2025年大宗商品市场呈现分化格局，金银等贵金属走出了史诗级牛市，工业金属强劲反弹，而能源和农产品则陷入多年低谷。 贵金属市场创造了历史性涨势。白银涨超146%创下有史以来最大年度涨幅，黄金上涨超过60%，录得1979年以来最强表现。贵金属的狂飙主要受 美联储降息预期、地缘政治冲突、央行持续购金以及交易所交易基金持仓增加推动。 基本金属市场同样表现强劲。伦铜全年上涨近44%，创2009年以来最大年度涨幅，并在年末触及12960美元的历史高位。 相比之下，能源市场走势略显失意。WTI原油全年均下跌超18%，录得2020年以来最大年度跌幅，非OPEC+国家的产量增长与全球经济增长放缓 的预期，共同加剧了市场对供应持续过剩的担忧，彻底压制了油价。 与此同时，农产品市场普遍受供应压力主导而表现疲软。可可价格因供应从紧张转为充裕而暴跌48%，成为年度输家；原糖、咖啡、小麦及玉米 等主要农产品亦普遍承压走弱。 本轮史诗级上涨主要由四大结构性因素驱动：首先是政策价值重估。白银被美国列为关键矿产，引发战略地位的根本性提升；其次，白银供应刚 性约束支撑价格。矿山产出增长缓慢，与此同时，全球交易所库存持续处于历史低位；第三是工业 ...

Market Overview - On December 31, the global precious metals market experienced significant turmoil, with spot silver dropping over 7% and platinum falling more than 12% in a single day [1][3] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements for precious metal futures for the second time, causing investor concern about the sustainability of the recent price surge [1][7] Price Movements - Spot silver fell below $71 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 5%, closing at $72.12 per ounce [3] - Other precious metals also saw substantial declines, with platinum dropping over 11% and palladium down more than 5% [3] - Gold prices also decreased, with COMEX gold experiencing a drop of over 1% [5] Regulatory Actions - The CME's recent margin increase is aimed at cooling down the rapidly rising precious metals market, following a previous increase on December 12 [7][8] - This regulatory action requires traders to provide more collateral, thereby limiting market leverage and reflecting concerns over market volatility [8] - Domestic regulatory bodies, such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange, have also adjusted trading limits and margin requirements for gold and silver futures [9][10] Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent declines in precious metals are primarily due to technical factors, including profit-taking by long positions and forced deleveraging amid stricter margin requirements [12] - Despite the recent pullback, gold and silver are expected to record their strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by strong central bank purchases and continued inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [12] - The long-term outlook for silver remains positive due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with a projected supply gap of over 100 million ounces by 2025 [12] - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 16,400 tons as of December 26, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2% [12] Future Outlook - Analysts from Jinrui Futures believe that the recent price drop is a significant shakeout in the bull market, suggesting that once speculative bubbles are cleared, market pricing may return to being driven by fundamentals [12] - Optimistic forecasts from Wall Street economist Peter Schiff suggest that silver prices could exceed $100 per ounce in the coming year [14]

每经记者｜吴永久 每经编辑｜闫峰峰 2025年的A股于今日收官，上证指数年涨幅达18.41%，AI硬件、有色金属、商业航天、人形机器人等多个板块表现靓丽。展望2026年，多数机构认为，国 内外增量资金入市、企业盈利修复、政策端加码等多重因素有望支撑A股表现，2026年A股迈向"慢牛"。 在每日经济新闻App举办的掘金大赛中，第80期比赛于今日结束，多位选手表现出色。其中冠军收益率58.39%，亚军收益率54.94%，季军收益率 54.50%。本期比赛共908名选手取得正收益，他们都将获得现金奖励。 从12月的月度积分王来看，第一名选手积分达12分，他在12月的收益率超过80%。第二名选手积分达10分，第三名选手积分达9分。根据比赛规则，当月 度总积分相同时，以当月最后一期比赛的收益率进行排名，前100名选手都将获得现金奖励。 | 排名 | 昵称 | 积分▼ | 趋势 | 功能 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 终极- 一战 | 12 | | 看持仓 | | 2 | 郭浩南 | 10 | | 看持仓 | | 3 | 康师傅方 ... | 9 | | 看持仓 | | ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84, with a daily increase of 0.09% and an annual growth of 18.41%, marking the best performance since 2019 [2][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.58% today but achieved an annual growth of 29.87%, the best since 2020 [2] - The ChiNext Index fell by 1.23% today, yet recorded an impressive annual growth of 49.57%, the highest since 2020 [2] - The North Stock 50 Index declined by 0.7% today, with an annual increase of 38.8% [2] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index saw an annual increase of 27.77%, the best performance since 2017 [6] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 23.45% over the year, marking its best performance since its establishment in 2020 [6] Precious Metals Market - On December 31, precious metals experienced significant declines, with spot gold dropping by 1.50% and spot silver falling over 6% [9] - Despite the recent downturn, silver's performance for the year was remarkable, soaring by 147%, and both gold and silver are expected to achieve their best annual growth since 1979 [9] - The CME Group announced a second increase in margin requirements for precious metals futures within a week, citing market volatility as the reason [11] - Silver futures reached a record high of over $82 per ounce before experiencing a substantial pullback [12]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [17]. Core Views - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a small upward trend, with notable performance in the aerospace, software development, non-ferrous metals, and internet services sectors, while sectors like pharmaceutical commerce, precious metals, shipbuilding, and batteries underperformed [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 16.28 times and 50.28 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][16]. - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a shift in macro policy focus from total expansion to a balance of quality and sustainability, highlighting future industries such as artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, quantum technology, and 6G as key investment directions [3][16]. - The market anticipates a continuation of a "moderately loose" domestic monetary policy, with expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, contributing to a more favorable global liquidity environment [3][16]. - The strengthening of the RMB is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, facilitating capital inflows [3][16]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On December 31, the A-share market showed a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, up 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% [7][8]. - The total trading volume for the day was 20,659 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [3][7]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments, with a short-term focus on investment opportunities in aerospace, software development, non-ferrous metals, and internet services sectors [3][16].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold, silver, and platinum prices declining sharply after a period of substantial gains, driven by profit-taking and reduced geopolitical risks [6][7][11]. Price Movements - Gold prices fell by 1.50% to below $4300 per ounce, while silver dropped over 7% at one point, currently down 5.02% [1] - The main silver futures contract fell over 5%, currently down 4.27%, priced at 17074 yuan per kilogram [3] - Platinum futures saw a decline of 14%, currently priced at 527.25 yuan per gram [3] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in precious metals prices, particularly silver, saw silver futures rise from around $50 to over $80 per ounce, marking a monthly increase of approximately 150% [6] - As of last week, gold had increased by about 70% for the year, while other precious metals like platinum and palladium saw gains exceeding 100% [6] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped from a high of 120 in 2020 to around 60, indicating potential undervaluation of gold or overvaluation of silver [6] Factors Influencing Price Changes - The decline in precious metal prices is attributed to profit-taking after previous gains, reduced geopolitical risks, and increased margin requirements by major exchanges [7][9] - Financial institutions are under pressure to settle accounts by year-end, leading to selling at high prices, which has put downward pressure on prices [7] - Analysts suggest that the recent price drop is more of a technical correction rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics [9] Future Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of continued demand from central banks and a potential shift towards a weaker dollar [9][10] - Predictions for gold prices in 2026 are around $5000 per ounce, driven by structural demand from central banks and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The demand for gold from emerging market central banks is at a historical high, with significant purchases expected to continue [10] Market Sentiment - The current market is characterized by high volatility, with investors advised to be cautious about chasing prices [11][12] - The perception of gold as a hard currency is evolving, with investors reassessing its value in light of rising U.S. debt and fiscal sustainability concerns [11] - The market is increasingly influenced by investor sentiment and liquidity, making it essential for participants to monitor emotional factors alongside traditional supply and demand dynamics [12]

Group 1 - The recent volatility in silver prices has been dramatic, with prices soaring and then experiencing a significant correction within a short period [1][4] - On December 17, the spot silver price broke the key level of $66 per ounce, reaching a high of $66.88, followed by a peak of $83.62 on December 29 before closing at $72.23 [4][5] - The COMEX silver futures also saw a rise from $43 per ounce in late October to over $80, before settling around $70 on December 29, indicating substantial gains and subsequent corrections in both spot and futures markets [5] Group 2 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements for silver futures contracts to cool down the overheated market, making it more expensive for traders to enter positions [7] - This regulatory action aims to reduce speculative trading and stabilize the market, as many investors were entering based on trends rather than actual demand [7] Group 3 - The primary driver behind the surge in silver prices is the imbalance between supply and demand, particularly due to increased demand from the renewable energy and artificial intelligence sectors [9] - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to grow significantly, with projected consumption reaching 7,560 tons in 2025 and increasing thereafter [9] - Additionally, silver's inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list has heightened investor interest, suggesting potential long-term shortages and driving prices higher [10] Group 4 - The rising silver prices pose challenges for industries reliant on silver, such as Tesla, which has expressed concerns over increased production costs due to higher silver prices [12] - The impact of rising silver prices on production costs could affect pricing and profitability for companies that utilize silver in their manufacturing processes [12] Group 5 - Future silver price movements will largely depend on two key factors: changes in demand and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve [13] - While demand from the solar industry may stabilize, the overall fundamentals for silver remain strong, especially if the U.S. economy slows and interest rates decrease, making silver a more attractive investment [16] - The strength of the U.S. dollar will also play a crucial role, as a weaker dollar could lead to higher silver prices due to its dollar-denominated nature [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that COMEX gold futures prices have experienced a significant drop, currently trading around $4322, with mixed performance in related gold and precious metal ETFs [1] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a consensus on interest rate cuts, but with significant divisions among officials, leading to a market expectation of only a 15% probability for a rate cut in January [1] - The increase in margin requirements for precious metal futures by CME may suppress speculative trading sentiment in the short term [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent pullback in gold prices may be a technical adjustment following a rapid increase, compounded by the upcoming New Year holiday and enhanced risk control measures by exchanges prompting profit-taking [1] - The volatility in prices of other precious metals, such as silver, is exerting additional pressure on gold prices [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, market analysis indicates strong support for gold prices in the range of $4350 to $4400 per ounce, suggesting limited downside potential [1]

当地时间12月30日，美联储公开的12月议息会议纪要显示，货币政策制定者内部就未来降息路径的分歧加剧，外界判断 美联储明年初将谨慎对待进一步 降息。 在美联储12月货币政策会议纪要公布后，交易员维持美联储2026年内两次降息押注，而非12月初预期的三次。 受会议纪要影响，当地时间12月30日，长期美债收益率小幅上行，令高成长股承压，市场延续保守交易策略，资金流向防御型的公用事业板块，科技、金 融等板块下跌。美国股市三大股指小幅收跌，其中 道琼斯工业指数跌0.2%，报48367.06点；标准普尔500指数跌0.14%，报6896.24点；纳斯达克指数跌 0.24%，报23419.08点。 贵金属作为2025年以来回报率最高的大类资产之一，不得不提黄金、白银。回顾全年，金价不断刷新历史高位，先后经历了关税驱动、降息预期，以及技 术回调等几个主要阶段。其中伦敦黄金现货价格在年末再度冲刺，最高冲上4550美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅一度达到70%，成为年度表现最亮眼的资产之 一。 美联储的政策动向一直是黄金市场的最重要风向标。12月10日美联储如期宣布连续三次降息，并启动技术性扩表。12月降息25个基点的决议遭到三票反 ...

A股主要股指早盘表现 商业航天概念继续大涨 作为近期盘面最强热点，商业航天概念在年末最后一个交易日维持强势。早盘，多只商业航天概念股冲击涨停，其中，顺灏股份开盘两 分钟封住涨停，股价创历史新高，本月累计涨幅达到128%；中国卫星、北斗星通等均收获涨停。 今日早盘，A股市场整体窄幅震荡，AI硬件等部分热点题材出现调整，拖累创业板指跌超1%。截至午间休市，上证指数报3962.24点，跌 0.07%；深证成指、创业板指分别下跌0.67%和1.10%。 商业航天概念在年末最后一个交易日维持强势，顺灏股份（002565）开盘两分钟封住涨停，股价创历史新高。 顺灏股份早盘走势 消息面上，据国家国防科工局网站消息，日前，国家国防科工局党组理论学习中心组召开扩大会议，会议强调，要解放思想、革新理 念，以新思路、新举措加快推动航天事业高质量发展，持续提升科技创新能力，加快推动可重复使用火箭、重型火箭、国际月球科研站 等重点任务实施，助力实现高水平科技自立自强。 12月26日，上交所发布商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准审核指引，着力推进符合指引标准的商业火箭企业在科创板发行上市， 以更大力度支持突破关键核心技术的科技型企业发 ...