以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 一、美伊冲突僵局，风险偏好持续承压，关注支持"第一阶段上涨"的资金短期集中退坡(行业ETF规模收缩，年金减仓避免净值损失，"固收+"减 仓和赎回)，这使得，眼前可能已经是压力最大阶段。行稳致远政策发力在情理之中，需注意行稳致远结构与绝对收益减仓结构可能存在差异， 构成尾部风险。 我们依然提示，中期变数被低估：1. 对中美而言，货币紧缩应对输入性通胀都是下策。提升通胀容忍度是大概率。2. 美国经济有韧性，中国经济 有腾挪空间，衰退不是基准假设。3. 地缘政治僵局，中国能源安全、供应链安全可能是全球Alpha。即便，美伊冲突中期仍有反复，对A股的冲 击逐步减弱是大概率。 美伊冲突陷入僵局，各界对中东新秩序的准备均不足。但新平衡的形成，仍需要长时间的博弈。这体现为，短期事件性扰动仍在反复，资本市场 风险偏好直接承压。短期市场推演美伊冲突影响，主要类比两次石油危机的经验：油价上涨，运费提升 → 通胀升温 → 货币紧缩 → 经济衰退， 确认滞胀周期 → 股市基本面和估值共振回落。这样的逻辑链条，短期无法证伪。同时，我们关注，支持" ...

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping nearly 2000 points, a decrease of over 3% [2] - The KOSPI index in South Korea fell by 5%, triggering a market circuit breaker that paused trading for 5 minutes [4] Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices fell below $4430 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 3%, while silver prices dropped nearly 1% [5] Economic Insights - Citic Securities noted that key issues regarding the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts will gradually be resolved by April, with the market currently in a narrative-driven phase reflecting liquidity tightening [7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply from 3.97% at the end of February to 4.39%, the highest level since August of the previous year [7] Investment Strategy - The focus should remain on sectors where China has a competitive advantage in pricing power, particularly in new energy, chemicals, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals [8] - The recent liquidity shock has brought valuations of several sectors back to attractive levels, similar to the post-April 7, 2022, scenario for overseas products [8] - Key areas for investment include low-valuation factors, particularly in insurance, brokerage, and electric power sectors, with price increases expected to be a significant theme in 2024 [8]

Macroeconomic Overview - The policy focus is on the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and the construction of a unified national market, aiming for high-quality economic recovery through precise investment and institutional optimization [2] - External demand shows more resilience than internal demand, with improvements in shipping and cargo tonnage at major ports, leading to synchronized increases in domestic and foreign shipping prices [2] - Domestic consumption remains weak, particularly in the automotive sector, which is affected by a policy transition period, while real estate sales continue to favor older properties over new ones [2] - Production indicators in coal, steel, and petrochemicals are generally weak, with many core production metrics at low levels compared to the same period last year [2] - Input inflation is driven by rising oil prices, impacting the energy and chemical sectors, while domestic demand remains insufficient to support a rebound in construction materials [2] Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to find an important bottom and rebound point, with stability being crucial and confidence as a key factor [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below critical levels, with the average adjustment across the A-share market nearing 9%, and the CSI 1000 down by 10% [5] - Recent market adjustments are attributed to inflation risks and expectations of financial tightening, alongside a loosening micro-trading structure [5] - Despite external conflicts not directly impacting China, market risk appetite has decreased due to uncertainty [5] - The current market position suggests that blind selling is not advisable, as the Chinese stock market is poised for a significant rebound [5] Energy and Financial Tightening Risks - Investor concerns about energy price shocks and financial tightening are prevalent, with historical references indicating resilience in the market despite such shocks [7] - Risk pricing evolves through three stages: expectation shock, reality shock, and return to growth logic [7] - The end of risk pricing does not require the cessation of risks but rather a stabilization in their intensity [7] - The Chinese central bank emphasizes a supportive monetary stance, which, combined with increased technological investment, can help break the risk narrative [7] Industry Comparison - Financial and stability sectors remain preferred, with high dividend yields offering investment value, recommending sectors such as banking, electricity, highways, and coal [9] - Technology manufacturing and energy transition sectors are expected to benefit from energy shocks, with recommendations for power equipment, new energy vehicles, and engineering machinery [9] - The AI sector is projected to grow significantly, with increased investment expected to accelerate domestic production lines [9] - Domestic demand is anticipated to rise due to stable investment policies and inflation recovery, with recommendations for construction materials, real estate, hotels, and consumer goods [9] Banking Sector Dynamics - The banking industry is returning to a phase dominated by large banks, with state-owned banks expected to increase their asset share to 43.3% by the end of 2025 [12] - City commercial banks are showing strong regional economic resilience, benefiting from fixed asset investments and industrial upgrades [12] - Shareholding banks are generally reducing high-risk business exposure, leading to a decline in market share [12] - The market share of large banks in deposits is projected to rise to 54.0% by October 2025, driven by a shift in deposit dynamics [14] - In terms of loans, large banks maintain a competitive edge, with their market share expected to reach 46.1% by the end of 2024 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The micro trading impact is expected to be short-lived, and it is not advisable to blindly sell off at the current position. The Chinese stock market is likely to see an important bottom and rebound zone, supported by a loose monetary stance and diversified reserves [2]. Investment Highlights - The Chinese stock market is expected to find an important bottom and rebound point, with stability as the base and confidence as the key. The Shanghai Composite Index has broken key levels, with the average adjustment of the entire A-share market close to 9% and the CSI 1000 down by 10%. Recent market adjustments are attributed to inflation risks and financial tightening expectations, as well as loosening micro trading structures. Despite external conflicts not directly impacting China, the unclear situation has reduced market risk appetite. The simultaneous adjustment of stocks and bonds has created investment constraints for institutions with high leverage and positions since the beginning of the year. The impact of micro trading shocks is expected to be short-lived, and the current position should not be blindly sold off. While inflation risks are still to peak, it is important to recognize that Chinese assets have improved productivity and a relatively stable security situation, making them scarce even globally [4][9]. Pricing of Energy Shock and Financial Tightening Risks - The pricing of energy shocks and financial tightening risks can be divided into three stages: expectation shock, reality shock, and return to growth logic. Historical references indicate that the U.S. stock market showed resilience and rebound despite the challenges posed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and multiple Fed rate hikes in 2022. The first stage involves expectation shocks, where oil prices surged and the U.S. stock market fell. The second stage is the reality shock, where the intensity of the conflict did not escalate further, leading to a decline in oil prices and a stabilization of risk pricing. The third stage is the return to growth logic, marked by advancements in the U.S. AI industry and increased capital expenditure. Key insights include that risk pricing ends not with the cessation of risks but when their intensity no longer rises, and the market's growth capability becomes crucial post-risk pricing [5][14]. Industry Comparison - Financial and stable sectors remain preferred, with Chinese technology manufacturing and stable domestic demand being key to breaking the narrative of stagflation. The financial and stability sectors are seen as important stabilizers with high dividend yields, recommending investments in banks, electricity, highways, and coal. The technology manufacturing and energy transition sectors, particularly companies with global competitiveness and cost advantages, are expected to benefit from energy shocks and transitions, recommending investments in power equipment, new energy vehicles, and engineering machinery. The AI sector is anticipated to grow significantly, with increased technology investment expected to drive domestic production growth by 2026, recommending investments in semiconductors, communication equipment, and machinery. Domestic demand is expected to be bolstered by stable investment policies and rising inflation, recommending investments in construction materials, real estate, hotels, and consumer goods [6][15]. Thematic Recommendations - 1. Energy Transition: Focus on new energy infrastructure and advanced energy equipment benefiting from clean energy transitions, with investment opportunities in power grids, new energy storage, and nuclear fusion energy. 2. Computing Power Collaboration: Emphasizing the integration of computing power, electricity, and energy storage, with investment opportunities in computing facilities, digital power grids, and green power operators. 3. Token Globalization: Chinese models are increasingly called upon globally, with investment opportunities in leading model companies and domestic computing power. 4. Commercial Aerospace: The acceleration of low-orbit satellite internet networks and new technology breakthroughs, with investment opportunities in medium and large rocket manufacturing and launch services [22][23][24][26][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is currently facing significant uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and economic conditions, with a decisive direction expected to emerge around April [2] - The article discusses three key unresolved questions regarding the Iran conflict, U.S. Federal Reserve's focus, and China's economic situation, which are crucial for market predictions [2] - The market has seen some short-term reduction in positions, particularly in previously high-performing sectors, but overall returns have reverted to the starting line since the beginning of the year [2] Group 2 - The article identifies sectors that may maintain independent high prosperity despite geopolitical tensions and high oil prices, highlighting the importance of sectors like optical communication and energy storage [3] - It suggests that sectors with upward trends and less sensitivity to oil prices, such as energy storage and domestic AIDC chains, should be prioritized for investment [3] Group 3 - The current phase is described as potentially the most pressured stage due to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with a focus on the divergence between stable policy and absolute return strategies [4] - The article emphasizes that the mid-term variables are underestimated, particularly regarding inflation tolerance and the resilience of the U.S. and Chinese economies [4][5] Group 4 - A-shares are expected to have limited downside potential, with the market likely to experience oscillation and structural rotation as it absorbs external pressures [6] - Key sectors to watch include energy-related industries, defensive assets, and technology innovation sectors, with a focus on undervalued consumer segments [6] Group 5 - The market is anticipated to undergo a prolonged period of consolidation due to the impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict and changing expectations regarding interest rates [7] - The article highlights three investment directions: industries benefiting from high oil prices, stable cash flow defensive stocks, and certain growth sectors that may be undervalued [7] Group 6 - China's manufacturing sector is positioned for a value reassessment, with leading industries in coal chemical and power equipment showing resilience and potential for growth [8] - The article notes that China's energy system's completeness reduces vulnerability to external shocks and enhances its role in global energy supply [8] Group 7 - The narrative around the rise of physical assets remains intact, with a focus on energy security and the potential for China's manufacturing sector to serve as a stabilizing force in the global economy [9] - Investment recommendations include sectors related to energy, manufacturing, and consumer goods that are expected to benefit from structural changes in the market [9] Group 8 - The current market adjustment is attributed to concerns over economic stagnation and escalating conflict risks, with a potential for market recovery when sentiment is at its lowest [11] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors that benefit from rising oil prices and those with clear growth prospects, particularly in technology and renewable energy [11] Group 9 - The market is expected to remain under pressure from external factors, but there are positive indicators such as proactive monetary policy and strong early economic data [12] - The article suggests a dual focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with an emphasis on clean energy and resource-related investments [12] Group 10 - The outlook for the market suggests a gradual stabilization post-mid-March, with a focus on both growth and value sectors, particularly in energy and technology [13] - The article encourages investment in sectors that are likely to benefit from ongoing trends in AI and traditional industries undergoing value reassessment [13] Group 11 - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and shifting interest rate expectations are impacting global markets, with a focus on stable domestic policies providing a clearer investment environment [14] - Recommended sectors include defensive strategies, energy independence, and high-growth areas such as AI and energy storage [14]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent market downturn is primarily driven by a strong dollar rather than weak demand, as the US-Iran conflict has reversed the previous "weak dollar" narrative[2] - Prior to the conflict, the dollar was weak, leading to capital outflows from dollar assets, with US stocks underperforming globally[2] - Following the outbreak of the conflict, the dollar index rebounded significantly, resulting in a relative resilience of US stocks compared to other global markets[2] Group 2: Economic Structure and Energy Consumption - The US economy, with a service-oriented structure, consumes significantly less traditional energy per unit of GDP compared to other economies, which mitigates the impact of energy shocks[3] - Traditional energy consumption is higher in manufacturing sectors, particularly in East Asian economies, which face greater pressure from supply chain disruptions[3] - The current global economic landscape reflects a shift in asset performance, with a preference for sectors less reliant on traditional energy consumption[3] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - The recent decline in commodity prices is attributed to a reallocation of dollar liquidity rather than an outright recession, with expectations of monetary policy tightening being overly pessimistic[4] - The market's current pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is extreme, with a significant discrepancy between market expectations and the Fed's own projections[4] - The decline in commodity prices, particularly in higher-value items, indicates a shift in market dynamics influenced by the strong dollar[4] Group 4: Chinese Market Opportunities - Amid rising global energy security concerns, China's advantages in coal chemical and power equipment industries are becoming more apparent[5] - China's solar energy production capacity is equivalent to 24% of the total oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting its potential as a global energy alternative[5] - The valuation of leading Chinese manufacturing firms is at historically low levels, suggesting a potential for revaluation as domestic demand shows signs of recovery[5]

Market Overview - Global capital markets are focused on the ongoing Middle East conflict, which is expected to persist in the short term, leading to sustained high oil prices[5] - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year has decreased, with a slight probability of a rate hike emerging, reinforcing global "stagflation" trading consensus[5] - Major global stock markets have largely declined in unison, reflecting these concerns[5] Historical Context - Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, oil prices surged, significantly driving inflation and causing substantial volatility in global equity markets[7] - During the initial downturn, all sectors weakened, with coal, real estate, and banking showing the least decline, each with a drop of less than 9%[7] - The subsequent recovery phase saw the new energy sector lead the market, with power equipment, automotive, and non-ferrous metals showing significant gains, particularly power equipment which rebounded over 55%[7] Investment Strategy - Short-term recommendations focus on dividend and stable styles due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and high oil prices, which may lead to volatility in A-shares[29] - Mid-term strategies should target the new energy sector and high-growth HALO industries benefiting from AI expansion, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaic equipment and battery manufacturing, which are expected to see significant profit growth by 2026[3][29] HALO Industry Insights - The HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) concept is gaining traction, characterized by business models based on large physical assets with low technological obsolescence risk[17] - The top ten HALO industries expected to see the highest net profit growth by 2026 include photovoltaic equipment, coking, batteries, and shipping ports[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, geopolitical events exceeding forecasts, and overseas liquidity conditions not meeting projections[30]

Investment Ratings - Electric Power Equipment: Buy (Maintain) [1] - Environmental Protection: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing high-cut low market conditions, emphasizing energy security and performance as key investment themes. The Iranian situation has escalated, leading to increased focus on energy infrastructure and commodity prices, with significant volatility in the market. The current market is prioritizing performance metrics [2]. - In the electric power sector, the North American electricity shortage chain, which previously had high valuations, is undergoing adjustments. The sectors related to energy crises, particularly household/commercial storage and European offshore wind, are performing well. The photovoltaic sector has seen a rebound due to Tesla's procurement plans for solar equipment [2]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like DeYue Co., Daikin Heavy Industries, TianShun Wind Energy, Airo Energy, and GoodWe in the energy storage and offshore wind sectors, as they are expected to benefit from sustained demand even post-conflict [2]. - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to see continued catalysts if North American orders are fulfilled, with key companies to watch including JinkoSolar, Foster, JinkoSolar, and Laplace [2]. - The lithium battery and energy storage sectors are highlighted for their strong performance in upcoming financial reports, with companies like CATL, Defu Technology, and Sungrow Power to be monitored closely [2][3]. Summary by Sections Electric Power Equipment - The North American electricity shortage logic remains strong, with high volatility expected in high-valued stocks. The report recommends focusing on undervalued electric power equipment stocks such as Teradyne, Siyuan Electric, and Sifang Co. [3]. Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage capacity pricing policies have been released, and there is ongoing discussion about their impact on installations in 2026/27. Key indicators to monitor include regional coal power pricing, project lists, and market price differentials. The report suggests that low-valuation leading stocks in energy storage are likely to rebound [6]. - In the overseas market, the logic of electricity shortages in the U.S. is expected to continue, with significant potential for rebounds in North American energy storage stocks [6]. - The U.K.'s "Warm Homes Plan" and ongoing energy repairs in Ukraine are expected to sustain demand for household storage solutions [6]. Wind Power - According to the National Energy Administration, China's onshore wind power installations are projected to reach 110.0 GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45.14%, while offshore wind installations are expected to reach 6.6 GW, a 63.12% increase [7]. - The report indicates that the wind power sector is experiencing a high degree of project releases, with significant growth expected in installations from 2026 to 2030 [18]. Photovoltaics - The report notes that prices across the photovoltaic supply chain are stabilizing but under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels. The silicon material prices have been declining, while the prices for silicon wafers have stabilized [27]. - The report emphasizes that all segments of the photovoltaic industry are currently facing operational pressures, with no profits reported as of March 18, 2026 [27].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][71] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the lithium battery sector, with advancements in solid-state batteries from Chery and Yiwei Lithium Energy, indicating sustained optimism in the lithium battery market [2][10] - A landmark event in the photovoltaic sector is Tesla's plan to invest approximately $2.9 billion in Chinese photovoltaic equipment, aiming to establish a 100GW annual production capacity in the U.S. by the end of 2028, marking a pivotal moment for Chinese photovoltaic equipment companies [3][20][22] - In the wind power sector, the UK is set to accelerate the AR8 renewable energy contract allocation, while multiple regions in China are advancing offshore wind development goals under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][34][35] - The nuclear fusion industry is gaining strategic importance, with recent policy signals elevating its status within national development priorities, indicating a shift towards commercialization and ecosystem development [4][42][44] - The energy storage market is experiencing growth in EPC bidding and a new trading model in Guangxi, which enhances the profitability of storage assets [51][53] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - Solid-state battery advancements from Chery and Yiwei Lithium Energy are noted, with Chery planning to expand its solid-state battery team significantly [10][11] - February saw a year-on-year increase in battery production and sales, with total production reaching 141.6GWh and sales at 113.2GWh [11] 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - Tesla's $2.9 billion order for Chinese photovoltaic equipment is a historic milestone, expected to reshape the global supply chain and enhance the profitability of Chinese manufacturers [20][22] - The report discusses price trends in the photovoltaic supply chain, with significant price drops in polysilicon and solar cells, indicating a challenging market environment [23][25] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - The UK is expediting the AR8 renewable energy contract allocation process, with expectations for multiple offshore wind projects to participate [34] - Domestic regions are setting ambitious offshore wind development targets, with Shandong and Jiangsu leading initiatives [35] 2.3 Nuclear Fusion Sector - The report emphasizes the strategic elevation of nuclear fusion within national policy, marking a transition towards a more structured industry development approach [42][44] 3. Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage market is seeing a significant increase in EPC bidding, with a notable rise in the scale of projects awarded [51][52] - Guangxi's new trading model for energy storage is highlighted as a breakthrough, enhancing the profitability of storage projects [53] 4. Power Equipment Sector - The report notes a substantial increase in fixed asset investment in power grids, with growth rates exceeding 80% for both State Grid and Southern Grid [60][61] - Key projects in high-voltage and distribution networks are advancing, providing clear visibility for orders in the equipment supply chain [61]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently confirming expectation discrepancies amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.38% this week[13] - Daily trading volume averaged 2.21 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 287.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week[13] Historical Resilience - Since 2020, A-shares have shown strong resilience against global shocks, with negative impacts typically concluding within a week[19] - Historical data indicates that after significant external shocks, A-share indices have generally recovered to pre-shock levels within one month, with a recovery probability of approximately 68.8% since 2020[24] Investment Strategy - During periods of external shocks, it is advisable to reduce positions and manage risks, with a focus on cash holdings to capture excess returns when market conditions stabilize[19] - In the rebound phase, sectors with strong policy support and supply-demand dynamics are expected to outperform, particularly in energy security and AI-related industries[6] Sector Allocation - Dividend-paying stocks are favored during adjustment periods, although they are not absolute safe havens; they still exhibit risk characteristics[27] - Key sectors during the current geopolitical tensions include coal, photovoltaic, hydropower, and energy storage, which are expected to benefit from rising industrial demand[33] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic policy changes and escalations in geopolitical tensions, which could impact market stability[44]