Market Movements - US stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.71%, S&P 500 futures down 0.64%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.87% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up 0.33%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.03%, France's CAC40 down 0.23%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.05% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is down 0.61% at $58.58 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 0.81% at $62.83 per barrel [3][4] Earnings Season and Economic Data - The new earnings season for US stocks is set to begin, with major firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan expected to report strong growth and optimistic outlooks [5] - Key economic data, including the US CPI and PPI, will be released this week, influencing traders' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Earnings Forecasts - HSBC and Citigroup predict that the S&P 500's Q4 earnings will exceed expectations, with a slight increase in profit margins anticipated [6] - Citigroup forecasts that the S&P 500's earnings per share will reach $275 for the year, with a projected $320 for 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the tech sector [6] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation, which raises concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [7] - Goldman Sachs projects a 2.8% growth rate for the US economy in 2026, with expectations of two 25 basis point rate cuts in June and September [8] Individual Company News - Tempus AI reports a significant revenue increase of 83% for 2025, leading to a pre-market stock price surge of over 10% [11] - TSMC anticipates a 27% increase in Q4 net profit, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure [11] - Walmart and Google are collaborating to launch AI shopping, enhancing the consumer experience through Google's AI assistant [12] - Meta has shut down 550,000 accounts of users under 16 in compliance with Australian regulations, despite opposing the ban [13]

中芯国际创始人张汝京曾说，他在自己离开台积电时，台积电董事长告诉他，你敢去大陆，那在台积电 的这么多股票就不能拿了！ 2025 年，满头华发的张汝京现身讲台，面对台下朝气蓬勃的年轻面庞，他身形瘦削却身姿挺拔，尽显 风骨。 外界给这位半导体老兵算过一笔账，怎么算，他这辈子都是在做"亏本买卖"。可在他自己心里的那个账 本上，算盘珠子拨弄的逻辑，却与世俗的精明截然不同。 这第一笔"大额亏损"，记在世纪之交。 那时候，他在德州仪器风头无两，在台积电也是身居要位。动了北上创业的念头后，老东家给他出了一 道残酷的选择题：要去大陆可以，但属于你的天价股票和期权，必须全部清零。 在当时，那是一笔换算下来几辈子都花不完的巨款。 换做常人，大概率要犹豫，甚至退缩。但张汝京几乎没有停顿，大手一挥就划掉了这笔泼天富贵，哪怕 那是他半辈子的积蓄。 对他来说，父亲张锡纶弥留之际那句 "何时回祖国建厂" 的期盼，以及母亲想在故土安度晚年的心愿， 远比任何金钱财富都更有分量。 既然放弃了荣华富贵，前方等待他的本该是鲜花掌声吧？并没有。 他在上海浦东落地时，迎接他的是一片还要跟蚊虫作战的荒滩，以及一道名为《瓦森纳协定》的严密铁 幕。 手里攥着 ...

Macro Economic Group - In December, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 0.7% in November. Core CPI also remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year [5] - December's PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 2% [6] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% [7][8] Industry Comprehensive Group - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$335 billion in December 2025, a 2.5% decrease from November but a 20.4% increase year-on-year. The fourth quarter revenue reached NT$1.05 trillion, approximately US$33.1 billion, exceeding market expectations [10] - The competition for satellite orbital resources between China and the U.S. has officially begun, with significant implications for satellite manufacturing and commercial rocket industries [11] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Starting April 1, 2026, China will cancel the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products and reduce the rebate for battery products from 9% to 6%. This is expected to stabilize export prices and enhance product structure upgrades in the battery industry [13] - In December, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.337 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with a penetration rate of 59.1% in the domestic market [14] Consumer Group - Mao Geping has launched new products and formed a strategic partnership with LVMH's investment firm, aiming to enhance its global presence in the beauty market. This collaboration focuses on expanding high-end retail channels and establishing a beauty investment fund [16] - The CES 2026 highlighted the importance of LiDAR technology, which is expected to drive the growth of smart lawn mowers and other intelligent devices, with the global market projected to reach US$4 billion by 2028 [17]

从基本面看，国内电解铝产能触顶、后续供应增加有限；海外部分电解铝炼厂因电力问题减停产，且新 增产能落地不及预期，整体供应难有明显增长。需求端，淡季下游需求整体疲软，市场"恐高"情绪蔓 延，现货交投谨慎。不过，环保限产解除后，下游铝加工企业开工率有所回升。尽管传统地产行业持续 低迷，但新能源领域需求爆发，特别是人工智能、算力基础、人形机器人及低空经济的快速发展，为铝 需求带来广阔预期。此外，铜价不断创出新高，催生"铝代铜"兴起，铝需求预期强劲。然而，上期所库 存数据显示，1月9日当周铝锭社会库存继续累积，环比增加10.8%至14.38万吨，反映出当前现货交易低 迷的现实。 综合来看，短期内铝价处于高位，且季节性淡季持续抑制终端需求，后续库存可能继续累积。但盘面上 多头情绪高涨，沪铝有阶段性反弹预期，整体呈震荡上扬态势，今现铝价格或大幅上涨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月9日伦铝最新库存量报497825公吨，较上个交易日减少1925吨，跌幅 0.39%。 长江铝业网讯：1月9日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报24030元/吨，涨30元；广东现货A00铝锭价报 24100元/吨，涨70元。 宏观层面，周五美国劳工部 ...

股指期货周报：春季行情确立 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 一周要闻 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国常会：部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。 人民日报钟才平：统筹促消费和扩投资，建设强大国内市场。 财政部、税务总局发布公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年4月1日起至2026 年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退 税。 2025年12月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，扣除 食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间。 2025年12月，美国非农就业人数喜忧参半，增加5万人，预期7万人；失业率降至4.4%。数据公布后，美 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market has seen a significant increase at the beginning of the year, with the Wind All A index rising by 5.11% and an average daily trading volume of 2.85 trillion yuan, a notable increase compared to December [3][15] - The CSI 1000 index increased by 7.03%, the CSI 500 by 7.92%, the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 by 2.79%, and the Shanghai 50 by 3.4% [3][15] - The financing balance increased by 79 billion yuan weekly, indicating a strong market sentiment [3][15] Group 2: Technology Sector Influence - The rapid growth in the AI upstream hardware manufacturing sector has been a core driver of the current bull market since August 2025 [3][15] - A strong correlation has been observed between A-share technology themes and their U.S. counterparts, with the PEG indicators of major AI themes in A-shares aligning closely with similar U.S. companies [3][15] Group 3: Global Economic Factors - The upcoming CES (Consumer Electronics Show) is expected to highlight numerous tech companies, with Nvidia set to release a new generation of chips that could significantly enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4][16] - The geopolitical tensions have led to increased interest in rare metals, which are crucial for high-tech manufacturing and military industries, resulting in short-term price surges [4][16] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is experiencing a weak fluctuation due to improved PMI data and expectations for real estate policies, with a shift towards a stronger stock market and weaker bond market [5][17] - As of January 9, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.44%, 1.66%, 1.88%, and 2.30% respectively, reflecting changes from December 31 [5][17][18] Group 5: Inflation Trends - China's December CPI rose to 0.8%, the highest since March 2023, driven primarily by increased food prices, which rose by 1.1% [8][21] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [8][21] Group 6: Precious Metals Market - London spot gold saw a weekly increase of 4.07% to $4509.015 per ounce, while silver, platinum, and palladium also experienced significant gains [11][25] - The geopolitical situation has kept the demand for gold high, with market participants remaining cautious about potential conflicts [11][27]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on January 12, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.55% to 26,376.84 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.88% to 5,737.43 points, the National Enterprises Index up by 0.75% to 9,116.01 points, and the Red Chip Index gaining 0.68% to 4,129.13 points [1] Company News - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) reported a December smartphone lens shipment of 95.592 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. The automotive lens shipment was 7.477 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. Smartphone camera module shipments were 37.744 million units, down 29.3% year-on-year, primarily due to customer inventory control and holiday factors [2] - Orient Overseas International (00316.HK) reported a 17.2% year-on-year decrease in fourth-quarter shipping revenue to USD 2.081 billion. Total cargo volume increased by 0.8%, and capacity rose by 4.5%. The overall load factor decreased by 3.1% compared to the same period in 2024, with average revenue per standard container down 17.8% year-on-year [2] - China Jinmao (00817.HK) achieved a cumulative contracted sales amount of RMB 113.5 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.52% [3] - R&F Properties (02777.HK) reported total sales revenue of approximately RMB 14.21 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.54% [4] - Zhongliang Holdings (02772.HK) reported a cumulative contracted sales amount of approximately RMB 12.07 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 32.68% [5] - Greenland Hong Kong (00337.HK) reported contracted sales of approximately RMB 7.214 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.66% [6] - Longyuan Power (00916.HK) completed a cumulative power generation of 76.4694 million MWh for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.22% [7] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419.HK) reported sales of 1.1097 million pigs in December, generating revenue of RMB 1.664 billion [8] - COFCO Joycome (01610.HK) reported a December pig output of 567,000 heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.43% [9] - Hengding Industrial (01393.HK) reported a coal production of 5.415 million tons for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31% [10] Industry Insights - Dongwu Securities suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a period of oscillation and upward movement, emphasizing the importance of dividends as a base and the potential for technology growth in the first half of the year [15] - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the strong performance of copper and aluminum in the recent market, indicating that copper prices are expected to continue rising, with a target of USD 13,000 not being the peak for this cycle [15] - Zhongtai Securities notes that China's rare earths have become a crucial strategic component in the global high-tech industry chain amid increasing Sino-US tech competition, recommending focus on resource companies with high concentration and barriers [16]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by key players in the AI computing industry such as Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indices reached new all-time closing highs, with the Dow gaining over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by less than 2% [1] Economic Data and Expectations - The upcoming week is termed a "super heavy week," with the U.S. government set to release crucial economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][3] - Analysts expect a significant rebound in core CPI, with predictions ranging from 0.36% to 0.38% for December, compared to an average of 0.08% in October and November [8] - Retail sales data, referred to as "terrifying data," is anticipated to show a rebound of 0.7% in November, driven by strong online sales during shopping events [9] Labor Market Insights - The December non-farm payroll report indicated a slowdown in job growth, with only 584,000 jobs added in 2025, the lowest since 2003, excluding recession years [5][6] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, suggesting a "low hiring, low firing" scenario rather than a recessionary decline [6][7] Corporate Earnings Season - The earnings season for major U.S. banks is set to commence, with JPMorgan Chase and BNY Mellon reporting on Tuesday, followed by other financial giants [4][10] - Analysts expect strong performance from these banks, with a consensus that the S&P 500 index will continue its bullish trajectory into 2026, potentially reaching 8,000 points [3][10] TSMC's Performance - TSMC's earnings report is highly anticipated, as it serves as a bellwether for the AI chip supply chain, with expectations for strong demand from major clients like Nvidia [4][12] - TSMC reported a December revenue of approximately NT$335 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a total revenue of NT$3.81 trillion for the year, reflecting a 31.6% growth [12][14] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the U.S. economy's "soft landing" narrative, with expectations for continued growth in 2026, supported by favorable fiscal policies and easing inflationary pressures [7][11] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in net interest income (NII) and strong performance in investment banking and wealth management [11]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced volatility, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.41% or 106 points, ending at 26,231 points, and total trading volume reaching approximately 1.36 trillion HKD [1][5] Sector and Stock Movements - The technology sector saw most stocks decline, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping 0.86% to 5,687.14 points. Notable declines included Tencent down 1.93% to 611.0 HKD, Alibaba down 1.68% to 146.50 HKD, and Meituan down 5.83% to 98.50 HKD. However, Bilibili rose 11.87% to 223.40 HKD, and Trip.com increased by 2.32% to 596.50 HKD [3][4] - Gold prices surpassed 4,500 USD/ounce, attracting interest as a safe-haven asset, which positively impacted gold stocks such as Zijin Mining up 3.57% and Shandong Gold up 11.27% [3][4] Innovation and IPO Market - Reports indicate that China will enhance support for innovative drugs, leading to a rise in the biotech sector. Notable stock increases included Rongchang Biopharma up 28.51% and Jinfang Biopharma up 44.85% [4] - The IPO market in Hong Kong was active, with six new stocks listed, all recording gains on their debut. MiniMax saw a remarkable first-day increase of 109%, reaching a market value exceeding 100 billion HKD [4][7] Economic Indicators - China's December CPI data was released at 0.8%, the highest in nearly two years, while PPI showed a narrower decline, indicating positive price changes in some sectors [5] - The recent IPO activity and adjustments in Hong Kong Stock Connect are expected to attract additional southbound capital, creating a favorable trading environment [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market has regained momentum, driven by chip manufacturers like Broadcom, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices reaching new historical highs, despite a weaker-than-expected non-farm employment report [2][4]. Economic Data Summary - The US labor market shows a "low hiring, low layoffs" trend, with December non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below the expected 70,000, and November's figures revised down from 64,000 to 56,000 [4][5]. - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, better than the anticipated 4.5%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding the 0.2% forecast, and the year-on-year increase reached 3.8%, above the expected 3.6% [5]. - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for January rose by 1.1 points to 54.0, the highest since September of the previous year, although it remains low compared to the previous year due to inflation and employment market concerns [5]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have cooled, with probabilities for rate cuts in upcoming meetings significantly reduced: January from 17% to 5%, March from 53% to 29%, and April from 79% to 51% [6]. - The consensus is that the next rate cut may occur in June, with a theoretical probability of 100%, as the Fed appears to be waiting for more data before making any policy changes [6]. Market Performance Summary - The S&P 500 index has seen broad gains, with a 5.8% increase in the consumer discretionary sector leading the way, while materials and industrial sectors rose by 4.8% and 2.5%, respectively [7]. - Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 constituents are expected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth, with revenue growth at 7.6% [7]. - The current expected price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is approximately 22 times, down from 23 times in November but still above the five-year average of 19 times [7]. Investment Trends - There is a noticeable shift in investment towards non-tech sectors, with healthcare, industrials, biotech, materials, and financials benefiting from this rotation [8]. - Despite the overall market rally, large-cap tech stocks have shown relative weakness, indicating a more selective investment approach among investors [8]. - Notable stock performances include Google rising by 4.5% to a new high and Amazon increasing by over 8%, while Apple and Nvidia saw declines of 4% and 1.6%, respectively [8]. Future Market Considerations - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to hold at a short-term pressure level of 4.20%, which could support the stock market [9]. - Upcoming earnings reports and monthly inflation data are anticipated to increase market volatility, with potential risks from unexpected inflation data or profit-taking reactions to favorable earnings [9].