Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. During the Two Sessions, environmental protection restrictions have tightened, leading to a decline in the terminal consumption of iron ore. The daily average hot metal production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased week - on - week. The profitability of steel mills is poor, and industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, so the demand for iron ore continues to be weak. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports is at a low level, while the shipments of miners remain high. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival will increase. Overseas ore supply is rising, and domestic ore production is recovering, so the ore supply is increasing. In general, the demand for iron ore is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, putting pressure on iron ore prices. The relative positive factor is that the freight cost increase caused by the Middle East conflict supports the iron ore price. Under the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected that the iron ore price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Data Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 17,117.86, with a week - on - week increase of 25.90 and a year - on - year increase of 1,725.33 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,011.57, with a week - on - week decrease of 73.53 and a year - on - year decrease of 131.24 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,146.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.50 and a year - on - year increase of 269.40 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The global iron ore shipment volume is 3,340.74, with a week - on - week increase of 19.84 and a year - on - year increase of 1,005.84 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills is 227.59, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.69 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.40 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The 45 - port daily average ore - dispatching volume is 311.08, with a week - on - week increase of 12.60 and a year - on - year increase of 29.59 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 280.85, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.86 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.94 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 83.78, with a week - on - week increase of 26.88 and a year - on - year decrease of 14.67 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation and challenges facing China's coal industry, emphasizing the need for strategic shifts towards cleaner energy and resource security amid geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices [2][5][11]. Group 1: Energy Consumption and Coal's Role - In 2025, China's total energy consumption is projected to reach 6.17 billion tons of standard coal, with a 3.5% increase from the previous year. Coal will account for 51.4% of this total, highlighting its role as a critical energy "ballast" [2]. - However, the proportion of coal consumption is expected to decrease by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating a gradual shift towards alternative energy sources [2]. - By around 2028, coal consumption is anticipated to plateau, with annual consumption expected to fluctuate between 4.9 billion and 5.1 billion tons, necessitating a transition from expansion to value creation in the industry [5][6]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Coal Production - The relocation of coal production capacity to western regions like Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi has become a significant structural change, enhancing resource endowment and reducing production costs [4]. - By 2024, Xinjiang's raw coal output is expected to exceed 400 million tons, benefiting from improved safety and supply resilience due to better transportation channels [4]. Group 3: Energy Security and Geopolitical Context - The high dependence on imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, poses risks to energy security, making the development of domestic coal resources crucial for strategic stability [5]. - The article emphasizes that coal's role as a "ballast" is becoming increasingly valuable in the context of international geopolitical tensions [5]. Group 4: Industry Transformation Strategies - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the coal industry is urged to transition from being a fuel source to a raw material for modern coal chemical processes, aiming to produce high-value products like olefins and special fuels [6]. - The integration of coal with renewable energy and advanced chemicals is essential for fostering new production capabilities, while digitalization and smart mining technologies are expected to enhance efficiency and safety [6][9]. Group 5: Challenges in Smart Mining and Clean Utilization - Significant progress has been made in smart mining, with over 50% of coal mines achieving intelligent operations, but challenges remain, including data interoperability and a shortage of skilled personnel [8][9]. - The article highlights the importance of clean coal utilization, advocating for the development of technologies like CCUS and modern coal chemical industries to reduce emissions and enhance the value of coal [9]. Group 6: Critical Mineral Resources and Supply Security - The article addresses the challenges posed by fluctuating prices of key minerals like copper, aluminum, and silver, which are vital for the renewable energy sector [11]. - Strategies for securing industrial metal supplies include enhancing domestic exploration, promoting recycling, and diversifying international partnerships to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent successful bond issuances and listings facilitated by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, showcasing its role in supporting innovative companies and sustainable development projects in China. Group 1: Bond Issuances - Shenwan Hongyuan assisted China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. in issuing a technology innovation corporate bond of 2 billion yuan with a 3-year term and a coupon rate of 1.80% [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan helped China Shipbuilding Group Corporation issue a technology innovation corporate bond of 2 billion yuan, also with a 3-year term and a coupon rate of 1.71% [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan supported Shanghai State-owned Assets Management Co., Ltd. in issuing a corporate bond of 1 billion yuan with a 3-year term and a coupon rate of 1.68% [11] Group 2: Successful Listings - Beijing Haizhi Technology Group Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a share price of 27.06 HKD, raising 760 million HKD, facilitated by Shenwan Hongyuan as the sole sponsor [5] Group 3: Sustainable Development Bonds - Shenwan Hongyuan acted as a joint global coordinator for Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxin Mining Co., Ltd., successfully pricing and issuing 200 million USD in senior unsecured sustainable development bonds, marking the largest USD bond issuance in Inner Mongolia in nearly five years [8] Group 4: REITs Issuance - Shenwan Hongyuan assisted in the successful establishment of the "New Huangpu Dream City Rental Housing REITs" with a total issuance size of 1.1942 billion yuan, backed by Shanghai New Huangpu Industrial Holding Group Co., Ltd. [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call pertains to China Railway, focusing on its mining and infrastructure sectors. Core Industry Insights - **Mining Sector Performance**: The mining resources segment is expected to generate a net profit of approximately 2.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with potential for profit growth if resource prices remain high. The segment's revenue share is projected to approach 20% in 2025 [2][6]. - **Project Development Timeline**: The Fuxing Tun silver mine is still in the exploration phase, with a production timeline of 4-5 years, contributing no short-term profits [2][4]. - **Order Trends**: A decline in new orders in 2024 is expected to constrain revenue and profit expectations for 2026, with a focus on overseas and domestic new infrastructure projects [2][7]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Profitability Outlook**: If resource prices remain elevated, there is room for profit improvement in 2026. The annual profit level can be estimated based on semi-annual profits and price fluctuations [5][11]. - **Dividend Strategy**: A significant increase in the dividend payout ratio is anticipated for 2026, driven by mid-term dividends and buyback arrangements. The long-term strategy aims for steady annual increases in dividends [2][11]. Operational Insights - **Infrastructure Margins**: The gross margin for the core infrastructure business is currently low, with stricter assessments for investment projects. The company is focusing on revitalizing existing assets through quasi-REITs structures [3][15]. - **Cash Flow Management**: The goal is to maintain positive cash flow, with expectations leaning towards stability rather than significant improvement [11]. Strategic Initiatives - **New Business Growth**: The new business segment aims for an overall growth rate exceeding 200%, with substantial opportunities in water conservancy and hydropower projects [9]. - **International Expansion**: The company is tracking multiple mining resource projects and is cautious about expanding during high price cycles, focusing on maintaining a steady pace of project advancement [10]. Market Dynamics - **Commodity Price Impact**: The company faces pressures from local governments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo regarding profit-sharing due to rising copper prices, which may affect profit margins [10]. - **Investment Climate**: The overall investment climate remains stable, with no significant acceleration in bidding or project launches observed in early 2026 compared to previous years [6][7]. Miscellaneous - **Hydrogen Energy Involvement**: The company currently does not engage in hydrogen energy-related businesses [8]. - **REITs Development**: There are no mature assets suitable for direct REIT issuance, but the company is actively pursuing quasi-REIT projects [15]. - **Regional Order Trends**: Domestic orders are performing well in traditional economic regions, with no significant changes in project volumes in areas like Xinjiang [13][14].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.24%, losing over 600 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 0.38% and 0.62% respectively [1][2] - Major tech stocks, including Nvidia, AMD, ASML, Intel, and ARM, experienced declines of over 1%, while Broadcom rose over 5% with expectations of AI chip revenue exceeding $100 billion next year [2] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices saw a decline, with spot gold dropping 0.93% to $5,072.77 per ounce, and silver experiencing a significant drop of nearly 2% [3][4] - The London gold price fell by 0.89% and London silver by 1.82% [4] Oil Market - Crude oil prices surged, with WTI crude increasing by 5% to $78.43 per barrel and Brent crude rising over 3% to $84.02 per barrel [5] - Tensions in the Middle East escalated as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have struck a U.S. oil tanker, asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz [5][6] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending February 28 were recorded at 213,000, slightly below market expectations, indicating a stable labor market [7] - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose to 1.87 million, marking the largest increase this year [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is at 2.7%, with a 97.3% chance of maintaining current rates [7] - By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 12.5%, while the likelihood of maintaining rates remains at 87.3% [7]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Prices - Iran's air defense forces reportedly shot down a US F-15 fighter jet, which the US Central Command denied as unfounded [1][4][5] - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant increase in energy prices [1][7] - As of March 5, WTI crude oil rose by 3.80% to $77.50 per barrel, while ICE Brent crude increased by 2.95% to $83.80 per barrel, with European natural gas prices surging over 8% [1][7] Group 2: Market Reactions - US stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.66%, Nasdaq down 0.38%, and S&P 500 down 0.43% [2] - Gold and silver prices saw a sharp drop, with gold falling over 1% to $5082 per ounce and silver dropping nearly 2% to below $82 per ounce, influenced by Poland's central bank proposal to sell part of its gold reserves [2] - Consumer goods stocks also faced a downturn, with Walmart and Procter & Gamble both declining over 1.5% [3] Group 3: Military Developments - The US Central Command has requested additional intelligence personnel to support military operations against Iran, indicating a potential duration of at least 100 days for the conflict [6] - Iran's military actions included the use of heavy missiles targeting Israeli locations, highlighting the ongoing military escalation in the region [5][6] Group 4: Economic Implications - The rise in oil and gas prices is raising concerns about inflation, with warnings from the European Central Bank about potential economic downturns if the conflict persists [7] - The International Energy Agency noted that significant oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and any disruption could have severe consequences for global oil supply [8] - The IMF's managing director emphasized that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could negatively impact global energy prices and economic growth, urging policymakers to remain vigilant [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: March 5, 2026 [2] Spot Market - **Australia**: The latest price of the Platts 61 Index is 99.75, with a daily change of 0.45 and a weekly change of 3.35. Newman powder is at 747, down 2 from the previous day and up 2 for the week, with a discounted price of 798.7. PB powder is at 751, down 2 daily and up 2 weekly, with a discounted price of 798.4. Macfarlane powder is at 740, down 4 daily and unchanged weekly, with a discounted price of 808.4. Jinbuba powder is at 704, down 2 daily and up 2 weekly, with a discounted price of 793.6. Mixed powder is at 685, down 3 daily and 7 weekly, with a discounted price of 819.5. Super special powder is at 639, down 3 daily and unchanged weekly, with a discounted price of 855.7. Carbo powder is at 883, down 2 daily and up 5 weekly, with a discounted price of 816.9 [3]. - **Brazil**: Bahun powder is at 787, down 2 daily and up 2 weekly, with a discounted price of 790.6. Brazilian coarse IOC6 is at 711, down 2 daily and up 2 weekly, with a discounted price of 779.8. Brazilian coarse SSFG is at 716, down 2 daily and up 2 weekly [3]. - **Non - mainstream**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is at 851, down 2 daily and up 6 weekly, with a discounted price of 917.0. 61% Indian powder is at 693, down 2 daily. Karara concentrate powder is at 851, down 2 daily and up 4 weekly, with a discounted price of 868.6. Roy Hill powder is at 738, down 2 daily and up 2 weekly, with a discounted price of 812.4. KUMBA powder is at 810, down 2 daily and up 2 weekly, with a discounted price of 788.3. 57% Indian powder is at 574, down 3 daily and unchanged weekly. Atlas powder is at 680, down 3 daily and 7 weekly [3]. - **Others**: PB block/block premium is at 865, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly. Ukrainian pellet/pellet premium is at 851, down 2 daily and up 6 weekly. Tangshan iron concentrate powder is at 950, unchanged daily and up 6 weekly, with a discounted price of 837.0 [3]. Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange**: The latest price of i2701 is 717.5, down 2 daily and 3 weekly, with a monthly spread of 14.0 and a basis of 70.8, down 0.1 daily and up 5.1 weekly. i2605 is at 752.0, down 1.5 daily and up 3.5 weekly, with a monthly spread of - 34.5 and a basis of 36.3, down 0.6 daily and 1.4 weekly. i2609 is at 731.5, down 1.5 daily and 0.5 weekly, with a monthly spread of 20.5 and a basis of 56.8, down 0.6 daily and up 2.6 weekly [3]. - **Singapore Exchange**: FE01 is at 95.36, down 0.33 daily and up 1.13 weekly, with a monthly spread of 1.36 and a basis of - 22.1, down 2.1 daily and 0.8 weekly. FE05 is at 98.51, down 0.19 daily and up 2.41 weekly, with a monthly spread of - 3.15 and a basis of - 12.6, down 2.2 daily and 3.8 weekly. FE09 is at 96.72, down 0.29 daily and up 1.48 weekly, with a monthly spread of 1.79 and a basis of - 19.2, down 0.9 daily and 1.8 weekly [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic situation is complex, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy adjustments, and commodity price fluctuations. The Middle - East conflict has a significant impact on energy prices, and the economic data of various countries shows different trends. For example, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI have certain fluctuations, and the US economic expectations are generally optimistic but also face challenges [18][22]. - In the financial market, the bond market is affected by factors such as risk aversion and policy expectations, and the stock market shows different trends in different regions, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both experiencing declines [25][35]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different price trends. For example, metals such as aluminum and platinum have supply - demand changes, and energy prices are affected by geopolitical factors [6][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP: In Q4 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of GDP at constant prices was 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - PMI: In February 2026, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points. The S&P manufacturing PMI was 52.1, the service PMI was 56.7, and the comprehensive PMI was 55.4 [1][2]. - Social Financing and Money Supply: In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 7220.8 billion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 2.7%, 4.9%, and 9.0% respectively [1]. - CPI and PPI: In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of CPI was 0.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of PPI was - 1.4% [1]. - Investment and Consumption: In December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3.7% [1]. - Foreign Trade: In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import amounts were 6.60% and 5.70% respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Affected by the Spring Festival, China's February official manufacturing PMI decreased, non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly, and the comprehensive PMI output index decreased. The S&P manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMIs all increased [2]. - Multiple futures exchanges adjusted the trading margin and price limit of some contracts, such as fuel oil, crude oil, and methanol futures [2][3]. - On March 4, 29 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 40 had negative basis. The basis of Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, and Zhengzhou cotton was the largest, while that of butadiene rubber and apple was the smallest [4][5]. - The US imposed a maximum 143.3% temporary counter - subsidy tax on Indonesian photovoltaic cells and components, and Indonesia was preparing countermeasures [5]. - On March 4, the container shipping index (European line) futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange mostly rose, with the April contract having the largest increase [5]. 3.2.2 Metals - On March 3, Qatar Aluminum Company started an orderly shutdown, causing the London aluminum price to soar by more than 3.8% [6]. - The Thailand Futures Exchange suspended the online futures trading of silver and expanded the daily price limit [6]. - The global platinum market will have a supply shortage of 240,000 ounces in 2026, with total demand expected to decrease by 8% and total supply expected to increase by 2% [6]. - In January, the net gold purchase of global central banks was 5 tons, significantly less than the average of the past 12 months [7]. - As of March 4, the positions of the world's largest silver and gold ETFs decreased [8]. - On March 3, the copper and tin inventories in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the nickel, zinc, aluminum, and lead inventories decreased [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Indonesia reduced the nickel ore quota in 2026 by 30% compared with 2025, reformed the resource tax mechanism, and expected a domestic supply gap of 1.2 billion tons [9]. - Indonesia adjusted the nickel ore production plan to maintain supply - demand balance and support the nickel price [9]. - Indonesia's coal production target in 2026 is 733 million tons, and the coal output in January decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [9]. - A landslide occurred in a mining area in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on March 3, resulting in hundreds of people being buried [10]. - Vale expects the iron ore supply to slightly exceed demand by 2030, reaching 1.54 billion tons [11]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Due to the Middle - East situation, the EU may restart discussions on the Russian natural gas import ban, and the European natural gas price has soared by 75% this week [12]. - Thailand is one of the most vulnerable economies in Asia due to high energy import dependence. State - owned enterprises are under pressure to stabilize prices [12]. - Iraq is shutting down the production of its largest oil field due to the approaching exhaustion of oil storage space and may cut production by about 3 million barrels per day if the Holmuze crisis continues [12]. - The French economic minister said there is no risk of oil and gas shortage in the next few weeks and will not tolerate excessive fuel price increases [12]. - In the week ending February 27, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US was 3.475 million barrels, higher than expected [13]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In late February, most agricultural product prices in the circulation field rose, with cotton reaching a new high since June 2024, while most fertilizer and pesticide prices fell [14]. - US exporters sold 125,000 tons of corn to unknown buyers [15]. - Brazil's corn and soybean exports in March are expected to increase compared with the same period last year [15]. - Due to weather problems, Ukraine's rapeseed export price is expected to rise in 2026 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 4, the central bank conducted 40.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the same day was 369 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Important News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5 to 12, with a series of agendas and activities [17]. - The National Office of the State Council will hold a briefing on March 5 to interpret the Government Work Report [17]. - The spokesperson of the NPC said that the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft will be reviewed and approved, and policies such as expanding domestic demand and promoting the development of the private economy will be implemented [17]. - China's February official manufacturing and comprehensive PMIs decreased, while the non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly [18]. - China's February S&P manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMIs all increased [19]. - The former deputy governor of the central bank said that China's macro - policies in 2026 will be more active and moderately loose [19]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged all parties to stop military operations in the Holmuze Strait [20]. - Three departments announced tax - exemption policies for the China International Fair for Trade in Services from 2026 to 2027 [21]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the February China Commodity Price Index decreased slightly month - on - month but increased by 10.9% year - on - year [21]. - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or more, and China will send a special envoy to the Middle - East [21]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court's veto of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the US will provide insurance for ships in the Persian Gulf [22]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination may face obstacles [22]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the economic outlook is generally optimistic, but some regions' economic activities are flat or declining [22]. - The OECD said that the developed countries' government bond issuance scale will reach a record high of $18 trillion in 2026, and the bond market faces challenges [23]. - There are bond - related events such as overdue debts and bond redemptions of some companies [23]. - Some companies' credit ratings were adjusted [24]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China was strong, with the yields of interest - rate bonds falling, and the bond futures of most contracts rising [25]. - The exchange bond market had different trends for different bonds, and the real - estate and high - yield urban investment bond indexes rose slightly [26]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell [27]. - Most money - market interest rates showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [27][28]. - The yields of some financial bonds and treasury bonds were determined through bidding [29]. - European bond yields generally fell, while US bond yields rose [29][30]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On March 4, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted down [31]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities suggested pre - arranging South Korean government bonds as they will be included in the WGBI in April 2026, which is expected to bring $50 - 60 billion of passive funds [32]. - CITIC Securities analyzed the PPI cycle and pointed out that predicting PPI trends requires considering both domestic and foreign factors [32]. - Western Fixed - Income believes that the credit - bond market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in March, and suggests controlling duration and using leverage strategies [33]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 5, 207 bonds will be listed, 154 bonds will be issued, 58 bonds will be paid, and 140 bonds will pay principal and interest [34]. 3.4 Stock Market News - A - shares adjusted with reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all falling. The market focus shifted to food and fertilizer sectors, and the grid equipment and military equipment sectors rose [35]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all fell, with significant corrections in the oil and shipping sectors and general declines in technology stocks [35][36]. - FTSE Russell will adjust the FTSE China A50 Index, including China State Shipbuilding, Tianfu Communication, and Wanhua Chemical, with the adjustment taking effect on March 20, 2026 [36].

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) opened with a gain of 1.55%, indicating positive market sentiment towards the mining sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The mining ETF (561330) opened at 2.418 yuan, reflecting a strong start in the market [1] - Since its establishment on October 19, 2022, the ETF has achieved a return of 138.14% [1] - The ETF's one-month return stands at 4.26%, showcasing recent positive performance [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Key stocks within the mining ETF include: - Zijin Mining: up 1.32% - Luoyang Molybdenum: up 1.65% - Northern Rare Earth: up 1.23% - Huayou Cobalt: up 2.09% - Aluminum Corporation of China: up 2.77% - Ganfeng Lithium: up 2.23% - Shandong Gold: up 0.19% - Yunnan Aluminum: up 2.22% - Zhongjin Gold: up 0.99% - Tianqi Lithium: up 1.96% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The latest US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in February significantly exceeded expectations, indicating short - term economic resilience in the US, increased market risk appetite, and a weakening US dollar index [14][17][18]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49, showing a weakening economy, and there were issues such as low demand sub - items and the inability of upstream price increases to be effectively transmitted downstream [2][28]. - In the commodity market, prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and policy expectations, with different trends and outlooks [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US ADP employment in February was 63,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000. The US Senate failed to stop the president from using force, and the US Treasury Secretary may raise the universal tariff to 15% this week [10][11][12]. - Gold prices rebounded slightly but failed to recover the previous day's decline. The US economic data was better than expected, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was postponed to the second half of the year. The short - term monetary policy entered a wait - and - see stage, and the gold price lacked continuous upward momentum. The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be weak and volatile, with silver weaker than gold [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in February was 56.1, exceeding the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 53.8. The new order index was 58.6, higher than the previous value of 53.1. The US Treasury Secretary said the universal tariff might be raised to 15% this week, and the White House said the US military had attacked over 2,000 Iranian targets [14][15][16]. - The US economy shows short - term resilience, market risk appetite rises, and the US dollar index weakens. The US dollar is expected to decline in the short term [17][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, a 0.3% month - on - month decrease. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a 0.1% increase, and the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The schedule of the 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress's centralized interview activities was announced [20][21]. - The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower with a gap. The current dominant factor is the risk - aversion sentiment, and the stocks of the "Three Barrels of Oil" fluctuated significantly due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation. Attention should be paid to domestic policy efforts during the Two Sessions, and the national team may take measures to stabilize the market. It is recommended to operate the stock index long - strategy with a low position [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US ISM services PMI in February rose to 56.1, the strongest performance since mid - 2022. New orders grew strongly, the employment market improved, and the overall economic momentum increased significantly. The price pressure in the service industry eased. The White House said sending US ground troops to Iran was not currently in the plan, and a Fed governor said the Middle East situation had not changed the judgment on interest rate cuts [23][24][25]. - US economic data remained resilient, ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the service industry ISM showed an improvement in economic sentiment, boosting market risk appetite. The US stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate due to the high uncertainty of the short - term geopolitical conflict [26][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49, lower than the expected 49.1 and the previous value of 49.3. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 49.8 and the previous value of 49.4. The central bank conducted a 40.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 36.9 billion yuan on the day [28][29]. - The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut has increased, and the short - end varieties performed strongly. Although the weakening of the PMI is affected by seasonal factors, there are also problems such as low demand sub - items and the inability of upstream price increases to be effectively transmitted downstream. The bond market is expected to strengthen slightly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of imported inflation [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 4, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The phenomenon of shipping losses still exists, and traders are cautious in shipping. The demand side has no obvious signal of volume increase, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs, with frequent price - pressing and poor transaction conditions [31]. - Overseas coal prices have risen significantly due to the Middle East conflict, but the domestic market is calm, and the port trading is light. The domestic coal price is expected to be supported, but whether there is more upward elasticity needs to be observed [32]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company, Akora Resources, obtained a new mining license for its iron ore project in Madagascar [33]. - Iron ore prices continue to fluctuate. Under the pressure of terminal finished product inventory and orders, it is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. During the Two Sessions, environmental protection restrictions in some areas will relieve the pressure on finished products to some extent. The terminal is expected to resume production in mid - March, but the overall terminal orders are average. It is expected that the iron ore price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern [33]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Real estate regulations in many places have led to a significant increase in the consultation and visit volume. The steel price continues to fluctuate, with obvious fundamental suppression and strong cost - side support. Without unexpected policies, the steel price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile in the short term [34]. - It is recommended to adopt a volatile thinking and pay attention to potential undervalued opportunities [35]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In February, the actual arrival of imported soybeans in the domestic market was about 4.602 million tons. The international market has not changed much, and the CBOT soybeans are still strong due to the positive US biofuel policy. The domestic soybean meal is strongly volatile under cost support, but the supply and demand situation does not support continuous price increases [36]. - It is recommended to view the soybean meal trend with a volatile thinking and continue to pay attention to China's soybean procurement, Brazil's harvest and shipment, and domestic reserve and customs policies [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is expected to face a longer and more severe drought this year, and the MPOA estimates that the palm oil production in Malaysia in February decreased by 16.24% month - on - month [37]. - The oil market is volatile. The POGO spread has dropped to a two - year low, and the domestic biodiesel demand is expected to be supported. If the drought intensifies in the second half of the year and the production reduction caused by the nationalization of Indonesian plantations is realized, the palm oil price has upward potential. In the short term, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction in February and the supply - demand data in March [38]. - In the short term, attention should be paid to the data in February and the progress of the geopolitical conflict. If the diesel price remains high, the oil market price is expected to rise [39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of February 27, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 743,000 tons, an increase of 124,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons; the imported sorghum was 300,000 tons, an increase of 93,000 tons; and the imported barley was 639,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons [41]. - The corn futures and spot prices are oscillating strongly. The supply of corn is expected to gradually increase, and the low inventory in ports supports the price. The downstream demand is expected to increase, but there are also risks such as the concentrated sale of corn in the Northeast and the potential impact of wheat substitution. In the short term, it is recommended to trade according to the trend and not to chase the high price. In the long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rise [41][42]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The sugar production in Xinjiang in the 2025/2026 season was 796,000 tons, slightly higher than expected. In Guangxi, 3 sugar mills have completed the crushing process, and the progress is still slow. India may face a sugar supply shortage later this year, and the export to the Gulf market may decrease due to the Iran situation [43][44][45]. - The ICE raw sugar futures are fluctuating around 14 cents. The US - Iran conflict may have a limited impact on the sugar market. The domestic sugar market is in the peak production period, and the sales pressure is expected to increase. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be in a low - level oscillation [46][47]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium iron phosphate project with an investment of over 3 billion yuan was put into production. In February, Chile's lithium carbonate exports were 26,849 tons, with 22,380 tons exported to China. There are rumors of mine shutdowns in Yichun, and Zimbabwe has officially approved a ban on the export of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates [48][49][50]. - The lithium carbonate market is a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, the direct demand for lithium carbonate is still supported, but if the power demand recovery is less than expected, there may be order cuts in the mid - stream. It is recommended to consider gradually trying long positions if the price continues to fall [51][52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $19.21 per ton. The zinc price is restricted by both upward and downward factors. The LME inventory decreased by 125 tons to 95,300 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased. The zinc production in March is expected to increase, and the domestic fundamentals are under short - term pressure [53]. - It is recommended to wait and see from a unilateral perspective and adopt a medium - term positive arbitrage strategy from an internal - external perspective [54]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $49.27 per ton. The lead price rebounded from a low level due to the cost support of recycled lead, but it is also affected by the macro - situation. The social inventory of lead is expected to continue to decline in the next two weeks [55][56]. - It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips from a unilateral perspective and wait and see from a monthly spread perspective [56]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vale Base Metals is accelerating its IPO preparation. In February, Chile's copper exports to China decreased. The Middle East situation and the expected policy changes during the Two Sessions will affect the copper price. The domestic and overseas inventory situations also have an impact on the price [57][58]. - It is recommended to buy on dips from a unilateral perspective and wait and see from an arbitrage perspective [59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $130 per ton. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease in the short term but may face constraints in the long term. The domestic smelting profit is gradually recovering, and the downstream demand is gradually picking up [60][61][62]. - In the short term, the tin price is under pressure from the macro - situation and the high inventory. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be in a tight balance, and the price decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream receiving situation and the macro - situation [63]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Saudi Aramco plans to expand exports from Yanbu Port. The oil price increase has slowed down. The market is concerned about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If Saudi Aramco can maintain a high loading volume at Yanbu Port, it will partially solve the problem of stagnant oil exports, but the Houthi rebels' interference still exists [64]. - The short - term oil price will remain highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the situation changes [64]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG) - The current propane inventory is 73.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.8 million barrels from the previous week and 24.7 million barrels from the same period last year. The supply and demand of LPG have changed, and the market is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [65]. - Attention should be paid to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz [65]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has increased. The international oil price has risen due to the geopolitical conflict, driving up the asphalt price. The supply of asphalt is expected to remain low, and the price has an upward risk [66][67]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PX price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors. The PTA basis has strengthened, and the PX structure has also strengthened. The short - term PTA/PX prices are expected to continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the geopolitical situation [68][70][71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 77,900 tons to 1.0981 million tons on March 4, 2026. The international urea price is strong, and the domestic supply is abundant, while the demand is also increasing. The market is optimistic about the spring plowing season, but policy intervention may occur if the price rises too fast [72][73]. - It is recommended to stop profit on long positions and wait for a better entry point [74]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - From February 25 to March 4, the inventory of styrene in the East China main port increased. There are news of upstream device load reduction, and if the war continues until the end of April, the styrene inventory may bottom out. The overall trend is bullish, but attention should be paid to the escalation of the conflict and the spread of credit risks [75][76][77]. 2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - There are no Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, but the war risk level has reached its peak. The freight forwarders face high war surcharges and legal risks. The spot price of the European line has shown signs of differentiation, and the supply pressure will increase in the future. The EC2404 contract has a premium over the spot price, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on high prices [78][79][80].