Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant demand surge, particularly in the electrolyte sector, driven by strategic partnerships and production expansions among key players [2][5]. Group 1: Strategic Partnerships - Haike Xinyuan signed a strategic cooperation and raw material supply agreement with Kunlun New Materials, committing to purchase approximately 596,200 tons of electrolyte solvent from 2026 to 2028 [2]. - Prior to this, Haike Xinyuan entered into a strategic procurement cooperation agreement with Hefei Qianrui, agreeing to supply 200,000 tons of lithium-ion battery electrolyte solvents and additives [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent contracts secured by Haike Xinyuan, totaling 600,000 tons, indicate a cyclical turning point in the lithium battery industry, with electrolyte products entering a phase of explosive demand [5]. - Kunlun New Materials is expanding its production capacity across multiple locations, including Huzhou (140,000 tons), Yibin (240,000 tons), and Yichang (200,000 tons), to meet increasing customer demands [5]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Major companies like Tianqi Materials are also experiencing a surge in orders, with contracts signed for a total of 870,000 tons of electrolyte products with leading firms such as Guoxuan High-Tech and Zhongxin Innovation [6]. - The current growth cycle is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading companies, with a focus on solid-state battery technology and new materials becoming a key area for growth [6].

Industry Supply and Demand and Capacity Status - The operating rate is expected to increase significantly from approximately 50% before August 2025 to 80% after, driven by surging energy storage demand, with leading companies reaching 100%-110% by November 2025 [5] - The nominal industry capacity is projected to be around 5.3-5.5 million tons by the end of 2025, but the actual effective capacity is only about 4 million tons due to 20% being outdated capacity [5] - Actual shipments are estimated at 2.5 million tons in 2024, with a forecast to exceed 4 million tons in 2025, driven by both power and energy storage [5] - New capacity additions are expected to be at least 1 million tons annually from 2026 to 2027 [5] - New production lines have significant advantages in energy consumption, with old lines consuming about 4500 kWh/ton compared to less than 3000 kWh/ton for new lines [5] Cost and Price Analysis - The cost of iron phosphate has risen from 9,000 CNY/ton to 10,000 CNY/ton for non-resource companies, while resource companies can maintain costs between 8,000-9,000 CNY/ton [3] - The price of iron phosphate lithium is expected to rise to 11,000-12,000 CNY/ton by 2026, with leading companies potentially achieving profits of 500-1,500 CNY/ton [5] - The price of phosphoric acid has increased from 6,300-6,500 CNY/ton to 6,800-7,000 CNY/ton, and ferrous sulfate has risen from 200-260 CNY/ton to 300 CNY/ton [5] - Current costs are approximately 36,000 CNY/ton, with lithium carbonate at 80,000 CNY/ton, and processing fees between 15,000-17,500 CNY/ton [5] - Price increases have been cumulative since the second quarter of 2025, ranging from 1,000-3,000 CNY/ton, with leading companies nearing breakeven and some starting to profit [5] Key Players and Market Dynamics - Major manufacturers are balancing performance and cost in their procurement of battery cells [6] - BYD is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia [6] - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market that exceeds that of the power market [6]

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic momentum faces challenges in the first half of 2026 due to US-China trade tensions, tariff pressures, and weak demand [4] - Economic recovery is expected in the second half of 2026 with monetary and fiscal policy easing, such as the US's "dual easing" and fiscal stimulus in Europe and Japan [4] - Major risks include asynchronous economic and policy cycles across countries, potentially leading to asset price volatility [4] Performance of Major Economies - The US economy relies on AI-related sectors, but short-term productivity gains from AI are limited; tariffs have raised inflation (effective tariff rate at 12.6%), suppressing consumption and investment [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2026 (to 3.25%-3.5%), with gradual improvement in the labor market as the economy rebounds [4] - Europe has inflation nearing the 2% target with neutral monetary policy, while Japan continues normalizing its monetary policy, with rates potentially rising to 1.25% by the end of 2026 [4] Asset Performance - US Treasury yields may dip in the short term but could rise again due to debt pressures; the dollar remains stable, and US stocks (S&P 500 expected to reach 7500 points) and European stocks have upside potential [4] China Economic Outlook Growth Momentum - China's GDP growth is projected at around 5% for 2025, but significant year-on-year pressure is expected in Q4; 2026 GDP is forecasted to decline to 4.5% due to reduced export contributions and slight deceleration in consumption [4] - The outlook for 2027 may improve slightly due to export recovery and narrowing declines in real estate [4] Key Sector Analysis - Real Estate: The down cycle continues with inventory-sales ratios at 25-30 months (normal is 15 months), leading to negative wealth effects from falling prices; policies should focus on lowering mortgage rates, accelerating inventory reduction, and promoting household registration reforms [4] - Consumption: 2025 H1 may see a boost from "trade-in" subsidies, but 2026 faces pressures from moderate income growth and negative wealth effects from housing prices; social security reforms are needed to enhance consumer confidence [4] - Investment: Manufacturing and infrastructure investments may have overshot in H2 2025; a slight recovery is expected in 2026, but growth will remain in low single digits [4] - Exports: 2025 exports may grow by 5.4%, but exports to the US could drop by 26%; 2026 may see a reversal in US exports while non-US market growth slows [4] Inflation and Exchange Rates - Inflation: Deflationary pressures are easing, with CPI expected to rise from 0% to 0.4% in 2026, and PPI narrowing from -2.7% to below -1% [4] - Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to be strong in the short term, with overall stability and two-way fluctuations anticipated in 2026 [4] Policy Expectations - Monetary Policy: A potential 20 basis point rate cut in 2026 (to 1.2%), with limited future space due to the need to balance bank interest margins [4] - Fiscal Policy: Broad fiscal impulse around 1 percentage point, focusing on special bonds and policy financial tools [4] - Credit: Social financing growth may decline from 8.4% to 8%, with macro leverage continuing to rise [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% closing at 4000.14 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.36% at 13240.62 points, the Sci-Tech 50 down 0.58% at 1379.45 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.39% at 3122.03 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 1756 stocks that rose and 3561 that fell, with a total market turnover of 19450 billion yuan, a decrease of 485 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included household appliances (up 1.22%), comprehensive (up 1.05%), textile and apparel (up 0.87%), petroleum and petrochemicals (up 0.84%), and pharmaceutical and biological (up 0.61%) [1] - The leading decliners were in the sectors of electric equipment (down 2.10%), machinery equipment (down 1.23%), computers (down 1.04%), national defense and military industry (down 0.87%), and automobiles (down 0.81%) [1] Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors with the highest gains included insurance selection, lithium battery electrolyte, blood products, stem cells, SPD, in vitro diagnostics, genetic testing, white household appliances selection, aluminum industry, three-child policy, industrial metals selection, synthetic biology, satellite internet, weight loss drugs, and central enterprise banks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.07%, while defensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals and oil & gas showed strength amidst a broader market downturn [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.95 trillion, a decrease of 48.6 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market experienced declines, indicating a broad market weakness [1] Sector Analysis - Defensive sectors collectively performed well, with the oil and gas sector seeing significant gains, leading to stocks like PetroChina and Zhenhua Oil reaching their daily limit [1] - The pharmaceutical sector continued to rise, particularly in cell immunotherapy, with stocks such as Kaineng Health and Jimin Health hitting their daily limit [1] - The banking sector showed strong performance, with Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China both reaching historical highs [1] - The consumer sector was selectively active, with stocks like Sanyuan and Zhongrui achieving three consecutive trading limit increases, and Dongbai Group seeing four limit increases in six days [1] - The lithium battery sector experienced a late rally, with Tianji shares achieving three limit increases in four days [1] Declining Sectors - The superhard materials sector faced a collective decline, with World falling over 10% [1] - Sectors such as insurance, pharmaceuticals, and oil & gas saw the largest gains, while sectors like cultivated diamonds, photovoltaics, and controllable nuclear fusion experienced the largest declines [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4000.14 points, down 0.07%, and total trading volume at 840.5 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62 points, down 0.36%, with a trading volume of 1104.6 billion yuan, while the ChiNext Index closed at 3122.03 points, down 0.39%, with a trading volume of 492.9 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 2 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The insurance, mining, pharmaceutical retail, medical devices, and beauty care sectors showed the highest gains, while sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, non-metallic materials, wind power equipment, power equipment, grid equipment, and electronic chemicals experienced the largest declines [1] - The oil and gas sector saw significant gains, with companies like PetroChina and Zhenhua Oil reaching their daily limit [2] - The pharmaceutical sector continued to rise, led by cell immunotherapy concepts, with stocks like Kaineng Health and Jimin Health hitting their daily limit [2] Individual Stock Movement - Overall, more stocks declined than rose, with over 1700 stocks increasing in value and nearly 80 stocks hitting their daily limit [3] Institutional Insights - According to Jifeng Investment Advisory, the market showed signs of recovery, particularly in the oil and gas extraction sector, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizing the need for stability in the capital market [4] - Morgan Stanley believes that the long-term profitability of A-share listed companies will steadily improve, driven by China's manufacturing advantages [4] - CITIC Securities highlights three main investment themes: the pricing power of Chinese manufacturing, the deepening of enterprises going abroad, and the continuation of the technology market [5] Regulatory Developments - The Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Li Ming, stated the importance of enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market and preventing extreme market fluctuations [6] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's International Investor Conference emphasized the need for comprehensive reforms in investment and financing to support the stable operation of the capital market [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.07% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.36% [3][4] - The total trading volume in the two markets was 1.95 trillion, a decrease of 486 billion compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors showed strength, particularly the oil and gas sector, with companies like Shihua Oil and Zhun Oil both hitting the daily limit [1] - The pharmaceutical sector continued to rise, led by cell immunotherapy concepts, with stocks like Kaineng Health and Jimin Health reaching the daily limit [1] - The banking sector performed strongly, with Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China both reaching historical highs [1] - The consumer sector was active in parts, with companies like Sanyuan and Zhongrui achieving three consecutive limits, and Dongbai Group hitting four limits in six days [1] - The lithium battery sector saw a late rally, with Tianji shares achieving three limits in four days [1] - In contrast, the superhard materials sector experienced significant declines, with World falling over 10% [1][2] Market Statistics - A total of 3,563 stocks declined, while 1,758 stocks rose, and 127 remained unchanged [5] - There were 77 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 10 stocks hitting the daily limit down [5]

Market Overview - The market showed signs of recovery after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07% and the ChiNext Index briefly turning positive at the close [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.95 trillion, a decrease of 486 billion compared to the previous trading day [5] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07% with 716 gainers and 1553 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% with 934 gainers and 1901 losers [2] - ChiNext Index closed at 3122.03, down 0.39% with 448 gainers and 923 losers [2] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors showed strength, with oil and gas concepts surging, leading to stocks like PetroChina and Zhenhua Oil hitting the daily limit [2] - The pharmaceutical sector continued to rise, particularly in cell immunotherapy, with stocks like Kaineng Health and Jimin Health also hitting the daily limit [2] - The banking sector performed strongly, with Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reaching historical highs [2] - Consumer stocks were active, with companies like Sanyuan and Zhongrui achieving consecutive gains [2] - The lithium battery sector saw a late rally, with Tianji shares performing well [2] - In contrast, superhard material stocks experienced significant declines, with World falling over 10% [2][3] Market Sentiment - Overall, more than 3500 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad-based sell-off [2] - The market had a high limit-up rate of 75%, with 58 stocks hitting the limit and 19 stocks touching the limit-down [6]

Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales have seen an expanded decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.4% in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities as of November 9 [7] - In October 2025, nationwide retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the high base effect from the second half of 2024 and tightening of trade-in policies [8] - The price of live pigs has turned downward, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.1%, while domestic staple grain prices continue to rise [10] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to maintain high prosperity, with the average spot price of DRAM memory reaching $3.336, up 2.2% week-on-week, driven by AI infrastructure demand [20] - Semiconductor sales in China reached $18.69 billion in September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [22] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant growth, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 13.0% week-on-week as of November 7 [45] Upstream Resources - Coal prices have surged, with the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port reaching 817 yuan per ton, up 6.1% week-on-week, marking a new high for the year [46] - International metal prices have declined, with SHFE copper and aluminum prices at 85,900 yuan and 21,600 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.2% and an increase of 1.5% [50] Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger demand has decreased on a month-on-month basis, with subway passenger volume down 1.9% week-on-week but up 3.4% year-on-year [59] - Freight logistics demand has also declined, with nationwide highway truck traffic down 2.1% week-on-week, while railway freight volume increased by 3.9% [62] - Port throughput has shown fluctuations, with container throughput at 6.809 million TEUs, up 1.4% week-on-week [65]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 11, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 1.38% to 86,540 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased, with the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rising 1,550 yuan/ton to 82,300 yuan/ton, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate rising 1,550 yuan/ton to 80,100 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 608 tons to 28,099 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 454 tons to 21,534 tons. In November, the expected production of lithium carbonate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 92,080 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in November increased by 1% to 85,000 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4% to 410,000 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 3,406 tons to 123,953 tons [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, demand in November continued to increase month-on-month, and social inventory has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks. However, there are significant differences in news factors, and the rhythm of project resumption is unknown. Short-term market sentiment may fade, and attention should be paid to actual project resumption time and the first-quarter off - season in the power sector [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 86,540 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 84,620 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. Lithium ore prices generally increased, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 122,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,250 yuan/ton to -6,370 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [8][9]. - **3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12]. - **3.3 Price Differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. - **3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [24][25][26]. - **3.5 Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][33][34]. - **3.6 Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from March to November 2025 [36][37][38]. - **3.7 Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [40][41].