Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience and positive development of China's industrial economy in the first three quarters of 2025, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policies to support growth and innovation [1][2][4]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the industrial added value grew by 6.2%, surpassing the growth rates of 2023 and 2024 by 1.6 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [2]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw added value growth of 9.7% and 9.6%, respectively, exceeding the overall industrial growth by 3.5 and 3.4 percentage points [2]. - The service sector also experienced rapid growth, with a 5.4% increase in added value, 0.4 percentage points higher than in 2024 [2]. - Notably, the information transmission, software, and IT services sector achieved an impressive growth rate of 11.2% [2]. R&D and Innovation - China's R&D investment intensity rose from 1.91% in 2012 to 2.68% in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [3]. - The proportion of basic research funding within total R&D expenditures increased from below 5% (2012-2014) to 6.91% in 2024, highlighting a focus on foundational research [3]. - China's global innovation index ranking improved from 34th in 2012 to 11th in 2024, marking a significant advancement in overall innovation capabilities [3]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests enhancing the proportion of basic R&D investment and improving the coordination of stability, structural, and growth policies to address potential impacts on employment and economic structure [3]. - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive macroeconomic policy package in the fourth quarter, focusing on optimizing investment, industrial, and income distribution structures to balance supply and demand [4].

Economic Growth - The cumulative growth rate for the first three quarters is 5.2%, establishing a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of 5%[3] - The minimum GDP growth requirement for the fourth quarter is set at 4.6% to meet the annual goal[3] Policy Measures - Continuous and stable policies will be maintained, with potential for monetary policy adjustments such as interest rate cuts if pressures increase[3] - Fiscal policy may involve increasing the scale of policy financial tools and utilizing government bond balances to support growth[3] GDP Performance - In Q3, GDP at constant prices grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2%, while nominal GDP growth was 3.7%, also lower than the previous 3.9%[5] - Q3 fixed asset investment (FAI) saw a significant decline of 6.6%, while retail sales growth dropped to 3.4%[5] Economic Disparities - The gap between constant price GDP growth and nominal GDP growth indicates a disparity in economic performance, with nominal GDP growth at its lowest for 2023[8] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for ten consecutive quarters, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the economy[8] Sectoral Insights - Industrial value added increased by 5.8% year-on-year in Q3, with high-tech manufacturing growing by approximately 9.6%[12] - Service sector value added rose by 5.4%, with information technology services leading at 11.2% growth[12] Investment Dynamics - Despite a decline in fixed asset investment, capital formation contributed positively to GDP growth, adding 0.9 percentage points[19] - The performance of intangible asset investments, particularly in software, has been relatively strong, benefiting from advancements in artificial intelligence[19] Future Outlook - Economic growth may slow in Q4 due to high base effects, particularly in consumer goods, with automotive retail showing negative growth[21] - Policy efforts will focus on boosting service consumption and fixed asset investment, with an estimated 2.2 percentage point support from new fiscal measures[21] Risk Factors - Risks include US-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments, which may impact exports and corporate profits[4] - Ongoing geopolitical changes and international market fluctuations could affect commodity prices and related industries[4]

Core Viewpoint - The national economy of China has shown overall stability in the first three quarters, with a solid advancement in high-quality development under the strong leadership of the central government [1] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The primary industry added value was 580.61 billion yuan, growing by 3.8%, contributing 4.7% to economic growth [2] - The secondary industry added value was 3,640.20 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.9%, contributing 34.6% to economic growth [2] - The tertiary industry added value was 5,929.55 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, contributing 60.7% to economic growth [2] - In the third quarter, GDP was 354.50 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [3] Production and Supply - All sectors showed stable growth, with agriculture increasing by 4.0%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to economic growth [3] - Industrial production grew by 6.1%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to economic growth [3] - The service sector showed steady improvement, with significant contributions from information transmission, software, and IT services, which grew by 11.2% [3] Domestic Demand and Trade - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, adding 2.8 percentage points to GDP [4] - Capital formation contributed 17.5% to economic growth, adding 0.9 percentage points to GDP [5] - Net exports contributed 29.0% to economic growth, adding 1.5 percentage points to GDP [5] Market Dynamics and New Growth Drivers - The digital economy has shown significant support, with revenue from the information transmission, software, and IT services sector growing by 12.1% from January to August [6] - The manufacturing sector is undergoing rapid transformation, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively [6] - Investment in high-tech services grew by 6.1%, surpassing the overall fixed asset investment growth rate [6]

Group 1 - The service industry has shown significant growth, contributing 60.7% to the national economic growth, with a value added of 592,955 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [2] - The proportion of service industry value added in GDP reached 58.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The modern service industry is thriving, with information transmission, software, and IT services growing by 11.2%, and leasing and business services increasing by 9.2% year-on-year [3] Group 2 - The new momentum in the service industry is evident, with strategic emerging service industries and high-tech service industries seeing revenue growth of 10.6% and 9.4% respectively from January to August [3] - Digital technology application industries have also experienced a revenue increase of 11.7% during the same period [3] - Service consumption has improved, with service retail sales growing by 5.2%, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.6 percentage points [3] Group 3 - The service industry maintains an expansionary trend, with a business activity index of 50.1% in September, indicating growth [4] - Certain sectors, such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services, have business activity indices above 60.0%, reflecting robust growth [4] - The business activity expectation index for the service industry stands at 56.3%, indicating stable and optimistic expectations for industry development [4]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a stable economic performance [1] - The industrial production saw a significant increase, with the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises rising by 6.2% year-on-year [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Urban and rural markets expanded, with urban retail sales growing by 4.4% and rural retail sales by 4.6%, the latter outpacing urban growth by 0.2 percentage points [2] - Online retail sales increased by 9.8% year-on-year, reflecting a positive trend in e-commerce [2] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year, contributing to the overall economic stability [1] Service Sector Performance - The service sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, contributing 60.7% to the national economic growth [3] - Modern service industries, such as information transmission and software services, saw substantial growth, with increases of 11.2% and 9.2% respectively [3] Consumption Upgrades - Service retail sales grew by 5.2% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a shift towards higher quality service consumption [3] - The integration of services, such as "service+" models, is driving growth in various sectors including dining, accommodation, and travel [4]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, with industrial production increasing by 6.2% [1][3] - Manufacturing investment saw a rapid growth of 4.0% year-on-year [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4] - Urban and rural markets are expanding, with urban retail sales growing by 4.4% and rural retail sales by 4.6%, the latter outpacing urban growth by 0.2 percentage points [4] Income and Consumption - Rural residents' per capita disposable income increased by 6%, surpassing urban growth of 1.5% and the national average [7] - Online retail sales grew by 9.8% year-on-year, with green consumption and high-efficiency appliances also seeing significant growth [7] Service Sector - The service sector achieved a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, contributing 60.7% to the national economic growth [10] - Key areas such as information transmission, software, and IT services saw increases of 11.2% and 9.2% respectively [10] Innovation and New Consumption Models - The integration of "AI + consumption" is accelerating, with new technologies enhancing consumer experiences and meeting demands for quality and diversity [9][13] - The "service +" model is expanding, linking various service sectors like dining, accommodation, and travel, driving service consumption growth [16]

Core Points - The preliminary GDP results for the third quarter of 2025 indicate a GDP of 354,500 billion with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% and a growth of 5.2% for the first three quarters [8][5][4] - The primary industry grew by 4.0%, the secondary industry by 4.2%, and the tertiary industry by 5.4% in the third quarter [8][5] - The manufacturing sector showed a robust growth of 6.3%, while the construction industry faced a decline of 2.3% [8][5] GDP Growth Rates - Year-on-year growth rates for GDP from 2020 to 2025 show fluctuations, with 2025 projected to have a growth of 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3 [5][4] - The quarterly growth rates indicate a consistent recovery post-pandemic, with 2023 showing a growth of 4.7% in Q1 and 6.5% in Q2 [5][4] Industry Performance - The agricultural sector (including forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery) reported a growth of 4.1% in Q3 2025 [8] - The industrial sector, particularly manufacturing, continues to be a strong contributor to GDP, with a growth rate of 6.3% [8] - The financial sector also showed positive growth at 5.2%, while the real estate sector faced challenges with a slight decline of 0.2% [8] Data Sources and Methodology - The GDP data is calculated using the production method, which reflects the value added by various industries [12][11] - The classification of industries follows the national standards set by the National Bureau of Statistics, ensuring consistency in reporting [22][23] - The GDP figures are subject to revisions as more comprehensive data becomes available, ensuring accuracy in reflecting economic conditions [33][34]

Economic Overview - The national economy is operating smoothly with high-quality development being steadily advanced under the strong leadership of the central government [1] - In the first three quarters, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year [2] - The GDP for the third quarter was 3,545 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [3] Production and Supply - All sectors showed stable growth, with agriculture, industry, and services contributing positively to economic growth [4] - Agricultural production increased by 4.0%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to economic growth [4] - Industrial production grew by 6.1%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to economic growth [4] - The service sector's value added increased by 5.4%, contributing 3.1 percentage points to GDP growth [23] Domestic Demand and Trade - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, adding 2.8 percentage points to GDP [5] - Capital formation contributed 17.5% to economic growth, adding 0.9 percentage points to GDP [6] - Net exports contributed 29.0% to economic growth, adding 1.5 percentage points to GDP [6] Market Dynamics and New Growth Drivers - The digital economy showed significant support, with revenue from information transmission and software services growing by 12.1% [7] - The manufacturing sector is undergoing transformation, with high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.6% [7] - Investment in high-tech services grew by 6.1%, indicating a shift towards new growth drivers [30] Agricultural Sector - The agricultural economy is showing a stable and positive trend, with autumn grain production expected to be stable [8] - Livestock production is also stable, with pork production increasing by 3.0% [10] Industrial Development - Industrial production increased by 6.2% in the first three quarters, with 37 out of 41 major industrial sectors showing growth [14] - The export value of industrial products grew by 3.3%, indicating resilience in the industrial sector [14] Energy Sector - Energy production is steadily increasing, with coal production at 3.57 billion tons, up 2.0% year-on-year [18] - The share of non-fossil energy consumption is steadily rising, with a 1.7 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [21] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's value added reached 592,955 million yuan, growing by 5.4% [23] - The modern service industry is thriving, with significant growth in information technology and business services [24] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 371,535 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year, primarily due to real estate investment [26] - Industrial investment grew by 6.4%, contributing positively to overall investment growth [27] Consumer Market Expansion - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year [33] - Online retail sales increased by 9.8%, indicating a shift towards digital consumption [36] Employment Stability - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, with major cities showing slightly lower rates [38] - Employment in key sectors such as transportation and hospitality has increased, reflecting a stable job market [39] Resident Income and Consumption - Per capita disposable income reached 32,509 yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year [41] - Per capita consumption expenditure was 21,575 yuan, with significant growth in categories like household goods and services [43]

Economic Overview - The preliminary data for the first three quarters indicates that the GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices, showcasing a stable and progressive economic operation with positive outcomes in high-quality development [1] Agriculture Sector - The agricultural production situation is favorable, with the value added in agriculture (planting) increasing by 3.6% year-on-year. The summer grain and early rice output increased by 190,000 tons compared to the previous year, and the overall autumn grain production remains stable, indicating a potential for another bumper harvest for the year [1] Industrial Sector - The industrial production has shown rapid growth, with the value added of large-scale industrial enterprises increasing by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Specifically, the value added in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively [1] Service Sector - The service industry has experienced steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in value added. Notably, the information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw an increase of 11.2%, while leasing and business services, as well as transportation, warehousing, and postal services, grew by 9.2% and 5.8% respectively [1] Consumer Spending and Investment - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,658.77 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.5%. Additionally, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0% year-on-year [1] Income Growth - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 32,509 yuan, reflecting a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.1%, and a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors [2]

Economic Overview - The preliminary data for the first three quarters indicates that the GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices, demonstrating a stable and progressive economic operation with positive outcomes in high-quality development [1] Agriculture Sector - The agricultural production situation is favorable, with the value added in agriculture (planting) increasing by 3.6% year-on-year. The summer grain and early rice production increased by 190,000 tons compared to the previous year, and the overall autumn grain production remains stable, suggesting a potential for another bumper harvest for the year [1] Industrial Sector - The industrial production has shown rapid growth, with the value added of large-scale industrial enterprises increasing by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Specifically, the value added in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively [1] Service Sector - The service industry has experienced steady growth, with the value added increasing by 5.4% year-on-year. Notably, the information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw an increase of 11.2%, while leasing and business services, as well as transportation, warehousing, and postal services, grew by 9.2% and 5.8% respectively [1] Consumer Spending and Investment - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,658.77 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.5%. Additionally, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0% year-on-year [1] Income Growth - The per capita disposable income of residents reached 32,509 yuan, reflecting a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.1%, and a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors [2]