Core Insights - The Indian government's policies are restoring market confidence, with the SENSEX index rising by 3.5% in September, indicating a potential recovery in the stock market [1][3] - The SENSEX index closed at 82,626 points on September 19, just 4% away from its historical high of 85,836 points set in September 2024 [3] - There are signs of reduced selling pressure from foreign investors, with net purchases of $189 million recorded in the third week of September [6] Group 1: Government Policies and Market Response - The government's large-scale tax cuts are expected to boost consumer spending, contributing to GDP growth [8] - The reduction in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on various products, particularly in the automotive sector, is a significant aspect of the tax reform [6][9] - The market's positive response is also linked to the resumption of trade negotiations with the U.S. and the potential for lower tariffs [9] Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Investment Sentiment - DBS Group Research has raised its GDP growth forecast for India from 6.3% to 6.7% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [8] - Morgan Stanley predicts a 50% chance that the SENSEX index will reach 89,000 points by June 2026, with a 30% probability of hitting 100,000 points [9] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India is also contributing to positive market sentiment [9]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：张翼轸 来源：雪球 周一的行情 ， 银行股尽力了 。 是的 ， 因为上周芯片利好的刺激 ， 外加周一下午 3 点会议的憧憬 ， 所以市场弥漫着乐观的情绪 。 所以 ， 银行股早早上班 ， 在刚开盘有冒头向上痕迹时 ， 就狠狠下压 。 上证指数(红色曲线)大多数时候与中证银行(绿色曲线)同步略滞后 。 也 就是到了 2 点后 ， 银行股调控惯例躺平 ， 就躺平了这么一个小时不到 ， 上证指数就从跌 0.32%变成上涨 0.22%报收 ， 可见市场上涨的意愿 有多强烈 。 如果看类似中证1000 这样的小盘股 ， 更为明显 ， 尾盘不到一个小时的拉升 ， 轻松创出全日新高 。 全日行业表现 ， 依然是熟悉的味道 。 半导体和通信两翼齐飞 ， 此外机器人 、 电池表现也不错 ， 二线成长中就是光伏产业比较萎靡 。 | 名称 | 现价 | 两目图 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 5日涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 科创芯片 ...

时间回溯到2024年9月24日，彼时的A股正深陷信心泥潭，指数在低位反复震荡，投资者情绪跌至冰点。就在投资者还在担心指数是不是能够守住2700点的 时候，时间一晃一年过去了，上证指数已从2700点攀升至3800点以上，总市值首破100万亿元，超过1500只个股实现区间股价翻倍。 以沪深300为例，过去一年间，沪深300指数上涨40%，其中估值贡献率达到88%，EPS贡献率为12%。当前 A 股处于历史最长的 ROE 下行和 PPI 负增长区 间，工业企业利润、A 股净利润同比增速均在较长时间内处于低位。过去稳股市、反内卷等宏观政策持续发力，股票市场领先经济基本面反映。 从数据上看，本轮成长类赛道整体表现非常突出，在创新药出海、芯片国产替代等多重利好的刺激下，包括北证50、科创50、创业板指在内的多个成长类指 数，收益率直接翻倍。而港股的恒生科技，恒生国企等指数也都跑赢了大盘。 "924"一周年，成长类指数几乎都跑赢了大盘 数据来 源：Choice 截至：2025.9.23 尽管市场整体向好，但"结构性分化"仍是过去一年最突出的特征，代表未来发展方向的科技、数字经济板块"一骑绝尘"：人工智能产业链年内平均涨幅超 ...

每经AI快讯，9月24日，沙特股市上涨5%，沙特银行股指数涨9%，因可能放宽所有权限制。 ...

格隆汇9月24日｜沙特股市上涨5%，因可能放宽所有权限制。沙特银行股指数涨9%，涨幅创纪录新 高。 ...

Market Overview - The market opened lower but rebounded, with the ChiNext Index reaching a three-year high and the STAR 50 Index rising nearly 5% at one point. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.28%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 167.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor supply chain experienced a surge, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit. Notable performers included Jiangfeng Electronics, Changchuan Technology, and Tongfu Microelectronics. Huashuo Technology achieved a four-day limit increase, while Sunflower and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech saw consecutive limit increases [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector remains strong, with a focus on local equipment companies benefiting from an investment cycle led by advanced processes in the Chinese market [2] Real Estate Sector - The real estate and rental rights sectors showed signs of recovery, with stocks like Yuhua Development and Shanghai Lingang hitting the daily limit. Recent policy changes in cities like Shanghai and Suzhou aimed at reducing housing costs have stimulated housing consumption [4][5] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that while the real estate market has experienced fluctuations, the decline in sales and prices has narrowed, indicating a trend towards stabilization [4] Oil and Gas Sector - Oil and gas stocks were active, with stocks like Zhun Oil and Tongyuan Petroleum hitting the daily limit. WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.81% to $63.41 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.6% to $67.63 per barrel [6][7] Film and Entertainment Sector - The film and cinema sector rebounded, with Bona Film Group hitting the daily limit. The recent success of the film "731," which grossed over 1 billion yuan in its first four days, has energized the market ahead of the upcoming National Day holiday [8][9] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities emphasized the importance of sector rotation over index performance, suggesting a focus on individual stocks rather than overall market trends. The firm noted that the market remains at a high level without clear signs of a peak or decline [10] - Guotai Junan highlighted that the Chinese stock market is unlikely to stagnate, driven by a demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns. The firm anticipates further upward movement in A/H shares [11] - Guotai Securities indicated that the potential for low-position stocks to rebound is increasing, suggesting a more balanced structural style in the fourth quarter [12]

沙特股市上涨5%，因可能放宽所有权限制。沙特银行股指数涨9%，涨幅创纪录新高。 来源：滚动播报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas Fed's policy shift may lead to global liquidity easing, opening up space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity - easing trades. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There is an expectation that the funds from existing growth - stabilizing policies will be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data slowed significantly from July to August, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved [6]. - After the policies at home and abroad are settled, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, global loose liquidity and fiscal leverage - driven economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 this year to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after the interest - rate rise, and they should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's policy shift, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected. The Fed's independence risk may increase the potential for future rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the US economic data before the next Fed meeting [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There are risks in infrastructure investment in Q4, but the annual GDP target can still be achieved. The probability of the implementation of existing funds and new policies in Q4 will increase if investment and exports continue to decline in September [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the medium - term, equities are expected to perform better than commodities and bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and bonds' allocation value increases. Gold is for long - term strategic investment [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" due to the attenuation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" with concerns about unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has passed, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Demand recovery is slow, and there are continuous policy disturbances. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have decreased, and port inventories have increased. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is stable. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot transactions are good, and the futures price has a slight correction. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand drivers are limited, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand expectations are pessimistic, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Futures and spot inventories have increased significantly, and mid - stream restocking is coming to an end. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory has been continuously transferred, and upstream inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and the copper price is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession risks [7]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to ore production recovery, electrolytic - aluminum production recovery, and extreme market trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand shortfalls [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc - ore supply recovery [7]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the lead price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical risks, Indonesian policies, and supply - chain issues [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and demand improvement in Wa State [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, suppressing the silicon price. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Fundamental drivers are weak, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, supply disturbances, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil/LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and there are geopolitical disturbances. The short - term judgment for crude oil is "oscillating and falling", and for LPG is "oscillating", with attention to OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is under pressure at the 3500 level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel - oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of an emotional rebound. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Market sentiment is affected by future inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device operations [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand balance has weakened. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more production cuts. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to downstream yarn - mill purchases and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is short - term replenishment, but long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - cut targets and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The price difference with PP oscillates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: There may be support at the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is falling. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [9]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are expectations of alumina production resumption, and the caustic - soda price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased month - on - month. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: There is pre - holiday restocking, and the futures price has rebounded from the lower end of the range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Farmers are more willing to sell, and the futures price has broken through the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: There is positive sentiment from data correction, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has adjusted downward in advance due to expectations of a new - crop supply increase. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the sugar price is looking for support. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to imports [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is weak, and the pulp price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price is oscillating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: The futures price is fluctuating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [9].

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.28% [1] - Since the "924 market" last year, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by over 40%, the Shenzhen Component Index by over 65%, and the ChiNext Index by over 100% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,471 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,713 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Over 4,400 stocks in the market rose, with semiconductor, photovoltaic equipment, gaming, state-owned cloud, and real estate sectors leading the gains [1] - The semiconductor sector saw a significant surge, with many stocks hitting the daily limit, including Jiangfeng Electronics, Northern Huachuang, and Shenkong Co. [1] - The silicon material and photovoltaic energy storage sectors also rose sharply in the afternoon, with TCL Zhonghuan and Tongrun Equipment hitting the daily limit, and Sunshine Power reaching a new high during the session [1] - The real estate sector was also active, with stocks like Yucheng Development, Shanghai Lingang, and Shenzhen Zhenye A hitting the daily limit [1] - Conversely, the tourism and hotel sector underperformed, with Yunnan Tourism hitting the daily limit down, and Qujiang Cultural Tourism, Xiyu Tourism, and Guilin Tourism showing significant declines [1] - The banking sector experienced localized declines, with stocks such as Pudong Development Bank, Xiamen Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China falling [1]

近日，张家港农商银行与张家港市民政局联合召开银发经济推进会，围绕产品创新、服务升级、资金监 管等核心议题展开讨论，明确以"政银联动+专业赋能"模式，为港城老年群体打造全维度养老服务生 态。 会上，张家港市民政局相关负责人提出，一是联合成立专项协调班子，双方相关负责人牵头，抽调业务 骨干组成工作专班，建立定期会商、任务分解、进度督办机制，统筹推进产品研发、服务落地、专区建 设等工作，确保资源高效分配、问题快速解决；二是引入专业第三方机构，借助其在养老产业研究、金 融服务设计等领域的专业优势，为合作提供数据支撑与方案优化建议，提升养老服务与金融产品的科学 性、适配性；三是开展专项金融服务调研，聚焦港城老年人风险偏好、养老产业金融需求等，通过问 卷、访谈等形式摸清需求，为后续定制化金融产品研发、服务模式创新提供精准依据。 张家港农商银行表示，将全面响应民政局工作部署，配合做好班子组建与调研工作，立足金融服务本 源，将适老理念融入网点运营与产品设计，打造"金融+养老"融合服务新场景，让老年人享受到更便 捷、更安心的金融服务。 会上，双方就未来具体合作进行深入探讨，合力推动张家港养老服务战略计划，为港城银发经济发展设 ...