Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand contradiction in the polyolefin market is prominent, with strong supply and weak demand. Both PE and PP are in a weak pattern [1][2]. - For PE, high supply, limited demand from downstream sectors like agricultural films, and weakening cost - end support lead to its continued weak trend [2]. - For PP, supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and with weak cost - end support, it will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6814元/吨（-65），PP主力合约收盘价为6491元/吨（-69）；LL华北现货为6800元/吨（-70），LL华东现货为6920元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6520元/吨（-10）；LL华北基差为-14元/吨（-5），LL华东基差为106元/吨（+35），PP华东基差为29元/吨（+59） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%），PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为247.4元/吨（-25.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 412.6元/吨（-25.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 74.9元/吨（+34.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 69.8元/吨（-62.8），PP进口利润为 - 318.2元/吨（-62.5），PP出口利润为 - 8.1美元/吨（+7.8） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and new capacity coming online. Demand is limited, with the growth of agricultural film demand likely to slow down and packaging film demand being weak. The cost - end support is expected to weaken, and it will continue its weak pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction persists. Supply is in excess due to new device commissioning and the return of previously maintained facilities. Demand support is limited, mainly from low - price rigid - demand restocking. It will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: Reverse arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - L2601 oscillated downward, closing at 6,814 yuan/ton. The impact of newly added and previously shut - down maintenance devices expanded, leading to a decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. The overall downstream PE operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate of agricultural film rising and that of packaging film falling. Production and social inventories decreased, with less inventory pressure. The cost of oil - based LLDPE increased and losses deepened, while the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased and profits rose slightly. With planned restarts of some devices, PE production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. In the short term, L2601 is expected to oscillate weakly, and the daily K - line should focus on the support around 6,770 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene decreased: the closing price of the main futures contract was 6,814 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 6,814 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 6,901 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 6,959 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. - Trading volume and open interest increased: trading volume was 290,462 lots, up 60,286 lots; open interest was 553,147 lots, up 20,008 lots. - The 1 - 5 spread was - 87, down 7. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 80,527 lots, down 3,112 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) decreased: in North China, it was 6,921.3 yuan/ton, down 30.43 yuan; in East China, it was 7,135.71 yuan/ton, down 9.52 yuan. The basis was 107.3, up 34.56 [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of raw materials decreased: the FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.59 US dollars/barrel, down 0.75 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 576.5 US dollars/ton, down 5.88 US dollars. The prices of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 80.86%, down 0.59% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of packaging film was 51.3%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of pipes was 32.17%, down 0.16%; the operating rate of agricultural film was 49.53%, up 2.42% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.91%, up 0.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.37%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 9.92%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, PE production decreased by 0.72% to 643,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.59% to 80.87%. The overall downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.4%, with the agricultural film operating rate up 2.4% and the packaging film operating rate down 1.3%. - As of October 29th, the inventory of PE production enterprises decreased by 19.16% to 416,000 tons; as of October 24th, the social inventory of PE decreased by 3.30% to 527,400 tons. - From October 25th to 31st, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 3.53% to 7,389 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 234.86 yuan/ton to - 360 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 1.12% to 6,845 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 5.57 yuan/ton to 197.86 yuan/ton [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Qide New Materials, expresses a positive outlook on the demand prospects for its core products, indicating stable order cycles and reasonable capacity utilization [1] Summary by Categories Customer Orders and Demand - The company reports that the order cycles from major customers are gradually stabilizing, which is a positive sign for future demand [1] - The company has made significant progress in collaborating with customers across multiple product lines [1] Product Development and Market Expansion - High-temperature resistant fiberglass reinforced PPS materials have gained recognition from key customers and have begun exporting to Southeast Asia [1] - The globally recognized GRS standard PIR eco-friendly nylon materials have passed certification from an internationally renowned furniture brand and have entered the supply phase [1] Automotive Sector Engagement - Injection-molded automotive parts have been designated for projects by several clients, including Yanfeng and Magna, covering mainstream brands such as Xpeng, GAC, Seres, and Changan [1] - The company has deepened cooperation in carbon fiber products with key customers, achieving multiple model designations and securing small batch orders in the humanoid robot sector [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In October, the polyethylene market was characterized by ample supply, weak demand, and price pressure, with the supply-demand relationship dominating the overall trend. In November, the supply is expected to increase, the demand may have marginal improvement but the increase is limited, high inventory remains a core constraint, and the market is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - In October, the total domestic polyethylene supply increased, with production rising both year-on-year and month-on-month, and different varieties showing growth. Maintenance losses decreased but with variety differentiation, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly while the regional rates generally declined. New capacity plans and the resumption of previously shut-down plants in November will further increase supply pressure [7][8][5]. - In terms of inventory, at the end of October, there was a differentiated pattern of decreasing production enterprise inventory and slightly increasing social inventory. High inventory is a key factor suppressing the market, and if demand improvement falls short of expectations, inventory accumulation pressure may persist [12][13][5]. - In October, the import prices of polyethylene decreased across the board, the overall import volume rebounded but with different performances among varieties, and the import profits of different varieties showed differentiation [15][16][17]. Demand Side - In October, the overall downstream operating rate of polyethylene increased slightly, with differentiated performance in different sectors. The demand for agricultural films increased significantly while that for packaging films declined slightly. The overall demand was weak, and enterprises mainly made rigid purchases. In November, there is room for marginal improvement in demand, but the growth may be limited due to macro - economic uncertainties [4][5][18]. Cost and Profit - In October, the cost of oil - based polyethylene production decreased, and the loss narrowed; the cost of coal - based production increased, and the profit margin was compressed. The profit of oil - based enterprises was still in the loss range but the loss decreased, while the profit of coal - based enterprises decreased significantly [4][22][26]. - In October, the price differences between polyethylene and related varieties showed a differentiated trend. The average price difference between PE - PVC:01 contract narrowed, while that between PE - PP:01 contract widened [27]. Summary - In October, the polyethylene market was characterized by ample supply, weak demand, and price pressure. In November, the supply pressure will increase, the demand may improve marginally, high inventory will continue to suppress the market, and the cost support is weak. The market is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend [4][5][29].

Core Insights - The 2025 China (Yuyao) International Plastics Expo and the 26th China Plastics Expo opened on November 4, focusing on the theme "Innovation Empowering Industry, Green Leading the Sector" [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo features three main exhibition areas: petrochemical plastic raw materials, plastic modification, and intelligent plastic machinery, covering an exhibition area of 42,000 square meters with over 430 domestic and international exhibitors [1] - The event highlights include the gathering of industry leaders such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and Shaanxi Yanchang Group, showcasing their advanced technologies [1][2] - Innovative exhibits span various fields including plastic processing, polymer materials, electronic components, plastic sheets and pipes, beauty products, and plastic machinery [1] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - The expo collaborates with multiple domestic plastic industry associations and professional institutions to organize professional purchasing groups for business matching with exhibitors [2] - It covers various sectors such as plastic processing, polymer materials, recycling resources, automotive parts, home appliances, electronic components, plastic sheets and pipes, beauty products, and plastic machinery [2] - The event also includes industry conferences and technical forums to enhance collaboration between industry, academia, and research, providing a one-stop platform for trade negotiations and technical exchanges [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the exceptional properties of polyimide, particularly its excellent radiation resistance, which allows it to maintain long-term reliability in high radiation and extreme environments [2] - Polyimide is recognized as the best polymer material for high and low-temperature insulation, playing a crucial role in insulation systems within special and complex environments [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term PVC futures market is expected to fluctuate in the low - valuation range, with technical support around 4640 and resistance around 4820 [3]. - With the arrival of winter, terminal demand for infrastructure and real estate weakens, and there is a seasonal decline expectation for the downstream PVC operating rate. The anti - dumping tax in India has no specific implementation time, and overseas demand remains uncertain. Domestic supply - demand contradictions are significant, making PVC de - stocking difficult, and high inventory pressure may persist [3]. - The high - operating state of PVC may continue as winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance. The restart of some plants is expected to keep the capacity utilization rate rising [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; trading volume was 649,206 lots, a decrease of 117,205 lots; open interest was 1,243,783 lots, an increase of 7,046 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 155,901 lots, a decrease of 1,460 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4606.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.46 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4691.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.38 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 151 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2690 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 518 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; the inventory in the East China region was 495,300 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons; the inventory in the South China region was 49,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.9%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.26%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 14.57%, an increase of 0.54 and 0.53 percentage points respectively [3]. Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a 1.69% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 0.8% to 42% and the profile operating rate increasing by 1.96% to 37.83% [3]. - As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons compared with the previous period, and increased by 25.09% year - on - year. From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5201 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5288 yuan/ton [3]. Profit Situation - The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3].

塑料产业日报 2025-11-04 ，昨日国际油价小幅收涨。短期L2601预计震荡走势，技术上关注6830附近支撑与7040附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6879 | -9 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6879 | -9 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6959 | -8 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7005 | -15 | | | 成交量(日,手) ...

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the plastic production in Qinghai Province reached 413,000 tons, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate that is 9.1 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 10.5 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In June 2025, the plastic production in Qinghai Province was 83,000 tons, representing a growth of 5.9% year-on-year, but this growth rate is 27.7 percentage points lower than in June 2024 and 6.2 percentage points lower than the national average [2] Production Analysis - The cumulative plastic production in Qinghai Province for the first six months of 2025 accounted for 0.6% of the national total production of 70,123,475 tons [1] - The June 2025 production accounted for 0.7% of the national total production of 12,032,089.9 tons [2] Historical Context - The term "primary plastic" was previously referred to as "plastic resin and copolymer" before 2004 [6] - The threshold for large-scale industrial enterprises in China was raised from an annual main business income of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan starting in 2011 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 580 million in Q3 2025, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30 million, down 51% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.68 billion, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 120 million, down 19% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from functional footwear and sofa home products accounted for nearly 70% of total revenue, while automotive interiors, electronics, and sports equipment contributed about 30% [1]. - The partnership with Nike is a significant growth driver, with increased project development and product orders from Nike, leading to revenue growth from this collaboration [1]. Financial Performance - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.4 billion, 2.7 billion, and 2.9 billion respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.8 billion [4]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period were adjusted to 170 million, 210 million, and 250 million, down from 230 million, 280 million, and 330 million [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23x, 19x, and 16x respectively [4]. Market and Product Development - The application of polyurethane composite materials in embodied intelligence is still in the exploratory phase, with no substantial business orders formed yet [2]. - The company is actively engaging with key enterprises in the embodied intelligence sector and advancing research and development efforts [2]. - In Vietnam, the company has seen steady growth in sales, reaching nearly 400,000 meters per month, with plans to expand market reach and optimize order structures [3].