来源：智通财经 图 2:春季~两会,A股上涨明显;港股没有明显的目历效应 E SECTION FOR ■ 上涨概率:春节->两会(2010年~2015年 100% 93.8% -93.8% 93.8% 87.5% 90% 81.39 it 80% 72.7% 184 2 5: 70% 62.5% 62.5% 56.3% 54 .! 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% el ch 02肖 717 班 极 数据来源：Wind,广发证券发展研究中心。备注：恒生科技、恒生港股通、港股通高股息采用 2016~2 图 3: 过去15年,春节后港股各指数日历效应 | 上涨概率 | 圣诞节-春节前 | 春节后-两会 | 两会期间 | 两会-3月底 | 1月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 63.6% | | 恒生指数 | 80.0% | 46.7% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 73.3% | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 73.3% | 40.0% | 46.7% | 57. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Google (GOOGL) with a current price of $322.86 and a fair value of $362.78 [4]. Core Insights - Google's cloud revenue is accelerating, and the capital expenditure guidance is aggressive, raising concerns about the return on investment (ROI) from AI infrastructure investments [5][12]. - The company reported strong revenue and net profit for Q4 2025, with revenue of $113.83 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.15%, and a year-on-year growth of 17.99% [5][13]. - The cloud segment showed significant growth, with Q4 2025 cloud revenue reaching $17.664 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [5][23]. - The advertising revenue growth is mixed, with strong performance in search ads but a slowdown in YouTube ad revenue [5][20]. - Despite concerns over capital expenditures, the financial pressure is manageable, and the returns from AI investments are promising [5][63]. Summary by Sections Q4 2025 Performance Review - Revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, with operating income at $35.934 billion and a net profit of $34.455 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.84% [5][14]. - The cloud segment's operating profit margin improved significantly to 30.1%, up from 23.7% in Q3 2025 [5][23]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $27.9 billion, a 95.1% increase year-on-year, with a projected capital expenditure of approximately $180 billion for 2026 [5][24]. Business Analysis - Google's advertising business remains a solid revenue foundation, with search ads contributing significantly to overall revenue [5][42]. - The cloud business is positioned as a new growth engine, driven by strong demand for AI services, with projected revenue growth rates of 46.1% for 2026 [5][63]. - The Other Bets segment is still in a loss phase, but investments in AI and other innovative sectors are expected to yield long-term growth [5][57]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts Google's net profit for 2026-2028 to be $139.7 billion, $163.5 billion, and $196.3 billion, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 28x, 24x, and 20x [5][66]. - The overall revenue growth is projected at 17.8% for 2026, with operating margins improving gradually [5][66].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shunwang Technology's stock price increased by 5.15% to 26.54 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.045 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 7.72%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 18.142 billion CNY [1] - Shunwang Technology, established on July 11, 2005, and listed on August 27, 2010, is based in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and its main business includes online advertising and promotion, internet value-added services, game operations, and software development related to information and network security [1] - The revenue composition of Shunwang Technology is as follows: 79.23% from online advertising and value-added services, 20.60% from gaming, and 0.18% from other businesses [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major circulating shareholders, Invesco Great Wall Fund has a fund that entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Shunwang Technology, holding 12.887 million shares, which accounts for 2.49% of circulating shares, with an estimated floating profit of approximately 16.7531 million CNY [2] - The Invesco Great Wall Quality Evergreen Mixed A Fund (010350) was established on February 9, 2021, with a latest scale of 6.211 billion CNY, showing a year-to-date loss of 1.71% and a one-year return of 48.05% [2] - The fund manager of Invesco Great Wall Quality Evergreen Mixed A is Nong Bingli, who has a cumulative tenure of 7 years and 235 days, with the best fund return during his tenure being 186.75% [3] Group 3 - Invesco Great Wall's other fund, the Invesco Great Wall ChiNext Composite Index Enhanced A (008072), held 370,100 shares of Shunwang Technology, accounting for 0.88% of the fund's net value, with an estimated floating profit of about 481,100 CNY [4] - This fund was established on May 25, 2020, with a latest scale of 457 million CNY, showing a year-to-date return of 5.26% and a one-year return of 57.97% [4] - The fund manager of Invesco Great Wall ChiNext Composite Index Enhanced A is Li Haiwei, who has a cumulative tenure of 12 years and 107 days, with the best fund return during his tenure being 221.62% [5]

摩根大通发表研报指，消费者行为正在转变，用户获取信息和消费内容的方式逐渐改变，聊天机器人正 成为搜索、推荐和任务执行的新起点。该行认为，大型互联网平台现在愿意投入真正的营销资金以加速 采用，这将机械性地提高推理量并推动Token消耗的快速增长。摩通更青睐中国AI基础设施受益，如阿 里巴巴和百度以及在线广告受益者快手作为二级赢家，因为该行认为现在判断持久的AI应用赢家与输 家还为时过早。 ...

【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 热点板块波动加剧，股指震荡运行 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2026-02-09 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经济和 | | 业绩预告披露期，板块业绩呈现分化格局。截至1月31日，共有3057家上市公司披露业绩预告。预喜的上市公司共有1638家，占 | | 企业盈 | 中性 | 比53.6%；预盈的上市公司共有1518家。分行业看，有色金属、非银金融等行业紧抓周期性机会业绩优异，硬件设备、半导体、 | | 利 | | 汽车与零配件等新动能产业表现亮眼，以钢铁为代表的传统产业利润结构持续优化。 | | | | 宽基ETF的卖出节奏近日呈现放缓趋势。此前自1月15日起，机构曾集中减持宽基指数ETF，截至1月27日累计规模超过7000亿元， | ...

2月9日，港股科技板块高开，华虹半导体涨超4%，中芯国际、百济神州涨超2%，阿里巴巴-W涨 1.81%，港股通科技ETF招商（159125）涨1.15%。 港股上周伴随全球风险资产波动，恒生科技指数回落至5400点下方，但资金整体呈"逆势"流入，据统 计，南向资金、港股科技类ETF基金一周合计净流入超670亿元。 从过往经验来看，港股通科技指数长期表现更优。自2017年初以来至2026年2月6日，港股通科技指数累 涨153.72%，同期港股通互联网指数、恒生科技指数涨0.99%、45.74%。 | 康昌 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | [区间首日] 2017-01-01 [区间尾日] 最新收盘日 | | | | | [单位] % | | | 1 987008.CNI 港股通科技 | | | 153.72 | | 2 931637.CSI | 港股通互联网 | | 0.99 | | 3 HSTECH.HI | 恒生科技 | | 45.74 | 数据来源：Wind，截至2026.2.6 ETF方面，上周挂钩港股科技类指数的ETF产品整 ...

Macro Commentary - The report indicates a slowdown in China's economic growth in Q1, but improvements in deflation are noted, with policymakers signaling a focus on stabilizing real estate, promoting consumption, and countering "involution" [2] - The US economy is expected to rebound, with rental inflation declining, offsetting a rise in commodity inflation, leading to a stable dollar liquidity environment [2] - The report anticipates only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June this year, with a potential for a spring rebound in the stock market [2] Internet Sector - In January, high beta stocks benefitting from event-driven catalysts significantly outperformed the industry, aided by improved market risk appetite and liquidity [2] - Major Chinese internet companies are increasing market spending on AI applications targeting end-users, with 2026 identified as a critical year for capturing user engagement in the AI era [2] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,560, down 1.21% for the day but up 3.63% year-to-date, while the US markets showed a rebound with the Dow Jones up 2.47% [2] - The report highlights the performance of various indices, with the Hang Seng Financial Index down 1.89% and the Hang Seng Property Index up 17.49% year-to-date [3] Investment Strategy - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with certain profit growth and those benefiting from AI [5] - Specific stocks to watch include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for their AI-driven growth potential, and NetEase and Trip.com for their stable earnings visibility [5] Software and IT Services - The report expresses optimism for the software sector, expecting revenue growth to support valuations, while cautioning about the competitive pressures from AI model vendors [6] - Recommended stocks include Palo Alto Networks in the US and Kingdee in China, which are expected to benefit from AI-related revenue growth [6] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively, driven by AI demand, with structural shortages in memory products like HBM and server DRAM [7] - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Northern Huachuang, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for computing power [7] Technology Sector - The report anticipates a continued high demand for AI computing infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, with specific recommendations for companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics [8] Consumer Sector - The Hang Seng Consumer Index has risen 8% year-to-date, driven by high elasticity in discretionary consumption sectors [9] - The report highlights the potential for increased consumer spending during the Spring Festival, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [10] Automotive Sector - January saw a slowdown in automotive sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, but a recovery is expected post-Spring Festival [11] - Recommended stocks include Geely for its expanding new energy vehicle matrix and Xpeng for its potential to turn profitable [11] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of innovative drugs going global, with a focus on clinical progress and data validation for drugs already in international markets [12] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of drug commercialization [12] Capital Goods Sector - The report notes a positive outlook for the capital goods sector, particularly in construction machinery, driven by rising metal prices and increased mining capital expenditures [21] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for construction equipment [21] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector is optimistic due to favorable policies, with the Hang Seng Property Index rising 15% year-to-date [19] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao and Greentown China, which have shown significant price increases [19]

Group 1 - The analysis from Nomura Securities indicates that rising US Treasury yields and a weak yen will compel the Kishida administration to shift its policy focus from "old Kishida trade" of fiscal expansion and a weak yen to "new Kishida trade" emphasizing structural and regulatory reforms [1][5] - Following the recent elections, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Nippon Ishin gained a majority, leading to a significant rise in the Nikkei 225 index, which surpassed 57,000 points for the first time in history [3][4] - The real estate sector led the gains in the Nikkei index, with a rise of over 7%, while companies like CyberAgent Inc. and Advantest saw substantial stock price increases of over 16% and 12%, respectively [3][4] Group 2 - Investment institutions are optimistic about sectors such as defense, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors, which are expected to benefit significantly from Kishida's increased investments in these areas [5][6] - The yen has faced significant depreciation, dropping approximately 6% against the dollar and reaching historical lows against the euro and Swiss franc, which has raised concerns about potential currency intervention [5][7] - Analysts express skepticism about Japanese government bonds, particularly long-term bonds, due to fiscal concerns, although recent yield increases have made them more attractive to some investors [5][6][7]

Core Insights - Xiaohongshu's technology team is developing an AI video editing product named OpenStoryline, currently in testing phase and may be open-sourced in the future [1][2] - This marks Xiaohongshu's first public AI video editing product, which is designed to utilize AI agents for video editing [1][2] - OpenStoryline allows users to upload a few images and edit videos through a conversational interface, similar in effect to products like Jiemeng's Xiaoyunque and SenseTime's Seko 2.0 [1][2]

全球市场综述 上周五，美国消费者信心创六个月新高，逢低买入推动美股周五反弹，标普涨近2%，创去年5月以来最 佳单日涨幅。美债收益率全线走高，10年期上行近3基点，2年期收益率涨5.54基点。美元日内跌0.3%， 但全周收涨0.56%、两周连涨。 贵金属再度上演V型反转。芝商所第六次对金银期货上调保证金后， 现货黄金开盘走低，最低触及 4655.57美元/盎司，随后持续上攻。周一亚市盘初，现货黄金重返5000美元上方，并在此后快速走高， 报5016.14美元/盎司，日内涨超1.1%。日经225指数CME期货走高，涨2.2%。 由于伊朗和美国在阿曼举行的间接谈判未能显著抑制投资者对两国爆发军事冲突的担忧，国际原油维持 区间震荡。WTI原油盘中曾两度站上64美元关口，但随后都有所回落，最终收涨0.59%，报63.53美元/ 桶；布伦特原油收涨0.74%，报67.54美元/桶。 在2月8日举行的日本众议院选举中，由自民党和日本维新会组成的执政联盟获得过半数议席。日本广播 协会发布的开票数据显示，自民党获得316个议席，日本维新会获得36个议席。在野党方面，由立宪民 主党和公明党共同组建的新党"中道改革联合"获得49个 ...