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of primary plastic forms in Beijing was 357,000 tons, showing a 9.0% year-on-year increase, which is 16.8 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - The cumulative growth rate for the first four months of 2025 was 1.1 percentage points lower than the national average, with Beijing's production also representing 0.8% of the national total of 4,601,200 tons [1]

徐绍祖（联系人） 供需双弱不变， 宏观情绪回暖 聚烯烃周报 2025/07/26 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 政策端：宏观预期转强，化工企业响应"反内卷"政策，国内资本市场情绪回暖。 ◆ 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（成本＞期货＞现货），聚丙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货）。 ◆ 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-1.70%，Brent原油下跌-0.01%，煤价上涨1.88%，甲醇上涨1.24%，乙烯上涨1.56%，丙烯上涨0.80%， 丙烷下跌-2.35%。成本端价格涨跌各异。 ◆ 供应端：PE产能利用率80.26%，环比上涨2.07%，同比去年上涨5.84%，较5年同期下降-6.41%。PP产能利用率76.58%，环比下降- 1.40%，同比去年上涨4.89%，较5年同期 ...