截至2025年11月17日 14:29，中证细分有色金属产业主题指数(000811)下跌0.58%。成分股方面涨跌互现，盛新锂能(002240)领涨10.01%，中矿资源(002738) 上涨10.00%，雅化集团(002497)上涨10.00%；中孚实业(600595)领跌7.88%，中国铝业(601600)下跌4.55%，云铝股份(000807)下跌4.47%。有色 50ETF(159652)下跌0.39%，最新报价1.53元。拉长时间看，截至2025年11月14日，有色50ETF近1周累计上涨1.59%。 流动性方面，有色50ETF盘中换手5.7%，成交1.61亿元。拉长时间看，截至11月14日，有色50ETF近1月日均成交1.67亿元。 值得一提的是，有色50ETF(159652)盘中获资金逆市加仓，截至目前，该基金盘中已获净申购6200万份，按盘中成交均价估算，净申购金额已超9400元。 | | 有色50ETF 159652 | ਐ | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 十〇 | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 赎回 | | 筆数 | 54 | 4 | | 金额 | 0 | 0 ...

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 中国铝业(601600.SH)现跌4.46%报11.14元，暂成交52亿元，最新市值1911亿元。该股上周四(11月13日)盘中曾高见12.3元，股价创2010年11月12日以来逾15 年新高。 中国铝业公告称，公司现任董事、副总经理蒋涛计划自2025年12月8日起至2026年3月7日期间，通过集中竞价方式减持不超过5.75万股A股股份，约占公司总 股本的0.00034%。减持价格按市场价格确定，减持数量未超过其持有公司股份数量的25%。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry Group, a leading electrolytic aluminum company from Inner Mongolia, is set to launch its IPO on November 24 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having secured significant cornerstone investments totaling approximately $351 million from 17 prominent investors, indicating strong confidence in the company's fundamentals and growth prospects [1] Company Overview - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream high-value-added segments of the aluminum industry, primarily producing and selling electrolytic aluminum and alumina. According to CRU reports, it ranks as the fourth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in North China and the twelfth largest in China by 2024 production capacity [2] - The company's core competitiveness lies in its integrated ecosystem of "energy - alumina refining - electrolytic aluminum smelting," which provides two key advantages: a high self-sufficiency rate for key raw materials, with alumina self-sufficiency projected at approximately 84% in 2024, and excellent energy security, maintaining a long-term electricity self-sufficiency rate of around 88% [2] Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Innovation Industry's revenue is expected to grow from 13.49 billion yuan to 15.16 billion yuan, while net profit is projected to increase significantly from 0.88 billion yuan to 2.06 billion yuan, demonstrating strong profit growth momentum [2] Operational Efficiency - Through continuous technological innovation and refined management, Innovation Industry has achieved industry-leading results in cost reduction and efficiency enhancement. The company's electrolytic aluminum smelting power consumption is controlled at 13,366 kWh per ton for 2024, below the industry average, with plans to further reduce it to 13,290 kWh by the end of 2025 [3] - The company's highly automated production allows for an annual per capita output of 590 to 670 tons, which is 2.2 to 2.6 times the industry average. The estimated cash cost per ton of aluminum for 2024 is approximately 15,112 yuan, significantly lower than the Chinese average of around 17,700 yuan per ton, placing its cost control capabilities among the top 5% domestically and the top 30% globally [3] Industry Outlook - The global electrolytic aluminum industry is currently experiencing a "demand expansion, supply constraint" scenario, driven by growth in sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic energy storage. It is anticipated that there will be a domestic annual demand gap exceeding one million tons before 2034 due to a production capacity cap of 45 million tons and overseas environmental policy restrictions [3] - Of the net proceeds from the IPO, 50% will be allocated to expanding overseas capacity (such as a 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia), 40% will be invested in green energy projects, and 10% will be used to supplement working capital. The Saudi project, leveraging local cheap energy and a 4.6% annual demand growth rate in the Middle East, is expected to become the company's second growth curve, further opening up global growth opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The successful IPO of Innovation International Industrial Group Limited is supported by a strong base of cornerstone investors, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value and growth potential [3][4][17]. Group 1: IPO and Market Reception - Innovation International's IPO has attracted significant interest, with over 54 times subscription as of November 17, indicating robust market demand and investor confidence in the company's fundamentals [2][12]. - The cornerstone investor lineup includes 17 top-tier institutions, with a total subscription amount of approximately 3.36 billion USD, equivalent to about 26.12 billion HKD, representing nearly 50% of the total offering [2][4]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages and Industry Position - The company focuses on high-value segments of the aluminum industry, specifically refining and smelting, creating a competitive edge through an integrated ecosystem covering key production stages [8][11]. - Innovation International has achieved a human output of 590 to 670 tons of electrolytic aluminum per person, significantly exceeding the industry average by 2.2 to 2.6 times [11]. - The company boasts a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 84% for alumina and 88% for electricity, far surpassing the industry average of about 57%, providing a strong competitive barrier [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Outlook and Strategic Expansion - The electrolytic aluminum sector is entering a structural upturn driven by sustained demand growth and supply constraints, with a projected market demand gap exceeding one million tons by 2034 [12][13]. - The company is planning to expand its electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Saudi Arabia, capitalizing on the region's abundant energy resources and projected annual demand growth of 4.6% from 2025 to 2028 [13][14]. Group 4: Conclusion - The IPO of Innovation International exemplifies how companies that deeply engage in their industry and build integrated advantages can attract top institutional investors, reflecting a consensus on the structural opportunities within the global aluminum market [15][16][17].

瑞银发布研究报告指出，中国宏桥(01378)作为行业龙头，在供应受限、价格向好的环境下有望持续受 益。基于更高的铝价预测，瑞银将宏桥的2026年预测净利润上调11%，2027年预测净利润上调16%。该 行重申中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，并将目标价从28港元上调至38.6港元。 基于供需偏紧的核心判断，瑞银上调了今明两年铝价预期：2026年中国铝价预测上调5%至22000元/ 吨，2027年上调7%至23000元/吨；伦敦金属交易所铝价预测也被上调约15%，主要得益于铜价上涨催生 的铝替代需求增长。 供应端受限成关键逻辑，供需缺口持续扩大 瑞银全球金属与矿业团队测算，2026至2027年全球原铝需求年增速将维持4%，而供应端增速仅 1%-2%，市场或陷入短缺格局，进而带动显性库存回落，为铝价提供强劲支撑。 具体来看，国内铝业产能受政策严格管控，上限锁定在4520万吨/年，当前产能利用率已超98%，接近 政策红线。新增产能方面，2026年仅有天山铝业（002532）20万吨/年扩建项目及扎鲁特旗35万吨/年新 建项目计划投产，2027年则无新增产能规划。海外市场方面，主要供应增量集中于印度尼西亚，但受部 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研究报告指出，中国宏桥(01378)作为行业龙头，在供应受限、价格向好的 环境下有望持续受益。基于更高的铝价预测，瑞银将宏桥的2026年预测净利润上调11%，2027年预测净 利润上调16%。该行重申中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，并将目标价从28港元上调至38.6港元。 基于供需偏紧的核心判断，瑞银上调了今明两年铝价预期：2026年中国铝价预测上调5%至22000元/ 吨，2027年上调7%至23000元/吨；伦敦金属交易所铝价预测也被上调约15%，主要得益于铜价上涨催生 的铝替代需求增长。 具体来看，国内铝业产能受政策严格管控，上限锁定在4520万吨/年，当前产能利用率已超98%，接近 政策红线。新增产能方面，2026年仅有天山铝业20万吨/年扩建项目及扎鲁特旗35万吨/年新建项目计划 投产，2027年则无新增产能规划。海外市场方面，主要供应增量集中于印度尼西亚，但受部分项目可能 减产的影响，2026-2027年全球原铝供应年增长率预计仅为1%-2%。同期全球铝需求将预期保持4%的年 增长率，全球铝市供需缺口有望进一步扩大。 铝价预测同步上调，铜价上涨促使铝替代需求 供应端 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, the global supply - side growth rate of primary aluminum may slow down in 2026 due to capacity constraints in China and slow new capacity and复产 progress overseas, while demand is expected to remain resilient, with the supply gap expanding compared to 2025. The mid - term supply - demand pattern is still strong. In the near term, the aluminum price may fluctuate in late November as there is no significant new demand increase despite sufficient supply and resilient demand [4][11]. - The aluminum market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait for the price to rise. For short - term trading, consider reducing or exiting long positions to avoid risks [4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: Domestic bauxite inventory has reached the same - period high, sufficient for this year's production. Although there are repeated disturbances in the mining end, the short - term impact is limited [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of November 14, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96 million tons and a utilization rate of about 85.37%. Alumina supply and demand have been in surplus for some time, and supply flexibility is restricted. The expected increase in imported ore supply also puts downward pressure on ore prices [9]. - **Production of Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.7165 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.5593 million tons. The global aluminum supply has entered a low - growth stage, and overseas production cuts due to power shortages may reduce future supply increments [9]. - **Import and Export**: In October, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was about 503,000 tons, slightly lower than in September, at the average level in recent years. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,700 yuan/ton, narrowing from last week's 2,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: Different aluminum product sectors have different demand situations. The aluminum profile and alloy sectors are relatively stable, while the aluminum plate, strip, and foil sectors may face a downward trend. The aluminum cable sector may see a slight increase, and the overall downstream processing industry shows a differentiated trend [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 619,000 tons, basically stable compared to last week, about 10% higher than the same period last year. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level in recent years. The aluminum rod inventory is 139,500 tons, about 2% higher than last week and about 50% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory is about 1% higher than last week and about 22% lower than last year, still at a low level in recent years [10][17][18]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 22,800 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 50 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,950 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,800 yuan/ton, up from 4,400 yuan/ton last week [11]. - **Market Expectation**: The overseas macro - environment is unfavorable due to uncertainties in the US economic data and the Fed's hawkish stance. The aluminum price may fluctuate in the short term, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is strong [11]. Important Industry Price Changes - The price of bauxite is generally stable, but the market is pessimistic about the future, expecting a further decline in December. The coal price has been rising since September, and the supply - demand is expected to be strong at the end of the year. The alumina price has been falling since mid - August, and the cost support may strengthen after the dry season in the southwest [12]. Important Industry Inventory Changes - The domestic port bauxite inventory has slightly increased, remaining at a high level this year. The alumina inventory has been rapidly accumulating since late May, reaching a high level in recent years. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas is stable, while the aluminum rod inventory has increased [17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing a differentiated trend. It is expected that the short - term operating rate will continue to show a differentiated pattern [26]. Futures and Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai aluminum futures is moderately weak [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,840 yuan/ton this week, up from - 2,080 yuan/ton before the holiday. The current spread has a moderately negative impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][36]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is near the high since April 2022. The latest net long position has slightly decreased, but the long - side has been increasing positions since June, and the short - side has been slightly increasing since October. The overall market is still strong [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week, at a high level this year. The long - and short - sides have been increasing positions since October. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased, with large internal differences. The net long position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has decreased in the past two weeks. Overall, the main funds are still bullish, but the differences are increasing [41].

2025 年 11 月 17 日 风险偏好回落 铝价高位调整 核心观点及策略 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 1 / 7 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，上周美联储官员鹰派发言一度压制美 联储间隙预期，不过就业数据较弱，后续降息预期仍 有变动。美国政府即将开门，前期暂停的经济数据密 集公布，市场宏观波动放大。基本面国内供应端开工 产能稳定，铝水比例回落，铸锭量提高。海外由于电 力紧张，未来供应端担忧持续笼罩。消费端上周铝加 工开工率小幅回升0.4%至62%，电力及汽车板块消费 较有韧性。不过旺淡季切换下开工率难持续回升。周 度铝 ...

中长线趋势看多 在全球能源转型背景下，供应刚性、需求强劲，加之宏观乐观预期强化，铝价易涨难跌。不过，短线来 看，沪铝上冲22000元/吨后，消费淡季的季节性压力可能导致价格出现下行风险。 2025年以来，沪铝价格呈现稳健上涨态势，尤其在11月13日，盘中价格突破22000元/吨，创下年内新 高。这一趋势主要受宏观环境与基本面共振的推动。 宏观乐观预期强化 美联储在9月和10月连续降息，提振大宗商品有色市场情绪。同时，中美经贸关系缓和，双方在关税问 题上达成共识，有助于缓解铝产品贸易壁垒，缓解市场对出口的担忧。此外，美国政治不确定性有所下 降，政府"停摆"出现转机，加之公布的经济数据并未如市场预期般悲观，共同强化了宏观层面的乐观预 期。 成本支撑减弱 近期，几内亚雨季和澳大利亚发运量减少导致港口铝土矿库存明显下降。待几内亚雨季结束，铝土矿发 运将回到前期水平。另外，我国自非主流产地的铝土矿进口补充量持续增长，国内样本企业原料库存充 足，保证了下游冶炼生产开工稳定，以至于几内亚矿和澳矿进口报价稳步下调，矿端成本支撑减弱。 氧化铝生产在原料备库充足的情况下保持高开工率。截至10月，全国氧化铝建成产能为11470万吨 ...

2025年以来，沪铝价格呈现稳健上涨态势，尤其在11月13日，盘中价格突破22000元／吨，创下年内新 高。这一趋势主要受宏观环境与基本面共振的推动。 宏观乐观预期强化 美联储在9月和10月连续降息，提振大宗商品有色市场情绪。同时，中美经贸关系缓和，双方在关税问 题上达成共识，有助于缓解铝产品贸易壁垒，缓解市场对出口的担忧。此外，美国政治不确定性有所下 降，政府"停摆"出现转机，加之公布的经济数据并未如市场预期般悲观，共同强化了宏观层面的乐观预 期。 成本支撑减弱 国内产能几乎满负荷运行 截至10月，国内电解铝建成产能为4572万吨，运行产能为4456万吨，产能利用率处于97.46%的高位。 电解铝行业高利润促使厂家积极生产，目前运行产能接近4500万吨的政策红线，后续运行产能增长有 限。此外，截至10月，电解铝社会库存处于往年同期偏低水平，华南地区库存偏高且去化不畅，华东地 区库存持续去化带来市场惜售挺价效应，地区差异更多反映出地区性下游需求消化能力不同。 根据美国地质调查局出版的《2025年矿产品摘要》，2024年，全球电解铝产量评估约为7200万吨，其中 中国贡献约六成，海外远期电解铝虽有新增产能布局计 ...