Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is facing significant challenges due to intense competition, leading to a situation where increased production does not translate into higher profits. The central government has proposed measures to address these issues and promote sustainable development in the sector [1]. Industry Summary - The petrochemical sector is experiencing "involution" competition, characterized by low-quality and homogeneous products, which has resulted in a widespread profit squeeze among companies [1]. - The central government has outlined comprehensive rectification requirements to combat this issue, emphasizing self-regulation, the role of industry associations, and the leadership of major enterprises in standardizing operations [1]. - Key strategies for improvement include enhancing innovation to achieve product differentiation, focusing on high-end technology, and phasing out non-compliant production capacities based on energy efficiency and environmental standards [1]. Company Summary - As of August 12, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (H11057) include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, Sinopec, and others, collectively accounting for 56.18% of the index [1]. - The petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index and has shown an upward trend, reflecting the value proposition in the sector [1].

《通知》称，有关省级化工园区认定管理机构要组织竞争力三级、智慧化初始级化工园区诊断剖析短板 弱项问题，于2025年底前制定专业化改造方案。 8月8日，工业和信息化部办公厅、自然资源部办公厅、生态环境部办公厅、交通运输部办公厅、应急管 理部办公厅发布《关于推进化工园区规范建设和高质量发展有关工作的通知》（以下简称《通知》）。 《通知》提出，严格化工园区认定管理。有关省级化工园区认定管理机构要按照工业和信息化部反馈的 整改意见，于10月30日前修订完善省级细则。修订工作完成前，暂停认定化工园区；对已认定的化工园 区，要按照修订后的省级细则，于2025年底前完成复核。 《通知》称，有关省级化工园区认定管理机构要组织竞争力三级、智慧化初始级化工园区诊断剖析短板 弱项问题，于2025年底前制定专业化改造方案，督促指导有关化工园区对标改造、提级进步；支持竞争 力二级、智慧化提升级化工园区在创新驱动、绿色低碳、可持续发展、智慧化转型等方面进一步完善提 升。 工业和信息化部办公厅 自然资源部办公厅 生态环境部办公厅 交通运输部办公厅 应急管理部办公厅 关于推进化工园区规范建设和高质量发展有关工作的通知 有关省、自治区、直辖市 ...

智通财经APP获悉，8月8日，工业和信息化部办公厅、自然资源部办公厅、生态环境部办公厅、交通运 输部办公厅、应急管理部办公厅发布《关于推进化工园区规范建设和高质量发展有关工作的通知》。其 中提到，有关省级化工园区认定管理机构要组织竞争力三级、智慧化初始级化工园区诊断剖析短板弱项 问题，于2025年底前制定专业化改造方案，督促指导有关化工园区对标改造、提级进步；支持竞争力二 级、智慧化提升级化工园区在创新驱动、绿色低碳、可持续发展、智慧化转型等方面进一步完善提升。 二、开展化工园区评价及改造 原文如下： 工业和信息化部办公厅 自然资源部办公厅 生态环境部办公厅 交通运输部办公厅 应急管理部办公厅 关于推进化工园区规范建设和高质量发展有关工作的通知 有关省、自治区、直辖市及新疆生产建设兵团工业和信息化、自然资源、生态环境、交通运输、应急管 理主管部门： 化工园区是石化化工行业高质量发展的重要载体。《化工园区建设标准和认定管理办法(试行)》印发以 来，各地积极推进化工园区认定工作，化工园区安全环境风险显著降低，发展质量明显提升。为持续做 好化工园区规范化建设和认定管理，推动化工园区由规范建设向高质量发展迈进。现就有 ...

"反内卷"背景下的石化化工行业展望 20250803 摘要 当前石化行业面临新一轮供给侧改革，核心在于控制新增产能，优化现 有资源配置，推动产业向精细化、高附加值方向转型，以应对需求变化 和新能源发展带来的挑战。炼油产能接近 10 亿吨红线，乙烯、乙二醇 和聚乙烯项目大幅增加，促使政策严格控制新增产能。 工信部可能发布石化稳增长方案，包括总量控制与减量置换、项目审核 更加严格、淘汰老旧装置和鼓励创新。新增炼油项目需淘汰等量或更高 比例的旧产能，碳排放、能耗、安全风险成为项目核准的重要指标，高 能耗、高污染的老旧装置将被设定时间表淘汰。 老旧石化装置面临环保和能效双重挑战，需在 2026 年前完成改造或退 出市场。改造需投入大量成本并达到新的环保标准，小型炼厂面临关停 或搬迁整合。科技创新受鼓励，高端化新材料、功能性高分子等产业将 得到支持。 中国乙烯行业存在大量老旧产能（约 800 万吨），面临整改或退出，对 下游聚乙烯、乙二醇等产业产生影响。新建纯炼油项目几乎不再可能， 煤制烯烃和丙烷脱氢等路线受关注。有规模、技术和资金的大型企业及 煤化工存量资产将受益。 Q&A 未来石化行业可能会受到哪些具体影响？ 未来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a widespread dilemma of increasing production without increasing profits, with the industry's operating revenue profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, and remaining low in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The low-quality and homogeneous competition is primarily due to excessive investment and repeated construction, resulting in product homogenization, along with local governments' blind investment promotion exacerbating overcapacity [1] - The central government has proposed comprehensive rectification requirements to address these issues, including strengthening self-discipline, promoting innovation, and eliminating non-compliant capacity based on energy efficiency and environmental standards [2] Group 2: Policy Developments - The chemical industry has seen a gradual deepening of anti-involution policies this year, with significant measures introduced such as the "National Unified Market Construction Guidelines" aimed at curbing repeated construction and market segmentation [2] - In June, a joint notice was issued by five ministries to assess old facilities in the refining and fertilizer sectors, focusing on safety, environmental protection, and energy efficiency to promote the exit of inefficient capacity [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The industry is expected to see opportunities for supply-side reforms in areas with significant homogeneous competition, such as refining and certain pesticide varieties, as state-owned enterprises control capacity and new project approvals are restricted [3] - By August 2025, a recovery in overseas demand for certain chemical products and further domestic demand growth is anticipated, with a focus on investment in sectors with improved supply-demand dynamics and scarce resource attributes, particularly electronic resins [4] Group 4: Price Trends - As of July 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported a decline of 5.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating a slight decrease in the prices of major chemical products [3] - International crude oil prices showed an upward trend in July, with Brent crude rising from $67.11 to $73.24 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal fuel consumption [4] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The electronic resin sector is poised for growth due to increasing demand for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The phosphate fertilizer market is experiencing price increases driven by overseas agricultural recovery and supply disruptions, while the pesticide sector is expected to see price recovery due to increased demand and limited supply growth [5][6]

Group 1 - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology and the Provincial Communications Administration have launched a special action plan for network and data security to support new industrialization by 2025 [1][2] - By the end of 2025, a list of key enterprises for network security protection will be established, with at least 300 enterprises conducting self-classification and verification, and at least 50 enterprises participating in network security standard compliance trials [1][2] - The action plan emphasizes the importance of managing key industries within the province's "1650" industrial system, including raw materials, consumer goods, and electronic information sectors [2] Group 2 - The plan includes regular risk assessments, remote monitoring, and on-site diagnostics for key enterprises in the "Build Peak and Strengthen Chain" initiative, aimed at enhancing network security services in the industrial sector [2] - Focus will be placed on industries such as petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and intelligent connected vehicles, with ongoing special actions to strengthen data security risk prevention [2] - The initiative will also involve the classification and grading of data security, identifying enterprises that possess critical core technologies and are vital for the stability of the industrial chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a decline in profit margins, with the industry's operating revenue profit margin expected to drop from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, and remaining low in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges and Policy Responses - The current phase of the petrochemical industry is characterized by chaotic competition, resulting in a situation where increased production does not lead to increased profits [1] - The central government has proposed comprehensive rectification measures to address these issues, including enhancing self-discipline, promoting innovation, and eliminating non-compliant production capacity based on energy efficiency and environmental standards [1] - Recent policies have shifted from institutional construction to special rectification, with measures such as the introduction of the "National Unified Market Construction Guidelines" aimed at curbing repeated construction and market segmentation [1][2] Group 2: Supply-Side Opportunities - The report highlights potential supply-side transformation opportunities in sectors with significant homogeneous competition, such as refining, olefins, and certain pesticide varieties facing potential overcapacity [2] - The expected exit of inefficient production capacity due to state-owned enterprise capacity control and project approval restrictions may lead to an improvement in the supply-demand structure and a recovery in industry profitability [2] Group 3: Macro and Chemical Product Prices - As of July 2025, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity [3] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported a decrease of 5.6% from the beginning of the year, with 48 out of 279 petrochemical products experiencing price increases year-on-year [3] Group 4: Oil Prices - International crude oil prices showed an upward trend in July, with Brent crude rising from $67.11 to $73.24 per barrel, and WTI from $65.45 to $70.00 per barrel [4] - The report anticipates that Brent crude prices will stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel, while WTI will range from $60 to $65 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ policies [4] Group 5: Future Outlook for Chemical Products - The report recommends investment in chemical products with improving supply-demand dynamics and scarce resource attributes, focusing on electronic resins, phosphate fertilizers, pesticides, and refining [5][6] - The electronic resin sector is expected to grow significantly due to increasing demand for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates used in AI servers, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The phosphate fertilizer market is anticipated to see price increases due to overseas agricultural recovery and supply disruptions, while the pesticide sector is expected to rebound as demand rises and capital expenditure declines [6]

光大证券指出，地方国资委负责人研讨班强调加强国有资产重组整合，推动国有资本优化配置，形 成新的国有资本布局结构，建议关注央国企资产整合投资机会。在经历了2021、2023年的资本开支高峰 后，2024年化工央国企的资本开支放缓，全年实现资本开支2485亿元，与2019年2420亿元的规模接近， 表明石化化工上市央国企资本开支强度有望得到控制，资本开支周期反转有望来临。2024年以来，中央 针对"反内卷"频繁发声，工信部新一期《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案》有望出台，政策目标为调整行 业结构、推动供给侧优化和淘汰落后产能，炼油、PTA/PX、化肥、颜料染料、有机硅/工业硅、纯碱、 氯碱/PVC等子行业的供给侧改革有望深化，相关央国企有望受益。石化化工央国企近年来加大研发投 入，研发费用率持续提升，2019-2024年，央企的研发费用率从0.55%增长至0.77%，地方国企从1.44% 增长至2.49%，重视新质生产力的发展，大力攻关"卡脖子"技术，支撑和引领炼化新材料产业转型升 级。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从市场中选取涉及石油、天然气的 勘探、开采、炼制及销售等业务 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a multi-dimensional approach to address "involution" in the chemical industry, focusing on supply, demand, and government collaboration [1][3][25] - Recent policies from various government bodies aim to regulate costs, manage carbon emissions, and eliminate outdated production methods to combat "involution" [2][43] - The report identifies high concentration and deep losses in specific sub-industries as key areas for intervention, suggesting that these sectors may be more amenable to achieving "anti-involution" goals [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Addressing "Involution" in Competition - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released guidelines to address the causes of "involution" and proposed measures for local governments and enterprises [1][12] - The report highlights the importance of establishing product standards and improving the efficiency of accounts receivable collection to mitigate "involution" [26][32] Section 2: Recent Policy Developments - Recent updates to the Price Law and other regulations aim to strengthen cost supervision and adjust pricing mechanisms to combat "involution" [2][39] - The NDRC has introduced a new framework for energy efficiency reviews and carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects, targeting high-energy-consuming projects [43][46] Section 3: Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Chemical Sub-Industries - The report analyzes 127 chemical sub-industries based on capacity, concentration, and profitability, identifying those with high loss levels and concentration as potential targets for "anti-involution" measures [4][11] - Specific industries such as soda ash, polyurethane, and organic silicon are highlighted as areas of interest due to their alignment with the identified criteria [4][29] Section 4: Recommendations for Industry Improvement - The report suggests enhancing industry self-regulation, increasing innovation, and establishing standards to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities [36][34] - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach between industry policies and competition policies to ensure sustainable development [24][38]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing new productive forces and restructuring state-owned enterprises to optimize capital allocation and improve competitiveness in the petrochemical industry [2][4][6]. Group 1: R&D and New Productive Forces - Central state-owned enterprises in the petrochemical sector have increased R&D investments, with R&D expense ratios rising from 0.55% in 2019 to 0.77% in 2024, while local state-owned enterprises' R&D expense ratios increased from 1.44% to 2.49% during the same period [3]. - China National Petroleum Corporation has established new material research institutes to tackle key technologies and support the transformation of the refining and chemical materials industry, achieving significant R&D results in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - After peaks in capital expenditure in 2021 and 2023, capital expenditure for petrochemical central state-owned enterprises is expected to slow down in 2024, projected at 248.5 billion yuan, which is close to the 242 billion yuan in 2019, indicating a potential reversal in the capital expenditure cycle [4]. - The central government has been vocal about "anti-involution," and a new industrial growth plan from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is anticipated to adjust industry structure and promote supply-side reforms [4]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reforms and Industry Benefits - Supply-side reforms are expected to deepen in sub-industries such as refining, PTA/PX, fertilizers, pigments and dyes, organic silicon/industrial silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC, benefiting relevant central state-owned enterprises [5]. Group 4: Asset Restructuring Opportunities - The recent seminar emphasized the need for asset restructuring and optimization of state-owned capital allocation, focusing on critical industries and strategic emerging sectors, which could enhance the core competitiveness of state-owned enterprises [6].