天风证券（601162）指出，2025Q1主动型基金前十大军工股持有流入总市值绝对值的前十中，军工电 子板块标的占80%。过去三年军工电子板块较其他军工子板块超跌较多，在长尾效应下周期反弹锐度或 将凸显，板块景气度修复时或成为先选，军工电子持仓占比有望持续提升。2025Q1航空发动机产业相 关标的在主动型基金前十大军工股持有流出总市值占公司总市值前十中占比30%，我们认为，航发产业 或受制于2025年周期相对底部的影响，伴随国产商发持续加速，新型号装备型号持续成熟，航发子板块 有望企稳修复。(第一财经) ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 国防军工 证券研究报告 2025 年 04 月 29 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 总体视角： 2025 年一季度主动+被动型基金对军工板块持股占比超配比例逐步修复，超配比例达-0.66%，相较于 24Q4 超配比例提升 0.04%。目前已有连续 7 个季度板块配比处于标配比例之下，我们认为，25 年 Q1 板块配比有所修复或意味着基本面修复逐步出现，配比有望出现渐进式反弹，25 年 Q2 超配比 例有望进一步提升，且仍存后续较大增长空间。 主动配置总量视角： 2025 年一季度主动型基金军工板块持股占比为 2.35%，超配比例为-0.21%，相较于 24Q4 超配比例提 升 0.04%，主动基金持仓超配比率逆转 2024Q4 的下降趋势，有望进入持续增长区间。我们认为，2025 年为"十四五"收官、"十五五"开端之年，军工板块景气度有望持续修复，同时地缘政治复杂程度 加深，系统性避险属性不断加强，军工行业有望进入新地缘变化下新估值阶段，主动型基金对军工 板块超配比例有望不断修复。 ...

原标题：坚守三线，铸造战机"中国心" "从歼7到歼8，温俊峰院士把20年最美青春献给了我国航空发动机研制事业，用一生凝成了爱党爱 国的精神丰碑。"中国航发贵州红林航空动力控制科技有限公司党委副书记王新明追思道。 4月23日，中国工程院院士、航空发动机设计专家温俊峰因病医治无效，在山东烟台逝世，享年97 岁。 温俊峰1929年4月20日出生在绥远省（今内蒙古自治区）五原县。童年亲历战火，他从小立志为祖 国强盛而奋斗。1949年，他以优异的成绩考入北洋大学采矿系，半年后进入清华大学航空系。 求学期间，温俊峰得知志愿军入朝作战，空军缺少飞机，暗下决心要学好知识建设强大空军。毕业 后，他留校任教，参与了北京航空航天大学初建，领导筹建了我国第一个航空发动机薄壳强度课题研究 组，先后完成《三层圆柱壳超出弹性极限之稳定性》《喷气发动机壳体零件强度计算》《冲压发动机构 造》等论著。 1967年，国家作出"三线建设"的战略决策，在贵州建设生产歼击机和教练机的三线航空基地。"我 没多想，就申请到贵州工作，因为在那里可以更好地释放我的光和热。"温俊峰生前这样提起自己人生 中的重要选择。 初到贵州，温俊峰白天和众多建设者一起忙设计， ...

Industry Overview - The aviation engine industry is crucial for national economy and security, serving as the power source for various aircraft and representing a country's comprehensive strength [1] - Aviation engines can be categorized into several types based on thrust generation principles and oxidizer sources, including piston engines, rocket engines, ramjet engines, and turbine engines [1] Industry Chain Analysis - The aviation engine industry chain includes research and design, manufacturing (raw materials, components, complete machine manufacturing), operation, and maintenance [3] - China has established a complete research and production system for aviation engines, with key participants including universities and research institutes [4] Development History - The Chinese aviation engine industry has evolved from imitation to independent research and development, achieving significant self-innovation capabilities supported by national policies [5][8] Policy Background - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating the research and development of advanced aviation engine materials and technologies, promoting the development of civil large bypass ratio turbofan engines [10] Current Market Status - The aviation engine industry has vast market potential, with a global annual output of over 14,000 units and an estimated annual value of around $70 billion [12] - The Chinese commercial aviation engine market is expected to experience explosive growth, with projected deliveries reaching 19,000 units and a market value exceeding $300 billion over the next 20 years [12] Demand Trends - Both military and civil aviation sectors in China are witnessing an upward trend in aircraft numbers, with the military fleet expected to reach 3,309 aircraft by the end of 2024 [14] - The number of civil passenger and cargo aircraft in China has also been increasing, with approximately 4,400 aircraft expected in 2024 [15] Competitive Landscape - The aviation engine market is primarily dominated by foreign manufacturers, with significant gaps in capabilities compared to the US, Russia, and other military powers [17][19] - The global commercial aviation engine market is largely controlled by a few companies, with CFM International and Pratt & Whitney holding substantial market shares [20] Future Development Trends - The Chinese aviation engine manufacturing industry is expected to focus on independent innovation, quality improvement, international cooperation, and sustainable development [24]

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 以上是 浑瑾资本李岳 在 4月14日的一场线上路演中分享的最新观点。 在 AI大趋势如火如荼的当下，李岳从消费中看到了更多的机会。 "投资这件事的终极意义在于战胜货币供应量，全球货币供应量是以每年8%～10%的速度在增长，只有全球最稀缺的优质资产才能穿越周期。" "打个比方，美国人是用龙虾、鲍鱼才能做出了米其林，中国人用小米粥就熬出了米其林。所以，出现了 科技平权。 " " 以往消费刚需聚焦于衣食住行，未来则涌现出三大新刚需： IP消费、悦己消费以及国产平替。" 成立浑瑾之前， 2009年至2011年 李岳 曾在华夏基金担任消费行业分析师和国际业务部研究副主管 ， 2011年加入高瓴，于2020年 离任，离开 时是高 瓴二级市场大消费组合的负责人，主导超过百亿美元基金的大消费板块投资工作。 在过往十几年的投资生涯中， 李岳 专注于大消费领域，以及制造业等投研工作。 在本次交流会中，通过李岳对于大量公司案例的分析，不难看出他对这些领域的生意非常了解。 尤其是对于新消费中 IP消费的理解，李岳并非简单探讨了趋势，而是从本质出发，理解 ...

Industry Overview - The low-altitude economy supply chain in China has formed a comprehensive development pattern characterized by "upstream independent breakthroughs, midstream collaborative tackling, and downstream standard leadership" with eVTOL and drone manufacturing at its core [2][19] - The domestic market for eVTOL is projected to have a potential demand of 24000 units for tourism and 85000 units for commuting, leading to a total market size exceeding 250 billion [2][45][46] - The eVTOL power system is a critical component of the low-altitude economy, accounting for approximately 40% of the total cost structure of eVTOLs [2][48] Technological Trends - eVTOL technology is diversifying with three main configurations: multirotor, compound wing, and tilt-rotor, each offering unique advantages for different applications [34][35] - The shift towards electric propulsion systems is evident, with a focus on high energy density and low emissions, making them the preferred choice for future urban air mobility [54][55] Market Dynamics - The global low-altitude economy market is expected to grow from approximately 2.08 trillion yuan in 2023 to 2.32 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [23] - In China, the low-altitude economy market is projected to reach 859.2 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.8% [23][27] Company Insights - EHang Intelligent (EH.O) has become the first company in China to obtain all four necessary certifications for eVTOL, indicating a significant step towards commercialization [6][51] - Companies like EHang and others are actively collaborating with electric motor manufacturers to enhance their eVTOL offerings, with substantial orders already in place [52] Policy Support - The development of the low-altitude economy has been elevated to a national strategy, with various government departments providing comprehensive support through policies aimed at infrastructure, regulations, and industry standards [14][17] - By 2025, over 30 provinces and cities in China are expected to include low-altitude economy initiatives in their government work reports, promoting infrastructure development and industry standards [14][18]

Group 1 - The company will hold an annual performance briefing on April 25, 2025, from 14:30 to 17:00 [2][3] - The meeting will be conducted in a hybrid format, combining video interaction and on-site communication, with on-site interaction scheduled from 14:30 to 16:00 and online interaction from 16:00 to 17:00 [3] - Key personnel attending the meeting will include the company's chairman or general manager, board secretary, independent directors, and relevant department staff [3] Group 2 - Investors can submit questions for the briefing from April 17, 2025, to April 24, 2025, by visiting the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center website [4] - The company will address commonly asked questions during the performance briefing [4] - After the briefing, investors can access the meeting's details and main content through the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 47.88 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.48%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 39.48% to 860 million [6][12]. - The fourth quarter saw a significant revenue increase of 25.81% year-on-year, but the net profit dropped by 65.65% compared to the same quarter last year [6][12]. - The company is actively expanding its civilian product business, focusing on low-altitude, general aviation, and commercial aviation engines, which are expected to be key growth areas in the future [12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 47.88 billion, with a 10.03% increase in the aviation engine and derivative products segment, while the foreign trade export business grew by 6.45% [12]. - The overall gross profit margin for the year was 10.06%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable drop in the fourth quarter gross margin to 7.72% [12]. Business Segments - The company’s subsidiaries showed varied performance, with the main subsidiary achieving a revenue of 16.03 billion (up 24% year-on-year) and another subsidiary reaching 27.37 billion (up 4% year-on-year) [12]. - The company is a key supplier of core components for domestic commercial aircraft engines and is expanding into the low-altitude economy and general aviation markets [12]. Future Outlook - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 970 million, 1.63 billion, and 2.30 billion respectively, with growth rates of 12%, 69%, and 41% [12]. - The company is preparing for a new round of demand release by actively laying out new production capacities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6][8] Core Views - The company achieved a record high in both revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue of 5.481 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.95%, and a net profit of 750 million yuan, up 3.26% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is transitioning between old and new product models, facing challenges as some long-term production models reach peak output while new products are gradually ramping up [6][7] - The company aims for a revenue target of 5.3 billion yuan for 2025, focusing on the successful commercialization of new aviation and drone power control products [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.481 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 28.11%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points year-on-year [6][9] - The company's subsidiaries also showed stable performance, with revenue increases in several units, while one unit experienced a decline [7] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 756 million, 805 million, and 881 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 0.75%, 6.46%, and 9.42% [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its long-term development potential [5][3]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 47.88 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 39.5% to 860 million yuan due to increased R&D expenses and unanticipated stock disposals [1][3]. - The transition period between old and new models is putting pressure on the company's performance, with expectations for 2025 showing a slight decline in revenue and net profit [3][4]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment significantly, with total R&D expenses reaching 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.1%, to support future product development [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, but the net profit dropped by 65.7% to 134 million yuan [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 10.1%, and the net profit margin fell by 1.4 percentage points to 2.1% [1][4]. - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 47.66 billion yuan in 2025, which is nearly flat compared to 2024, with a projected net profit of 5.92 billion yuan, down 31.2% year-on-year [3][4]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from aviation products and derivatives grew by 10.0% to 44.99 billion yuan, while the gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 9.5% [2]. - The foreign trade export revenue increased by 6.5% to 2.07 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 5.3 percentage points to 19.7% [2]. - Non-aviation products and other revenues saw a significant decline of 24.9% to 200 million yuan, with a gross margin decrease of 1.3 percentage points to 18.4% [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 5.97 billion yuan, 10.66 billion yuan, and 15.72 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 164x, 92x, and 62x [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the aviation engine industry and its comprehensive research and development capabilities across the entire spectrum of aviation engines [3].