Core Viewpoint - The introduction of interest rate swap contracts based on the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR1Y) under the "Northbound Swap Connect" aims to enhance risk management tools for overseas investors and meet their diverse interest rate risk management needs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Development - Since its launch on May 15, 2023, the "Swap Connect" has been operating smoothly, becoming an important channel for overseas institutional investors to manage RMB interest rate risk [2]. - As of the end of August 2025, 82 overseas financial institutions from 15 countries and regions have conducted over 15,000 RMB interest rate swap transactions, totaling a nominal principal of approximately 8.15 trillion RMB [2]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Operations - The collaboration between the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, Shanghai Clearing House, and Hong Kong's OTC Clearing Limited has facilitated the seamless execution and clearing of transactions under the "Northbound Swap Connect" [1][2]. - The dual Central Counterparty (CCP) interconnection and single resource pool arrangement have reduced participation complexity for domestic and foreign investors while effectively managing systemic risks [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The three-party infrastructure will continue to work closely with market participants under the guidance of regulatory authorities to enrich "Swap Connect" products and enhance the risk management framework [3].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the stock index options market on September 19, 2025, indicating that the market was volatile, ETF options were approaching expiration, and the term volatility spread widened [1]. Market Data Statistics Underlying Market Statistics - The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2909.74, down 3.08, with a trading volume of 5.724 billion shares, a decrease of 1.762 billion shares. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 2915.73 and 2924.47 respectively, with basis points of 5.99 and 14.72 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4501.92, up 3.81, with a trading volume of 22.504 billion shares, a decrease of 8.482 billion shares. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 4491.27 and 4492.47 respectively, with basis points of -10.65 and -9.45 [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7438.19, down 38.21, with a trading volume of 29.59 billion shares, a decrease of 10.27 billion shares. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 7354.67 and 7298.73 respectively, with basis points of -83.52 and -139.46 [1]. - Various ETFs also showed different closing prices, trading volumes, and changes, such as the Shanghai Composite 50 ETF closing at 3.045, down 0.003, with a trading volume of 656 million shares, a decrease of 649 million shares [1]. Options Market Statistics - For the Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, the trading volume was 62,129, a decrease of 56,460, and the open interest was 55,579, a decrease of 48,318. The VL - PCR was 67.73%, and the OI - PCR was 60.10%. The maximum call and put open interests in the near - month were at strike prices of 3000 and 2850 respectively [1]. - Similar data were provided for other index options and ETF options, including the CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, and various ETF options [1]. Options Volatility Statistics - In the near - month, for the Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, the ATM - IV was 21.01%, a decrease of 2.19%, the same - term HV was 13.63%, a decrease of 0.07%, the Skew was 11.81%, an increase of 1.10%, and the VIX was 19.38, a decrease of 2.509 [4]. - Similar volatility data were presented for other index options and ETF options, both in the near - month and next - month [4]. Index and ETF Option Charts - The report includes various charts for different index and ETF options, such as the full - contract PCR chart, the main - contract skewness chart, the volatility cone chart, and the volatility term - structure chart for the Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, and multiple ETF options [8][12][15].

Report Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for different financial derivatives, the outlooks are as follows: - **Stock Index Futures**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [7] - **Stock Index Options**: Oscillating [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [8] Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The technology sector has a short - term advantage. Short - term adjustments are mainly due to capital reallocation, while the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the possibility of configuring IM long positions, as technology stocks have a comparative advantage [1][7] - **Stock Index Options**: Trading is driven by intraday reversals. It is recommended to use covered strategies and closely monitor volatility changes. When volatility rises abnormally, the selling side of options can temporarily exit the market [2][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The impact of the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakening. In the short term, the central bank's attitude towards the capital market is supportive for the short - end, while the long - end yield of bonds is still affected by risk appetite and policy expectations. Short - term attention can be paid to long - end arbitrage opportunities and the opportunity for the yield curve to steepen [3][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The market first rose and then declined. The STAR Market once soared, and the technology sector continued to attract capital. However, the loss - making effect in the afternoon increased, and value stocks led the decline [1][7] - **Key Phenomena**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, commodities were generally weak, and the slightly hawkish stance boosted the US dollar, putting pressure on commodities and value stocks. Brokerages and stock - trading software were sluggish, and funds avoided areas with concentrated chips. The proportion of stocks outperforming the Wind All - A Index decreased, indicating that funds were flowing into relatively crowded areas, causing downward pressure on weak stocks [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM [7] Stock Index Options - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume in the options market was 21.04 billion yuan, a 62.60% increase from the previous trading day, driven by intraday reversals [2][7] - **Market Characteristics**: The positive delta exposure of sellers decreased, and there were signs of a slight rebound in the skewness index and a significant increase in the ratio PCR. The implied volatility of some products decreased significantly at the end of the session, presumably due to the impact of intraday put - buying profit - taking [2][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Use covered strategies [8] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with a larger increase at the long - end [3][8] - **Capital Situation**: The central bank's net injection of 195 billion yuan did not ease the tight capital situation in the inter - bank market. The DR001 weighted average interest rate rose above 1.5%, which was negative for the short - end of the bond market. The decline in the equity market had limited impact on boosting the bond market sentiment, and the long - end yield rose more [3][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a cautiously oscillating trend strategy. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, focus on long - end arbitrage opportunities. For curve strategies, pay attention to the opportunity for the yield curve to steepen [9] 2. Economic Calendar - The report provides the economic data of different regions from September 15 to September 19, 2025, including China's social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, the eurozone's economic sentiment index, the US retail sales, import price index, federal funds rate, and Japan's CPI [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, and the dot - plot median shows that there is still room for a 50bp interest - rate cut within the year. The Bank of England maintained its policy interest rate unchanged in September and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening, warning of the risk of a wage - price spiral [11] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [12][16][28]

Report Date - The report is dated September 18, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoint - The stock index options show a downward volatility trend, with sentiment回调, and the index options are approaching maturity [2] Market Data Summary Underlying Market Statistics - The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2912.83, down 39.95, with a trading volume of 74.86 billion hands and a change of 18.19 billion hands. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 2908.93 and 2912.20 respectively, with basis of -3.89 and -0.63 [3] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4498.11, down 52.91, with a trading volume of 309.86 billion hands and a change of 74.14 billion hands. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 4484.13 and 4473.80 respectively, with basis of -13.98 and -24.31 [3] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7476.40, down 78.41, with a trading volume of 398.60 billion hands and a change of 96.89 billion hands. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 7449.93 and 7366.20 respectively, with basis of -26.47 and -110.20 [3] Option Market Statistics - The trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 118,589, an increase of 60,763, and the open interest was 103,897, a decrease of 1580. The VL-PCR was 56.08% and the OI-PCR was 60.46%. The maximum call and put open interests (near - month) were at strike prices of 3000 and 2900 respectively [3] - The trading volume of CSI 300 Index options was 304,276, an increase of 123,482, and the open interest was 238,898, a decrease of 4051. The VL-PCR was 67.07% and the OI-PCR was 81.48%. The maximum call and put open interests (near - month) were at strike prices of 4500 and 4550 respectively [3] - The trading volume of CSI 1000 Index options was 708,257, an increase of 271,637, and the open interest was 344,711, a decrease of 10,505. The VL-PCR was 84.96% and the OI-PCR was 110.83%. The maximum call and put open interests (near - month) were at strike prices of 7500 and 7000 respectively [3] Option Volatility Statistics - For near - month options, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 20.14%, down 1.81%, and the VIX was 21.88, down 0.199 [6] - The ATM - IV of CSI 300 Index options was 17.44%, down 2.84%, and the VIX was 21.55, down 1.142 [6] - The ATM - IV of CSI 1000 Index options was 19.87%, down 6.08%, and the VIX was 27.20, down 0.716 [6] Graphical Analysis - The report includes various graphs for different types of options, such as PCR graphs,主力合约偏度 graphs, volatility cone graphs, and volatility term structure graphs for Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, and multiple ETF options [10][14][17]

Core Insights - Hong Kong's derivatives market has become a crucial part of the local financial system and a major growth driver in Asia, particularly in offshore RMB and interest rate derivatives [1][2] - The market has seen over a twofold increase in trading volume and open interest over the past decade, indicating significant depth and liquidity [1] - The average daily trading volume of exchange-traded derivatives contracts reached a historical high last year [1] Group 1: Market Growth Drivers - The strong growth is primarily driven by three flagship products: Hang Seng Index futures, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index futures, and Hang Seng Tech Index futures [2] - Demand for individual stock options and offshore RMB futures has further propelled this growth, contributing approximately 90% to the total trading volume since 2015 [2] - The continuous opening of the mainland market has strengthened Hong Kong's role as a "super connector" between domestic and foreign markets [2] Group 2: Regional Market Performance - Asia's share in the global derivatives market has significantly increased from 49% in 2021 to 82% in 2024, with contract trading volume surging 4.5 times to 169.2 billion contracts [2] - Emerging markets like India have contributed to this growth, alongside a rising demand for derivatives as hedging tools [2] Group 3: Innovative Mechanisms - The launch of the Swap Connect mechanism is a milestone, facilitating overseas investors' participation in the onshore RMB interest rate swap market [3] - Since its inception, the Swap Connect has seen a nominal principal transaction total exceeding 8.1 trillion RMB, averaging about 14.5 billion RMB daily, accounting for approximately 10% of the mainland interest rate swap market [3] - The extension of the maximum term for northbound swap contracts from 10 years to 30 years enhances product variety and provides effective tools for managing risks associated with long-term RMB government bonds [3]

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures are "oscillating bullish", "oscillating", and "oscillating" respectively [7][8][9]. Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures are expected to rise moderately, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Incremental funds come from leveraged funds, long - term institutional funds, and quantitative funds. The recommended configuration is to continue holding IM long positions [1][7]. - Stock index option sentiment has strengthened again. The trading volume of the option market has rebounded, the proportion of call options has increased, and implied volatility has risen. Consider reducing short - option positions if volatility continues to rise [2][7]. - Bond futures show a flattening yield curve. Although the short - end is affected by tightened funds and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the market's expectation of the central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading operations boosts bullish sentiment. Short - term opportunities for long - end arbitrage and curve steepening can be focused on [2][8][9]. Summary by Section Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis, spread, and total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have changed. The market shows a moderately upward trend, with the GEM, STAR 50, and CSI 1000 being relatively strong. The recommended operation is to hold IM [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The trading volume of the option market is 12939 million yuan, a 25.89% increase from the previous trading day. The proportion of call options has increased, and the PCR of open interest remains high. Consider reducing short - option positions if volatility continues to rise. The recommended strategy is a covered call [2][7]. - **Bond Futures**: The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed. The central bank's net injection is 1145 million yuan, but the tax period affects the short - end negatively. The stock - bond seesaw effect also has a negative impact, but the expectation of the central bank's operations boosts bullish sentiment. Different strategies are recommended for trends, hedging, basis, and curve [7][8][9]. Economic Calendar - Data on China's social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, eurozone economic sentiment index, US retail sales, import price index, federal funds rate target, and Japan's CPI are presented, including previous values, predicted values, and announced values [10]. Important Information and News Tracking - The US President has extended the TikTok ban for three months until December 16. From January to August, China's general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, with tax revenue slightly increasing and non - tax revenue growing by 1.5%. The general public budget expenditure increased by 3.1% year - on - year [11]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Data on stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures are monitored, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [12][16][28].

Report Date - The report is dated September 17, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Stock index options are experiencing an upward volatility trend, with implied volatility rising to a medium-high level. It is advisable to consider building long option positions on dips for protection [1] Key Data Summaries 1. Underlying Market Statistics - **Indices**: The closing prices of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 2952.78, 4551.02, and 7554.81 respectively, with increases of 4.96, 27.69, and 71.18. Their trading volumes were 56.67 billion, 235.72 billion, and 301.71 billion shares respectively, showing decreases of 0.97 billion, 13.55 billion, and 7.30 billion shares [2] - **ETFs**: The closing prices of various ETFs such as SSE 50 ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, and Southern CSI 500 ETF showed different degrees of increase, and their trading volumes also had corresponding changes [2] 2. Option Market Statistics - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of various stock index options and ETF options showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the trading volume of SSE 50 Index Options increased by 11,756 to 57,826, and the open interest increased by 4,820 to 105,477 [2] - **PCR Indicators**: The VL-PCR and OI-PCR of different options also varied. For instance, the VL-PCR of SSE 50 Index Options was 48.38%, and the OI-PCR was 63.55% [2] 3. Option Volatility Statistics - **ATM-IV and HV**: The at-the-money implied volatility (ATM-IV) and historical volatility (HV) of different options showed different trends. For example, the ATM-IV of SSE 50 Index Options (near - month) was 21.94%, with an increase of 2.39%, and the HV was 7.38%, with an increase of 4.06% [5] - **Skew and VIX**: The skew and VIX of different options also had corresponding changes. For example, the skew of SSE 50 Index Options (near - month) was 14.02%, with an increase of 9.46%, and the VIX was 22.08, with an increase of 0.874 [5] Option - Specific Charts - For each type of option (SSE 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, etc.), there are charts showing full - contract PCR,主力 contract volatility,主力 contract skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure [9][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The stock market shows resilience, and the bond market sentiment has improved. For stock index futures, the market is resilient, and it is recommended to maintain an active allocation before the National Day with a preference for the growth sector and continue to hold IM long positions. For stock index options, there are short - term gaming disturbances, and a covered strategy is recommended in the medium term. For treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment has improved, and short - term attention can be paid to long - end arbitrage opportunities and curve steepening opportunities [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: The market is resilient. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts, the spreads between current - month and next - month contracts, and the total positions have changed. Yesterday, the market recovered in the afternoon, with small - cap stocks outperforming large - cap stocks, and the trading volume was 2.3 trillion with a recent shrinking trend. Before the National Day, an active allocation is maintained, and the style is biased towards growth. The financial data in August shows that the transfer of household deposits is accelerating, the M1M2 gap is rising, and consumption and inflation are difficult to increase, which promotes policy expectations and funds flowing into the technology sector. It is recommended to hold IM [3][9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: There are short - term gaming disturbances, and a covered strategy is recommended in the medium term. Yesterday, the option market turnover was 1.0278 billion yuan, a 15.46% increase from the previous trading day. It is speculated that call option gaming is dominant due to large inter - variety differentiation and an increase in the average implied volatility. The put option trading volume increased, and the overall bullish sentiment decreased. A covered strategy is recommended because the large delta exposure of sellers implies a low probability of a rapid short - term pullback, and there is potential for a short - volatility strategy [4][9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment has improved. The trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed. Yesterday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, but the tightening of inter - bank funds and the results of the Sino - US Madrid talks were negative for the bond market. However, the expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading operations has boosted the bullish sentiment. In the short term, the central bank will support the short - end, and the long - end yield is affected by risk preference and policy expectations. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the trend strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, long - end arbitrage opportunities, and curve steepening opportunities [5][10][12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It lists the economic data of different regions this week, including China's August social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year rate, industrial added value year - on - year rate, the eurozone's September ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US August retail sales month - on - month rate, etc. Some data have been released, and some are yet to be announced [13]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **China Macro**: On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, including promoting consumption activities, cross - border cooperation, extending business hours of cultural and tourist venues, and optimizing student vacation arrangements [14]. - **US Macro**: The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump - nominated Fed governor nominee Milan's appointment has been confirmed and can attend the September FOMC meeting [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Specific data on basis, spreads, and positions are provided, but detailed data is not repeated here [9]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: The turnover and implied volatility changes are mentioned, but detailed data is not repeated here [4][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis of different contracts are provided, but detailed data is not repeated here [10].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong will continue discussions with mainland institutions to implement offshore government bond futures and expand the variety of interest rate derivatives under the swap connect, while promoting the development of over-the-counter derivatives and cross-border RMB repurchase business with the mainland [1] Group 1 - The Hong Kong government aims to encourage more companies to issue bonds in Hong Kong, increasing market engagement from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, the Monetary Authority, and the Stock Exchange [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures and treasury bond futures), precious metals, and multiple commodity futures (like non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products). It assesses market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding investment suggestions for each sector. For example, in the stock index futures market, the technology sector has regained strength, and there is sector rotation of funds; in the precious metals market, the expectation of monetary easing is rising before the Fed's decision, driving up the prices of gold and silver; in the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][8][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the major indices opened higher and then retreated. The stock market showed a pattern of sector rotation. The technology sector was strong, and the financial sector adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performance. The main contracts IF2509 and IH2509 fell, while IC2509 and IM2509 rose. The market is influenced by domestic and overseas news, such as Sino - US economic and trade talks and the appointment of a new Fed governor. The current basis of the main contracts has been rapidly repaired. It is recommended to consider a double - buy strategy if the volatility decreases [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures mostly rose. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. The central bank increased liquidity injection, and the money market was in a state of convergence. Although the money market was tight during the tax period, the bond market showed a recovery due to the increased allocation value and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases. It is recommended that investors wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the money market and the central bank's operations [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of monetary easing continued to rise, and the US dollar index fell to a new low for the year. Gold prices reached a new high and then retreated, while silver prices fell due to the correction in the non - ferrous metal sector. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [7][8][9]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market is focused on the FOMC meeting. The spot price has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream demand. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the output of refined copper is expected to decline in September. The inventory shows a pattern of de - stocking in LME and stocking in the domestic market. It is expected that the copper price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [10][12][13]. - **Alumina**: The spot price has declined, and the supply is increasing. Although the futures price has rebounded, the market is still in a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. It is expected that the main contract will oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton in the short term, and it is advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price is stable. The output of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the process of recovery. The inventory shows a pattern of repeated changes. It is expected that the aluminum price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is stable. The output of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to increase in September. The demand is gradually recovering. The inventory is in the process of accumulation. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is in the process of recovery. The domestic inventory is accumulating, while the LME inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the zinc price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the price is at a high level. The spot price is high, and the trading is light. The import of tin ore has decreased, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the tin price will be range - bound at a high level, and the main contract is expected to trade between 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [26][27][28]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is improving, and the price is strongly range - bound. The output of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory is increasing. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [29][30][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is range - bound and slightly weak. The cost is supported, but the demand has not fully recovered. The inventory is decreasing slowly. It is expected that the price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is positive, and the price is strongly range - bound. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel rose due to the expected contraction in the coal supply. The spot price of rebar increased more than that of hot - rolled coil, and the spread between them narrowed. The supply of steel is at a high level, and the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The inventory is expected to rise. It is recommended to try short - term long positions, with the upper resistance level of rebar at 3350 yuan and that of hot - rolled coil at 3500 yuan [40][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is strongly range - bound. The global shipment of iron ore has increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. The demand for iron ore is supported by the increase in steel production and the need for replenishment. The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal is expected to rebound. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is increasing due to the increase in steel production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long coking coal and short coke [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is expected to rebound. The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the third - round cut is difficult. The supply of coke is increasing, and the demand is supported by the increase in steel production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long coking coal and short coke [51][55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The price of soybean meal has stabilized. The US soybean export inspection volume has increased, and the Brazilian new soybean planting has started. The domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the 01 contract will trade between 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton [57][58][59]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of live pigs is oscillating weakly. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the demand is slowly recovering. The profit of pig farming has decreased. It is expected that the price will continue to bottom - out [60][61]. - **Corn**: The price of corn is under pressure. The new - season corn in the Northeast is slow to be listed, and the supply in the North China region has increased. The demand is mainly for replenishment. It is expected that the price will be range - bound and weak in the short and medium terms [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar has rebounded from an oversold level, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating. The supply of raw sugar is in surplus, and the domestic sugar inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to short on rallies [64].