证 券 研 究 报 告 能源周报（20250428-20250504） OPEC+继续增产，本周油价下行 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 05 月 05 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 《能源周报（20250421-20250427）：准东煤制天然 气管道一标段正式开工》 2025-04-28 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 原油：OPEC+继续增产，本周油价下行。本周初，俄罗斯提出俄乌冲突在 5 月 停火三天释放了结束冲突的信号，且美俄双方的立场已经更加接近，有助于俄 乌冲突的结束。另一方面，本周，OPEC 在市场增产的预期下宣布了 6 月份增 产 41.1 万桶/日，目的是惩罚哈萨克斯坦和伊拉克等在配额上作弊的国家，与 此同时，沙特警告生产过剩的 ...

阿布扎比国家石油天然气公司（ADNOCGAS UH） 营收超预期；良好的利润率；重申 2025 财年息税折摊前利润指引 【研究报告 Table_Title】 2025 年 5 月 5 日 Scott Darling Catherine Li Scott.darling@htisec.com Catherine.dy.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 【（本报告为 Table_summary 2025 年】 5 月 5 日发布的英文报告的翻译版，以原稿为准） 要闻回顾以及最新动态 我们预计，阿布扎比国家石油天然气公司 2025 年第一季度的业绩将得到市场的积极评价，公司录得经调净收入为 12.7 亿美元，大幅超出一致预期，这主要得益于国内天然气业务的强劲盈利能力，以及在计划维护期间通过优化运营 和成本管理实现的效益提升。公司重申了其 2025 财年息税折摊前利润率指引（约为 35%），同时将资本支出指引从 原先的 30-35 亿美元下调至 30 亿美元，并对各业务板块的产量及单位利润指引进行了部分调整。总体而言，阿布扎 比国家石油天然气公司仍是我们中东地区研究覆盖范围内的首选标 ...

埃及央行表示，2024年7月至12月，由于天然气进口增加21亿美元，埃及的石油进口增加了53.3%，达 到97亿美元。 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 5 May 2025 伯克希尔·哈撒韦 Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A US) 60 周年伯克希尔超越周期的神话：持有股票犹如坐拥公司 Berkshire Hathaway's 60-Year Myth of Transcending Cycles: Holding Stocks is Like Owning the Company 3477 亿美元现金储备，耐心等待投资良机。自 1957 年创立巴菲特合伙基金以来，巴菲特始终秉持"持有股票如同拥 有公司"的投资哲学。在缺乏理想投资机会的情况下，伯克希尔在 2025 年一季度末持有的现金达到了创纪录的 3477 亿美元，占总资产近 30%，而股票投资则持续下降至 2637 亿美元。巴菲特表示"并不急于花掉这笔钱，预计在 5 年内 找到合适的投资机会"，并认为"找到好投资标的的概率会随着时间推移而上升"。尽管巴菲特的投资策略已从早期以 低廉价格收购合适公司，转向以合理价格买入优秀公司，但他寻找相对低估值的公司的核心原则从未改变（当然， 他也进行套利交易）。作为衡量股票市场估 ...

Group 1: Asian Currency Surge - The New Taiwan Dollar surged 4.6% against the US dollar, reaching a high of 29.64, the highest since June 2022, with a weekly appreciation of 5.5% [1] - The Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso also saw gains, with the Peso rising 0.3% to 55.465, the highest since September 2024 [1] - The offshore Chinese Yuan broke the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November, with a two-day increase of nearly 900 points [1] Group 2: Factors Behind Currency Movement - Key factors driving the rise in Asian currencies include the increasing probability of a US economic recession, which may lead to lower interest rates [3] - Exporters are anticipating further depreciation of the US dollar, prompting them to sell off their dollar holdings [3] - Positive economic fundamentals in Asia, such as record travel data from China, are expected to inject more growth momentum [3] - Increased foreign exchange hedging operations by Taiwanese life insurance companies are also contributing to the currency strength [3] Group 3: Dollar Index Trends - The US dollar index has dropped below the 100 mark, currently at 99.6386, with an 8% decline this year, raising questions about the potential onset of a new bear market [4][6] - Historical trends indicate that the dollar index has experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, with the current period potentially signaling a shift [6] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil opened down 5% due to OPEC+ announcing an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day [7][9] - Major investment banks have revised their oil price forecasts downward, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average Brent crude price of $60 per barrel for 2025 [9] - The market is anticipating an oversupply of oil, leading to a potential price war and increased volatility in the oil sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of energy security for China's economic and social development, highlighting the need for self-reliance in energy supply and the role of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) as a key player in ensuring energy security [3][4]. Group 1: Enhancing Domestic Supply Capacity - China is the world's largest energy producer and consumer, with projected 2024 domestic crude oil production of 213 million tons and consumption of 756 million tons, alongside natural gas production of 246.4 billion cubic meters and consumption of 426.05 billion cubic meters [4]. - CNPC is committed to increasing oil and gas exploration and production, aiming for over 200 million tons of oil and gas equivalent production in 2024, contributing significantly to national output [4]. - Major breakthroughs in oil and gas exploration are expected in key regions like Ordos and Tarim, with Daqing Oilfield achieving cumulative crude oil production of over 2.5 billion tons [4]. Group 2: Innovation in Technology and Development of Unconventional Resources - CNPC is focusing on the development of unconventional oil and gas resources, enhancing geological theories and exploration technologies [5]. - The company successfully launched the world's first deep coalbed methane well in 2023, marking a significant advancement in deep coalbed gas development [5]. - In 2024, CNPC plans to increase renewable energy capacity, with new wind and solar installations expected to reach 5.04 million kilowatts, generating 4.8 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity, a 120% increase [7]. Group 3: Strengthening International Energy Cooperation - CNPC is actively participating in global energy governance and enhancing its international operations, with oil and gas projects in over 120 countries [9]. - The company has produced over 1.45 billion tons of oil and gas equivalent overseas since 2000, with trade volumes exceeding 7.1 billion tons [9]. - CNPC aims to build a tight-knit energy cooperation community through initiatives like the Belt and Road Energy Cooperation Roundtable [10]. Group 4: Strengthening Energy Technology Innovation - The company prioritizes technological innovation as a core element for developing new productive forces, focusing on key areas such as oil and gas exploration and renewable energy [11]. - CNPC has achieved significant technological breakthroughs, including the development of a 12,000-meter automated drilling rig and advanced seismic exploration technologies [12][16]. - The company is also investing in emerging industries and future industries, including carbon capture and utilization technologies [14]. Group 5: Deepening System and Mechanism Reforms - CNPC is committed to deepening reforms to enhance its operational efficiency and governance, aiming to become a world-class energy enterprise [18]. - The company has implemented a series of reforms to optimize its organizational structure and improve operational efficiency [19]. - CNPC's strategic goals include high-quality development and compliance with legal and regulatory frameworks, ensuring sustainable growth [20].

Group 1 - The core message from Buffett's recent shareholder meeting emphasizes the potential devaluation of the US dollar and its impact on global asset prices, suggesting caution for high-valuation stocks in the A-share market [3] - Buffett's cash reserve has increased to $348 billion, indicating a strategy of waiting for investment opportunities over the next five years, which aligns with the current volatility in the A-share market [3] - A notable reduction in Buffett's stake in Apple by 13% reflects a strategy to maintain clarity during market exuberance, raising questions about the sustainability of recent gains in A-share technology stocks [3] Group 2 - Buffett's increasing investment in energy stocks, such as Occidental Petroleum and Chevron, suggests a strategy to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, indicating that traditional energy sectors may be undervalued compared to high-growth sectors [3] - Buffett expressed regret for not investing $100 billion in Japanese trading companies, highlighting the potential for high dividend yields in sectors like banking and insurance, which could be considered for long-term investment strategies in the A-share market [4] - Abel, Buffett's successor, noted the strong performance of Chinese stocks, indicating a potential internal strategy at Berkshire Hathaway to focus on the Chinese market, particularly in consumption and new energy sectors [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the stable and orderly production and operation of provincial state-owned enterprises in Shaanxi during the first quarter, with significant economic indicators showing improvement and growth [1][2] - Shaanxi provincial state-owned enterprises ranked fifth in operating income, sixth in total profit, tenth in total assets, eighth in owner's equity, third in return on net assets, and sixth in labor productivity among national provincial state-owned enterprises [1] - The total assets of provincial state-owned enterprises reached 3.41 trillion yuan, with owner's equity at 1.11 trillion yuan, and industrial output value at 200.75 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.7%, 4.8%, and 2.6% respectively [2] Group 2 - In the first quarter, Shaanxi provincial state-owned enterprises completed fixed asset investments of 25.2 billion yuan, achieving 25.2% of the assessment target, with industrial investment increasing by 52.8% and technological transformation investment rising by 15.8% [1] - The production of coal, self-produced crude oil, natural gas, crude steel, and automobiles increased by 7.4%, 1.2%, 36.6%, 17.3%, and 7.4% respectively, demonstrating the stabilizing role of provincial state-owned enterprises [1] - The enterprises actively engaged in both domestic and international markets, with notable increases in natural gas sales, construction projects in Belt and Road countries, and new international freight routes [2]

美国4月非农就业大幅好于预期，失业率稳定，纳指盘初涨0.89%，标普500指数涨0.98%，道琼斯指数 涨1.03%。英伟达涨超2%；苹果跌超3%，业绩勉强超预期，宣布千亿美元回购，但关税将导致成本增9 亿美元；亚马逊涨0.88%，Q1利润率再新高，但利润指引逊色，预警关税冲击；热门中概股多数走高， 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%，阿里巴巴涨超4%，拼多多涨超3%。Take-Two股价下跌10%，创2022年 11月以来最大单日跌幅。埃克森美孚上涨2%，其第一季度利润超预期。 ...

Group 1: Company News - Nvidia (NVDA.O) is adjusting its AI chip designs in response to U.S. export regulations and is restarting its custom chip development efforts [2] - Apple (AAPL.O) reported Q2 revenue exceeding Wall Street expectations, but service revenue was disappointing; CEO Tim Cook estimated tariffs will increase costs by $900 million [2] - Amazon (AMZN.O) exceeded market expectations for both Q1 revenue and profit, but its guidance for Q2 operating profit fell short of market expectations [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; February and March non-farm payroll numbers were revised down by 58,000 [3] - Following the non-farm data, former President Trump called for interest rate cuts [3] - Reports indicate that the U.S. is unwilling to grant Japan exemptions from tariffs on automobiles and steel, as well as a 10% reciprocal tariff exemption [3] Group 3: Sector Performance - Chevron (CVX.N) reported a 36% decline in Q1 EPS, amounting to $3.5 billion [3] - Airbnb (ABNB.O) forecasted Q2 revenue below expectations, citing weakened travel demand in the U.S. [3] - ExxonMobil (XOM.N) reported adjusted EPS for Q1 in line with estimates [3] - Airbnb (ABNB.O) has provided a second consecutive quarterly revenue outlook below expectations [3] - Shell (SHEL.N) reported Q1 profits that exceeded expectations [3]