来源 | 华尔街见闻 白银价格突破45年纪录并预计将翻倍上涨，创造了大宗商品市场的罕见景象： 一盎司现货白银和期货白银的价格均超过了一桶原油。 贵金 属在避险需求与结构性供应紧张推动下持续走强，而原油市场则在供需格局再平衡过程中承压。 12月29日，截至17时20分，COMEX白银价格为74.79美元/盎司，现货白银价格为74.81美元/盎司，WTI原油为57.68美元/桶。 自1983 年WTI原油期货交易启动以来，白银价格持续高于原油的情形极为罕见，仅在2020年疫情期间短暂出现过两次。 白银价格的强劲上涨，主要得益于投资者和工业需求的双重驱动。 在工业应用方面，从太阳能电池板到电动汽车等清洁能源领域，对白银的 消耗量持续攀升，为其提供了坚实的长期需求支撑。 与此同时，全球原油市场面临供给过剩与需求结构转型的双重压力，2025年以来国际油价累计下跌21%，已回落至疫情复苏后的低位水平。 当前机构对白银未来走势的判断仍存分歧，但普遍认为原油价格短期内难有起色。 价格因素亦在重塑投资行为。在黄金价格突破每盎司4500美元后， 部分投资者转向白银这一更为便宜的"贵金属替代选项"。 印度近期白银 进口激增便是一例 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The spot gold price experienced a significant drop of 4.4%, closing at $4,331.78 after reaching a historical high of $4,549.69 [1] - In the European market, gold slightly rebounded to around $4,371 [1] Group 2: Silver and Other Precious Metals - Spot silver fell over 9%, while palladium dropped more than 15%, leading to a broad decline in the U.S. precious metals sector [2] - Harmony Gold fell over 8%, and Pan American Silver and Kinross Gold dropped more than 5% [2] - The decline in precious metals prices was triggered by the CME Group's announcement to raise margin requirements for various metal contracts [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Speculation - The CME Group's margin increase is part of a routine review to manage market volatility, effective from Monday [4] - Analysts noted that this move aims to reduce speculative activities in the market [4] - A rumor about a major bank facing a margin call in the silver futures market has also drawn significant attention [4] Group 4: Silver Price Volatility - The silver market is currently in a "high volatility mode," with supply shortages supporting prices while speculative sentiment amplifies risks [5] - Silver prices have surged nearly 150% this year, driven by supply constraints, strong industrial demand, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] Group 5: Diverging Analyst Opinions - Analysts have polarized views on the future of silver prices, with some warning of significant correction risks [8] - Optimists, including economist Peter Schiff, predict that silver prices could exceed $100 next year [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that after a significant rise in gold prices, a correction occurred on December 29, with London spot gold falling to $4,471 per ounce and New York futures dropping to $4,493 per ounce, while domestic futures closed at 1,007 yuan per gram [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent price correction is a normal market reaction following a rapid increase in gold prices, with profit-taking by investors ahead of the New Year holiday contributing to the downward pressure [1] - There is a general expectation of increased volatility in gold prices in the short term, with strong support anticipated in the range of $4,350 to $4,400 per ounce [1][4] Group 2 - Throughout the year, gold prices have shown a clear upward trend, surpassing the $3,000 and $4,000 thresholds, driven by ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [4] - The World Gold Council predicts that if economic growth slows and interest rates decline, gold prices will experience moderate increases, while severe global risks could lead to stronger price surges [4] - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to sustained demand from central banks for gold as a key asset, alongside factors such as geopolitical uncertainties and the weakening credibility of the US dollar and bonds [4]

黄金和白银在触及历史新高后重挫，贵金属领域这波"抛物线式"的疯涨被猛踩了一脚急刹车。 周一，现货黄金大跌超4%，并一度跌至4310美元附近，白银一度暴跌10%，创下2021年以来最差单日表现，此前一度触及每盎司80美元。 交易员神经紧绷，因为芝加哥商品交易所（CME）提高了白银期货的保证金要求，迫使高杠杆交易员要么追加现金，要么抛售头寸。 贵金属今年表现亮眼，在央行强劲买入和美元走软的背景下，黄金今年迄今已飙升67%。 市场规模小得多的白银是今年的明星表现者，随着其工业用途让市场聚焦于供应短缺，白银上涨了近150%。就连铜和铂金今年也飙升至历史新高。 但一位贵金属多头一直警告金银涨势可能出现逆转，他指出，上一次它们涨得这么快还是在1979年，随后价格在1980年见顶并崩盘。 "当行情绷得这么紧时，要小心，"彭博行业研究的高级大宗商品策略师Mike McGlone本月早些时候指出。"对于像我这样永远看涨黄金的人来说，最重要的 事情只有四个字：获利了结。" "它对电子和计算至关重要，"白银协会总裁兼首席执行官Michael DiRienzo指出，"几乎所有带有开关的东西都要用到它。" DiRienzo指出，白银已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp declines in silver and gold prices, with silver dropping approximately 7% and gold about 4%, are attributed to increased margin requirements by the CME, leading to a significant reduction in speculative sentiment in the precious metals market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of last week, gold has risen about 70% for the year, while silver has surged approximately 150%, with other precious metals like platinum and palladium also seeing increases over 100% [3]. - The gold-silver ratio has fallen from a high of 120 in 2020 to around 60, primarily due to a "short squeeze" phenomenon [3][4]. - The CME's decision to raise margin requirements for silver futures has historically led to price corrections, as seen in 2011 when silver prices plummeted nearly 30% within three weeks after similar margin hikes [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that 2026 may be characterized by increased volatility in precious metals prices, particularly silver, rather than a repeat of the explosive growth seen in 2025 [6]. - Key price levels to watch for silver include $60 and $70, with significant attention on the $50 mark if prices decline too steeply [6]. - The long-term outlook for silver remains positive due to structural scarcity and its dual role as both a financial hedge and an industrial material, particularly in technology sectors [7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Silver demand has outstripped supply for five consecutive years, with production unable to keep pace due to various constraints, including declining ore grades and environmental regulations [7][8]. - Geopolitical concerns, such as potential U.S. tariffs on silver, have exacerbated supply issues, leading to significant stockpiling and a depletion of inventories in key markets [8]. - The market for silver is less liquid than that for gold, with a total value of approximately $65 billion in London compared to nearly $13 trillion for gold, highlighting the potential for rapid price movements [8]. Group 4: Central Bank and Investor Behavior - Central banks are expected to continue their high demand for gold, with projections suggesting an average monthly purchase of about 70 tons in 2026, significantly higher than previous years [10]. - Emerging market central banks are strategically increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a shift in geopolitical risk perception following events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict [10]. - The current low allocation of gold in U.S. private investment portfolios suggests potential upward pressure on gold prices if this allocation increases [11].

临近年末，市场交投清淡，全球主要股市进入窄幅盘整阶段，投资者正静待美联储12月货币政策会议纪要。金属市场呈现分化格局，黄金、白 银、铂金、铜、镍等上涨，钯金盘中触及跌停。 12月30日，美股指期货基本持平，欧股指多数下跌，亚股指涨跌互现。美元、美债基本持平，在岸人民币突破7关口。金属分化，白银反弹4%收 复部分失地，现货黄金涨超1%，伦铜涨近3%，钯金触及跌停。原油小幅回调，加密货币小幅上涨。 美联储12月货币政策会议纪要将于北京时间12月31日凌晨3点公布，此次会议纪要将为市场提供关于2026年利率路径的关键指引。在12月10日的议 息会议上，美联储决定降息25个基点，但内部意见呈现分化：两位政策制定者主张维持利率不变，另一位则支持更大幅度的50个基点降息。 根据12月发布的点阵图显示，多数政策制定者预计2026年仅会进行一次25个基点的降息，但个别成员的预测存在显著差异，反映出对经济前景判 断的不确定性。 核心市场走势如下： 道指期货涨0.01%，标普500指数期货涨0.01%，纳指期货跌0.02% 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘跌0.1%，德国DAX指数跌0.1%，英国富时100指数涨0.1%，法国CAC 40 ...

回顾 2025 年，宏观和地缘政治事件叠加供需错配、市场情绪等驱动贵金属全年呈现"狂飙"走势 超越大多数机构年初的预期，铂钯在供需基本面较强的背景下涨势"突出"。12 月以来，经过短期的 "休整"后以白银和铂金等为代表的贵金属商品启动了新一轮"凶猛"的涨价潮，长期的紧缺、强劲 的需求和相对有限的库存造成短期的供需错配为价格提供支撑，投资者的关注度持续升温，资金流入 加速行情陡峭"攀升"。国际铂金现货价格自月初的 1664 美元/盎司的位置大幅拉升并突破 2008 年的 历史前高最高至 2478.5 美元/盎司，波动幅度接近 50%。11 月底在广州期货交易所上市的铂金期货在 不满 1 个月的情况下，主力 2606 合约多个交易日出现涨停并传导至 2026 年 8 月、10 月和 12 月到 期的合约，成交和持仓量不断上升，同时呈现出相对外盘较高的溢价。钯金走势则以跟随铂金波动为 主上涨动力相对更弱，价格自月内低点拉升至 1959.7 美元/盎司，振幅约 37.6%低于铂金，广期所钯 金期货多次在盘中交易时间内出现涨停后不久即开板的情况。本轮的"猛烈"的上涨行情最终在年内 最后一周的首个交易日终结，短期急剧的上 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver futures recording the largest single-day drop in nearly five years, as COMEX gold futures fell by 4.45% and COMEX silver futures dropped by 7.2% on December 29 [1][3] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by 65%, while silver prices have increased by 147%, driven by rising investor demand and supply shortages [3] - The industrial demand for silver is continuously increasing, supported by its excellent conductivity and thermal properties, making it a key metal in the global economic transition, particularly in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries [3] Group 2 - Tesla CEO Elon Musk expressed concerns about the rising silver prices, indicating that it could negatively impact many industrial processes that rely on silver [4] - Market speculation arose regarding the potential end of the record surge in silver prices, with analysts suggesting that the cyclical peak of silver might dampen retail traders' speculative enthusiasm, potentially lowering the entire metals sector [4]

Moneyfarm的分析师Richard Flax在一份报告中说，美国经济预计将在2026年实现稳健增长。他说，对人 工智能行业的大量投资、美联储降低利率以及政府的支持可能会促进经济增长。 另外，市场对地缘局势的担忧情绪有所回升，也吸引避险买盘支撑银价。当地时间12月29日，央视记者 获悉，美国总统特朗普在采访中表示，美军在委内瑞拉行动中摧毁了一座"大型设施"。但他没有提供有 关此次行动的更多细节。 同日，俄罗斯指责乌克兰对俄罗斯总统府在俄罗斯北部的住宅发动无人机袭击，这促使莫斯科重新考虑 其在和平谈判中的立场。 日图来看，纸白银昨日暴跌，今日价格持续回温上涨，目前涨超4%，布林带向上开口，表明目前处于 上涨轨道，一小时DMI显示警惕回调风险，MACD向零线倾斜，表明目前上涨动能减弱，纸白银走势下 方关注14.50-15.50支撑，上方关注16.50-17.00阻力。 今日周二(12月30日)欧盘时段，纸白银目前交投于16.694一线上方，今日开盘于16.071元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报16.809元/克，上涨4.38%，最高触及16.891元/克，最低下探15.947元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving nine consecutive days of gains, indicating strong market enthusiasm for buying [1][3] - The market is expected to see continued improvement in liquidity and trading activity due to year-end and early-year reallocation demands and capital inflows [1] - Short-term market focus is on the selection of the new Federal Reserve chair and the implementation of domestic monetary and fiscal policies [1][2] Group 2 - On Monday, the A-share market faced resistance after a rise, with sectors such as banking, petrochemicals, wind power equipment, and software development performing well, while sectors like power metals, pharmaceutical commerce, batteries, and electricity lagged [2] - The domestic monetary policy is anticipated to maintain a stance of "moderate easing," with expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, contributing to a more relaxed global liquidity environment [2] - The recent strengthening of the RMB has increased the attractiveness of RMB assets, likely aiding in capital inflows [2] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown structural trends, with over 3,000 stocks declining for two consecutive trading days, indicating a need for investors to pay attention to the sustainability of hot themes and the rotation rhythm among sectors [3] - Despite the upward trend in the index, there is a caution against potential technical adjustments following continuous gains, but the upcoming "spring rally" may present thematic investment opportunities [3] - In the medium term, as recent domestic and international macro events settle, macro factors' influence on the market is expected to diminish, with valuation and liquidity becoming the dominant factors [3]