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市场恐慌阴霾再起,美股对冲成本飙升预警下行风险
智通财经网· 2025-08-02 07:00
Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 1.8%, marking its worst single-day performance since April, driven by fears of economic downturn due to tariff policies and disappointing job growth [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), known as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged to nearly 20, indicating increasing market pressure [1] - The cost of hedging against a potential 10% decline in the S&P 500 index ETF has reached its highest level since the regional banking crisis in May 2023, reflecting heightened concerns among investors [1] Group 2 - Following a 25% rise in the S&P 500 index since early April due to tariff impacts, investors are now seeking risk protection for the upcoming two months, particularly as the historically poor-performing months of August and September approach [3] - Data from Deutsche Bank indicates that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding stock long positions at the 94th percentile, the highest level since January 2020, suggesting confidence in the market but also potential for sharp reversals if conditions change [3] - Investor anxiety remains primarily focused on the short term, with the skewness indicator for S&P 500 options rising but still below levels seen before the April downturn [3]
事件落地,资?拥挤度释放
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 04:45
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-08-01 事件落地,资⾦拥挤度释放 股指期货:事件落地,资⾦拥挤度释放 股指期权:领⼝策略强化波动率结构 国债期货:市场继续消化政治局会议信息 股指期货方面,周四沪指低开低走,两市放量至1.96万亿元,前期主 线全面回落,仅有科技成长补涨。展望后市,中报季、阅兵前时点值得关 注,仍有事件交易机会,短期靴子落地式资金释放,我们建议看长做短, 配置型投资者继续持有IM多单,回撤反而成为加仓良机。 股指期权方面,尽管昨日升波下跌,但期权市场流动性并无显著提 升,成交量提升10%,而成交金额仅增加2.4%。波动率方面,IO、MO昨日 小幅抬升,但变化逻辑相异,MO的波动率微笑结构反映领口策略的强化, 即认沽波动率升,而认购波动率降;而IO波动率微笑结构相反,或反映市 场短期对成长风格更加谨慎,而对价值风格相对积极。综上,短线仍是双 卖为主,把握波动率回落,中期备兑思路不变。 国债期货方面,昨日国债期货主力合约继续上涨。昨日,国债期货高 开后震荡上行,市场继续消化政治局会议信息,债市情绪延续好转; 另外,7月PMI数据公布,制 ...
思看科技: 关于开展外汇衍生品交易业务的可行性分析报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-31 16:38
思看科技(杭州)股份有限公司 公司及控股子公司拟开展的外汇衍生品交易的资金来源为自有资金,不涉及 使用募集资金或银行信贷资金。 (三)交易方式 公司及控股子公司将按照衍生品套保原则和汇率风险中性管理原则,根据合 同需要灵活选择外汇远期、外汇期权、外汇掉期等结构相对简单透明、流动性强、 风险可认知、市场有公开参考价格、不超过 12 个月的外汇衍生工具,不从事复 杂嵌套、与不可控因素挂钩的外汇衍生工具交易。交易对手为具有外汇衍生品交 易业务经营资格、经营稳健且资信良好的国内和国际性金融机构。 三、开展外汇衍生品交易业务的必要性和可行性 一、公司开展外汇衍生品交易的背景 在外汇环境不稳定、汇率波动较为频繁的背景下,为有效防范和规避外币汇 率波动可能带来的不利影响,提高应对外汇波动风险的能力,促进财务稳健性, 公司及子公司拟使用自有资金开展外汇衍生品交易业务。 公司及子公司结合实际业务情况适度开展外汇衍生品交易业务具备必要性 和可行性,能在一定程度上防范和规避外汇市场波动有可能带来的风险,有利于 进一步增强财务稳健性,符合公司实际发展需要。 二、开展外汇衍生品交易业务的基本情况 (一)交易金额及期限 预计任一交易日持 ...
思看科技: 外汇衍生品交易业务管理制度
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-31 16:38
Core Points - The article outlines the foreign exchange derivatives trading management system of SiKan Technology (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd, aiming to standardize trading practices and enhance risk management [1][2] - The system is established in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, including the Company Law and Securities Law of the People's Republic of China, and is designed to ensure the safety of the company's assets [1][2] Group 1: General Principles - The foreign exchange derivatives trading business includes various products such as forward foreign exchange, swaps, options, and interest rate derivatives, aimed at mitigating exchange rate and interest rate risks [2][3] - The system applies to the company and its consolidated subsidiaries, requiring unified management and operation of foreign exchange derivatives trading by the company [2][3] Group 2: Basic Principles of Trading - The company must adhere to principles of legality, prudence, safety, and effectiveness in foreign exchange derivatives trading, focusing on normal business operations and avoiding speculative activities [2][3] - Transactions are only permitted with qualified financial institutions approved by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the People's Bank of China [3] Group 3: Approval Authority - The company's shareholders' meeting or board of directors serves as the decision-making and approval body for foreign exchange derivatives trading, with specific thresholds for approval based on transaction size and impact on net profit [4][5] - The board of directors can authorize the chairman to make investment decisions within approved limits [4][5] Group 4: Management and Operational Procedures - The management layer proposes trading limits based on estimated business scale and market analysis, which must be approved by the board of directors or shareholders' meeting [12] - The financial department is responsible for the specific operation and management of foreign exchange derivatives trading [12][13] Group 5: Risk Management Procedures - The financial department must monitor and report any significant abnormal situations in trading that may pose risks, ensuring timely communication with the board of directors [18][19] - Losses exceeding 10% of the company's most recent audited net profit must be disclosed promptly [19] Group 6: Confidentiality and Compliance - All personnel involved in foreign exchange derivatives trading must adhere to confidentiality protocols, ensuring that sensitive information is not disclosed without authorization [15][16] - The internal audit institution is responsible for supervising compliance with risk control policies and procedures [16]
瑞丰新材: 证券投资及衍生品交易管理制度(2025年7月修订)
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-30 16:36
第一章 总则 第一条 为规范新乡市瑞丰新材料股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")的证券 投资及衍生品交易行为,有效防范投资风险,保证投资资金安全和有效增值, 维护公司及股东合法权益,根据《中华人民共和国证券法》《深圳证券交易所 创业板股票上市规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第2号——创业 板上市公司规范运作》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第7号——交易 与关联交易》等有关法律、法规和规范性文件及公司章程的规定,结合公司实 际情况,制定本制度。 新乡市瑞丰新材料股份有限公司 证券投资及衍生品交易管理制度 (四)公司首次公开发行股票并上市前已进行的投资。 第六条 开展证券投资与衍生品交易的基本原则: (一)公司开展证券投资与衍生品交易应遵守国家法律、法规、规范性文 件等相关规定。 第二条 本制度适用于公司的证券投资及衍生品交易行为。 第三条 本制度所述的证券投资,包括新股配售或申购、证券回购、股票及 存托凭证投资、证券投资基金、债券投资以及深圳证券交易所认定的其他投资 行为。 第四条 本制度所述的衍生品交易,是指远期、期货、掉期(互换)和期权 等产品或者混合上述产品特征的金融工具。衍生品的基础资产既可 ...
股票股指期权:隐波回落,隐波溢价仍较多,可考虑备兑策略
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 14:11
Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoint - Stock index options: Implied volatility has declined, and there is still a significant implied volatility premium. A covered call strategy can be considered [2] Market Data Summary Underlying Market Statistics - **Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2819.35, up 10.76; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4151.24, down 0.79; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6718.48, down 55.40 [3] - **ETFs**: The Shanghai Composite 50 ETF closed at 2.943, up 0.009; the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF closed at 4.232, down 0.003; etc [3] Option Market Statistics - **Volume and Open Interest**: For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 index options was 56,146, an increase of 29,906; the open interest was 68,176, a decrease of 2,286 [3] - **PCR**: The VL-PCR and OI-PCR of different options vary, such as the VL-PCR of Shanghai Composite 50 index options was 51.35%, and the OI-PCR was 58.89% [3] Option Volatility Statistics - **ATM-IV and HV**: The ATM-IV of Shanghai Composite 50 index options (near - month) was 14.82%, down 1.32%; the same - term HV was 6.37%, up 0.05% [6] - **Skew and VIX**: The Skew of Shanghai Composite 50 index options was 9.62%, down 3.24%; the VIX was 18.64, down 0.976 [6]
胜宏科技: 外汇套期保值管理制度(2025年7月修订)
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-29 16:43
Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the foreign exchange hedging management system of Shenghong Technology (Huizhou) Co., Ltd, aiming to standardize hedging operations, mitigate foreign exchange risks, and ensure compliance with relevant laws and regulations [1][2][3]. Group 1: General Principles - The purpose of the hedging management system is to regulate foreign exchange hedging activities and effectively control foreign currency exchange rate risks [1]. - The hedging activities include various financial instruments such as forward foreign exchange contracts, foreign exchange swaps, currency swaps, foreign exchange options, interest rate swaps, and other foreign exchange derivatives [1][2]. - The system applies to both the company and its subsidiaries, treating subsidiary hedging activities as those of the listed company [1]. Group 2: Operational Regulations - The company must conduct hedging activities based on legitimate, prudent, safe, and effective principles, ensuring that these activities align with normal business operations and do not involve speculative trading [2]. - Hedging transactions are only permitted with financial institutions approved by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the People's Bank of China, and the hedging limits must not exceed those approved by the board or shareholders [2]. - The foreign exchange hedging contracts must not exceed the company's predicted foreign exchange receipts and payments, and the delivery period must match the actual execution period of the business [2]. Group 3: Approval Authority - A feasibility analysis report must be prepared and submitted to the board for approval before conducting hedging activities [3]. - Certain transactions require submission to the shareholders' meeting if they exceed specified thresholds related to net profit and net assets [3]. - The board of directors and the shareholders' meeting serve as the decision-making bodies for hedging activities [4]. Group 4: Management Process - The financial center is responsible for planning, funding, executing, and managing hedging activities, while the internal audit department oversees the actual operations and risk management [4][5]. - The financial center must analyze foreign exchange market trends and propose hedging plans, which require approval from the financial head and the company president [5]. - Each hedging transaction must be documented, and the internal audit department must regularly review the operations and report findings to the board's audit committee [5][6]. Group 5: Risk Management and Information Disclosure - All personnel involved in hedging must adhere to confidentiality protocols regarding transaction details and financial status [6]. - The financial center must ensure timely settlement with financial institutions based on actual foreign exchange receipts and payments [6][7]. - The company is required to disclose information related to hedging activities in accordance with regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [7].
股票股指期权:盘中隐波与标的呈现正相关上行,隐波溢价扩大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:51
Report Summary 1. Market Conditions - On July 29, 2025, in the stock index option market, the intraday implied volatility showed a positive correlation with the underlying assets and increased, and the implied volatility premium expanded [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Underlying Market Statistics - **Indices**: The closing prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, the CSI 1000 Index, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index were 4152.02, 6773.88, and 2808.59 respectively, with increases of 16.20, 43.91, and 5.82. Their trading volumes were 230.81 billion, 259.26 billion, and 47.05 billion shares, with changes of 8.05 billion, 6.52 billion, and - 2.69 billion shares [1]. - **ETFs**: The closing prices of the Huatai - Bairui 300 ETF, the Southern 500 ETF, and the ChinaAMC Science - Innovation 50 ETF were 4.235, 6.431, and 1.125 respectively, with increases of 0.021, 0.040, and 0.015. Their trading volumes were 8.06 billion, 2.13 billion, and 37.52 billion shares, with changes of 2.03 billion, 0.11 billion, and - 0.73 billion shares [1]. 2.2 Option Market Statistics - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Option, the CSI 1000 Index Option, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option were 71146, 181506, and 26240 respectively, with changes of - 5069, 476, and - 5095. Their open interests were 191714, 253286, and 70462 respectively, with changes of 3662, 7762, and 1265 [1]. - **PCR Indicators**: The VL - PCR of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Option, the CSI 1000 Index Option, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option were 58.24%, 81.44%, and 44.26% respectively, and the OI - PCR were 72.66%, 96.82%, and 55.62% respectively [1]. 2.3 Option Volatility Statistics - **ATM - IV and HV**: For the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Option, the near - month ATM - IV was 15.72% with a change of - 0.07%, and the same - term HV was 6.49% with a change of - 0.04%. For the CSI 1000 Index Option, the near - month ATM - IV was 19.03% with a change of - 0.36%, and the same - term HV was 8.53% with a change of 0.04% [4]. - **Skew and VIX**: The skew of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Option was 9.81% with a change of - 2.44%, and the VIX was 19.76 with a change of 0.059. The skew of the CSI 1000 Index Option was 1.81% with a change of - 1.18%, and the VIX was 23.21 with a change of - 0.002 [4]. 3. Option - Specific Charts - For each type of option (such as the Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Option, etc.), there are charts showing the full - contract PCR, the main - contract volatility, the main - contract skew, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [8][12][15].
股指期权周报:三大指数再创年内新高,日成交额1.8万亿-20250728
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 11:22
Report Title - "Three major indices hit new highs for the year, with daily trading volume reaching 1.8 trillion" - Stock Index Option Weekly Report 2025.7.28 [1] Core View - This week, the A-share market continued its upward trend, with the three major indices hitting new highs for the year and daily trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion. For the CSI 300 Index, the moving averages showed a long - position arrangement, and the three - color K - line indicators remained red both daily and weekly. The IF futures' current - month contract's basis to the underlying first shrank and then expanded, while the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed. The IO option's trading volume decreased, but the open interest increased, and both the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR rose, with implied volatility increasing, and the underlying index exceeding the strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options. The CSI 1000 Index's daily and weekly K - line indicators were also positive. The IM futures' current - month contract's discount to the underlying first expanded and then shrank, and the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed. The MO option's trading volume increased, and the open interest rose, with both PCRs rising, implied volatility increasing, and the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options moving up. The SSE 50 Index also had positive K - line indicators. The IH futures' current - month contract turned to a premium over the underlying, and the next - month contract remained at a premium to the current - month contract. The HO option's trading volume decreased, the open interest increased, the trading volume PCR rose, the open interest PCR decreased, implied volatility increased, and the strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options narrowed [2]. Summary by Directory 1. CSI 300 Stock Index Option (IO) - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 Index had five consecutive weekly positive K - lines, and the three - color K - line indicator remained red. The daily moving averages were in a long - position arrangement, and the three - color K - line indicator also remained red [10][13]. - **Futures Basis**: The IF futures' current - month contract's basis to the underlying first shrank and then expanded, and the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed [20][23]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 300 stock index futures decreased, and the open interest also decreased [25]. - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IO options decreased, but the open interest increased [28]. - **Option PCR**: Both the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of IO options increased [31]. - **Option Strike Price**: The underlying index exceeded the strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options, and the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options for the 2508 contract were both 4100, with the option pain point at 4000 [15][34]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of IO options increased [17] 2. CSI 1000 Stock Index Option (MO) - **Index Performance**: The CSI 1000 Index's daily moving averages were in a long - position arrangement, hitting a new high for the year, and the three - color K - line indicators remained red both daily and weekly [38][41]. - **Futures Basis**: The IM futures' current - month contract's discount to the underlying first expanded and then shrank, and the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed [49][51]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 1000 stock index futures decreased, and the open interest also decreased [54]. - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of MO options increased, and the open interest rose [57]. - **Option PCR**: Both the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of MO options increased [60]. - **Option Strike Price**: The strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options for the 2508 contract were 6800 and 6500 respectively, and the option pain point was 6500. The strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options both moved up [43][63]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of MO options increased [46] 3. SSE 50 Stock Index Option (HO) - **Index Performance**: The SSE 50 Index had five consecutive weekly positive K - lines, and the three - color K - line indicator remained red. The daily moving averages were in a long - position arrangement, and the three - color K - line indicator also remained red [67][70]. - **Futures Basis**: The IH futures' current - month contract turned to a premium over the underlying, and the next - month contract remained at a premium to the current - month contract [78][80]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SSE 50 stock index futures decreased, and the open interest also decreased [83]. - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of HO options decreased, but the open interest increased [85]. - **Option PCR**: The trading volume PCR of HO options increased, while the open interest PCR decreased [87]. - **Option Strike Price**: The strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options for the 2508 contract were 2800 and 2750 respectively, and the option pain point was 2750. The strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options narrowed [72][88]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of HO options increased [75] Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Strategy**: Pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties [2]. - **Volatility Strategy**: Buy a strangle to go long on volatility [2]
华尔街恐慌指数创新低,空头纷纷缴械投降
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-25 02:44
Group 1 - The VIX index has dropped to its lowest intraday level since mid-February, indicating a decrease in Wall Street's expectations for volatility in the coming month [1][4] - The decline in the VIX suggests that some investors betting on a decline in the S&P 500 are closing their positions, particularly "volatility buyers" who profit from market downturns [4] - The realized volatility of the S&P 500 has fallen significantly, with a one-month realized volatility of only 6.9%, which is notably lower than the VIX [4] Group 2 - Despite the low VIX indicating complacency in the summer market, historical trends suggest that volatility may rise in August, often accompanied by a decline in the stock market [5] - Concerns over market liquidity during the vacation season in August could exacerbate volatility, as many seasoned traders take time off, leading to a potential liquidity vacuum [5] - The VIX's low levels may not last, with expectations from RBC Capital Markets indicating a potential rebound in the VIX next month [4]