环球市场动态 美 国 关 税 通 胀 见 顶 时 间 后 移 股 票 周三亚太股市个别发展，MSCI 不 排除将印度尼西亚降级至前沿市 场，拖累股市大跌 7.3%。港股高开 高走，A 股涨跌不一。奢侈品股受 压，欧股下跌。美联储一如预期维 持利率不变，美股个别发展，变动 不大。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普警告伊朗尽快达成核协议， 美伊局势紧张，周三纽约期油升至 四个月高位，国际金银价格续创新 高；贝森特关于美国绝没有入市干 预日元的表态也为美元带来支撑， 在美联储维持利率不变之后美元指 数触及日内高点。 固 定 收 益 美联储维持利率不变在 3.50%– 3.75%。美国国债持稳，收益率曲线 略微走平。声明称就业风险减弱， 并不急于进一步降息。日本 40 年 期国债拍卖结果较好推动市场企 稳。贝森特否认将干预日元汇率。 亚洲债市企稳，债券利差普遍收窄。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 1 月 29 日 ▪ 美联储 2026 年 1 月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预期。议息会议声明和鲍威尔发言均表示美国失业 率出 ...

【华福商社】LVMH集团2025年四季报解读：中国市场成为业绩修复主要引擎 集团在25Q4收入227亿欧元，实现有机营收1%增长，与三季度持平。 全年总营收为808.1亿欧元，下滑1%，基本符合市场预期。 【华福商社】LVMH集团2025年四季报解读：中国市场成为业绩修复主要引擎 集团在25Q4收入227亿欧元，实现有机营收1%增长，与三季度持平。 全年总营收为808.1亿欧元，下滑1%，基本符合市场预期。 # 核心皮具时装承压，珠宝与精品零售表现亮眼 皮具与时装-3%（环比-1pct），其中LV表现略优于部门平均水平，Loro Piana继续保持高增长。 < 葡萄酒与烈酒业务-9%（环比-10pct），其中香槟仍然保持韧性，但干邑业务仍因中美业务市场需求疲软以及贸易 环境影响而承压。 # 中国市场成为业绩修复主要引擎，欧洲市场仍显颓势 亚洲市场（不包括日本）+1%（环比-1pct）。 其中管理层表示中国市场在三季度出现改善后，四季度趋势保持稳定。 # 本地消费继续回暖，出境游消费也有所回升，为集团整体业绩起到关键托底作用。 美国市场+1%（环比-2pct），本地消费持续保持稳定。 欧洲市场-2%（环比持平） ...

一、市场: ●1月29日收盘：联储按兵不动 标普指数小幅收跌 北京时间1月29日凌晨，美股收盘涨跌不一，标普500指数小幅收跌，美国国债收益率走高。美联储结束2026年首次议息会议，维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75% 区间不变，上调经济增长评估。市场预计在鲍威尔五月任期结束前，美联储都将维持利率不变。芯片股受积极财报提振早盘上涨，英伟达等普遍走高，但涨 势未扩散至芯片股以外，标普500指数最终转跌。此外，微软等科技巨头财报即将出炉，非科技板块中，星巴克股价微涨，其首季营收超预期但盈利未达预 期。 ●1月29日美股成交额前20：Carvana被指人为虚增利润，股价重挫14% 周三美股成交额前20的公司表现各异。英伟达收高1.58%，芯片板块普涨，有报道称其和亚马逊或参与OpenAI融资轮；特斯拉收跌0.10%，盘后涨近4%，公 布第四季度多项财务数据；美光收高6.10%，存储概念股普涨，其与新加坡胜科工业扩大购电协议；苹果收跌0.71%，iPhone Air市场接受度低，周四将发布 财报；英特尔收高11.04%；闪迪收高9.60%；Carvana收跌14.17%，被指人为虚增利润；Palantir收跌5.04 ...

欧洲股市下跌，法国LVMH业绩疲软打击了市场对奢侈品行业复苏的预期，而美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 对伊朗的最新警告也令风险偏好承压。 斯托克欧洲600指数收盘下跌0.8%。奢侈品股跌幅居前，LVMH公布时装和皮具部门销售降幅超预期 后，股价重挫7.9%。 银行股同样走低。德意志银行股价下跌2%，该行办公场所遭到德国当局突击搜查，搜查与涉及员工的 洗钱调查有关。 能源板块涨幅居前，美国与伊朗之间紧张局势持续，推动油价走高。 个股方面，阿斯麦抹去早前涨幅，公司管理层电话会议引发分析师对公司能否尽快扩产以满足设备需求 的疑问。 继上周欧美贸易紧张局势加剧冲击市场情绪后，欧洲股市走势震荡。市场目前聚焦企业财报季，花旗集 团的一项指数显示，分析师已在进入财报季之际下调盈利预期。 瑞士百达财富管理表示，随着美元走弱提升欧洲及其他地区股票的相对吸引力，投资者应当降低对美国 股票的敞口。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 欧洲股市下跌，法国LVMH业绩疲软打击了市场对奢侈品行业复苏的预期，而美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 对伊朗的最新警告也令风险偏好承压。 斯托克欧洲600指数收盘下跌0.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for LVMH, but it implies a cautious optimism regarding the company's performance and strategies moving forward [7]. Core Insights - LVMH's revenue in 2025 was resilient at €80.8 billion, with an organic growth rate of -1% year-on-year, but profits were significantly impacted by foreign exchange headwinds and pressures in high-margin sectors, leading to a 9% decline in operating profit to €17.8 billion [8][9]. - The company experienced a notable divergence in performance across its segments, with Watches & Jewelry and Selective Retailing showing strong growth, while Fashion & Leather Goods and Wines & Spirits faced challenges [9][10]. - Management emphasized the importance of monitoring foreign exchange impacts on operational performance and profit sensitivity, indicating a strategic focus on cost discipline and selective investments to maintain cash flow and improve operational quality [8][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - LVMH achieved €80.8 billion in revenue for 2025, with a reported decline of 5% year-on-year, primarily due to foreign exchange effects [8][11]. - The organic growth rate improved in the second half of 2025, reaching +1% in Q4, after a -3% decline in the first half [8][9]. Segment Analysis - In Q4 2025, organic revenue growth rates were as follows: Watches & Jewelry +8%, Selective Retailing +7%, Perfumes & Cosmetics -1%, Fashion & Leather Goods -3%, and Wines & Spirits -9% [9][10]. - For the full year, Selective Retailing grew by 4%, driven by Sephora's strong performance, while Watches & Jewelry saw a 3% increase, largely supported by the Japanese market [9][10]. Brand Performance - Core brands such as LV, Dior, and Tiffany showed varying strategies: LV maintained stability through new product launches and limited editions, Dior focused on aggressive marketing and product expansion, while Tiffany is in a transformation phase to enhance its brand and product mix [10][12]. - The report highlights the importance of high-end demand, noting a structural split in customer sensitivity to economic conditions, with ultra-high-net-worth individuals being more stable compared to the broader high-income segment [12][13]. Geographic Insights - LVMH's revenue mix remained balanced across regions, with the U.S., Europe, and Asia (excluding Japan) each contributing 26% to total revenue, while Japan's share decreased to 8% [11]. - The report notes that the U.S. and Europe showed stable growth patterns, while Japan experienced a significant decline of 12% in organic growth for FY25 [11]. Future Outlook - Management expressed a medium-to-long-term optimistic outlook, citing rising global living standards as a support for high-quality product demand, but acknowledged short-term uncertainties due to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors [7][13]. - The controlling Arnault family plans to increase its stake in the company, reflecting confidence in LVMH's long-term value creation capabilities [13].

Market Overview - Technology stocks have driven U.S. markets higher for the second consecutive day, with investors positioning ahead of major tech earnings and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [2][25] - As of the latest update, Dow futures rose 0.04%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.37%, and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.95% [3][26] - The MSCI global stock index is hovering near record highs, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures approaching last October's record [3][26] - The overall optimistic market sentiment is attributed to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates, with pricing indicating potential rate cuts in 2026 [3][26][27] Sector Performance - The technology sector is expected to continue driving market gains, with UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Officer suggesting that the current rebound is not over yet [4][27] - Semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML reported a significant increase in orders, leading to a 7.5% rise in its stock price [3][26] - Asian tech stocks also saw gains, influenced by SoftBank's discussions to invest $30 billion in OpenAI [3][26] Individual Stock Movements - Seagate Technology shares rose over 10%, Western Digital increased by 7.5%, SanDisk gained 5.2%, and Micron Technology saw a nearly 4% rise in pre-market trading [12][33] - Starbucks stock jumped 10% after reporting first-quarter net revenue exceeding expectations [34] - Texas Instruments shares rose over 7% with Q4 revenue and Q1 guidance surpassing forecasts [35] - AT&T's stock increased by 3.4% following a higher-than-expected annual earnings forecast [36] - Intel shares continued to rise by 4.8%, reportedly due to Nvidia's plans to shift some chip production to Intel [37] - C3.ai stock surged over 11% as it discusses a merger with Automation Anywhere [38] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.25% to 96.16 after previously hitting a four-year low [31] - Gold prices surged to over $5,280 per ounce, reflecting increased geopolitical and economic risks [10][32] - Brent crude oil futures reached a four-month high, slightly above $68 per barrel [32]

Core Viewpoint - LVMH reported its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results, indicating pressure on core business operations due to weak consumer markets and global economic uncertainty [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, LVMH's core business in Fashion and Leather Goods saw organic revenue decline by 3%, accelerating from the previous quarter and exceeding market expectations [3]. - For the full year 2025, organic revenue in the Fashion and Leather Goods category decreased by 5% [3]. - Overall, LVMH's total revenue for 2025 was approximately €80.81 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of about 4.6%, with an annual organic revenue drop of 1% [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak demand in major consumer markets, changes in customer demographics, and macroeconomic uncertainties, limiting short-term growth flexibility for the group [5]. - Reports indicate that consumer confidence in the global luxury market is gradually recovering, suggesting that the industry may have passed its most challenging phase, with some brands entering an early recovery stage [5]. - Analysts note a shift in consumer behavior from "material possession" to "experiential consumption," leading to higher demands for creativity, craftsmanship, and emotional value in products, which may prompt a business realignment in the luxury sector [5].

格隆汇1月28日｜摩根大通分析师在研报中指出，LVMH集团2025年第四季度及全年业绩表现虽参差不 齐，但其展现了严格成本控制能力，可帮助抵消营收波动。分析师表示，尽管这家法国奢侈品巨头第四 季度销售额大体符合摩根大通预期，但可能仍弱于投资者的期待。优于预期的盈利能力或带来短期缓 和，但由于销售增长起伏不定且估值仍高于历史平均水平，该股当前料将维持区间震荡走势。 ...

格隆汇1月28日｜摩根大通分析师在一份研究报告中称，LVMH集团公布的第四季度和2025年业绩好坏 参半，但该公司展现了非常严格的成本控制，这有助于其抵消营收波动的影响。这些分析师称，尽管这 家法国奢侈品巨头的第四季度销售额基本符合摩根大通的预期，但可能弱于投资者的期望。摩根大通 称，好于预期的盈利能力或许会带来一些短期提振，但由于销售增长不平稳以及估值仍高于历史平均水 平，目前该股料将区间震荡。该公司股价下跌7.2%，至542欧元。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月28日，欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.45%，德国DAX指数跌0.1%，英国富时100指数平 开，法国CAC 40指数跌0.5%。LVMH股价下跌6.2%。 ...