Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market is stabilizing due to factors such as the rebound of the Hang Seng Index and the influx of talent and capital, although 2024 is expected to see an increase in transaction volume but a decrease in prices, with second-hand transactions accounting for 80% of the market, indicating a mature market [1][9] - The dual-track system in Hong Kong's housing market is characterized by limited residential land supply, which constitutes only 7% of total land, leading to high property prices and rents, while the average living space is only 16 square meters and home ownership is low at 50.4% [1][6][7] - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is likely to positively impact the Hong Kong real estate market, potentially lowering mortgage rates and stimulating demand for owner-occupied housing [1][12] Company Insights: Hong Kong Property Companies - Hong Kong property companies generally adopt a mixed rental and sales model, with rental income being a significant portion of their revenue. This model enhances risk resilience and supports development activities, characterized by low leverage, low turnover, and high profitability [1][4][26] - Hong Kong property companies have a competitive edge in commercial real estate, particularly in high-end projects and luxury brand leasing, benefiting from strong brand recognition and operational capabilities [1][22][24] Investment Opportunities: Hong Kong REITs Market - The Hong Kong REITs market is mature, with local properties as underlying assets and the ability to invest overseas. The largest REIT, Link REIT, demonstrates strong asset management capabilities through active management and asset adjustments [2][27][28] - The average market capitalization of Hong Kong REITs is approximately HKD 7 billion, significantly larger than that of mainland REITs, which average around RMB 3 billion [27] Market Dynamics: Supply and Demand - The supply-demand relationship in the Hong Kong real estate market is imbalanced, with limited housing supply but no severe deterioration in conditions, maintaining significant investment value [3] - The residential land shortage is a critical factor leading to insufficient supply, with new supply units averaging only 20,000 to 30,000 annually, closely tied to post-pandemic economic conditions [8] Regulatory Environment and Taxation - The taxation framework in Hong Kong includes land rent and property tax, contributing about 10% to fiscal revenue. The unique housing situation, where half the population rents, results in substantial tax income [16] - Recent adjustments in transaction taxes have lowered buyer costs, leading to increased transaction volumes despite ongoing price declines [19] Population and Economic Factors - The introduction of talent attraction policies has led to a noticeable increase in population, supporting the real estate market despite a negative natural growth rate [20] - The relationship between the Hang Seng Index and property prices indicates that price movements typically lag behind index changes by 1 to 2 months, suggesting a correlation between market performance and investor sentiment [11] Comparative Analysis: Hong Kong vs. Mainland China - Hong Kong property companies differ from mainland counterparts by focusing more on rental income and mixed-use developments, while mainland firms primarily rely on property development [21] - The potential impact of new residential projects in the Northern Metropolis and Lantau Island on the Shenzhen and Hong Kong markets is expected to be limited due to distance [15] Conclusion - The Hong Kong real estate market is characterized by a unique dual-track system, a mature REITs market, and a distinct operational model among local property companies. The interplay of supply constraints, regulatory changes, and population dynamics will continue to shape investment opportunities and market performance in the coming years [1][5][20]

Core Viewpoint - The successful expansion of the Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT marks a significant milestone in China's public REITs market, indicating a dual-driven model of "initial issuance + expansion" that accelerates the normalization of REITs issuance [1][2] Group 1: Market Development - As of June 25, 2023, there are 66 public REITs listed in China, with 5 having completed expansions, totaling an issuance scale of 180.4 billion yuan, covering various asset types [1] - The total market value of public REITs reached 200 billion yuan on June 5, 2023, reflecting a steady growth trend in the market [1] - The approval of the first batch of data center REITs on June 18, 2023, signifies ongoing market expansion and diversification [1] Group 2: Expansion Mechanism - The expansion of REITs is viewed as a crucial mechanism for sustainable market development, allowing for asset scale growth and improved asset management quality [3] - The expansion project is expected to yield an annualized cash distribution rate of 4.11% by 2025, which is higher than the initial issuance rate, enhancing investor returns [2] - Since June 2023, 10 REITs have announced expansion plans, with 2 approved and 4 under review, indicating a growing trend in the market [3] Group 3: Financial Innovation and Social Impact - The successful expansion of the REITs project opens new sustainable financing pathways for affordable housing construction, demonstrating the role of financial innovation in supporting major social projects [2] - The potential for asset securitization of 1% to 2% of China's infrastructure stock, valued over 100 trillion yuan, could create a trillion-yuan scale REITs market, highlighting the importance of expansion [4] Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The current number of expansion projects in China's REITs market remains limited, which poses a challenge for long-term market vitality [5] - Balancing the interests of issuers, investors, and fund managers is critical for the success of the expansion mechanism, as it affects pricing and market efficiency [5] - Legal considerations for REITs expansion include the need for flexible rules to accommodate diverse asset types and optimize governance structures [6]

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market in China is undergoing further standardization with the release of expansion guidelines by both the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, aiming to enhance operational management and investor returns [1][2][3]. Regulatory Developments - On June 27, both exchanges issued guidelines and notifications regarding the expansion of public REITs, clarifying business processes and details [2]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange released a guide that specifies three methods for REITs expansion: sales to specific objects, allocation to existing fund holders, and public fundraising [4]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that its non-directional expansion functionality would be operational from June 30, allowing for both allocation to existing holders and public sales [5]. Market Performance - As of June 28, the total number of publicly traded REITs reached 68, with a combined market capitalization exceeding 206 billion yuan [8]. - The market has seen strong performance, with at least five REITs hitting the 30% limit on their first trading day, indicating high investor interest [9]. - The China Securities REITs Total Return Index recorded a nearly 15% increase year-to-date, outperforming other asset classes [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the REITs market could reach a market value of 400 to 500 billion yuan within three years, with the number of listed REITs exceeding 100 [10]. - The potential for domestic infrastructure assets is substantial, with estimates suggesting that the market could surpass one trillion yuan if a conservative securitization rate of 1% to 2% is applied [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - C - REITs have witnessed continuous expansion in the primary market and leading performance in the secondary market. As of June 16, 2025, 66 C - REITs have been listed, with a cumulative market value exceeding 200 billion yuan. The CSI REITs Total Return Index had a cumulative increase of 14.69% since the beginning of 2025 [4][10]. - Data center REITs, as new infrastructure assets, differ from traditional property - type REITs in terms of operation mode, income stability, and valuation logic. They may have a large premium space in the initial listing stage [3][20][34]. - The primary issuance of C - REITs has seen a booming market, and the secondary - market holdings are mainly by securities firm proprietary trading and insurance funds. Attention should be paid to the marginal increase brought by FOF funds [36][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Current Performance of C - REITs 3.1.1 Continuous Expansion in the Primary Market and Leading Performance in the Secondary Market - Since the listing of the first batch of 9 public REITs in June 2021, relevant policies have been introduced. In 2024, the issuance entered a new stage of normalization. As of June 16, 2025, 66 C - REITs have been listed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 180.4 billion yuan (including expansion) and a cumulative market value exceeding 200 billion yuan. In 2024, 29 C - REITs were issued, with a scale of 65.6 billion yuan. The CSI REITs Total Return Index had a cumulative increase of 14.69% since the beginning of 2025 and 31.57% since the beginning of 2024 [9][10]. - The underlying asset types of listed C - REITs cover nine major categories. In 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission proposed to support the issuance of REITs in new infrastructure fields, and on June 18, 2025, the first two data center REITs were approved [11]. 3.1.2 High Payout Ratio for Concession - type REITs and Focus on Residual Value for Property - type REITs - Listed C - REITs can be divided into property - type and concession - type. Property - type REITs have ownership of underlying assets, with income from rent and asset disposal. Concession - type REITs mainly rely on operating income during the product life cycle [14]. - The cash - flow structure of property - type and concession - type REITs differs. Generally, property - type REITs have a lower payout ratio during the product life cycle, and more cash - flow is concentrated at the end of the product life. Concession - type REITs may face the risk of their net asset value approaching zero over time [15]. 3.2 Differences of Data Center REITs - On June 18, 2025, the first two data center REITs, "Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT" and "Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT", were approved. They are listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges respectively, with Southern Fund as the fund manager [17]. 3.2.1 Operation Mode - Data centers are technology - intensive assets, highly dependent on professional operation and maintenance capabilities and continuous technological iteration. The industry chain consists of upstream infrastructure, mid - stream professional operation service providers, and downstream customers. The operation of data center REITs is more professional than traditional property - type REITs [21][24]. - Data centers are highly energy - consuming. Operators need to reduce PUE through technological upgrades and green energy applications. The PUE values of the two approved data center REITs in 2024 met the policy requirements, and they are expected to carry out liquid - cooling transformation in the future [25][26]. 3.2.2 Income Stability - Data center assets may have more stable income than traditional property - type REITs due to high customer concentration, long lease terms, high customer stickiness, high signing rates, and high rack - up rates. The signing rate and rack - up rate/charging rate are key operating indicators [26]. - Data center assets have a "large - order, few - customer" business model. Their customers are mainly large - scale enterprises, and the long - term and high - stickiness lease agreements ensure stable income. The signing rates of the two approved data center REITs are 100%, and the average rack - up rate/charging rate in Q1 2025 exceeded 95% [27][28][29]. 3.2.3 Valuation Logic - REITs are generally valued using the income approach. Although data center REITs and traditional property - type REITs both use this method, there are significant differences in cash - flow structure and discount rate [32][33]. - The residual value of data center REITs is relatively low, and they require a higher discount rate and should have a higher distribution rate than traditional property - type REITs [33]. 3.3 Who is Buying C - REITs? 3.3.1 Booming Primary Issuance - The issuance of C - REITs includes strategic placement, offline inquiry and pricing, offline placement, and public investor subscription. Strategic investors mainly include original equity holders and their affiliates, and their placement ratio is generally above 70%. Offline investors include various professional institutional investors, and the public investor subscription ratio is generally less than 10% [36][37][38]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the 7 newly - listed C - REITs have received high market enthusiasm. The average subscription ratios of offline and public investors have reached record lows since the beginning of 2024 [42]. 3.3.2 Secondary - Market Holdings Dominated by Securities Firm Proprietary Trading and Insurance Funds - As of the end of 2024, among C - REITs' investors, securities firm proprietary trading and insurance funds held the largest shares, accounting for 58.49% of the shares excluding original equity holders and their affiliates [43]. - Among securities firm proprietary trading, the top five in terms of cumulative holdings are Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, CITIC Construction, CICC, and Orient Securities. Among insurance funds, the top five are China Life Group, Taikang Insurance, New China Life Insurance, Pacific Life Insurance, and China Life Capital [44][46]. 3.4 Investment Analysis Opinion - Data center REITs, as an important part of "new infrastructure", may have a large premium space in the initial listing stage. Investors are advised to actively participate in the offline issuance of the two approved data center REITs to lock in the premium income at the initial listing stage [34][51].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Link Real Estate Investment Trust (0823 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 50.59 [1][8] Core Views - Link REIT is the first listed REIT in Hong Kong, focusing on essential consumer scenarios with a total asset valuation of approximately HKD 225.8 billion. The annualized return for unit holders since listing is 10.9%, highlighting its high yield and stable growth characteristics. Factors such as RMB appreciation, population recovery, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and inclusion in the Stock Connect are expected to drive valuation recovery [1][19][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes that the appreciation of the RMB and the recovery of the resident population are likely to boost the Hong Kong retail sector, creating a favorable environment for local retail recovery [2][20]. - The widening dividend yield spread and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve enhance Link REIT's investment appeal, with the current yield spread at 204 basis points, above the historical average of 187 basis points [3][21]. - The potential inclusion in the Stock Connect could attract long-term funds and increase demand for Link REIT, which has a strong focus on essential consumer assets and a robust ability to withstand economic cycles [3][22]. Differentiation from Market Views - The report argues that concerns regarding the Hong Kong retail sector's performance are manageable, with the stock price having corrected approximately 44% from its 2019 peak, indicating that pessimistic expectations are largely priced in. The report suggests that the market has not fully priced in the positive impacts of RMB appreciation, population recovery, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][23]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The projected distributable amounts for Link REIT for the fiscal years 2026-2028 are HKD 69.08 billion, HKD 69.82 billion, and HKD 70.52 billion, reflecting a slight decline in 2026 followed by modest growth in subsequent years. The report uses a dividend discount model for valuation, arriving at a target price of HKD 50.59 based on a long-term dividend growth rate of 0.5% [5][19].

Group 1: FedEx - FedEx announced a dividend increase of $0.28 (5%) to $5.80 per share, effective July 8, with a yield of 2.6% [4][8] - The company reported a slight year-over-year revenue increase to over $22 billion, but a 12% rise in non-GAAP net income to just under $1.1 billion [5] - Despite beating revenue estimates, FedEx's profitability fell short, and management has continually reduced guidance for fiscal 2025, leading to investor caution [6][8] Group 2: Realty Income - Realty Income raised its dividend by a modest 0.2%, resulting in a payout slightly under $0.27 per share, with a yield of 5.6% [9][12] - The company focuses on leasing to stable businesses, such as supermarkets and home improvement stores, and has expanded into new segments and regions [10] - Realty Income's first-quarter revenue increased nearly 10% year-over-year to $1.38 billion, with adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) rising slightly above 10% [11]

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market has shown strong growth since its inception in 2021, with a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan and 66 projects listed, making it the largest in the Asia-Pacific region [2][7][11] - The market is currently in a policy dividend period, supported by favorable regulations and increasing investor recognition, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [6][4] - The investment attractiveness of REITs is gradually increasing, with a rebound in secondary market valuations and a year-to-date return of 17.4% as of June 13, 2025 [14][4] Market Development Review - The market has benefited from progressive policies, including the issuance of the National Development and Reform Commission's 1014 document, which has laid a foundation for sustainable growth [6][2] - New asset types, such as data centers and senior living facilities, are gaining traction, with significant oversubscription rates for recent projects, indicating strong market demand [7][11] - The issuance of holding-type real estate ABS has reached 13.603 billion yuan, contributing to the development of a multi-tiered REITs market [11][14] Future Market Outlook - The expansion of asset types and the acceleration of initial offerings and expansions are expected to enhance the market ecosystem, providing diverse investment options for investors [25][26] - The construction of a multi-tiered REITs market is deemed necessary to cater to varying risk preferences and asset development stages, covering the entire lifecycle from cultivation to exit [27][28] - Increasing the diversity of the investor base, including public funds and foreign capital, is essential for enhancing market liquidity and depth [29][4] Investment Strategy - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage," the REITs market is viewed positively for the second half of the year, although valuation risks should be monitored as the market valuation center rises [4][37] - Strategies such as primary market participation, dividend trading, and expansion gaming are recommended for investors to optimize returns [42][46][49] - The market's performance is expected to be influenced by new issuances and unlockings in the second half of the year, with a total of 28 projects involving 26.8 billion yuan set to unlock [40][41]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、 二级市场 2025年6月9日-2025年6月13日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公募REITs二级市场价格整体呈现稳步上 行的趋势：加权REITs指数收于143.48，本周回报率为0.74%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低 排序分别为：原油>黄金> REITs>美股>纯债>A股>可转债。 从单只REIT层面来看，本周单只REIT成交规模和换手率方面表现延续分化。成交量方面，周内成交量前 三的是华安张江产业园REIT/华夏中国交建REIT/博时蛇口产园REIT；成交额方面，周内成交额前三的是 华夏中国交建REIT/中金安徽交控REIT/国泰君安城投宽庭保租房REIT。 主力净流入：本周主力净流入总额为-1230. ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a return rate of approximately 10% for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in 2025, with varying growth potential across different property types [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Expected Returns - The expected return for REITs in 2025 is driven by a 4% dividend yield, 2%-7% growth in funds from operations (FFO), and potential valuation expansion [1] Market Performance - REITs have shown strong performance at the start of 2025, but recent market volatility makes future trends uncertain [1] - Historical trends indicate that when economic downturn risks transition from mere concerns to actual impacts on corporate earnings, market focus on REITs tends to increase [1] Interest Rate Impact - Higher interest rates, particularly the influence of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, pose risks to stock performance [1] Earnings Expectations - REIT earnings are projected to grow by approximately 3% in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with an acceleration to nearly 6% growth expected by 2026 [1] - The growth opportunities for REITs are anticipated as more real estate assets re-enter the market, which could drive earnings acceleration in 2026 [1] - In the event of a significant economic slowdown, REITs may exhibit greater earnings resilience compared to most market sectors [1] Key REITs with High Returns - Notable REITs expected to exceed a 10% return in 2025 include: - Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC.US) - Paramount Group (PGRE.US) - EPR Properties (EPR.US) - American Healthcare REIT (AHR.US) - Peakstone Realty Trust (PKST.US) - Welltower (WELL.US) - JBG SMITH Properties (JBGS.US) - American Tower (AMT.US) - Medical Properties Trust (MPW.US) - W. P. Carey (WPC.US) - NETSTREIT (NTST.US) - Alexander's (ALX.US) - Postal Realty Trust (PSTL.US) - VICI Properties (VICI.US) - SBA Communications (SBAC.US) - Crown Castle (CCI.US) [1]

6月8日，领展房地产投资信托基金发布公告，针对近期媒体关于其可能计划将中国内地及香港以外若干 物业分拆为单独上市实体的猜测进行澄清。 公告显示，领展董事会注意到若干媒体报导猜测领展房托可能计划将其在中国内地及香港以外若干物业 分拆为单独上市实体。董事会谨此澄清，领展作为积极的管理人，会定期就各项资本及其他企业交易进 行可行性研究，包括所猜测的潜在分拆上市，务求为领展房托的基金单位持有人创造价值及增进长远利 益。然而，有关可行性研究可能会或可能不会引致任何交易。 领展表示，若进行任何潜在交易，将会在需要时严格遵守香港联合交易所有限公司证券上市规则及房地 产投资信托基金守则的相关规定。同时，领展也表示，除已披露的信息外，并不知悉任何根据上市规则 及 / 或房地产投资信托基金守则需予披露的其他资料。 财报数据显示，领展2024/2025财年收益仍达142.23亿港元，同比增长4.8%，物业收入净额增长5.5%至 106.19亿港元。截至2025年3月31日，领展共拥有154项物业资产，其中130项位于香港，12项位于内 地，12项分布在澳大利亚、新加坡和英国，总估值达到2260亿港元。 具体表现来看，期内香港物业组 ...