机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/丁骄琬 腾讯2Q 业绩：营收同增14.5%，高于VA 一致预期3%（下同）。分业务看，增值服务、广告、金科收入 分别同比增长16/20/10%，对应毛利率同比改善3.4/1.9/4.5pct。经调整归母净利润同增10%，超预期 3%，剔除联营企业损益影响后同增22%。2Q AI 相关的现金资本开支为229 亿，环比持平。从长线看， 腾讯作为射击游戏的龙头开发商，有望实现玩家和商业化双轮驱动(国内渗透率快速提升)，《三角洲行 动》7 月成为头部游戏，《无畏契约》手游8 月19 日待上线，未来储备包括多款重要射击和大世界游 戏。 我们看好广告和电商佣金的双线增长，视频号impression 稳步增长，AI 驱动广告eCPM 和点击率提升。 上调目标价至742.19 港元，维持买入评级。 2Q 游戏收入加速增长，《三角洲行动》成为头部常青游戏2Q 增值服务收入同增16%，高于预期4%； 毛利率同比改善3.4pct，主系自研游戏占比提升。二季度国内/海外游戏同增17/35%，超一致预期 2/15%。 海外《皇室战争》加大更新频次，6 月流水创下7 年新高。美国与澳洲AppStore 逐 ...

Core Insights - Tencent's Q2 revenue reached 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%, with operating profit at 60.1 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, and Non-IFRS net profit at 63.1 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Gaming Performance - "Delta Action" and evergreen games showed strong performance, with "Delta Action" achieving an average DAU of over 20 million in July, up from a peak of 12 million in April, ranking among the top 5 in DAU and top 3 in revenue [1] - Domestic game revenue increased by 17% year-on-year to 40.4 billion yuan, driven by long-term game revenue growth and new game contributions [1] - Overseas game revenue reached 18.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%, marking a record high for four consecutive quarters, with a growth rate not seen in nearly nine quarters [1] Group 2: Deferred Revenue and Memberships - As of June 30, Tencent's deferred revenue was 120.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, supporting future game growth [2] - Tencent Video's paid membership decreased by 3% year-on-year to 114 million, while Tencent Music's paid membership increased by 6% to 124 million [2] Group 3: Advertising and AI Impact - Tencent increased the application of AI in advertising, enhancing click-through rates and conversion rates, leading to a 20% year-on-year increase in marketing services revenue to 35.8 billion yuan [2] - The demand for advertising services on platforms like WeChat and video accounts has strengthened due to AI-driven improvements [2] Group 4: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Commercial payment amounts recovered year-on-year growth in Q2, contributing to higher revenue in financial technology services [3] - Enterprise service revenue grew by 10% year-on-year to 55.5 billion yuan, driven by increased demand for AI-related services [3] Group 5: Profitability and Margins - Tencent's Q2 gross margin reached 56.9%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, with improvements across various segments including value-added services and marketing services [4] - Non-IFRS net profit for Q2 was 63.1 billion yuan, influenced by increased sales and administrative expenses due to AI-related business development [4] - Capital expenditures in Q2 increased by 118.89% year-on-year to 19.1 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 10.4% of revenue [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that the company has exceeded revenue and profit expectations, driven by strong advertising performance and deepening AI strategies [1] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 733.8 billion, 797.3 billion, and 871.3 billion yuan, respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits projected at 255.3 billion, 282.5 billion, and 314.3 billion yuan [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 184.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with adjusted operating profit of 69.2 billion yuan, up 18.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The international gaming performance is strong, with value-added services revenue reaching 91.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [2] - Domestic and overseas game revenues were 40.4 billion yuan and 18.8 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 16.8% and 35.3% [2] - New games like "Delta Action" have achieved over 20 million daily active users, while existing games are evolving towards platformization with increased AI applications [2] Group 3 - AI is driving advertising and platform functionality upgrades, with marketing services revenue reaching 35.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [3] - The growth in marketing services is attributed to improvements in AI-driven advertising platforms and increased demand from advertisers for services on platforms like WeChat [3] - The company’s enterprise services revenue grew to 55.5 billion yuan, up 10.1% year-on-year, benefiting from increased demand for consumer loan services and commercial payment activities [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue increase of 15% year-on-year to 184.5 billion RMB in Q2 2025, exceeding market expectations by 4% and 3% respectively [1] - Gross profit increased by 22% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of approximately 3.6 percentage points to 57%, driven by high-margin businesses such as domestic games, video accounts, and cost optimization in payment and cloud services [1] - Adjusted earnings per share rose by 13% year-on-year to 6.79 RMB, surpassing market expectations by 5% and 3% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic game revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, benefiting from the new game "Delta Operation" and revenue growth from several evergreen games [1] - Overseas game revenue surged by 35%, significantly exceeding expectations, with strong performances from "PUBG MOBILE" and Supercell games, along with contributions from the new game "Dune: Awakening" [1] - Social revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, driven by mobile game item sales, video account live service revenue, and music subscription growth [1] - Marketing revenue maintained a 20% year-on-year growth rate, supported by enhanced advertising effectiveness from upgraded base models, leading to strong demand for video account, search, and mini-program advertisements [1] - Financial technology revenue saw single-digit growth, with a recovery in commercial payment transaction volume; enterprise service revenue accelerated due to increased demand for AI-related services [1] Future Outlook and Valuation - The company's strong Q2 performance boosts market confidence in sustained business growth, with projected overall revenue growth of 11% for Q3, compared to the previous market expectation of 10% [2] - Revenue growth rates for social, gaming, financial services, and marketing are expected to be 7%, 13%, 7%, and 18% respectively, driven by evergreen games, new game releases, financial services, and increased demand for cloud and API services [2] - Despite ongoing investments in AI, the company aims to balance cost control and profitability, with profit growth expected to continue outpacing revenue growth [2] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 2%-3% and 2%-10% respectively [2] - The valuation has been adjusted to a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, with a target price increase to 700 HKD, maintaining a buy rating [2]

Core Insights - Tencent reported strong financial results for 2Q25, with total revenue and non-IFRS operating income increasing by 15% and 18% year-on-year to RMB184.5 billion and RMB69.2 billion respectively, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3% and 4% [1] Group 1: Gaming Performance - Games revenue grew by 22% year-on-year to RMB59.2 billion in 2Q25, exceeding consensus estimates by 5% [3] - Domestic games revenue increased by 17% year-on-year to RMB40.4 billion, driven by the success of Delta Force and evergreen games, with Delta Force achieving over 20 million average daily active users [3] - International games revenue rose by 35% year-on-year to RMB18.8 billion, supported by Supercell's games, PUBG Mobile, and the launch of Dune: Awakening [3] Group 2: Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue increased by 20% year-on-year to RMB35.8 billion in 2Q25, 2% ahead of consensus estimates, primarily due to AI enhancements and the Weixin transaction ecosystem [4] - Revenue from Video Accounts, Mini Programs, and Weixin Search grew approximately 50%, 50%, and 60% year-on-year respectively [4] - The company is optimistic about the marketing business's growth potential, driven by AI-enhanced ad conversion and increased ad load [4] Group 3: Fintech and Business Services - Fintech and Business Services (FBS) revenue grew by 10% year-on-year to RMB55.5 billion in 2Q25, with fintech revenue accelerating to high-single-digit growth [5] - Business services revenue growth also accelerated to the teens percentage year-on-year, driven by AI cloud and e-commerce services [5] - Gross profit margin (GPM) for FBS expanded by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year to 52.1% due to a favorable revenue mix and improved efficiency [5] Group 4: Profitability and Investment - Non-IFRS operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 37.5% in 2Q25 [6] - Capital expenditures for 1H25 grew by 102% year-on-year to RMB46.6 billion, representing 13% of total revenue, with continued investments in AI infrastructure and marketing [6] - Despite increased investments and depreciation, non-IFRS net profit margin (NPM) is expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point year-on-year in FY25 and FY26 due to operating leverage and AI empowerment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated strong financial performance in 2Q25, with a 15% year-over-year topline growth, a gross profit margin (GPM) of 56.9%, and an adjusted operating profit of RMB69.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, all surpassing consensus expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue reached RMB184.5 billion, marking a 15% year-over-year increase, exceeding consensus by 3% and BOCIe by 2% [4]. - Domestic games revenue increased by 17% year-over-year, while overseas games revenue surged by 35% year-over-year [4]. - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, driven by significant increases in video accounts, mini-programs, and Weixin search [4]. - Adjusted operating profit rose by 18% year-over-year to RMB69.2 billion, beating BOCIe estimates by 3% [4]. - Capital expenditures amounted to RMB19.1 billion, representing 10% of total revenue [4]. Group 2: AI Integration and Growth - The company is positioned as a beneficiary of AI, leveraging it for sustainable growth across core business segments and enhancing user experience and monetization [2]. - AI is expected to improve production, analysis, targeting, and recommendation capabilities in online advertising, contributing to increased return on investment [3][2]. - The company is committed to AI investments and product promotions, which are reflected in the raised gross profit forecasts due to a shift towards in-house titles and high-margin ad formats [3]. Group 3: Forecast Adjustments - Domestic games revenue forecasts have been raised by 0-1%, while overseas games revenue estimates have been increased by 4-6% [3]. - Online advertising revenue estimates have been uplifted by 1-2% to account for enhanced ROI from AI initiatives [3]. - The overall growth momentum is supported by a favorable revenue mix and channel optimization [3]. Group 4: Valuation and Recommendations - The company maintains a "BUY" rating and has raised the target price to HK$705.0, reflecting a 24x and 20x adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for 2025E and 2026E, respectively [1][4]. - The valuation is based on updated estimates and corresponding gross profit growth multiples for various segments [4].

Group 1: TikTok Shop Performance - TikTok Shop's global GMV reached $25 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 120% year-on-year growth, with the US leading at $5.45 billion [1] - Southeast Asia showed strong performance, with Thailand and Indonesia contributing $5.42 billion and $4.34 billion respectively, and both markets experiencing growth rates exceeding 100% [1] - The beauty and personal care category dominated in multiple countries, with the US generating $1.221 billion in GMV for this category [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The platform is accelerating its global expansion by adding new markets such as Germany and Italy, and plans to launch an "AI product selection assistant" [1] - Video marketing is the primary sales method, with the US averaging over 4 million videos per month, and Indonesia also seeing 4 million monthly videos [1] - Emerging markets are expected to become new growth drivers, enhancing TikTok Shop's influence in the global social commerce sector [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Product Categories - In Thailand, 87% of sales were from products priced under $10, while in Singapore, products over $100 contributed 80% of GMV [1] - The top-performing categories in the US included health and beauty, while in Thailand, beauty shops accounted for seven of the top stores [1] - The platform's head stores are concentrated in specific categories, with Vietnam leading in food and beverage GMV [1]

Group 1 - NetEase Youdao (DAO) stock increased by 2.31% to $9.085 per share, with a total market capitalization of $1.086 billion as of August 15 [1] - For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, NetEase Youdao reported total revenue of 1.298 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 6.72%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 76.743 million RMB, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 517.3% [1] Group 2 - NetEase Youdao is set to disclose its fiscal year 2025 interim report on August 28, with the actual disclosure date subject to company announcement [2] - The company operates primarily through its domestic subsidiary, NetEase Youdao Information Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd., and is recognized as a leading smart learning company in China [2] - Founded in 2006 and affiliated with NetEase Inc. (NASDAQ: NTES; Hong Kong Stock Code: 9999), Youdao offers user-oriented learning products and services, including online courses and interactive learning applications [2]

腾讯位于深圳大铲湾码头的全球总部园区——"企鹅岛"，目前整体建设进度已达30%。根据腾讯最新官 方消息，园区内已建成的部分区域将于今年10月起进入试运营阶段。 园区设计最大亮点是一条贯穿全岛的"中央绿脊"。通过局部抬升场地至12米，并在绿脊周边分层布局露 天剧场、屋顶花园、创客咖啡等社交空间，结合空中连廊、步行道和绿地系统，形成一张立体的"工作- 生活-休闲"无缝慢行网络，并实现与交通站点、滨海公园的无障碍连接。 该园区地处深圳市宝安区西乡街道，紧邻宝安国际机场与宝安中心区，占地规模达80.9万平方米。自 2021年动工以来，这座集研发、办公、生活、文化于一体的巨型综合体正加速成型，未来建成后总建筑 面积将突破300万平方米，预计可容纳超过8万名员工在此办公，其公共区域届时也将向公众开放。 10月首批投入试运营的区域，主要包括基本建成的04街区和05街区。04街区以办公、会议和展览功能为 主，其标志性建筑——三座腾云中心与六座云海大厦，依托中央绿脊构建出独特的"环状纽带"结构。 这些建筑高度由陆地向海洋方向自然递减，形成流动的城市天际线，其中云海大厦的两栋办公楼将率先 启用。与之相邻的05街区则主要承担生活配 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent has reported record-high financial results for the second quarter, achieving significant revenue and profit growth, driven primarily by its gaming business and advancements in AI technology [1][11]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached 184.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15% [2]. - Net profit grew by 17% to 55.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement to 57% [1][2]. - The company achieved its fastest revenue growth in four years and a new high in gross margin [1]. Gaming Business - Gaming revenue amounted to 59.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 22% year-on-year increase [5]. - Domestic game revenue was 40.4 billion RMB, up 17%, while international game revenue surged by 35% to 18.8 billion RMB [5]. - Popular titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" continue to perform exceptionally well, with "Honor of Kings" being the only mobile game to surpass 1 billion USD in revenue in the first half of the year [7][9]. AI Integration - AI has become a focal point for Tencent, with significant investments leading to improved operational efficiencies and revenue generation [11][16]. - The advertising business saw a 20% increase in revenue to 35.8 billion RMB, attributed to AI optimizations in ad placement and production [19][24]. - AI is also enhancing gaming experiences, with applications in NPC design and gameplay mechanics [29][31]. Future Outlook - Tencent's diverse revenue streams, including gaming and AI, position it well for continued growth [31]. - The company is leveraging its gaming success to fund AI initiatives, ensuring a sustainable financial model [31].