大商所 焦煤主力合约大涨5%，报1226.5元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to peak coal and oil consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, aligning with its strategic decision to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality, while transitioning to a greener economy [1] Group 1: Energy Consumption Trends - Coal and oil consumption is expected to peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with fossil energy consumption's share projected to drop below 75% by 2030 [1] - Coal consumption is anticipated to peak around 2027, with growth in power and chemical industries, while sectors like steel and construction may see a decline [1] - Oil consumption is expected to peak around 2026, with fuel oil already at its peak and chemical feedstock oil continuing to grow [1] Group 2: Energy Structure Transition - The focus will be on enhancing the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, with a gradual reduction in coal consumption while ensuring energy security [2] - The government plans to implement total coal consumption control in key regions and promote the replacement of scattered coal [2] - There will be an emphasis on the integration of oil and gas exploration with renewable energy development [2] Group 3: Development of Non-Fossil Energy - The government aims to accelerate the construction of clean energy bases, including wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, while promoting distributed energy solutions [3] - By 2030, the share of non-fossil energy consumption is targeted to reach around 25% [3] Group 4: Capacity Regulation and Industry Challenges - The peak in coal and oil consumption may lead to structural issues in the coal and refining industries, potentially causing increased uncertainty in energy supply stability [4] - There will be a need for capacity regulation to optimize structure and layout, with a focus on reducing oil production while increasing chemical output [4] - The government encourages market-driven mergers and acquisitions to phase out inefficient capacities in coal and refining sectors [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative and the ChiNext Index dropping over 2% during the session [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 116 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The space photovoltaic concept saw a significant surge, with Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit up of 20% and Guosheng Technology achieving two consecutive limit-ups [3] - The coal sector rebounded collectively, with Yanzhou Coal, China Coal Energy, and Shanxi Black Cat all reaching the daily limit up [3] - The airport and shipping sectors strengthened, with China Eastern Airlines and Huaxia Airlines also hitting the daily limit up [3] - The real estate sector was active, with Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development reaching the daily limit up [3] - The hydrogen energy concept experienced a rapid rise, with Beijing Capital and Zhiyuan New Energy hitting the daily limit up [3] Declining Sectors - The precious metals sector opened high but fell back, with Zhaojin Mining and Sichuan Gold experiencing significant declines [3] - The AI application sector saw a collective downturn, with Yili Media hitting the daily limit down [3] Closing Summary - By the end of the trading session, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.74% [3]

煤炭ETF（515220）规模超90亿元，其跟踪中证煤炭指数（399998），煤炭板块股息率较高，截至2025 年年末，跟踪指数近12个月股息率超6%，在无风险利率下行的背景下配置价值凸显。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 2月4日，煤炭板块迎来大反转，煤炭ETF（515220）大涨超7%。 广发证券指出，进入2026年，预计煤炭行业供应端增速较前期大幅下降，同时考虑到2025年需求受到制 约，2026年也有较大改善空间，预计煤价中枢有望稳步回升，行业盈利预期改善，板块估值和股息率优 势明显。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline with major indices falling, including the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, which dropped over 2% at one point [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 2900 stocks in the market saw declines, indicating a broad-based sell-off [1] Sector Performance - The space photovoltaic sector saw significant gains, with Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit up, and Guosheng Technology achieving two consecutive limit-ups [1] - The coal sector rebounded collectively, with Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Black Cat all reaching the daily limit up [1] - The airport and shipping sector also performed well, with China Eastern Airlines and Huaxia Airlines hitting the daily limit up [1] - The real estate sector was active, with Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development reaching the daily limit up [1] - The hydrogen energy concept surged, with Beijing Capital Co. and Zhiyuan New Energy hitting the daily limit up [1] - Conversely, the precious metals sector saw significant declines, with Zhaojin Mining and Sichuan Gold experiencing sharp drops [1] - The AI application sector faced a collective downturn, with Ingrity Media hitting the daily limit down [1][2] AI Sector Analysis - The AI sector faced a downturn, particularly in semiconductor and AI computing hardware stocks, with companies like Xinyisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang dropping over 5% [2] - The decline was influenced by negative news from AI company Anthropic, which caused panic among software companies potentially at risk of being replaced by AI [2] - The overall sentiment in the tech sector was negative, with major tech stocks in the US, including Nvidia, experiencing declines [2] Other Active Sectors - The oil and gas sector showed strong performance, with Qianeng Hengxin rising over 11% following an increase in international crude oil prices [3] - The liquor sector also saw gains, with Kweichow Moutai rising nearly 2%, marking a return to 1500 yuan per share [3] - The space photovoltaic sector remained active, with Zhonglai Co. and Shichuang Energy both rising over 10% [3] Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Zheshang Securities emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policy in 2026, suggesting that consumer spending will be a key variable for the stock market [4] - Huatai Securities noted that while trading sentiment has declined, there remains resilience in the funding environment, with a narrowing outflow from ETFs [4] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, highlighted the current geopolitical tensions and market volatility, suggesting that gold remains a preferred asset for capital preservation [4] Global Commercial Aerospace Insights - CITIC Securities pointed out that the global commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase focused on large-scale deployment and ecosystem construction, driven by policy and capital [5] - The competition in this sector is intensifying, with both state-owned and private enterprises racing to secure resources and establish standards [5]

新华社北京2月4日电 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出："推动 煤炭和石油消费达峰。"党的十八大以来，党中央将应对气候变化摆在国家治理更加突出的位置，作出 实现碳达峰碳中和的重大战略决策，加快能源等重点领域结构调整，推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型取 得显著成效。"十五五"时期是实现碳达峰的收官期，作为能源供应的主体，煤炭、石油等化石能源仍是 推进碳达峰的重点领域。同时，在这一时期，煤炭、石油消费呈现达峰趋势，有必要顺应这一趋势，推 动煤炭、石油等消费达峰顺利实现，为能源结构调整和节能降碳深入推进打下更好基础。 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a volatile morning session with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative, while the ChiNext Index fell over 2% at one point [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was nearly flat, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.74% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 116 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][7] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4067.67, change of -0.07% with 1037 gainers and 1229 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13997.72, change of -0.92% with 1223 gainers and 1598 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3266.99, change of -1.74% with 422 gainers and 937 losers [2] Sector Highlights - The space photovoltaic concept saw significant gains, with Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit up [2] - The coal sector rebounded collectively, with Yanzhou Coal, China Coal Energy, and Shanxi Black Cat all reaching the daily limit up [2] - The airport and shipping sector strengthened, with China Eastern Airlines and Huaxia Airlines also hitting the daily limit up [2] - The real estate sector was active, with Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development reaching the daily limit up [2] - Hydrogen energy concepts surged, with Beijing Capital and Zhiyuan New Energy hitting the daily limit up [2] Declines - Precious metals concepts opened high but fell, with Zhaojin Mining and Sichuan Gold experiencing significant declines [3] - AI application concepts collectively dropped, with Yili Media hitting the daily limit down [3] Market Sentiment - 72.95% of users are bullish on the market [4] - A total of 2946 stocks declined, while 2358 stocks increased, and 53 stocks hit the daily limit up [5]

| | | | | | | | | 白金 主要 主要 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/04 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 F03117750 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6000 | | 400 | | | (元/吨) ...

消息面上： ①供给端收缩预期强化：印尼矿业官员周二表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减产计划，该国矿商已暂 停现货煤炭出口，其产量配额较2025年降低40%-70%，直接减少全球现货供应，推动国际煤价中枢上 移。 今日A股AI板块全线回调，煤炭板块强势领涨，煤炭ETF（515220）标的指数大涨近7%，年初以来 累计上涨10.96%。该ETF已经连续4日获资金净申购，近10日合计流入8.79亿。 煤炭ETF（515220）是全市场唯一专注于煤炭行业的ETF，基金规模高达88.5亿元，紧密跟踪中证 煤炭指数，覆盖动力煤、焦煤等全产业链，前十大重仓股聚焦行业龙头，可实现行业一键布局，是煤炭 行业标准化配置的核心工具，大幅降低投资门槛与研究成本。 中泰证券指出，一方面，煤炭板块机构持仓徘徊在低位，筹码结构健康；另一方面，预核增产能退 出预期有望落地，叠加迎峰度冬旺季需求释放，后市煤价震荡偏强运行。 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： new ...

2月4日，煤炭股爆发，兖矿能源、中煤能源、陕西黑猫、美锦能源、晋控煤业、云煤能源涨停，潞安环能、山 西焦化、宝泰隆、山煤国际、新集能源、大有能源等大涨。煤炭ETF一度大涨超7%，并带领红利指数狂拉超 2%。那么，究竟发生了什么？ | ■ 煤炭(32) | | . | 张幅%。 | 现价 | 量比 | 涨速% | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 究矿能源 | R | 10.01 | 15.27 | 5.09 | 0.00 | 1532.72亿 | | 2 | 中煤能源 | R | 10.00 | 14.08 | 3.26 | 0.00 | 1866.82亿 | | 3 | 陕西崇猫 | R | 10.00 | 4.62 | 1.84 | 0.00 | 94.36亿 | | 4 | 美锦能源 | R | 10.00 | 5.17 | 3.73 | 0.00 | 227.66亿 | | 5 | 昌控煤业 | R | 9.99 | 15.86 | 4.41 | 0.00 | 265.45亿 | | 6 | 云煤能源 | | 9 ...