当下，全球大国正在悄悄进行一场资源争夺战，而争夺的焦点是一种大多数普通人可能不太熟悉，却深刻影响着我们生活和国家安全的资源：稀土。 无论是你手中的智能手机，还是马路上日渐增多的电动汽车，乃至保卫国家安全的战斗机和导弹，都离不开这群特殊的金属元素。 那么，稀土到底是什么？为什么它会成为世界各大国争夺的焦点？这场争夺又将如何影响我们的未来？ 稀土其实并不是"土"，而是镧、铈、镨、钕等17种特殊金属元素的统称。 这些元素拥有独特的磁、光、电性能，虽然需求量通常不大，但却能显著改变产品的特性，因此被形象地称为"现代工业维生素"。 如今，全世界每六项新发明中，就有一项与稀土有关。 在我们日常生活中，稀土元素几乎无处不在。 你的智能手机震动功能依赖于钕磁铁，电子屏幕的鲜艳色彩来自铕和铽，电动汽车的驱动电机和动力电池同样离不开钕、镨等稀土元素。 而在军事和高端制造领域，稀土的地位更加关键。无论是战斗机发动机、航母、坦克、导弹，还是夜视设备、激光测距仪与雷达系统，它们的核心部件几乎 都依赖高纯度稀土材料。 没有稀土，就没有现代军工与高端制造。 中国稀土产业的发展经历了从无到有、从弱到强的艰辛历程。20世纪30年代，我国地质学 ...

Group 1: 15th Five-Year Plan Outlook - The primary direction for industrial structure adjustment during the 15th Five-Year Plan is transformation and upgrading, with continued support for technological innovation [1] - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with new product development and pricing models emerging in core cities [1] - The home appliance industry will focus on smart, green, and globalized policies, aligning with future manufacturing directions [1] - The construction industry will emphasize overseas expansion and smart construction [1] - The importance of strategic resources will increase, benefiting the prices of non-ferrous metals [1] - Cement and glass industries will face strict capacity controls, focusing on profit recovery rather than just revenue [1] - The chemical industry will see a shift towards replacing outdated capacity, with a positive outlook for chemical exports [1] - The new energy sector is expected to experience favorable supply-demand dynamics, with significant growth in wind and solar power installations [1] - The coal industry will see increased resource scarcity and improved performance as prices rise [1] - The technology sector will benefit from government subsidies for AI capabilities and applications [1] - The cultural industry may see relaxed regulations for overseas expansion, positively impacting supply-side recovery [1] Group 2: AI and Computing Sector Insights - Breakthroughs in computing power and AI applications are expected to lead to a surge in the sector by 2026, with companies achieving over 10% revenue from AI [2] - Despite short-term pressures from subsidy reductions, long-term support for domestic semiconductor replacements remains strong [2] - The internet and cloud computing sectors are experiencing a positive cycle of investment and operational efficiency, with a focus on global entertainment and self-consumption [2] - The telecommunications sector is concentrating on 6G and satellite internet development, with opportunities in the IDC supply chain [2] - E-commerce is currently in a phase of competition for existing market share, but AI products are expected to offset negative impacts from subsidy reductions [2] Group 3: Q3 Earnings Outlook - The reduction in national subsidies is expected to pressure earnings in light industry, consumer electronics, and home appliances [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to see continued improvement in Q3 earnings due to rising domestic metal prices [3] - The pharmaceutical sector is not expected to face severe impacts from tariff policies, contrary to some investor fears [3] - The agricultural sector is projected to see weak growth, particularly in pig prices, through Q1 2026 [3] - The light industry is under pressure from both overseas demand and domestic subsidy reductions, leading to continued earnings challenges [3] - The consumer electronics sector may experience marginal declines in growth following subsidy cuts [3] - The chemical industry is expected to achieve stable growth, with a target of over 5% annual increase in value added by 2025-2026 [3] - The food and beverage sector is facing weak demand, but market expectations are low, which may provide some support [3] - The military industry is projected to see overall revenue and earnings growth, with ongoing attention to the 15th Five-Year Plan's impact [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic importance of antimony, a rare metal used in various industries, particularly in high-performance weapon manufacturing, and its classification as a critical mineral by multiple countries [1][3] - In response to the increasing demand and tightening supply of antimony, the Chinese government has implemented export controls to safeguard its strategic reserves, leading to illegal smuggling attempts by criminal groups [2][3] Group 1: Antimony's Strategic Importance - Antimony is recognized as a strategic resource essential for national defense, technological advancement, and industrial upgrading, making it a key material for China's development [3] - The international market for antimony is experiencing supply constraints, resulting in rising prices and widening price differentials between domestic and international markets [2] Group 2: Illegal Smuggling Activities - Criminal groups are attempting to smuggle antimony out of China due to high profit margins, with recent operations leading to the arrest of multiple suspects and the seizure of significant quantities of antimony [2] - One particular smuggling operation involved a family-based criminal group coordinating with an overseas financier to illegally export high-purity antimony ingots [2] Group 3: Government Response and Public Involvement - The Chinese government, through national security agencies, is actively combating illegal smuggling of antimony and has encouraged public reporting of suspicious activities to enhance resource security [3]

据说，芝加哥最近不光风大，脑回路也挺飘，G7和欧盟在那儿开了个会，决定要对中国稀土动点"手术"：设下最低价格、加征关税、外加碳税。 这三板斧一口气抡下去，架势像是要"去中国化"，但动作看着更像是"自我了断"，你没看错，就在两个月前，他们还在焦急地敲中国的大门，求着多出口点 稀土。 如今突然翻脸，倒像是稀土没吃进肚里，先把自己喉咙划了一道，这事儿，真不是普通的"想不开"，而是战略焦虑下的连环误伤。 听起来像是"去风险"，但细看下来，更像是"去理智"，毕竟，中国目前占全球稀土供应量的80%以上，欧盟自己对外承认，他们95%的稀土都靠进口，且主 要来自中国。 在这个背景下，搞限价、搞加税，等于是在跳楼前先把安全网剪了，这种看似"自强"的政策，背后其实是西方长期在关键资源领域的被动和焦虑，一旦遇上 供应链风吹草动，就容易"头脑发热"。 西方的这套操作，问题不在于他们不该"寻求自主"，而在于他们根本"做不到"，先看资源，整个欧洲的稀土储量，占全球不足1%。 你要在地里"刨"出足够的稀土，光找矿就得几年，还不一定找得到，即使运气好，真找到了，开采和提炼又是一门高难度技术活。 欧盟目前既没有成熟的产业链，也缺乏高效的提纯能 ...

未来全球铜矿产量增长将显著收缩！ 随着全球第二大铜矿暂停生产，国际铜矿趋紧压力进一步加大。而针对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加 工费持续低位的问题，相关协会近日发出"反内卷"的明确信号。 这些行业供给频频扰动的信息，让市场对于未来金属铜供需本已偏紧的预期进一步增强。9月25日，沪铜市场 迎来78亿元资金流入，市场成交量大幅放大。而含"铜"量高的指数基金产品迎来大量资金流入，都让金属铜的 含"金"量越来越高。 "铜博士"狂飙 9月24日晚，美国矿业巨头自由港麦克莫兰公司对旗下印尼铜矿因为泥浆溃涌事故而宣布停产，并下调今年四 季度及明年全年铜销量预期。公司初步评估显示，第三季度铜和黄金销售指引，分别较2025年7月的预期降低 4%和6%。同时，公司预计2026年的铜和黄金产量可能较此前的估算骤降约35%。而该铜矿最早要到2027年才 能恢复事故前的生产水平。 这对于本来就供应紧张的金属铜市场来说，可谓雪上加霜。高盛分析师将此事件定性为"黑天鹅"，预计未来 12-15个月内造成50万吨的铜供应损失，并断言"铜价必须因此上涨"。 9月25日，沪铜主力合约2511收盘报价82710元/吨，涨幅3.40%。LME铜 ...

Group 1 - Tungsten prices have surged over 50% from their low points at the beginning of the year, with some products seeing nearly 100% annual increases, indicating a supply shortage in the short term [1][2][3] - As of September 9, 2025, major tungsten products have reached historical highs, with tungsten concentrate at 287,500 CNY/ton, APT at 412,500 CNY/ton, tungsten powder at 635 CNY/kg, and tungsten iron at 407,500 CNY/ton [2] - The first half of 2025 saw a 6.45% decrease in the total mining quota for tungsten concentrate, with a control indicator of 58,000 tons, reflecting ongoing supply constraints [3][5] Group 2 - The global demand for tungsten is increasing, driven by its strategic resource value, with a 2.1% year-on-year growth in tungsten consumption in China during the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The photovoltaic sector is expected to significantly boost tungsten demand, with projections indicating a 198% year-on-year increase, leading to a global demand exceeding 4,500 tons [4] - The aerospace and semiconductor industries are also driving demand for high-purity tungsten products, with the hard alloy market in China projected to reach 41.5 billion CNY by 2025, growing at 7.8% year-on-year [4][7] Group 3 - Current low inventory levels make the tungsten market sensitive to supply shortages, which could lead to significant price increases [8] - The mining sector is facing challenges with an operating rate below 35%, and the average tungsten ore grade has declined, increasing production costs [5][8] - The market outlook suggests that tungsten prices will remain in a range of 400,000 to 600,000 CNY/ton in the short term, with potential upward pressure due to supply constraints [6][8]

Core Insights - The discovery of a 2 million ton beryllium mine in Xinjiang represents a significant strategic resource for China, potentially quadrupling the known global reserves and providing access to both beryllium and uranium [1][12][26] - Beryllium, while crucial for high-tech industries, military applications, and aerospace, poses severe health and environmental risks due to its acute toxicity [3][10][27] Group 1: Strategic Importance of Beryllium - Beryllium is essential in high-end technology, military, aerospace, and nuclear energy sectors, with its properties making it irreplaceable in various applications [10][14][18] - The mine's uranium byproduct, with an average grade of 0.15%, can yield approximately 3,000 tons of uranium annually, supporting nuclear energy development in China [12][14] - The mine's discovery reduces China's dependency on foreign beryllium, which previously required over 800 tons of imports annually, with an 85% reliance on external sources [10][12] Group 2: Health and Environmental Risks - Beryllium's acute toxicity threshold is alarmingly low, with just 4 micrograms per cubic meter being lethal to aquatic life, highlighting the need for stringent safety measures [3][8] - Chronic beryllium disease (CBD) has a long latency period and can lead to irreversible lung damage, with historical data showing a 47% higher lung cancer mortality rate among workers exposed to beryllium [5][7] - Environmental contamination from beryllium is challenging to remediate, with potential pollution radii reaching 50 kilometers, necessitating highly controlled mining operations [8][24] Group 3: Safety and Environmental Management - Xinjiang plans to implement a fully enclosed mining system with strict safety protocols, including protective gear for workers and regular health monitoring [22][24] - The "zero-waste mine" initiative aims for comprehensive recycling of tailings, dust, and wastewater, minimizing environmental risks while generating economic benefits [24][28] - A robust monitoring system will be established to ensure immediate detection and response to any potential risks, safeguarding both health and the environment [24][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) in China, emphasizing its significance as the concluding year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025) and the need for strategic planning to address complex economic challenges and opportunities ahead [1][15]. Group 1: Development Environment - The political bureau meeting highlights that the development environment for the "15th Five-Year Plan" faces profound and complex changes, with both strategic opportunities and risks coexisting, and an increase in unpredictable factors [2][18]. - Compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing the competitiveness of China's manufacturing supply side while addressing demand-side issues such as insufficient effective demand [2][19]. Group 2: Key Tasks and Goals - The key tasks of the "15th Five-Year Plan" are summarized as "consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts," indicating a continuation and deepening of the previous plan's objectives [3][23]. - The economic growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is yet to be clearly defined, but it is expected to maintain a reasonable growth rate, with potential annual growth rates estimated between 4.8% and 5.0% [4][27]. Group 3: Innovation and Industry Development - "Innovation-driven" development is likely to be a key focus, with an emphasis on integrating technological and industrial innovation to cultivate globally competitive emerging pillar industries [5][35]. - The plan may prioritize sectors such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and marine economy, reflecting a shift towards new quality productivity [6][35]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Balance - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to optimize the supply-demand balance, addressing the discrepancies between actual and nominal growth rates observed during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7][19]. - It will promote the construction of a unified national market and optimize the supply-demand ratio in key industries to achieve dynamic balance [7][19]. Group 5: Investment in Human Capital - The plan emphasizes "investing in people," focusing on improving consumption contributions to growth, addressing demographic challenges, and enhancing social security mechanisms [8][19]. - Policies may include promoting service consumption and addressing youth employment issues, particularly for the 16-24 age group [8][19]. Group 6: Real Estate and Urban Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will shift from expanding urbanization to enhancing the quality of existing urban stock, with a focus on new models of real estate development [9][19]. - It will also prioritize urban infrastructure upgrades, including improvements in waste management and transportation systems [9][19]. Group 7: Reform and Opening Up - The plan is expected to deepen reforms, particularly in state-owned enterprise collaboration with private enterprises, and to optimize the fiscal system to encourage consumption [10][19]. - Expanding institutional openness will be a key direction, enhancing compatibility with external markets amid rising global protectionism [10][19]. Group 8: Strategic Resources and Regional Coordination - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on securing strategic resources and enhancing the resilience of supply chains, particularly in critical industries [11][19]. - Regional coordination will be emphasized, with initiatives aimed at fostering collaboration in technology and industry across different regions [12][19].

Core Viewpoint - The discovery of a significant zirconium ore deposit in Xinjiang, China, is expected to enhance the country's military capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign sources for this strategic material [1][5][9] Industry Summary - The newly discovered zirconium ore deposit contains 2 million tons, with a zircon content of 0.2%, ranking among the top three globally [5][7] - Zirconium is crucial for military applications, including nuclear submarines and aircraft engines, due to its high-temperature resistance and corrosion resistance [3][5][7] - The historical context highlights China's previous struggles with zirconium supply, which affected military projects and led to delays in nuclear submarine and aircraft engine development [5][9] Company Summary - The geological exploration team utilized advanced techniques such as satellite mapping and drone scanning to locate the zirconium deposit, demonstrating the effectiveness of modern exploration methods [7] - The establishment of a domestic zirconium base in Xinjiang is expected to strengthen China's military supply chain and reduce dependency on Western countries [7][9] - The availability of zirconium is anticipated to enhance the lifespan and precision of military equipment, including the upcoming 096 nuclear submarine and sixth-generation fighter jets [9]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commodity market has seen a surge in capital, reaching 778.3 billion yuan, the highest since 2014, with coking coal and lithium carbonate futures exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time, indicating increased speculative activity amid market volatility [1] - The A-share market's non-ferrous metal sector experienced a net capital outflow of 6.911 billion yuan on July 25, with significant sell-offs in Northern Rare Earth and leading companies like Tianqi Lithium and Zhongtung High-tech [5][6] - The strong rise of the US dollar, reaching a three-month high of 104.5, has led to a decline in the attractiveness of non-ferrous metals priced in dollars, causing widespread price drops across industrial metals [8][10] Group 2: Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting hedging strategies to manage raw material costs amid price volatility, such as a copper processing plant in Jiangsu locking in prices through futures contracts and reallocating 20% of production capacity to high-demand copper rods [2] - Lead-acid battery manufacturers are seizing low-price opportunities to stockpile lead, with LME lead inventories declining for five consecutive weeks, reflecting strong industry demand for bottom-fishing [2] Group 3: Price Movements - In the precious metals market, silver prices plummeted by 2.44% to $38.33 per ounce, while gold fell by 0.97% to $3,338 per ounce, driven by rising US Treasury yields and reduced industrial demand for silver [7] - Industrial metals faced significant declines, with tin dropping by $880 per ton to $34,140 due to increased LME inventories and reduced semiconductor orders, while nickel fell below $15,230 per ton amid rumors of increased Indonesian nickel exports [8] Group 4: Policy Impacts - The domestic futures market for lithium carbonate saw a dramatic increase, with main contracts hitting 80,520 yuan per ton, contrasting with a backdrop of declining international metal prices, highlighting the influence of policy interventions on market dynamics [4]