1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Capital market sentiment is relatively hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The overall profit of polyolefins has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the divergence in the supply side of the 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene faces greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, it is expected that the LL - PP price difference will continue to strengthen in an oscillating manner [17]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: Capital market sentiment is hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. Polyolefin overall profit declines, and upstream and midstream high - level inventory starts to decrease [17]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil dropped by - 1.83% this month, Brent crude oil dropped by - 0.06%, coal price dropped by - 1.72%, methanol dropped by - 6.02%, ethylene dropped by - 6.92%, propylene rose by 7.37%, and propane rose by 12.52%. Oil prices are oscillating at a low level, and the impact on the cost side is small. This month's trading logic in the futures market is strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [17]. - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization rate is 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of - 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.08%, and a decrease of - 11.00% compared with the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 80.02%, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%, a year - on - year increase of 5.78%, and a decrease of - 5.99% compared with the five - year average. There is a divergence in the supply side of the polyolefin 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene has greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons [17]. - **Import and Export**: In July, domestic PE imports were 1.107 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.40% and a year - on - year decrease of - 14.78%. PP imports were 177,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 12.73% and a year - on - year decrease of - 12.73%. On the export side, it declined in the off - season. In July, PE exports were 101,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03% and a year - on - year increase of 76.67%. PP exports were 236,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 65.78% [17]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year decrease of - 5.86%. The downstream operating rate of PP is 49.90%, a month - on - month increase of 2.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 0.12%. The seasonal peak season is approaching, but the overall operating rate is lower than that of previous years, with PP performing better than PE [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 450,800 tons, with a destocking of - 12.53% this month and a stockpiling of 2.11% compared with the same period last year. PE trader inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.36% compared with last month and a destocking of - 2.07% compared with the same period last year. PP production enterprise inventory is 581,900 tons, with a destocking of - 0.89% this month and a stockpiling of 10.17% compared with the same period last year. PP trader inventory is 193,000 tons, with a stockpiling of 3.04% compared with last month and a stockpiling of 50.43% compared with the same period last year. PP port inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.26% compared with last month and a destocking of - 13.59% compared with the same period last year [17]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2601) is (7,200 - 7,500); the reference oscillation range for polypropylene (PP2601) is (6,900 - 7,200) [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Due to the mismatch in the production plans of the 2601 contract, go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [65]. 3.3 Cost Side - Crude oil prices are oscillating downward. The prices of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane have different trends. The profit from ethylene - based PE production has declined significantly. The import freight of LPG oscillates upward seasonally [85][93][119]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - The production raw materials of PE include oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based, with different proportions. In 2025, multiple PE production projects have been put into operation, with a total of 4.63 million tons of production capacity put into operation and 400,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The capacity utilization rate of PE shows certain fluctuations, and there are also corresponding maintenance plans [142][148][154]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export No detailed analysis content is provided in the text, only the figures of total inventory and production enterprise inventory are mentioned [158].

见面会现场，山东聚塑互联科技有限公司(聚塑云)董事长助理、CSO王鹏宇介绍了聚塑云能在万亿塑料行业领先的核心优势。他介绍，当前产业互联网平 台同质化严重，聚塑云能脱颖而出，核心在于走出了"平台+工厂+园区"多维融合模式：平台层服务2.5万家企业形成塑化产业数据库，工厂层浙塑新材料 实现"服务-研发-生产"垂直整合，园区层运营智慧产业园引入国内高端注塑企业群体构建集群数字生态，实现从"中介"升级为"生态构建者"。 "我们深刻认识到，产业互联网的终极价值不仅是优化流通，更在于通过数据穿透产业链，推动生产端的创新变革。为此，我们走出了'数据沉淀-研发转 化-实体落地'的三步骤路径。"王鹏宇认为，聚塑云的实践证明：产业互联网的终极目标不是"颠覆"，而是"重构"—用数字技术让传统产业焕发新生。 聚塑云成立于2018年，是国内领先的塑化产业数字化服务平台，平台专注于为塑化行业提供全方位的数字化解决方案。目前平台已服务全国塑化行业客户 2.5万余家，2024年平台交易规模达85亿元。聚塑云业务生态覆盖一站式采购、产业SaaS、数字化供应链金融、新材料研产及智慧产业园区等全产业链。 通过连接上下游企业，打造完善的产业数字化生 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300478 | 杭州 高新 | 20.35 | -3.14% | 25.88万 | 5.26亿 | | 300218 | 安利股份 | 21.51 | 0.23% | 11.28万 | 2.44亿 | | 002361 | 神剑股份 | 6.43 | 0.63% | 21.54万 | 1.38亿 | | 000859 | 国风新材 | 6.66 | 0.76% | 1 33.05万 | 2.18亿 | | 001378 | 德冠新材 | 22.64 | 1.07% | 1.32万 | 2973.71万 | | 301395 | 仁信新材 | 11.21 | 1.17% | 3.24万 | 3626.70万 | | 301019 | 宁波色母 | 16.71 | 1.21% | 2.02万 | 3367.47万 | | 002395 | 双象股份 | 18.43 | 1.26% | 8.52万 | 1.58亿 | | 688087 | 英格里手 | ...

展望未来，中国将继续以这种创新性的战略思维应对复杂国际局势。通过构建平等互利的国际关系网 络，中国正为建立更加公正合理的全球秩序贡献智慧。这种既坚持原则又灵活应对的策略，不仅有效维 护了国家利益，更为世界和平发展提供了重要启示。在全球治理体系变革的关键时期，中国的战略实践 将为国际社会提供宝贵经验。 A / 2 (30/4 - . 19 . te 北京正日益成为全球外交舞台的中心。不久前，中国成功举办了纪念世界反法西斯战争胜利的重要国际 活动，这场盛会吸引了包括俄罗斯、朝鲜等二十余国领导人出席。特别值得注意的是，朝鲜最高领导人 罕见地长途跋涉参与其中，这一外交举动引发国际社会广泛关注。在活动筹备阶段，某些国家曾试图阻 挠其他国家参与，但其自身却屡屡参拜供奉战犯的场所，这种双重标准遭到国际舆论的强烈质疑。与此 同时，日本前首相的出席为活动增添了特殊意义，而东南亚多国领导人的积极参与，则有力驳斥了所谓 \"中国被孤立\"的论调，彰显了中国在区域事务中的核心影响力。 在经贸领域，中国商务部近期宣布对进口苯酚产品实施反倾销措施，这一决定具有深远意义。苯酚作为 医药、农药、塑料等多个关键产业的基础原料，其市场稳定直接关 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The LLDPE market is expected to experience a mid - term oscillating trend. PE demand is improving due to the approaching peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry; however, recent weakening commodity sentiment has led to a decline in futures prices. Although there is a slight increase in domestic supply and a small inventory build - up recently, the overall inventory pressure is not high, so the PE market may continue to oscillate within a range [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2601 was 7225, with a daily decline of - 0.51%. The trading volume was 235,618, and the open interest increased by 12,101 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the 01 contract was - 115 (compared to - 97 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was 5 (compared to 7 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the spot price was 7110 yuan/ton (down from 7150 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7170 yuan/ton (down from 7220 yuan/ton); and in the South China region, it was 7350 yuan/ton (down from 7380 yuan/ton) [1]. Spot News - The domestic PE market prices oscillated within a range this week. Crude oil prices first rose and then fell, providing limited cost support. Some plants such as Shanghai Petrochemical, Tarim Petrochemical, and Ningxia Baofeng Phase III were under maintenance, but new production capacities from Jilin Petrochemical Phase II and Yulong Petrochemical continued to be released, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. The operating rate of the downstream agricultural film industry continued to rise, but new orders for some factories were lower than expected. The "Golden September" peak - demand season showed mediocre performance. Market sentiment was cautious, with holders offering small discounts to sell, and terminal inquiries were low, resulting in limited trading volume [1]. Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is improving, mainly due to the approaching peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports PE prices. However, recent weakening commodity sentiment has led to a decline in futures prices. In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August, and the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in the East China region. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a small inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not high [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 2.03% on September 4, with Shangwei New Materials leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3765.88, down 1.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12118.7, down 2.83% [1] - Key stocks in the plastic sector showed varied performance, with Hangzhou Gaoxin rising by 19.99% and Shangwei New Materials falling by 13.94% [1][2] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the plastic sector was 405 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 477 million yuan [2][3] - Major stocks like Jinfat Technology and Hangzhou Gaoxin had significant net inflows from main funds, while others like Dazhongnan and Fusheng Technology experienced net outflows [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and inventories are expected to continue the destocking trend. The peak season for greenhouse films is approaching, and packaging film orders are also supported, with the demand side gradually improving. In the medium - long term, the planned restart of some devices and the expected commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE plant in September will increase the industry's supply pressure. The global crude oil supply - demand is weak, and although the short - term geopolitical deterioration in the Middle East still supports oil prices to some extent, it has an impact on costs. Technically, L2601 should pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the pressure around 7,300 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,247 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,247 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,240 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,185 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan. The trading volume was 212,912 lots, down 11,546 lots; the open interest was 490,459 lots, up 9,091 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was - 62, down 12. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 333,381 lots, up 7,130 lots; the short positions were 360,509 lots, up 5,936 lots; the net long positions were - 27,128 lots, up 1,194 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,266.96 yuan/ton, down 11.74 yuan; in East China was 7,340.48 yuan/ton, down 7.38 yuan. The basis was 14.96, up 6.26 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.94 US dollars/barrel, up 0.47 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 600.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 836 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 78.68%, down 0.04 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 49.56%, down 0.29 percentage points; of pipes was 30.17%, down 0.5 percentage points; of agricultural films was 17.46%, up 2.93 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 5.89%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.51%, up 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.38%, up 0.79 percentage points; of at - the - money call options was 10.37%, up 0.79 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 22nd to 28th, China's total polyethylene production was 617,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene producers was 78.72%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.3% from the previous period. As of September 3rd, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 450,800 tons, a 5.57% increase from the previous period; as of August 29th, the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 560,500 tons, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period [2]

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 2.49% on September 3, with Shangwei New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.0, down 0.65% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included: - Guofeng New Materials (Code: 000859) with a closing price of 7.10, up 6.13% [1] - Jinfake Technology (Code: 600143) with a closing price of 16.09, up 3.41% [1] - Nengzhiguang (Code: 920056) with a closing price of 30.38, up 3.23% [1] - Significant decliners included: - Shangwei New Materials (Code: 688585) with a closing price of 82.66, down 15.31% [2] - Henghe Precision (Code: 300539) with a closing price of 29.01, down 8.14% [2] - Hechang Polymer (Code: 832089) with a closing price of 19.22, down 6.20% [2] Capital Flow - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 1 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 291 million yuan [2] - Major funds showed a net inflow in: - Jinfake Technology with 116 million yuan [3] - Guofeng New Materials with 90 million yuan [3] - Wankai New Materials with 46 million yuan [3] - Conversely, significant outflows were noted in: - Shangwei New Materials with a net outflow of 1.92 billion yuan [3] - Guofeng New Materials with a net outflow of 877 million yuan [3] - Wankai New Materials with a net outflow of 543 million yuan [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are bearish, with the supply expected to increase in the medium - long term while domestic demand is weak due to the poor performance of the real - estate market and insufficient domestic product orders. The anti - dumping policy from India also adds pressure. However, the price is at a historically low level, which limits the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4888 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 751,072 lots, down 16,722 lots; the open interest is 1,206,310 lots, up 6,574 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 125,894 lots, down 12,175 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4699.23 yuan/ton, down 22.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4895 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4791.25 yuan/ton, down 10.62 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2573.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2373 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The VCM CFR Far East middle - price is 503 US dollars/ton, down 18 US dollars/ton; the EDC CFR Far East middle - price is 189 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.02%, down 1.59 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 77.25%, up 0.44 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, down 6.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 52.19 tons, up 1.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 2810.593 billion yuan, up 363.043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.85%, down 1.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.07%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 14.98%, up 0.45 and 0.44 percentage points respectively [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 2, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton. From August 23rd to 29th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. As of August 28th, the PVC social inventory was 896,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.10% [3]. 3.8 Outlook - In the short term, the restart of some devices such as Zhongtai and Formosa Plastics Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. India's anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented in September [3].

Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 0.57% on September 2, with Dongcai Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included Shangwei New Materials, which rose by 14.66%, and Dadongnan, which increased by 10.11% [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the plastic sector was 5.92 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 5.64 billion yuan [3] - The table provided details on individual stock performance and trading volumes within the plastic sector [3]