Core Insights - Northern Copper announced its financial results for the first half of 2025, reporting a revenue of 12,810,895,390.34 yuan, which represents a year-on-year growth of 2.81% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 476,875,539.40 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.99% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential upward movement in Q4 due to recovering demand from the power grid and air conditioning sectors, despite current inventory pressures [4][5]. Macro Environment - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, leading to a weaker US dollar this week [4]. Supply and Demand - The inventory arbitrage logic between the US and non-US regions has ended, with previously stored inventory in the US becoming more apparent, leading to short-term accumulation pressure on LME and COMEX [4]. - Domestic cable operating rates have rebounded but remain significantly lower than the same period last year, with air conditioning production expected to decline year-on-year from August to October [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 11.5% [5]. - As of August 8, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 620,000 tons, up 18.8% from the previous week [5]. Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 21 CNY/ton this week [6]. - China's refined copper production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [6]. Smelting - The TC spot price was -38 USD/ton, reflecting a 4 USD/ton increase from the previous week, but still at a low level not seen since September 2007 [7]. - China's electrolytic copper production in July was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [7]. Demand - Cable operating rates increased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with cable demand accounting for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [8]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year for the months of August to October, with refrigerator production also showing a downward trend [8]. Futures Market - The open interest for SHFE copper contracts decreased by 4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 45% [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to continue rising in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights that the LME and COMEX copper inventories are facing upward pressure, while domestic cable production rates have increased but remain significantly lower than the previous year [1][2]. - The report suggests that the demand for copper will rebound in Q4 2025, driven by the recovery in electric grid and air conditioning needs [1]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 11.5% [2]. - As of August 8, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 620,000 tons, up 18.8% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 472,000 tons as of August 4, 2025, reflecting a 5.0% increase [2]. Supply - The TC spot price increased by $4 per ton week-on-week, currently at -$37.98 per ton, remaining at historically low levels [3][63]. - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [3][66]. - The report notes a decrease in the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper, indicating potential tightening in scrap supply [2][56]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with the current rate at 69.89% [3][75]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year, with expected reductions of 2.8%, 12.7%, and 12.1% for August, September, and October respectively [3][94]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for copper in the power sector remains strong, supported by ongoing investments in power infrastructure [75][82]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 45% [4][32]. - As of August 8, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 157,000 lots, reflecting a 4.1% decrease from the previous week [4][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

资料显示，徐东阳历任白银公司财务审计部综合成本科副科长、财务部成本科副科长，白银有色财务部 成本科科长、财务部副主任，白银徐东阳有色产业集团有限责任公司财务总监，白银有色财务部主任。 现任白银有色财务总监。 出生于1970年的徐东阳，2024年已55岁，自2022年10月起担任财务总监。其2024年薪酬为16.9万元，较 A股CFO平均年薪81.48万元低64.58万元，差距显著。在84家大专CFO且公司营收超50亿或市值超100亿 的可比公司中，这一薪酬处于下游，排名第84位。 薪酬变动更显特殊：2024年较2023年的42.31万元减少25.41万元，降薪幅度达60.06%，成为年度薪酬缩 水最明显的CFO之一。 尽管学历、薪酬与行业均值存在差距，且遭遇大幅降薪，但他仍主导着这家千亿营收企业的财务体系， 其职业生涯轨迹为研究资本市场人才评价体系提供了独特样本。 专题：专题|2024年度A股CFO数据报告：美的集团钟铮年薪946万，比亚迪周亚琳896万 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作为上市公司核心管理层关键成员，财务总监CFO的地位与作用至关重要。新浪财经《20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, with expectations of a potential rebound in Q4 due to increased demand from the power grid and air conditioning sectors as trade conflicts ease [3]. Macroeconomic Factors - As of August 1, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 78,400 CNY/ton, down 1.07% from July 25, while LME copper closed at 9,633 USD/ton, down 1.66% [3]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July fell short of expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which has weakened the dollar [3]. Supply and Demand - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1, excluding electrolytic copper, leading to short-term inventory pressure on LME [3]. - Domestic cable operating rates are lower than the same period last year, and air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year from August to October [3]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.5% and LME copper inventory rose by 11.2% [4]. - As of August 1, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 522,000 tons, down 7.0% from the previous week [4]. Raw Material Prices - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 35 CNY/ton this week [5]. - In May 2025, China's refined copper output was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [5]. Smelting Production - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [6][7]. Demand Trends - Cable operating rates decreased by 3.5 percentage points, with cable production accounting for 31% of domestic copper demand [8]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline by 12% year-on-year from August to October [8]. Futures Market - As of August 1, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 5% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 6% [9].

Group 1: Steel Industry - In July, the PMI for new export orders was reported at 47.10% [4] - The BCI for small and medium enterprises financing environment index in July 2025 was 46.09, a month-on-month decrease of 6.16% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in June 2025 was -3.7 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] Group 2: Non-ferrous Metals - In July, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached a six-year low compared to the same period last year [4] - The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to lower domestic cable operating rates and a decrease in air conditioning production from August to October [4] - However, tight supply from mines and scrap copper, along with a rebound in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, may lead to an increase in copper prices [4] Group 3: Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - The political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of promoting a unified national market and optimizing market competition [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, impacting the stock prices of photovoltaic-related companies [4] - Key areas to watch include price-sensitive segments such as silicon materials, glass, and BC batteries [4] Group 4: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - The public health emergency response level III was activated in Foshan due to the outbreak of Chikungunya fever, with over 6,000 confirmed cases reported by July 31 [5] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - New An Co., Ltd. has established a new subsidiary focused on synthetic materials, indicating a strengthened global development strategy [6] - China Shenhua announced plans to acquire assets from the State Energy Group, including coal and related energy assets [6] - TAL Education Group reported a revenue of $575 million for FY26Q1, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, with net profit significantly exceeding expectations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream off - season characteristics are obvious, and the non - ferrous metals sector has corrected. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and each metal has its own influencing factors and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is 98.7, with a daily decline of 1.36%, a weekly increase of 1.04%, and an annual decline of 9.03%; industrial silicon is 8500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.97%, a weekly decline of 12.60%, and an annual decline of 22.62% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The overall content of the Politburo meeting is less than the market's optimistic expectations; the result of the Sino - US economic and trade talks is in line with expectations, but the US side's statement is hawkish; China's July manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the Fed's statement is hawkish, suppressing the expectation of a September interest rate cut; the US July non - farm data is lower than expected, and the ISM manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the US has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper [8]. - **Raw Material End**: Slightly bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has increased slightly, and the port inventory of domestic copper ore has decreased [8]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The loss of smelters using spot copper ore has narrowed, and the profit of smelters using long - term contract copper ore has increased. China's copper smelter production in July has further increased [8]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The downstream demand has improved slightly, but the off - season characteristics are obvious [8]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The copper inventories at home and abroad have increased simultaneously [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The market is worried about the US economic recession, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, so the copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: May be under pressure to decline in the short term; Arbitrage: None [8]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The Sino - US tariff suspension will be extended for 90 days; the US June core PCE price index has increased significantly; China's July official manufacturing PMI has declined; Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper; the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, but two voting members support a rate cut [88]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remains the same as last week, and the import processing fee index has been slightly increased. The smelters have a strong willingness to raise the processing fee [88]. - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The zinc ingot production in July reached a new high in the past five years, and the production in August is expected to increase [88]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal project construction is affected by natural disasters, but the galvanizing sector is affected by positive news. There is a rumor that galvanizing manufacturers around Beijing will stop production during the September military parade, which needs further attention [88]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and it may continue to increase before the terminal demand enters the peak season [88]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The zinc fundamentals are under strong pressure, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Long copper and short zinc [88]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The US July non - farm data has unexpectedly declined, and the previous two months' data has been significantly revised down; the US manufacturing PMI is weaker than expected; the Sino - US trade negotiation is slightly less than expected [200][202]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable, and the benchmark price is rising. The demand for nickel ore procurement has weakened, and the domestic port inventory has increased seasonally [200][202]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The pure nickel production remains high; some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have reduced production due to cost inversion, but the demand has also weakened; the MHP coefficient is stable, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate may increase [200]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel price has corrected, the steel mill profit has been repaired, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the overseas demand is still restricted. The new energy production and sales remain high, and the precursor enterprises' raw material inventory is relatively sufficient [200]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The overall inventory has increased. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory is 20.9 tons, an increase of 2.53%; the SHFE nickel inventory is 2.57 tons, an increase of 1.17% [200]. - **Investment View**: Weakly volatile. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the nickel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with increased volatility. In the long term, there is still pressure of over - supply of primary nickel [200]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see [200].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in copper production for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 40.3% to 57,416 tonnes, primarily driven by increased output from Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos [1][2] - The C1 cash cost for copper in Q2 2025 was reported at $2.45 per pound, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year, attributed to higher production volumes and lower production costs [2] - The average realized copper price in Q2 2025 was $4.39 per pound, reflecting a 3.1% decline year-on-year but a 0.7% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] Production and Operational Performance - Q2 2025 copper sales reached 53,977 tonnes, marking a 35.8% increase year-on-year, although it fell short of production by approximately 1,800 tonnes due to sales scheduling at Mantos Blancos [1] - The report indicates that the total sulphide production for Q2 2025 was 47,086 tonnes, compared to 30,374 tonnes in Q2 2024, showcasing a robust operational performance [10] - The report also details the production costs for various sites, with Mantoverde's C1 cash cost at $1.51 per pound and Mantos Blancos at $1.87 per pound [10] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $543.2 million for Q2 2025, a 38.2% increase year-on-year [3][13] - Net income attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was $30 million, a 9.1% increase compared to the previous year, recovering from a loss of $1.2 million in Q1 2025 [3][13] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $215.6 million, reflecting a 75.1% increase year-on-year, driven by higher sulphide production [3][13] Debt and Liquidity - As of March 31, 2025, net debt stood at $788.1 million, slightly up from $742 million at the end of 2024, primarily due to working capital changes [4][8] - By June 30, 2025, net debt decreased to $691.9 million, indicating improved liquidity and financial management [8] 2025 Guidance - The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance for total copper production between 220,000 to 250,000 tonnes, with C1 cash costs projected between $2.20 to $2.50 per pound [9] - Capital expenditures are expected to be $315 million, with exploration spending set at $25 million [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - The current 50% tariff does not cover refined copper, causing the Comex premium to drop significantly. If the inventory of over 250,000 tons in Comex flows back to the market, it may impact copper prices again. Therefore, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended. However, due to the price - holding sentiment of domestic holders, the possibility of a continuous and significant decline in copper prices is relatively small [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,180 yuan/ton and closed at 78,010 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a tightening trend at the end of the month. The premium of 1 electrolytic copper to the 2508 contract was 140 - 220 yuan/ton, with an average of 180 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 78,460 - 78,670 yuan/ton. It is expected that holders will maintain a price - holding strategy on August 1, and the actual trading activity is expected to improve [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump signed an executive order to modify the reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries. The tariff on Canada will be increased from 25% to 35% starting August 1, 2025. Goods transshipped to avoid the 35% tariff will be subject to a 40% transshipment tariff. The US Treasury Secretary expects to announce Fed nominations by the end of the year, and there will be two vacancies on the Fed Board. China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3] - **Mine End**: The copper production of Anglo American's Quellaveco copper mine in Peru increased slightly in the first half of the year, but the company's total copper production decreased by 13% due to the decline in Chilean production [3] - **Smelting and Import**: Southern Copper's CFO believes that trade conflicts will impact the global economy and the copper industry, but is optimistic about the long - term prospects of copper. Glencore's copper production decreased by 26% in the first half of the year, and it raised its full - year production forecast [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Near the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited room for improvement. Due to some processing enterprises' export - rushing actions, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,350 tons to 138,200 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 351 tons to 19,622 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on July 28 was 119,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US tariff increase on semi-finished copper products has limited direct impact on the Chinese copper industry, and it is expected to have a certain negative impact on the Shanghai copper price, but the overall impact is not significant [3][14][35] - The price of copper may mainly show a volatile trend due to various factors such as China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, and inventory [35][36][37] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In June, affected by the dissipation of the negative impact of tariff policies, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly volatile and weakening trend, with a price range of about 77,650 yuan/ton to 80,780 yuan/ton [7] - The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,555 - 10,020 US dollars/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products starting from August 1st, while copper input materials and copper scrap are not subject to relevant tariffs [11] - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Different types of enterprises had different profit changes, and there were also significant differences in profit changes among industries [15][16] - On July 30th local time in the US, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, which was the fifth consecutive time to maintain the interest rate unchanged [3][35] 3. Supply Side - As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. As of July 25th, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was -4.26 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was -42.73 US dollars/kiloton [17] - As of July 31st, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 78,535 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 72,450 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper was -1,160 yuan/ton [23] 4. Demand Side - As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. In June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [26] 5. Inventory Side - As of July 25th, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 11,133 tons from the previous week. As of July 30th, 2025, the LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 12.4%. The COMEX copper inventory increased by 2,517 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 500 tons from the previous week [31] 6. Outlook - The factors affecting copper price trends include China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, inventory, etc., with different degrees of influence [34] - Considering various factors, the copper price may mainly show a volatile trend [35][36][37]