| 可售期房统计 | 2025 年6月预售许可 | | 2025/7/30月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 可售房屋套数: 92676 | 批准预售许可证: | 11 | 网上认购 | | 可售房屋面积(M-): 7966561.9400 | 批准预售面积(M2):397332.3200 | | 网上认购面积( | | 其中 倍詞意数: 43987 | 其中 住宅套数: | 3021 | 其中 信詞 | | 面积(M2):5820945.7700 | 面积(M-): 386324.2700 | | 百科( | | 商业单元:256 | 商业单元: | 2 | 图川库 | | 面积(M2): 149958.6500 | 面积(M2): 5850.4700 | | 南观( | | 办公单元: 477 | 办公单元: | 0 | 办公室 | | 面积(M2): 403372.8500 | 面积(M-): | 0.0000 | 百科( | | 车位个数: 36685 | 车位个数: | 356 | 车位 | | 面积(M-): 1091615.8200 | 面积(M²): 5157.58 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. real estate market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with new single-family home sales declining and inventory levels rising, leading to downward pressure on prices [1][3][4] Market Trends - As of June, the annualized sales of new homes in the U.S. were 627,000 units, showing a month-over-month increase of 0.6% but a year-over-year decline of 6.6% [3] - The inventory of unsold new homes reached 511,000 units by the end of June, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 1.2% and a year-over-year increase of 8.5% [4] - The supply-to-sales ratio has risen to 9.8 months, indicating a market characterized by oversupply, as a balanced market is typically around 6 months [4] Price Dynamics - The median sales price of new homes fell to $401,800 in June, down 4.9% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, while the average sales price was $501,000 [4] - In 30 major metropolitan areas, 30 cities reported price declines, with Washington D.C., Austin, and San Diego experiencing the most significant drops [4] Buyer Sentiment - High mortgage rates, currently at 6.74%, are causing buyers to reassess affordability, leading to a more cautious approach in the market [4][7] - Some buyers are delaying purchases, hoping for further price reductions, despite the current favorable inventory conditions [6] Market Segmentation - The luxury segment remains robust, with sales of homes priced over $1 million increasing by 14% year-over-year, indicating that high-income buyers are less affected by market fluctuations [8][9] - In contrast, the overall market is seeing a bifurcation, with many potential buyers sidelined due to high rates and prices [8] Economic Implications - The sluggish housing market is expected to impact related consumer spending, such as durable goods, as fewer home transactions typically lead to decreased purchases of appliances and furnishings [7] - The construction sector is showing signs of strain, with a 4.6% decline in single-family home starts in June and a 3.7% drop in building permits [9]

Redfin华盛顿特区市场高级经理帕克（Marshall Park）认为，联邦政府裁员是当地房价承压的因素之 一，除此以外，"我们还看到高利率迫使买家重新评估什么是负担得起的，从而表现出价格敏感的迹 象。" 根据房地美数据，美国30年固定利率抵押贷款利率为6.74%，自2024年11月以来就从未回落至6.5%以下 的区间。 美国房地产市场传统上最为活跃的交易周期如今却异常冷清。根据美国人口普查局最新发布的数据，美 国新建单户住宅销售持续放缓，市场库存与供应量持续攀升，房价呈现下行趋势。 美国房地产经纪公司Redfin的统计进一步印证了这一趋势，今年4至6月的春季销售季期间，全美签署的 房屋销售合同数量创下自2012年以来的新低。 "近期我在曼哈顿完成的几笔交易，成交价格都处于低位。目前曼哈顿市场正处于低谷期，确实存在不 少优质的交易机会。"纽约知名地产经纪公司Serhant的资深经纪人艾米·王（Amy Wang）对第一财经记 者表示，不少卖家都表现出较强的出售意愿，在新泽西地区，优质社区仍然需要加价竞购，但普通社区 的交易节奏明显放缓。整体而言，市场降温的趋势已经十分明显。 为何放缓 根据美国人口普查局数据， ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes a simplified decision-making framework for homebuyers in a volatile real estate market, encapsulated in the phrase "buy old, buy big, don't buy three" [1] Group 1: Risk Avoidance - "Don't buy three" serves as a warning against three high-risk property types, helping buyers avoid significant potential losses [1] - Properties with unclear ownership, such as small property rights and unregistered relocation housing, face legal and economic risks, including potential demolition [3] - High-risk investment properties include remote locations with inadequate facilities, old houses with high maintenance costs, and flawed units prone to issues like leaks and noise, which are more vulnerable to market fluctuations [5] Group 2: Embracing Certainty - "Buy old" suggests opting for existing or nearly new second-hand homes to avoid the risks associated with unfinished properties, ensuring immediate availability and reducing financial loss from developer failures [7] - The advantages of existing homes include clear visibility of surrounding amenities, which is crucial for families with children needing stable schooling options, as well as higher usable space in older communities compared to new developments [7] - Data indicates a significant increase in second-hand home transactions in the first half of 2024, particularly in first-tier cities, reflecting a growing demand for certainty among buyers [7] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - "Buy big" encourages selecting larger units within financial means, enhancing living comfort and long-term asset value [10] - Larger homes cater to evolving family structures, providing necessary space for children and elderly family members, thus reducing the need for frequent relocations [10] - From an investment perspective, larger units are typically scarcer and more resilient to market downturns, making them easier to sell in the second-hand market [10] Conclusion - The framework of "buy old, buy big, don't buy three" is not a universal truth but should be adapted to individual circumstances, with economic capacity and location value being critical factors in decision-making [12]

Core Insights - The recent auction of a property in the Wen Ding Yuan development highlights a significant decline in real estate prices, with a recent transaction at 39,000 RMB per square meter, reverting to levels seen in early 2016 [1][3][4] - The property, which had previously seen high demand due to its school district, has lost its appeal, leading to a drastic reduction in both price and transaction volume [2][7] Price Trends - The latest auction for a 153 square meter top-floor unit started at 5.85 million RMB, with a final sale price of 6.014 million RMB, translating to a unit price of 39,000 RMB [2][3] - The initial listing in November 2022 had a starting price of 7.0384 million RMB, equating to 46,000 RMB per square meter, but failed to attract any bidders [2][3] Transaction Volume - The monthly transaction volume for Wen Ding Yuan has decreased significantly, averaging around 5 units per month in 2023, compared to 8 units per month in 2022 [4][7] - The peak transaction months in 2022 saw 17 units sold, while 2023 has seen months with as few as 2 transactions [4][7] Historical Context - Wen Ding Yuan was launched in 2005 with an initial price of 7,900 RMB per square meter, benefiting from the introduction of a local school, which drove prices up to 128,000 RMB per square meter by 2021 [7] - The property has experienced a dramatic decline in perceived value due to changing educational policies and shifting buyer preferences, leading to a reduced competitive edge in the market [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The real - estate market shows a mixed performance in July 2025. Both second - hand and new home sales have different trends in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year changes, with significant variations among different city tiers [1][3]. 3. Summary by Content Second - hand Housing - **Overall Performance**: In the week of July 11 - 17, the second - hand housing transaction area in 15 cities increased by 2% month - on - month after two consecutive weeks of decline, but decreased by 3% year - on - year. From July 1 - 17, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 5%, slightly larger than the 3% decline in June [1]. - **City - tier Analysis**: First - tier cities' second - hand housing transaction area increased by 2% month - on - month but decreased by 9% year - on - year. Second - tier cities' transaction area increased by 11% month - on - month and 2% year - on - year. Third - tier cities' transaction area decreased by 17% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year [2]. New Housing - **Overall Performance**: In the week of July 11 - 17, the new housing transaction area in 38 cities decreased by 6% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of 20% from July 1 - 17, weaker than previous months [3]. - **City - tier Analysis**: First - tier cities' new housing transaction area decreased by 24% month - on - month and 23% year - on - year. Second - tier cities' transaction area decreased by 1% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year. Third - tier cities' transaction area increased by 14% month - on - month but decreased by 10% year - on - year [3][4]. Key City Observation - **First - tier Cities**: In the week of July 11 - 17, first - tier cities' second - hand housing transaction area increased by 2% month - on - month but decreased by 9% year - on - year; new housing transaction area decreased by 24% month - on - month and 23% year - on - year. There were significant differences among Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [26]. - **Other Key Cities**: In Hangzhou, second - hand housing transaction area increased by 2% week - on - week, while new housing transaction area decreased by 44%. In Chengdu, second - hand housing transaction area increased by 5% week - on - week, and new housing transaction area decreased by 11% [28]. Housing Price Observation In the week of July 7 - 13, the second - hand housing listing prices in Shanghai increased by 0.46% month - on - month, while those in Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.29% and 0.77% respectively. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, the second - hand housing listing prices in all three cities decreased [55].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is at a critical juncture of "bottoming out" and "recovery," with a general decline in new home prices across first-tier cities, but a narrowing year-on-year decline, particularly noted in Shenzhen's resilience and adjustment pace [1][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, new home prices in first-tier cities showed a month-on-month decline, with Shenzhen experiencing the largest drop of 0.6%, marking the third consecutive month of decline [4]. - Year-on-year, Shenzhen's new home prices fell by 2.5%, which is less than the declines seen in other first-tier cities like Beijing and Guangzhou, which dropped by 4.1% and 5.1% respectively [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Shenzhen's price stability is attributed to structural differentiation in the new home market, where new regulatory products are impacting older projects, leading to price reductions in non-compliant projects while maintaining some price resilience in core areas due to strong demand [6]. - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen is also experiencing rational adjustments, with stable price declines driven by pragmatic seller attitudes and increased supply from new home products [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, there are signs of potential stabilization in the market, with upcoming long-term policy measures aimed at revitalizing demand and supply, including increased housing loan quotas and subsidies [7]. - The market is expected to benefit from a series of supportive policies from local and central governments, which may alleviate current pricing pressures [7]. Group 4: Buyer Guidance - For first-time buyers, focusing on core area new products with strong anti-decline characteristics is recommended, especially as policy optimizations lower entry costs [8]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, as the market has moved past the "universal growth era," and should concentrate on areas with sustained population inflow and strong industrial support [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices and sales, driven by targeted policies implemented by local governments [1][2]. Policy Effectiveness - The macroeconomic policies aimed at regulating the real estate market have shown significant effects, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline of new residential sales prices across first, second, and third-tier cities [1]. - In June, the year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices for first, second, and third-tier cities narrowed by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1]. - The year-on-year decline in second-hand residential sales prices in second and third-tier cities also narrowed, with reductions of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [1]. Market Trends - The overall trend indicates a stabilization in the real estate market, with new housing sales area and value experiencing a narrowing decline, suggesting a potential bottoming out [2]. - In the first half of the year, the national new residential sales area decreased by 3.5%, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year, while sales value fell by 5.5%, narrowing by 19.5 percentage points [2]. - The transaction volume in the real estate market has improved, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, which has seen an increase compared to the previous year [2]. Future Support Policies - It is anticipated that real estate support policies will be further intensified in the second half of the year, focusing on increasing the acquisition of affordable housing and expediting loan disbursements for key projects [3]. - There is an expectation for a potential reduction in mortgage rates in line with policy interest rate adjustments [3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The article discusses the changes in residential sales prices across 70 major cities in China for June 2025, highlighting a continued decline in prices both month-on-month and year-on-year, although the rate of decline is slowing. Group 1: Month-on-Month Price Changes - In June 2025, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai increasing by 0.4% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.6% respectively [2]. - Second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month, with declines in Beijing (1.0%), Shanghai (0.7%), Guangzhou (0.7%), and Shenzhen (0.5%) [2]. Group 2: Year-on-Year Price Changes - Year-on-year, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities dropped by 1.4%, a reduction in the decline rate by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Shanghai experienced a 6.0% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 4.1%, 5.1%, and 2.5% respectively [3]. - Second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, with the decline rate increasing by 0.3 percentage points. The specific declines were 1.8% in Beijing, 1.3% in Shanghai, 5.9% in Guangzhou, and 2.8% in Shenzhen [3]. Group 3: Price Trends in Second and Third-Tier Cities - New residential sales prices in second-tier cities fell by 3.0% year-on-year, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 4.6%, with both categories experiencing a narrowing of the decline rates by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively [3]. - Second-hand residential prices in second-tier cities decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, and third-tier cities saw a decline of 6.7%, with both categories also showing a narrowing of the decline rates [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant increase in Hong Kong's property market activity expected around March-April 2025, with a slight rise in the property price index observed in April-May 2025, leading banks to adopt a more positive stance on mortgage business [1] - The property price index from Midland Realty hit a low of 126.3 points in March and slightly rebounded to 127.5 points by the last week reported [1] - Factors contributing to the rebound in property prices include a "super rebound" from previous rapid declines, optimistic expectations regarding economic recovery, and a decrease in mortgage interest rates encouraging buyers to enter the market [1] Group 2 - Recent market activity shows that small and medium-sized unit buyers, along with first-time buyers, dominate the market, with popular unit prices ranging from 6 million to 7 million HKD, while units priced over 10 million HKD are experiencing lower liquidity [2] - The Hong Kong government's changes to the stamp duty policy, raising the threshold from 3 million HKD to 4 million HKD, have significantly impacted transaction volumes, with over 1,000 registrations for second-hand residential properties priced between 3 million and 4 million HKD in April, marking a new high since November 2016 [2] - The talent recruitment initiatives by the Hong Kong government have led to a reversal in the declining trend of the labor population since 2020, with 196,000 individuals arriving in Hong Kong as part of these measures [2] Group 3 - The company expresses a cautiously optimistic outlook for Hong Kong's property prices, predicting 45,000 new residential mortgage applications in 2025, ending a three-year decline since 2021, with existing home mortgages expected to rise by 10% to 55,500 applications [3] - The forecast for pre-sale mortgages is set at 6,500, representing a 55% increase compared to 2024, potentially reaching a five-year high [3] - However, uncertainties in geopolitical conditions and a high supply of new units, with approximately 24,000 units expected to be completed this year and nearly 100,000 over the next four years, may influence future price trends [3]