晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡季库存积累 价格区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝区间震荡。宏观上美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场 恰到好处；美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平，既不刺激也不抑制经济 活动。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices fluctuated within a narrow range during the day, with significantly lower volatility compared to the previous period. The main contract 2603 closed at 23,515, down slightly by 0.3%. The import window remained closed, with a theoretical loss of -2,300 yuan/ton for spot imports at the close. The cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with a negative AD - AL spread of -1,395 yuan/ton at the close. Alumina adjusted oscillatingly during the day, temporarily remaining above 2,800. As centralized maintenance ends, the industry's operating rate is expected to rise again. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and political disturbances in Guinea. There were limited changes in the electrolytic aluminum supply. Downstream industries have basically entered the holiday period, with the operating rate of processing enterprises decreasing. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased to 857,000 tons on Monday, with the inventory accumulation rate exceeding the seasonal level of previous years and reaching a three - year high. As the long holiday approaches, funds tend to be cautious, and the volatility of the non - ferrous sector has significantly decreased. The demand is in the off - season, and the high prices have suppressed demand, resulting in insufficient support. It should be treated as a short - term adjustment. As the long holiday is approaching, it is advisable to observe more and act less, and pay attention to macro - pricing and the realization of post - holiday demand expectations [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum price: The main 2603 contract closed at 23,515, down 0.3%. The import window remained closed with a theoretical loss of -2,300 yuan/ton for spot imports. The AD - AL spread of cast aluminum alloy was -1,395 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated above 2,800 [7] - Supply and demand: The electrolytic aluminum supply changed little. Downstream industries were in the holiday, and the operating rate of processing enterprises declined. The social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 857,000 tons on Monday, with inventory accumulation exceeding the seasonal level of previous years [7] - Suggestion: As the long holiday approaches, funds are cautious, the non - ferrous sector's volatility decreases, and demand support is insufficient. It should be treated as a short - term adjustment. Observe more and act less, and focus on macro - pricing and post - holiday demand expectations [7] 3.2. Industry News - Mozambique: The government is making every effort to ensure the continued operation of South32's Mozal aluminum smelter. South32 plans to maintain the plant by March due to a failure to reach a power supply agreement, incurring a one - off cost of $60 million [8] - Fujian: The Fujian Development and Reform Commission announced 1,570 provincial key projects in 2026, with a total investment of 4.01 trillion yuan and an annual planned investment of 722.6 billion yuan. There are 6 aluminum - related projects [10] - "Aluminum Replacing Copper": 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. Some brands plan to launch aluminum household air - conditioning products in 2026, while others have no such plans [10] - Rio Tinto: It will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation until 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs [10] - India: National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]

Group 1: Hongqiao Holdings (002379.SZ) - The company is a leading aluminum producer with over 19 million tons of alumina capacity and 6.46 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, making it the second-largest aluminum producer globally [8] - The revenue from electrolytic aluminum accounts for over 70% of total revenue, while alumina contributes 20% [8] - The company benefits from stable alumina supply and lower transportation costs due to its advantageous geographical location [8] - The electricity cost for electrolytic aluminum production is relatively high, but there is potential for reduction, which could significantly increase profits [9] - The company has a high dividend payout policy, planning to distribute at least 80% of profits as cash dividends from 2025 to 2027 [9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 166.2 billion, 177.3 billion, and 177.3 billion yuan, with net profits of 19.31 billion, 29.21 billion, and 30.39 billion yuan respectively [10] Group 2: Electric Power Green Energy (000875.SZ) - The company is the only green hydrogen energy platform under the State Power Investment Corporation, focusing on both "new energy" and "green hydrogen" sectors [10] - As of 2024, the company has a total installed capacity of 14.44 million kilowatts, with a significant portion from renewable sources [10] - The profitability of coal-fired power generation is expected to stabilize due to improvements in pricing mechanisms [11] - The company is actively developing green hydrogen projects, leveraging abundant wind and solar resources for hydrogen production [12] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 533 million, 809 million, and 907 million yuan, with a projected price range of 7.89 to 8.24 yuan per share [13] Group 3: Agricultural Industry - The agricultural sector is experiencing significant supply pressures, particularly in egg production, which may lead to accelerated culling of dairy cows due to low milk prices [14] - The price of live pigs is expected to remain stable, while beef prices are projected to rise, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle [15] - The dairy market is facing challenges, with raw milk prices potentially reaching a turning point in 2026 [15] - The poultry market is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand, with limited supply fluctuations [15] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor index saw an 18.04% increase in January, outperforming the electronic industry and the Shanghai Composite Index [28] - Global semiconductor sales in December 2025 reached $78.88 billion, marking a 37.1% year-on-year increase [28] - The demand for DRAM and NAND Flash is expected to grow significantly, with DRAM production value projected to increase by 144% in 2026 [31] Group 5: Bilibili (09626.HK) - Bilibili has successfully transitioned from a niche platform to a leading PUGC video platform, with MAU and DAU reaching historical highs [32] - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, driven by high-margin advertising and gaming businesses [33] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 25.48 billion, 33.66 billion, and 45.76 billion yuan, with a significant upside potential in stock valuation [34]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nanshan Aluminum International with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of HKD 78.18 based on a PE of 13 times for 2026 [1]. Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum is a leading alumina producer in Southeast Asia with a stable cash flow and high growth potential, having established a production capacity of 4 million tons of alumina and plans for additional aluminum production [1][2]. - The company benefits from significant cost advantages in its alumina business due to Indonesia's rich bauxite resources and export bans, leading to higher profitability compared to domestic averages [2][14]. - A new 250,000-ton aluminum production capacity is expected to be operational by 2028, which could significantly boost future earnings [3][15]. - The global aluminum price is projected to reach an average of USD 3,200 per ton in 2026, supported by limited supply growth and recovering demand [4][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nanshan Aluminum International is primarily engaged in alumina production and sales, with a production base in Indonesia. The company has a total alumina capacity of 4 million tons, benefiting from low raw material costs [2][14]. - The company is controlled by Nanshan Aluminum, which holds a 56.97% stake, ensuring stable governance and resource support [18][20]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of USD 1.2 billion, USD 1.48 billion, and USD 1.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profits are expected to reach USD 412.1 million, USD 475.3 million, and USD 568.3 million in the same years [5][11]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin, with a projected gross profit margin of 51% in the first half of 2025 [21][27]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the global supply of aluminum is expected to grow slowly, with a projected increase of only 1.7% in 2026. This is due to domestic production constraints and slow recovery in overseas capacities [4][34]. - Demand for aluminum is anticipated to grow by approximately 2.4% in 2026, driven by a recovery in the global manufacturing sector [4][16]. Future Growth Potential - The planned 250,000-ton aluminum project is expected to contribute approximately USD 259 million in net profit once operational, with further expansion plans for an additional 500,000 tons in the future [3][15]. - The company’s low-cost structure and stable cash flow from its alumina business are expected to support its growth trajectory and profitability in the coming years [2][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading producer in the aluminum industry, with over 70% of its revenue coming from electrolytic aluminum, and it is the second-largest aluminum producer globally [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company has an alumina production capacity of 19 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons [1]. - The indirect controlling shareholder is China Hongqiao, which is the profit center for the company [2]. Group 2: Production and Cost Advantages - The company sources over 80% of its bauxite from Guinea, which is stable and has low price volatility, effectively mitigating resource risks [2]. - The alumina production is located in Shandong, providing a cost advantage of approximately 250 RMB/ton compared to inland production due to lower transportation costs [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity is primarily located in Shandong (4.46 million tons) and Yunnan (2 million tons), with plans to increase Yunnan's capacity to 3 million tons by 2028 [2]. - The company faces higher electricity costs, purchasing power from an affiliated power plant at a price of 0.51 RMB/kWh, but there is potential for cost reduction as electricity prices in Shandong are expected to decrease [2]. Group 3: Dividend Policy and Financial Projections - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, committing to a minimum of 80% cash dividends from profits for the next three years (2025-2027) [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 166.2 billion, 177.3 billion, and 177.3 billion RMB, with net profits of 19.31 billion, 29.21 billion, and 30.39 billion RMB, respectively [3]. - The estimated earnings per share for the same period are 1.48, 2.24, and 2.33 RMB, with a projected profit growth rate of 6.4%, 51.3%, and 4.0% [3]. - The company's reasonable valuation range is estimated to be between 31.4 and 35.8 RMB, indicating a premium of 7% to 22% over the current market value [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Wash trade, the aluminum price has significantly corrected, releasing industrial contradictions. However, at the current time and price level, it is difficult to stimulate downstream active procurement. With downstream entering the holiday period, the social inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally, exerting significant pressure on prices. Although there are expectations for the Two Sessions after the holiday, the aluminum price is unlikely to perform well under inventory pressure. In the short term, it is advisable to avoid risks as the long holiday approaches. In the long term, consumption resilience and strength are expected to remain positive, especially in the export market, and with a strong macro environment of simultaneous easing at home and abroad, the long - term aluminum price is likely to rise rather than fall [6] - The domestic supply pressure of alumina has not been alleviated. Although there are rumors about an alumina plant in Hebei, it is unlikely to have a substantial impact. The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and social inventory continues to increase. With the decline in the price of domestic ore in the north, the procurement enthusiasm of alumina plants for ore has decreased, and the import ore price is also falling. The cost side is difficult to provide strong support, and alumina plants are unlikely to initiate large - scale production cuts. The futures price is still at a premium, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change, with social inventory continuing to rise. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material inventory, and the winter storage expectation is low. Although the current futures price discount to the spot price will relieve the pressure on warehouse receipts, it is difficult to change the inventory pressure [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 23,400 yuan/ton, a change of 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum is - 170 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 23,280 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed - 30 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 23,430 yuan/ton, a change of 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed 15 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,500 yuan/ton, closed at 23,540 yuan/ton, a change of 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 23,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,425 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 304,640 lots, and the position was 197,639 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of February 9, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 857,000 tons, a change of 21,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 164,512 tons, a change of 8,979 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 488,975 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On February 9, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 311 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,840 yuan/ton, closed at 2,868 yuan/ton, a change of 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of 1.45%. The highest price reached 2,937 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,769 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 1,076,076 lots, and the position was 333,870 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 9, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 17,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 17,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 84,600 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,430 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 570 yuan/ton [5]

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，氧化铝行业供给整体呈小幅收缩态势，2026年1月氧化铝亏损面 较2025年12月有明显扩大。从盈利看，氧化铝行业亏损面扩大，供给收缩有望刺激价格反弹。反内卷在 氧化铝行业的推动，着重在于强化管理和优化布局，重塑供需格局。此外，该行认为，2026年几内亚新 总统上台后，矿业政策的变化，可能会扰动全球铝土矿供应格局，从而刺激价格反转上行。 从反内卷看，格局重塑有望驱动价格中枢回归 该行认为，反内卷在氧化铝行业的推动，着重在于强化管理和优化布局，一方面对存量项目进行严格的 项目合规审查和环保能耗等监测;另一方面对新项目要满足国家产业调控要求，防止盲目投资和无序建 设，这可能对远期供应形成压制，重塑氧化铝供需格局。 从几内亚看，矿业政策扰动有望驱动铝土矿和氧化铝价格反转上行 几内亚对全球铝土矿供给影响较大，据CRU和中国海关数据，2025年几内亚铝土矿产量全球占比 40.6%，占中国进口铝土矿比例74.3%。该行认为，2026年几内亚新总统上台后，矿业政策的变化，可 能会扰动全球铝土矿供应格局，从而刺激价格反转上行。 中金主要观点如下： 行业近况 据SMM，2026年1月中国冶金级 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铝】2月5日，位于内蒙古的达拉特-蒙西1000千伏 交流输变电工程获国家发改委核准。该工程是蒙西-京津冀特高 压直流工程的配套项目，投资43.74亿元，旨在强化区域电网结 构。评：项目正式开工后，将带来可观的铝材消耗，印证了以 电网升级、光伏及储能为代表的新能源领域，是铝消费增长最 确定的结构性引擎。目前新能源长期需求故事坚实，但当下受 限于传统消费淡季，下游加工企业备货基本结束，市场交投清 淡。节前预计铝价维持震荡格局，等待节后需求复苏。 【短评-原油】俄罗斯1月原油产量连续第二个月下降，平 均日产量降至928万桶（不含凝析油），较12月减少4.6万桶/ 日，且低于其在欧佩克+协议中允许的产量近30万桶/日； 据新 华社援引伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社报道说，伊朗外长阿拉格齐 表示，伊朗在伊美谈判中有两条"红线"：伊朗不会放弃铀浓 缩，也不会就本国导弹事宜进行谈判；另有报道说,当地时间2 月9日，美国向途经霍尔木兹海峡的商船发布最新指南，该机构 建议"悬挂美国国旗的商船尽可能远离伊朗领海，并在被伊朗 军队要求登船时口头拒绝——如果伊朗军队登船，船员不应强 行抵抗"。评：美国加大 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the aluminum market is experiencing upward price movements due to strong US stock performance and dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have boosted market sentiment [1][2] - The latest closing price for London aluminum is reported at $3130 per ton, reflecting an increase of $20 or 0.64%, while the Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 23625 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan or 0.17% [1] - Domestic downstream demand remains supportive despite a slight decline in the weekly operating rate of the aluminum processing industry, with low-level stocking needs still present [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in the US dollar index by 0.8%, reaching its lowest level in over a week, which supports aluminum prices as it enhances the attractiveness of risk products for overseas buyers [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to increase, but the extent of this increase is limited, resulting in relatively small supply pressure [2] - Market liquidity concerns have eased, leading to a recovery in risk appetite, with copper and tin prices rising and positively influencing other non-ferrous metals [3]

Core Viewpoint - The spot prices of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) have significantly increased across various regions in China as of February 9, 2026, indicating strong market demand or supply constraints, which is favorable for spot prices [1][4]. Price Summary - In East China, the price is quoted at 23,400 CNY/ton, in South China at 23,430 CNY/ton, in Southwest China at 23,370 CNY/ton, and in Central China at 23,280 CNY/ton. These prices represent increases of 260 CNY/ton, 290 CNY/ton, 260 CNY/ton, and 250 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous trading day (February 6) [1][4]. Market Analysis - The significant price increases suggest robust demand for aluminum or tight supply conditions, which is likely driven by a recovery in downstream manufacturing or a reduction in inventory levels, leading to a bullish sentiment in the short term [2][5]. Pricing Mechanism - The benchmark price from the Business Society is derived from big data and pricing models, serving as a trading guide price. It can be used to determine settlement prices for specified dates or average prices over specified periods. The pricing formula is: Settlement Price = Business Society Benchmark Price × K + C, where K is an adjustment coefficient and C includes premiums related to logistics, brand price differences, and regional price differences [2][3][5].