Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 23, 2025, the restart of maintenance devices such as Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate decreased to 42.45%, and the overall is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years The plastics supply has increased due to new capacity, while the downstream demand is weak The plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is still falling, so it is expected that the plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future Also, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 23, Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE and other maintenance devices restarted, increasing the plastics operating rate to 86.5%, and the operating rate is at a neutral level As of the week of December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years Petrochemical de - stocking is slow, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years Due to oversupply of crude oil and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has increased slightly The agricultural film is out of the peak season, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline The downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market, so it is expected that the plastics will fluctuate weakly and the L - PP spread will decline [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, closing at 6296 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.06% The trading volume decreased by 24483 lots to 581559 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot prices in the market declined, with a range of - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton LLDPE was reported at 6150 - 6420 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7750 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7900 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 23, the restart of Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE and other maintenance devices increased the plastics operating rate to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons, which is 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year Petrochemical de - stocking is slow, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $61/barrel, and the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4]

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-12-23 支撑博弈，短期预计震荡走势。技术上，V2605关注4470附近前低支撑与4800附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4738 | 147 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1874446 | 728966 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 964843 | -5287 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 95717 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流入1.89亿元，游资资金净流出3.87亿元，散户资金净流 入1.98亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 证券之星消息，12月23日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨0.43%，神剑股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3919.98，上涨0.07%。深证成指报收于13368.99，上涨0.27%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-23 供强需弱格局延续，拖累价格下行 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6240元/吨（-80），PP主力合约收盘价为6119元/吨（-94），LL华北现货为6250 元/吨（-100），LL华东现货为6400元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6150元/吨（-60），LL华北基差为10元/吨（-20），LL 华东基差为160元/吨（+80）， PP华东基差为31元/吨（+34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为61.6元/吨（-57.7），PP油制生产利润为-368.4元/吨（-57.7），PDH制PP生产利润 为-629.8元/吨（+48.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-131.8元/吨（-8.2），PP进口利润为-215.8元/吨（+1.8），PP出口利润为-13.4美元/吨（-0.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP ...

新华财经北京12月22日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场12月22日涨多跌少，其中集运欧线主力合约涨超8%；钯、铂主力合约封涨停板，涨幅分别 为7.00%、6.99%；沪银主力合约涨超6%；沪镍、PTA主力合约涨超4%；对二甲苯、碳酸锂、短纤、瓶片主力合约涨超3%；沥青、LU、SC原油、苯乙烯、 纸浆、沪金主力合约涨超2%。下跌品种中，塑料、多晶硅主力合约跌超2%；聚丙烯、PVC、玻璃、丙烯、氧化铝主力合约跌超1%。 虽然上周马士基宣布旗下货船近两年来首次完成穿越红海和曼德海峡的航行，但目前没有其他再次通过该海域的航行计划。这使得航司重返红海和苏伊士运 河航线的前景仍存在不确定性。且刚刚过去的周末，以色列国防军参谋长扎米尔21日在军方一场活动上发出的警告，暗示以色列可能要再次打击伊朗，进而 也给红海通航前景带来不确定因素。另从航运市场自身来看，虽然2026年1月首周部分航司的开舱价格不及宣涨目标，但在分析机构看来，考虑到今年春节 偏晚，旺季特征或在1月下旬才会显现，这使得集运欧线近月的强预期依然存在，从而提振市场情绪。在此背景下，资金积极入场集运欧线的迹象明显。盘 面上看，22日盘中，伴随着集运欧线期价走 ...

证券之星消息，12月22日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨2.93%，神剑股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3917.36，上涨0.69%。深证成指报收于13332.73，上涨1.47%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流入10.79亿元，游资资金净流出7.76亿元，散户资金净流 出3.03亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002361 | 神剑股份 | 66'8 | 10.04% | 255.09万 | | 22.25 亿 | | 603928 | 兴业股份 | 16.67 | 10.03% | 18.10万 | | 2.96/Z | | 601208 | 东材科技 | 24.21 | 9.95% | 117.18万 | | 27.69亿 | | 688585 | 上纬新材 | 106 ...

进入12月，国内聚丙烯市场延续了前期的弱势运行态势。截至12月19日，华东地区 PP 拉丝主流报价降 至 6150 元/吨，较月初的 6360 元/吨下滑210 元/吨，跌幅达3.3%。 从供应端来看，12无新产能投放，但市场呈现"总量充足、局部偏紧" 的分化特征：一方面，部分装置 不稳定及西北资源受煤炭发运等物流环节扰动，导致局部区域出现现货结构性趋紧的情况；另一方面， 行业整体存量装置开工率维持高位，主流生产企业货源稳定，从全局来看，市场供给端仍保持充足状 态，并未形成实质性的供应缺口。需求端的表现则进一步加剧了市场的弱势氛围。尽管下游刚性采购需 求稳定，但"恐跌"心态持续主导交易情绪。中间商担忧价格继续下行而不敢贸然囤货，下游工厂也多采 取 "随用随采、少量补库" 的谨慎策略，整体备货意愿低迷，导致产业链库存流转压力持续存在。叠加 原油价格的震荡偏弱，成本支撑力度不足，再加上宏观层面缺乏针对性的利好政策加持，多重利空因素 交织共振，PP价格缺乏向上反弹的动能，持续在弱势区间寻底运行。目前去看，聚丙烯市场依然缺乏 向上的驱动，预计2025年大概率将以弱势收尾。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The polyolefin price trend was divided this week. The continuous decline in the PE agricultural film operating rate led the L main contract to seek the bottom unilaterally. The PP operating rate was decent, and the slight increase in the BOPP operating rate supported the PP main contract price. Overall, the fundamental situation remained one of strong supply and weak demand, and there was significant upward pressure on polyolefins as a whole. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6300 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with attention on the 6200 support level. The LP spread is expected to narrow [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6320 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.56%. The average price of LDPE was 8550 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.54%. The average price of HDPE was 7012.5 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6605 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.42%. The LLDPE South China basis was 285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.75%. The 1 - 5 month spread was -48 yuan/ton (-38) [12]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -48 yuan/ton (-38), the 5 - 9 month spread was -47 yuan/ton (-14), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (52) [18]. - **Key Data Tracking - Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [20][21]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.54 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.99 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.10 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (-30) [23]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was -279 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was -13 yuan/ton, an increase of 163 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 67.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.86 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous week [32]. - **Key Data Tracking - 2025 Commissioning Plan**: A total of 543 tons of new polyethylene production capacity was planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already commissioned and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many polyethylene production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [37]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 45.18%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging films was 48.96%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.00%, unchanged from the previous weekend [39]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films was the highest, accounting for 37.3%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data was significant, currently accounting for 8.6%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level [42]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 46.87 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [45]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11332 lots, unchanged from the previous week [48]. PP - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83% [52]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [54][56]. - **Key Data Tracking - Basis**: On December 19, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi was 6253.33 yuan/ton (-0%). The PP basis was 40 yuan/ton (-84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was -81 yuan/ton (-42) [58]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -81 yuan/ton (-42), the 5 - 9 month spread was -27 yuan/ton (16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 108 yuan/ton (26) [63]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: The cost situation was the same as that of plastic, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing and anthracite price at the Yangtze River port also decreasing [68]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was -522.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.14 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was -576.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China was 79.40%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 81.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The weekly output of PP powder was 6.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.72% [75]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [78]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 53.80% (-0.19). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.00% (-0.06%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+0.31%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.50% (-0.05%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.07% (-0.23%) [80]. - **Key Data Tracking - Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was -318.03 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was -1.18 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week [86]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.78 tons (+0.13%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 1.73% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.34% week - on - week; and the port inventory decreased by 1.03% week - on - week. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1012.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 10.12 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.91% [89][95]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 10934 lots, a decrease of 4813 lots from the previous week [99].

南华期货塑料产业周报 ——现货端未见好转，但装置负反馈增多 戴一帆 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 研究助理: 顾恒烨 期货从业证号 F03143348 联系邮箱: guhy@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 目前带动下跌的核心驱动仍来自现货市场的持续悲观情绪。本月PE现货价格出现连续的大幅下滑，然而下游 并未出现相应的投机性补库意愿，成交情况总体平淡，这导致市场陷入"价格下跌—成交疲弱—库存累积—价 格再下跌"的负向循环。现货市场的连续走弱对盘面形成了较强的拖拽力，并在周五情绪集中释放，引发快速 下跌。 而从PE基本面情况来看，虽然当前PE下游正向淡季转换，需求下滑，但是供应端压力或将得到一定缓解：一 是在价格快速下跌之中，装置检修量有所增加，二是目前HD-LL价差已到达高位，部分全密度装置传出转产 消息，标品LLDPE供应预计减量。因此，虽然当前PE现货端情况依然偏弱，但是盘面因受其拖累继续下跌的 空间预计有限。 PE期现价格 元/吨 LLDPE膜华北现货价格 塑料主力基差(右轴) 塑料主力收盘价 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月19日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少1.07个百分点至78.36%，PVC开工 率继续减少，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。冬季到来，PVC下游开工率环比下降3.5个百分点，下游 制品订单不佳。出口方面，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单有所回升，但印度市场价格也在下跌，印度 需求有限，关注台湾台塑1月份报价。本周社会库存略有减少，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、 销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于 近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新增产能上，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴 嘉化新近投产。反内卷情绪下，焦煤等大宗商品反弹提振市场情绪，氯碱综合毛利下降，部分生产 企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位，印度市场价格也在下跌，印度需求 有限。12月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，社会库存基本稳定，现货价格上涨后，市场成交偏淡，近期 PVC ...