Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has implemented a series of measures to enhance fertilizer efficiency, aiming for a 43.3% utilization rate for major crops by 2025, which is a 3.1 percentage point increase from 2020 [1][2] Group 1: Fertilizer Utilization Improvement - The increase in fertilizer utilization rate is attributed to policy guidance, technological advancements, and optimized services [2] - By 2025, the coverage rate of soil testing and formula fertilization technology for major crops is expected to exceed 95% [2] - The promotion of new scientific fertilization products, technologies, and machinery is projected to cover over 26 million acres for rice side-deep fertilization by 2025, improving nitrogen fertilizer utilization by 2.1 percentage points [2] Group 2: Multi-faceted Approaches - The cumulative application of root nodule bacteria for soybean has reached nearly 8 million acres, reducing nitrogen fertilizer usage by an average of 0.5 kg per acre [2] - By 2025, the area for organic fertilizer application is expected to exceed 650 million acres, with pilot projects in green farming reducing chemical fertilizer use by 10% on average [2] - There are over 17,000 socialized scientific fertilization service organizations in the country, providing services for 250 million acres annually [2]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 元旦前猪价反弹明显，牛肉进口配额保障政策落地 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： TAblE_Author 钱浩] SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 郑颖欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520070001 021-38003632 zhengyingxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 高一岑 SAC 执证号：S0260525100002 021-38003780 gaoyicen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李雅琦 SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 021-68827265 liyaqi@gf.com.cn -4% 4% 11% 19% 26% 34% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasizes the importance of "Three Rural Issues" (agriculture, rural areas, and farmers) for the modernization of agriculture and rural revitalization, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan starting in 2026 [1][9]. Group 1: Agricultural Production and Food Security - Ensuring stable and safe supply of food and important agricultural products is a top priority for agricultural modernization and building a strong agricultural nation [2]. - The target for national grain production is to maintain over 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tons) by 2025, ensuring food security for the population [2]. - The meeting calls for the implementation of a new round of actions to enhance grain production capacity, focusing on improving agricultural production efficiency and quality [2][3]. Group 2: Technological Innovation in Agriculture - The conference highlights the need to strengthen key agricultural technologies and efficiently apply scientific achievements to enhance agricultural productivity [3]. - Innovations such as AI-powered laser weeding robots are being tested to improve efficiency and reduce environmental impact in agricultural practices [3]. - Emphasis is placed on integrating technology with agriculture to solve traditional production challenges and enhance productivity [3]. Group 3: Rural Income and Employment - Increasing farmers' income is a core goal of agricultural modernization, with policies aimed at stabilizing prices of important agricultural products [3][5]. - The rural income per capita is projected to reach 23,119 yuan in 2024, with a 6% year-on-year growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - The meeting proposes to enhance support for migrant workers and promote entrepreneurship to increase rural income sources [5][7]. Group 4: Poverty Alleviation and Rural Revitalization - Continuous consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements is essential for agricultural modernization and urban-rural integration [6]. - The meeting emphasizes the establishment of a long-term mechanism to prevent a return to poverty, with a focus on employment support and skill development [6][7]. - The importance of integrating various departments to monitor and adjust poverty alleviation efforts dynamically is highlighted [6]. Group 5: Policy and Reform Directions - The conference discusses the need for comprehensive reforms in rural areas, including extending land contracts and innovating financing mechanisms for rural development [8]. - Strengthening the leadership of the Party in "Three Rural Issues" is emphasized to drive progress in rural revitalization and agricultural modernization [9]. - The overall goal is to make agriculture a modern industry and improve living conditions in rural areas, ultimately leading to a wealthier and happier life for farmers [9].

- The report introduces a quantitative framework for market trend analysis, emphasizing the inherent attributes of assets and their lifecycle stages, categorized into five styles: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[6][7][10] - The framework prioritizes asset comparison using metrics such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (PB/SIZE), each tailored to specific lifecycle stages[7][10] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.45% since 2009, with notable positive excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017[17][20][18] - The report recommends three dominant styles for January 2026: expected growth, actual growth, and profitability, supported by metrics like Δgf, Δg, and ΔROE, all showing expansion trends[15][33][29] - Expected growth strategy selects industries with the highest analyst forecasted growth rates, achieving significant excess returns since 2019. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include automotive sales, home appliances, tungsten, emerging financial services, and lithium[37][39][36] - Actual growth strategy focuses on industries with the highest Δg and related factors (sue, sur, jor), showing strong long-term excess returns. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include photovoltaic equipment, electronic chemicals, lithium battery chemicals, aerospace military, and home appliances[39][40][36] - Profitability strategy targets industries with high ROE and low PB-ROE valuation residuals, with notable excess returns from 2016 to 2020. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include agriculture, liquor, power distribution equipment, non-dairy beverages, and network connection/tower setup[42][43][36] - Quality dividend strategy uses DP+ROE scoring to select industries, with significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include forestry/processing, boiler equipment, public transportation, fuel cells, and network connection/tower setup[45][46][36] - Value dividend strategy employs DP+BP scoring, achieving notable excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include security, daily chemicals, pet food, buses, and network connection/tower setup[48][50][36] - Bankruptcy value strategy selects industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores, showing strong excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include automotive sales, ceramics, cotton textiles, dyeing, and building decoration[52][53][36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market dynamics that promote capacity reduction, leading to a potential price turning point in Q2 2026, with long-term performance improvements anticipated for related stocks [3][43] - The structural growth trend in the post-cycle sector continues, with profits likely to gradually transmit downstream if the current round of pig capacity reduction proceeds smoothly, benefiting the animal health sector [3] - The planting chain shows a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, indicating favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth and price increase logic, with continuous recognition of domestic brands and sustained growth of leading companies [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs as of December 31 was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 10.38%, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 19.44 yuan/kg, up 2.21% week-on-week [12][51] - The supply side shows a widening price gap for fattened pigs, supporting price increases, while demand is boosted by consumption expectations during the New Year holiday [12][17] Poultry - The price of white feather broilers increased to 7.82 yuan/kg, up 6.39% week-on-week, and chick prices rose to 3.59 yuan/chick, up 1.7% week-on-week [17][51] - The supply of meat chickens has increased, leading to a more relaxed market supply, while demand has weakened due to some slaughterhouses reducing operations [17] Feed Sector - The prices of corn, wheat, and soybean meal have risen, with corn averaging 2351.57 yuan/ton, up 0.57% week-on-week, and soybean meal at 3172.29 yuan/ton, up 0.96% week-on-week [27][51] - Increased selling enthusiasm among farmers is noted, although the pace of supply remains slow [27] Major Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber futures price was 15605 yuan/ton as of December 31, down 0.29% week-on-week, with inventory levels increasing [38][51] - The current down cycle for sugar prices continues, with no significant recovery expected [39]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the agricultural and rural development in Qingyang during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of food security, poverty alleviation, and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices to support high-quality economic growth [5][14]. Summary by Sections Food Security Enhancement - The city has implemented the strategy of "storing grain in the ground and technology," leading to significant improvements in grain production capacity. A total of 3.2625 million acres of high-standard farmland have been established, and the comprehensive mechanization rate for major crops has reached 80.4% [6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, the grain sowing area reached 6.0111 million acres, exceeding the provincial target of 5.91 million acres, with a total grain production of 1.5 million tons [6]. Poverty Alleviation Achievements - Qingyang has successfully eradicated absolute poverty, with a poverty incidence rate dropping from 26.58% in 2013 to zero by 2020. The city has implemented various policies to prevent a return to poverty, with a total of 2.0802464 billion yuan allocated for poverty alleviation projects [7][8]. - The city has achieved a 100% insurance coverage rate for low-income and formerly impoverished populations, and significant improvements in rural infrastructure have been made [8]. Sustainable Agricultural Practices - The "three-dimensional dual-cycle" agricultural model promotes the recycling of waste between planting, breeding, and mushroom industries, enhancing resource support for agricultural development and reducing pollution [9][10]. - The livestock population has shown steady growth, with significant increases in the number of cattle, sheep, pigs, and chickens, alongside a remarkable 146% increase in edible mushroom production [10]. Expansion of Specialty Industries - The city is focusing on developing five major agricultural industry clusters, including beef, mutton, pork, chicken, and apples, with 389 agricultural industrialization leading enterprises established [11][12]. - The overall agricultural product processing rate has reached 63%, and the total output value of advantageous specialty industries has surpassed 50 billion yuan [12]. Rural Development Initiatives - The city has implemented various rural construction actions, achieving a sanitation toilet coverage rate of 94.24% and improving rural infrastructure significantly [13]. - The overall rural environment has improved, with increased public satisfaction and happiness among residents [13]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan," Qingyang aims to further enhance agricultural strength, rural beauty, and farmer prosperity, revitalizing the "East Long Grain Warehouse" [15].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, new productive forces are empowering various industries, particularly agriculture, through advanced technologies such as remote sensing satellites and big data, leading to a transformation in traditional agricultural practices [1] Group 1: Agricultural Innovation - The year saw significant advancements in the research and application of major crop varieties, including high-yield rice, drought-resistant wheat, and high-oil soybeans, with over 95% of crop varieties being independently bred in China [4][5] - Smart agricultural equipment is rapidly advancing, with high-end intelligent machinery narrowing the gap, and new energy agricultural equipment accelerating the transition to greener operations [6][7] - The innovation capacity in smart agriculture continues to improve, with 62 new intelligent equipment breakthroughs, including automated driving and precision feeding devices [8] Group 2: Talent Development and Training - The smart agriculture empowerment program has trained nearly 40 million people throughout the year, enhancing digital skills among farmers through various online courses [10] Group 3: Case Study - Dragon Fruit Production - In Guangxi Nanning, the application of new productive forces has transformed traditional dragon fruit cultivation into smart agriculture, improving production efficiency and product quality [11] - The use of LED lights for night-time flowering has shortened the production cycle by over 15 days, increasing yield by approximately 2000 jin per mu and enhancing fruit quality [12] - A comprehensive digital agricultural management system has been established, utilizing IoT sensors to collect real-time data for precise farming operations, allowing a couple to manage over 30 mu of land efficiently [13] - The dragon fruit farm has implemented full-chain standardization, ensuring quality control from planting to packaging, with each fruit receiving a "passport" for traceability [14][15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the successful transformation of a previously impoverished village in Inner Mongolia into a self-sustaining community through innovative agricultural practices and cooperative economic models [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The village implemented a "hugging cycle" model for collective economic development, focusing on "one piece of land, one stalk, and a group of sheep" [1][2] - The land consolidation strategy involved leasing over 4,000 acres from 170 households, generating an average annual income of approximately 1.2 million yuan [1] - A feed processing plant was established to utilize agricultural straw, reducing environmental impact and providing job opportunities for villagers [2] Group 2: Cooperative Models - A cooperative sheep farming model was created by uniting 14 villages, leading to stable income for farmers and employment for over 140 individuals, with monthly earnings reaching over 4,000 yuan for many [2] - The cooperative structure allows for resource sharing and efficient utilization, creating a "wealth chain" that benefits both the community and the environment [2] Group 3: Skills Training and Employment - The village provided skills training for various practical jobs, helping residents transition from dependency to self-sufficiency [3] - A "guaranteed dividend" mechanism was introduced to support those without skills or labor, enhancing their income through land leasing [3] Group 4: Sustainable Practices - The village has expanded its circular industrial chain by introducing new crops and processing facilities, increasing product value [3] - The integration of ecological farming practices, such as raising free-range chickens and goats, has diversified income sources and improved community wealth [3]

（来源：光明日报） 转自：光明日报 在东西横跨1600公里的陇原大地上，一场以科技为引擎的农业变革正悄然发生。 由甘肃省科协联合教育部门推动建成的62家科技小院，通过"产学研用"深度融合，推动传统农业向 标准化、品牌化、智慧化跃升。 深冬时节，张掖市甘州有机果蔬科技小院的示范基地内，一次别开生面的田间课堂正在进行。 "种有机蔬菜，不能打化学农药，不准施化肥，有虫子要用生物或者物理方法处理。"小院首席专 家、河西学院教授王勤礼带着学生，在大棚里讲解着有机种植的技术要点。 在科技小院专家的悉心指导下，从去年开始，种植户保红英和丈夫崔建民开始种植设施有机蔬 菜。"我们种了两个棚共6亩地，一年毛收入有十二三万元，比露地菜强多了。"崔建民话语里是满足。 200公里外，酒泉市肃州区西洞镇的戈壁滩上，来自四川绵阳的任洪晏和妻子正忙碌地采摘平 菇。"我们一家四口经营着5个菌棚，一年的纯收入能有25万元左右。"任洪晏说，来这里种菇也有十多 年了，这几年尝到了农业科技的甜头。 这份甜头，离不开酒泉食用菌科技小院。该小院积极探索"企业+基地+农户"的产业发展模式，带 动了周边300多户农户种植食用菌，每户每年增收2.5万元以上。 ...

Core Insights - The central theme of the news is the emphasis on the importance of "Three Rural Issues" (agriculture, rural areas, and farmers) in the context of China's modernization efforts, particularly as the country approaches the 14th Five-Year Plan starting in 2026 [1][23]. Group 1: Agricultural Modernization - The meeting highlighted the need to anchor agricultural modernization and promote comprehensive rural revitalization, with a focus on ensuring food security and increasing farmers' income [1][3]. - A target was set for national grain production to remain stable at over 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tons) by 2025, ensuring food security for the population [3][7]. - The integration of advanced agricultural technologies, such as AI and robotics, is seen as crucial for improving production efficiency and environmental sustainability [9][11]. Group 2: Farmer Income and Employment - The core goal of agricultural modernization is to increase farmers' income, with policies aimed at maintaining reasonable prices for key agricultural products [11][15]. - The meeting emphasized the importance of creating new income sources through the development of new industries and business models, particularly in the context of urbanization and labor transfer [15][19]. - A successful case was presented where local initiatives in Jiangxi province led to significant income increases for farmers through the development of specialty products and cooperative models [13][19]. Group 3: Poverty Alleviation and Support Mechanisms - The meeting underscored the need to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, ensuring that support mechanisms remain in place to prevent a return to poverty [15][19]. - A dynamic adjustment mechanism for poverty prevention was discussed, involving collaboration among various local departments to monitor and support vulnerable populations [16][19]. - The importance of continuous support and responsibility from the government was highlighted, ensuring that those who have escaped poverty are not left without assistance [19][21]. Group 4: Policy and Reform Initiatives - The meeting discussed the need for comprehensive reforms in rural areas, including extending land contracts and innovating financing mechanisms for rural development [21][23]. - The emphasis was placed on the role of local governments in driving rural revitalization and agricultural modernization, with a call for active engagement and practical efforts [23].