当好"稳定器" 做好"压舱石"—— 近日，工业和信息化部等六部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》(下称《工作 方案》)。《工作方案》对今明两年石化化工行业稳增长目标、任务和保障措施提出了明确要求。这是 贯彻落实党的二十大、二十届三中全会精神，以及中央经济工作会议部署的具体实践，为石化化工行业 稳定运行和转型发展提供了重要指导。 坚持稳中求进，助力行业发挥"压舱石"作用 2025年是"十四五"规划收官、"十五五"规划启动之年。当前，国际形势复杂多变，风险矛盾不断积聚， 国内经济增长承压，转型升级迫在眉睫。中央经济工作会议强调，要坚持"稳中求进、以进促稳"，大力 提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求；以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，建设现代化产业体 系；扩大高水平对外开放，稳外贸、稳外资；协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长，加紧经济社会发展全面绿色 转型。 作为国民经济基础性、支柱型产业，石化化工行业经济总量大、产业关联度高，对产业链安全稳定和经 济平稳运行有重要保障作用。近年来，石化化工行业大力推进传统产业绿色转型和高端产业创新发展， 保证了营业收入和产品产量的稳定增长。但是受市场竞争激 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The petrochemical and chemical industry aims for an average annual increase of over 5% in added - value from 2025 - 2026, focusing on high - end, green, and intelligent transformation. Policy support in finance, elements, etc., is provided to promote quality and quantity growth [1]. - Brent crude oil has been rising since September 2025 but is down 7.5% year - on - year, which is negative for L. In August, domestic PE production increased for two consecutive months to 2.827 million tons, up 16.4% year - on - year, negatively affecting the L - PP spread [2]. - The US manufacturing PMI in August 2025 rose to 48.7 points, rising for three consecutive months, which is positive for L in the single - side trading [4]. - In September 2025, the petrochemical industry promoted quality improvement during the "Quality Month". Enterprises strengthened full - process quality control through digital and intelligent means [4]. - The downstream demand is in the peak season with a slight increase in downstream operation rates. However, the 01 contracts of both L and PP have new production capacity release expectations. Near - term cost - side oil price increases lead to short - term price fluctuations, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **September 30, 2025**: The L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. LLDPE prices in North China were 7100 - 7170 yuan/ton, 7160 - 7370 yuan/ton in East China, and 7230 - 7600 yuan/ton in South China. The PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. PP prices in North China were 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton in East China, and 6700 - 6830 yuan/ton in South China [1]. - **September 29, 2025**: The L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. LLDPE prices in North China were 7120 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7180 - 7370 yuan/ton in East China, and 7230 - 7600 yuan/ton in South China. The PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. PP prices in North China were 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton in East China, and 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton in South China [4]. - **September 19, 2025**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices in North China were 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton with some drops; in East China, they were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton with partial price changes; in South China, they were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton with a slight decline. In the PP spot market, prices in North China were 6670 - 6780 yuan/ton with a decline; in East China, they were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton with a decline; in South China, they were 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton with no change [6]. Important Information - **September 30, 2025**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in added - value, promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation, and providing policy support [1]. - **September 29, 2025**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petrochemical industry promoted quality improvement. Enterprises such as CNOOC, China National Chemical Engineering, and PetroChina strengthened full - process quality control [4]. - **September 19, 2025**: On the previous day, the PE maintenance ratio was 16.9%, up 3.2 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 19.3%, up 1.5 percentage points [6]. Logical Analysis - Brent crude oil rising since September 2025 but being down 7.5% year - on - year is negative for L. The increase in domestic PE production in August is negative for the L - PP spread [2]. - As of the previous week, there were no new registered L and PP futures warehouse receipts. The number of L futures registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12,700 lots, and the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 745 lots, with an inventory accumulation of 3.5% to 14,100 tons. The rise in the US manufacturing PMI in August is positive for L in single - side trading [4]. - The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the 01 contracts of L and PP have new production capacity release expectations. The near - term increase in oil prices leads to short - term price fluctuations, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. Trading Strategies - **September 30, 2025**: Due to the approaching holiday and no night trading, control the open inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and focus on the pressure at Monday's high. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [2]. - **September 29, 2025**: Try to go long in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low; try to go long in the PP main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [5]. - **September 19, 2025**: Due to the near - term increase in oil prices, plastic and PP prices fluctuate in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7].

其中提出，增强高端化供给，支持电子化学品、高端聚烯烃等领域的关键产品攻关，推动涂料等具有比 较优势的大宗产品提质升级；促进供需提质，围绕新能源、低空经济、人形机器人等新兴产业，积极拓 展新能源电池材料、碳纤维及其复合材料、特种工程塑料等应用。 值得注意的是，方案提出打造优质化工园区和产业集群，组织开展化工园区竞争力、智慧化水平分级评 价，引导化工园区对标改造、提级进步，推动化工园区聚焦主导产业强链补链延链，培育一批先进制造 业集群、中小企业特色产业集群及龙头企业。 据了解，下一步，工业和信息化部将会同相关部门强化政策宣贯解读，组织有关地区和企业抓好落实， 促进行业平稳运行，加快推进结构优化升级。 新华社北京9月26日电（记者王悦阳）记者26日从工业和信息化部获悉，工业和信息化部、生态环境 部、应急管理部等七部门联合印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》提出，2025年至 2026年，石化化工行业增加值年均增长5%以上。 方案还提出了一系列2025年至2026年石化化工行业稳增长主要目标：经济效益企稳回升，产业科技创新 能力显著增强，精细化延伸、数字赋能和本质安全水平持续提高，减污降碳协同增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, aimed at promoting stable operation and structural optimization of the petrochemical industry in China [2][11]. Summary by Sections Overall Requirements - The plan emphasizes the importance of the petrochemical industry as a foundational and pillar industry for the national economy, highlighting the need for quality and efficiency improvements amid increasing competition and external uncertainties [11][12]. Main Goals - The plan sets a target for the petrochemical industry to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic benefits and enhancing technological innovation capabilities [13]. Key Measures 1. **Strengthening Technological Innovation**: The plan encourages the integration of technological innovation with industry development, focusing on high-end supply and supporting key product breakthroughs in sectors like electronics and new energy [14]. 2. **Ensuring Fertilizer Production**: It aims to optimize the management of key fertilizer production enterprises and ensure stable raw material supply through long-term agreements [6][15]. 3. **Digital and Green Transformation**: The plan promotes the digitalization and greening of the petrochemical industry, including the development of high-quality data sets and intelligent equipment adaptation [17][18]. 4. **Market Demand Expansion**: It encourages the establishment of stable cooperation between petrochemical product manufacturers and downstream users, while also exploring new applications in emerging industries [19]. 5. **International Cooperation**: The plan emphasizes the need for international collaboration to navigate trade challenges and expand export channels for petrochemical products [21]. Support Measures - The plan outlines the need for enhanced organizational support, policy backing, and monitoring to ensure the effective implementation of the stabilization and growth strategies for the petrochemical industry [22][23][24].

其中提出，加强重大石化、现代煤化工项目规划布局引导，严控新增炼油产能，合理确定乙烯、对二甲 苯新增产能规模和投放节奏，防范煤制甲醇行业产能过剩风险。石化领域严格执行新建炼油项目产能减 量置换要求，重点支持石化老旧装置改造、新技术产业化示范以及现有炼化企业"减油增化"项目；现代 煤化工领域重点依托煤水资源相对丰富、环境容量较好地区，适度布局煤制油气、煤制化学品项目，开 展煤化工与新能源耦合、先进材料、技术装备、工业操作系统等产业化应用示范，以及二氧化碳捕集、 利用及封存工程示范。加快天然气提氦、海水提钾等项目实施。 (本文来自第一财经) 工信部等七部门近日联合印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》。 ...

人民财讯9月26日电，工业和信息化部等7部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》， 主要目标是，2025—2026年，石化化工行业增加值年均增长5%以上，经济效益企稳回升，产业科技创 新能力显著增强，精细化延伸、数字赋能和本质安全水平持续提高，减污降碳协同增效明显，化工园区 由规范建设向高质量发展迈进。 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 1,409.05 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.48 billion yuan, down 39.83% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 673.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.31%, with a net profit of 8.22 billion yuan, down 52.73% year-on-year [1] - The company's oil and gas equivalent production increased to 131.84 million barrels in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7% [1] Group 2 - The average selling price of crude oil for the company in H1 2025 was 3,415 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year due to falling oil prices [1] - The exploration and production segment's EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) was 11.89 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down 25.9% year-on-year and 12.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's refining segment processed 57.84 million tons of crude oil in Q2 2025, a decrease of 8.8% year-on-year, leading to a significant drop in profits [2] Group 3 - The refining segment's EBIT was 0.89 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a decline of 62.89% quarter-on-quarter due to lower product prices and reduced inventory profits [2] - The chemical segment reported an EBIT loss of 2.77 billion yuan in Q2 2025, an increase in losses of 2.24 billion yuan year-on-year and 1.45 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to introduce a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry, which may benefit the company by eliminating outdated production capacity [2] Group 4 - The company adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 45.97 billion yuan, 50.22 billion yuan, and 53.26 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.35X, 14.05X, and 13.25X [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected net profit of 459.65 billion, 502.19 billion, and 532.60 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 15.35X, 14.05X, and 13.25X respectively [4][12]. Core Views - The company has shown significant results in increasing reserves and production, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in oil and gas equivalent production, reaching 131.84 million barrels in Q2 2025 [2]. - The exploration and development segment's profit before tax decreased by 25.9% year-on-year due to external factors such as US tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, alongside a notable drop in Brent oil prices [2]. - The refining segment faced challenges with a decrease in crude processing volume by 8.8% year-on-year, leading to a significant drop in profits [3]. - The chemical sector remains under pressure, with losses reported in the chemical segment due to low industry sentiment and declining margins on key products [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from upcoming policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the petrochemical industry and eliminating outdated production capacity [4]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 2,870.62 billion, a decrease of 6.63% from the previous year, and a net profit of 45.97 billion, down 8.64% [5]. - The average selling price of crude oil for the first half of 2025 was 3,415 RMB per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [2]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 705.65 billion RMB, with a closing price of 5.82 RMB as of August 26, 2025 [6].