｜2025年12月31日星期三｜ NO.1国金证券：白银具备阶段性更高的弹性 12月31日，华西证券（002926）指出，短期贵金属高波动或将持续。其中白银、铂金及钯金受限于流动 性与市场容量，面临的调整幅度可能较大，而黄金与有色金属虽受情绪共振波及，但预计跌幅相对可 控，并有望率先企稳。鉴于此，短期策略以防御为宜，待短期情绪宣泄完毕、市场企稳。 NO.3天风证券：铜价上涨，家电行业材料替代并非一蹴而就 12月31日，天风证券（601162）指出，2025年以来，铜价受海外政策驱动和供需错配等因素影响，涨幅 显著，但从历史经验来看，白电由于其良好的竞争格局，叠加家电龙头通过涨价、推新等方式实现成本 压力传导，盈利能力得以快速修复。我们认为短期保持观察，材料替代并非一蹴而就，长期建议关 注"铝代铜"在政策和成本催化下的实际落地情况。 12月31日，国金证券指出，展望2026，当市场对"AI未知"这一定价逻辑尚未改变时，缺乏秩序仍是黄金 的有利环境。当AI泡沫与黄金构成"哑铃"，黄金作为AI持仓的保险已实现了高光时刻的价值。白银作为 既有"类黄金"属性又与AI电力相关的叙事资产，具备阶段性更高的弹性。但一旦AI叙 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "ten consecutive days of gains" in the Shanghai Composite Index does not indicate a broad market rally but rather reflects a structural and localized market trend, driven by specific sectors and supported by monetary policy and foreign capital dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The index's rise is supported by three main factors: the central bank's signals to stabilize the market, continuous liquidity provision, and the appreciation of the RMB which alleviates foreign capital outflow pressures [1]. - Despite the index's performance, over 3,400 stocks have quietly declined, indicating a divergence where only a few sectors are experiencing significant gains while many small and mid-cap stocks are adjusting [2]. Group 2: Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is anticipated to have potential, but it is unlikely to be a straightforward profit-making scenario for all investors, as the path forward is expected to be bumpy [3]. - Key supporting factors for the market include the government's commitment to proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, alongside a continuous improvement in liquidity with net inflows observed over recent weeks [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For existing investors, it is advisable to optimize their portfolios by reducing exposure to high-flying stocks lacking fundamental support and maintaining positions in sectors aligned with industry trends, such as commercial aerospace and AI hardware [4]. - Investors looking to enter the market should consider a balanced "barbell" strategy, focusing on high-growth sectors while also including stable value stocks to mitigate volatility risks [5]. Group 4: Conclusion - The "ten consecutive days of gains" serves as a reflection of market resilience under policy support but also highlights the challenges of a differentiated market environment [6]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on the intrinsic value and growth logic of their holdings rather than fixating on index performance, maintaining a rational approach to investment decisions [6].

以下文章来源于时代财经APP ，作者何秀兰 导语：2025年港股强势复苏，2026年科技股将是重要投资主线之一。 2025 年，港股上演强势复苏大戏，以五年来最佳年度表现领跑全球主要资本市场，成为全球资本配置的 "香饽饽"。 从主要指数表现来看，截至 12 月 29 日，恒生指数全年涨近 28% ，恒生科技、恒生国企指数涨幅均超 21% ，核心指数表现在全球主要股指中 领跑，"估值洼地修复"行情贯穿全年。 随着指数的上涨， 2025 年港股的赚钱效应全面释放，年内超 400 只个股股价翻倍， 13 只个股涨幅超 10 倍，硬科技、生物医药、贵金属赛道 牛股云集。此外，基地锦标集团（ 08460.HK ）年内暴涨超 38 倍成 "股王"。 港股走强的背后，是资金、政策与制度的三重红利共振。南向资金作为 "压舱石"，年内净流入超 1.3 万亿元；制度层面，港交所于 5 月推出 "科 企专线"，允许硬科技与生物科技企业保密递表，叠加 18C 章上市通道高效落地，制度红利推动港股 IPO 市场强势回暖。截至 12 月 29 日，港 交所年内 IPO 合计募资近 2800 亿港元，同比增长 224.38% ，助推港交所 ...

最近，以白银为首的贵金属市场简直"杀疯了 "。 27号之前，白银一天就涨了10%，国内的铂金、钯金期货更是接连涨停。结果转眼到29号，贵金属市场 突然大幅跳水。 白银大跌9%，铂金、钯金暴跌14%，国内期货连续跌停，锡、铜等其他金属也跟着快速下跌。 这让我不禁想起1980年的白银泡沫，还有2011年的白银见顶。每一次，市场都在喊"这次不一样"，但每 一次，泡沫破裂的逻辑却出奇一致：当推动价格上涨的故事被戳破，雪崩就开始了。 而现在， 经过这一轮疯狂之后 ，这个故事也已经摇摇欲坠 , 泡沫的裂痕 也越来越明显 ： 从经验看，我们又回到了45年前那种"一盎司白银比一桶油还贵"的魔幻场景。 从技术指标看，白银已经严重超买，RSI远远超过70的阈值，冲到80以上；隐含波动率80%也逐渐接近 大宗商品见顶时破百的疯狂水平。 现实中，已经有小道消息说白银空头被"绞杀"，白银基金甚至出现"多杀多"的情况。 然而，很多人根本没意识到， 这其实是一场人为制造的泡沫。 翻看各种分析白银等贵金属的逻辑，基本都绕不开下面三点： 全球走向大宽松 地缘局势紧张 供给不足 可是你想过吗？这个"宽松"真的很大吗？作为"全球央行的央行"——美 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in silver prices have been extreme, with prices rising above $74 per ounce after a significant drop of 9% in the previous trading day [1] - Analysts attribute the initial drop to technical factors, including profit-taking and increased margin requirements, while the fundamental conditions supporting the rise, such as a weaker dollar and geopolitical uncertainties, remain intact [4] - The recent sell-off is characterized by profit-taking and year-end portfolio adjustments, but structural conditions supporting the price increase, such as supply shortages and stockpiling by countries, continue to exist [5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The increase in margin requirements by exchanges has forced some speculators to reduce their positions or liquidate, contributing to the volatility in the silver market [5] - Despite recent pullbacks, both gold and silver are expected to record their strongest annual performance since 1979, driven by strong central bank purchases and continuous inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [5] - A brokerage report indicates that the current rise in silver prices is shaped by real physical shortages, policy-driven supply constraints, and increased inventory concentration, suggesting a more permanent change in pricing and trading dynamics in the silver market [5]

Group 1: Market Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel and Meta rising over 1%, while Tesla fell over 1% and Apple, Nvidia, and Netflix experienced slight declines [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index opened high but closed down 0.26%, with Baidu up over 4% and NIO up over 3%, while JD.com fell nearly 2% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil futures settled down 0.22% at $57.95 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures settled down 0.03% at $61.92 per barrel [1] - Silver prices surged after a significant drop, with spot silver reaching $76.55 per ounce, up 6.16%, and New York silver at $76.459 per ounce, up 8.51% [1] - Gold prices reported at $4347.10 per ounce, with a 0.35% increase [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts indicated that the recent drop in precious metals was primarily due to technical factors, with profit-taking and stricter margin requirements contributing to the sell-off [5] - Despite recent pullbacks, gold and silver are expected to record their strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by strong global central bank purchases and continuous inflows into ETFs [5] - The World Silver Institute projected a supply-demand gap in the global silver market exceeding 100 million ounces by 2025, indicating a continued supply shortage [6] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed significant internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, with a 25 basis point cut bringing the target range to 3.50% to 3.75% [8] - Some officials expressed concerns about the risks of inflation and unemployment, indicating a cautious approach to further rate cuts [9] - The minutes also discussed the potential need for short-term Treasury purchases to manage reserve levels effectively [10]

华西证券首席经济学家刘郁表示：一是市场交易拥挤度过高。截至12月26日，沪银年内涨幅达 140.6%，远超沪金，金银比下探至55的历史低位，这些意味着市场短期获利盘丰厚，一旦情绪转弱， 多头踩踏不可避免；二是地缘政治溢价阶段性消退。 "有人在出货。"某金融机构投资部人士向上海证券报记者直言，此前银价涨势过猛，导致当前市场对后 市价格产生分歧。特别是临近年底，以基金公司为代表的金融机构面临结算压力，部分机构选择在高位 获利了结，对价格形成了压制。 "伦敦金2025年累计涨了60%以上，大型机构获利了结是迟早的事，就看规模有多大了。"星展银行高级 投资策略师邓志坚向上海证券报记者表示，由于接下来几日适逢假期，市场交易员减少、流动性相对不 足，这甚至可能引发做空机构趁机沽空，因为短期内缺乏足够的买方力量"护盘"。 2025年12月29日，全球贵金属市场经历了"惊魂24小时"。当日，连涨5个交易日的伦敦现货白银（下 称"伦敦银"）开盘冲击84美元/盎司的历史新高后"跳水"，到了亚洲交易时段尾盘进一步"跳水"，一度较 日内最高点狂泻约16%，收盘跌幅为9.08%。 这场突如其来的资金"大逃杀"席卷整个贵金属板块，广期所 ...

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have experienced the strongest monthly increase in nearly 40 years due to the EU's reversal of the 2035 ban on fuel vehicles, ongoing supply shortages, and rising demand for precious metals investment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Platinum and palladium are used in automotive exhaust purification catalysts, with prices significantly surging this year despite the long-term bearish outlook from the rise of electric vehicles [1][2]. - The EU's new policy is seen as a "booster" for platinum group metals, extending their application cycle in automotive catalysts by indefinitely relaxing the fuel vehicle ban and tightening emissions standards [1][2]. - As of December, platinum has risen 33% so far, marking the largest monthly increase since 1986, with a peak price of $2,478.50 per ounce and an expected annual increase of 146%, setting a new record [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Regulatory Factors - The inclusion of platinum and palladium in the U.S. critical minerals list has led to a tightening of regional physical market supplies, prompting companies to stockpile these metals defensively, which has further driven up prices [3]. - The market anticipates that details of U.S. policy will be clarified in January, which could impact supply and pricing dynamics [3]. - China's recent launch of platinum group metal futures contracts has attracted significant speculative capital, leading to adjustments in trading limits at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [3][4]. Group 3: China's Market Influence - As the world's second-largest economy and the largest consumer of platinum group metals, China heavily relies on imports of these metals, and the newly launched futures contracts serve as the first domestic price hedging tool [4]. - Analysts suggest that if China's demand for spot imports remains high, the key test for platinum group metal prices may occur after the U.S. policy is implemented [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the extreme volatility in silver prices, with significant fluctuations between sharp declines and rapid recoveries, influenced by technical factors and market conditions [2][5]. - Silver prices rebounded to over $74 per ounce after a previous drop of 9%, while gold also showed slight recovery after its largest decline in two months [2][5]. - Analysts attribute the recent sell-off to profit-taking and increased margin requirements, indicating that the fundamental conditions supporting the price increase, such as a weaker dollar and geopolitical uncertainties, remain intact [5][6]. Group 2 - Despite recent pullbacks, both gold and silver are expected to record their strongest annual performance since 1979, driven by strong central bank purchases and continuous inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [6]. - The silver market is experiencing a real physical shortage, with supply constraints and increased inventory concentration significantly influencing pricing, indicating a shift in how the silver market is priced and traded [6]. - The U.S. stock market showed volatility with major indices experiencing declines, while investors are focusing on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes for insights on future interest rate paths [7][8].

在创纪录的飙升和急剧下跌之后，由于交易者考虑芝加哥商品交易所的保证金增加和行业需求，白银价 格反弹。特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克警告称，飞涨的价格可能会影响特斯拉（TSLA）的车辆制造，而芝加 哥商品交易所集团（CME）提高了期货保证金。 在创纪录的飙升和急剧下跌之后，由于交易者考虑芝加哥商品交易所的保证金增加和行业需求，白银价 格反弹。特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克警告称，飞涨的价格可能会影响特斯拉（TSLA）的车辆制造，而芝加 哥商品交易所集团（CME）提高了期货保证金。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...