Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase chain in the capital market is primarily focused on non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, certain chemicals, shipping, storage, and some agricultural products, driven by global liquidity easing and domestic PPI recovery [1][2]. Price Increase Drivers - Global liquidity easing and geopolitical risk sentiment are driving the price increases in non-ferrous metals, including silver and gold [2]. - Trends in AI and the new energy industry are translating into physical consumption, particularly in storage and lithium batteries (lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate) [2]. - Supply disruptions (e.g., U.S. military blockade of Venezuelan oil) and geopolitical concerns (e.g., escalating Middle East tensions) are pushing oil prices higher, affecting petroleum coke, crude oil, and palm oil [2]. - Seasonal factors are contributing to supply-demand mismatches, including a decrease in terminal operating rates leading to tighter supply of chemicals (e.g., ethylene glycol, chemical fibers), pre-holiday shipping surges, year-end "export rush," and increased winter electricity demand affecting shipping indices [2]. Price Change Data - Significant price changes have been observed in various commodities, with the DXI index showing an increase of 889.8% year-to-date, and the DRAM index increasing by 366.3% [3][11]. - Other notable increases include: - Wafer: 256Gb TLC at 336.6% - Wafer: 512Gb TLC at 295.0% - Gold at 73.0% - Oil products at 57.3% [3][11]. Seasonal Outlook - The first quarter is typically a favorable time for price increases, especially as it transitions into the "golden March and silver April" peak construction season, with policy implementations expected after the March Two Sessions [4][12]. - Historical data suggests that the first quarter is a critical verification window for whether the PPI can stabilize and rise, as previous inflation cycles have shown accelerated PPI increases during this period [6][14].

格隆汇12月29日丨江波龙(301308.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司构建有韧性的、国内海外双循环业务体系 已经初具规模，公司具备实际能力以灵活、快速的不同策略应对外部环境的变化，并充分利用上述独特 优势，化挑战为机遇，实现更好的可持续增长。公司企业级存储产品已导入头部互联网企业的供应链体 系中，客户涵盖运营商、互联网企业、服务器厂商等，并持续深化与多个领域知名客户的合作。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The storage industry is experiencing significant growth driven by AI server demand, with an annual growth rate exceeding 50%, replacing smartphones as the key market. Future industry dynamics will heavily depend on changes in server-side demand [1][4] - The global storage market is facing a supply-demand gap, with a projected DRAM shortfall of 10%-15% and NAND shortfall of 5%-6% by 2026, primarily due to a substantial increase in orders from major cloud providers, which will provide strong support for storage product prices [1][7] Price Trends - Storage product prices have been on the rise, with DRAM shipment prices increasing by 10%-15% quarter-over-quarter in Q3/Q4 2023. A further increase of 20% is expected in Q4 2025, and a sequential growth of 10%-15% is anticipated in the first half of 2026 [1][8] - High prices in the storage market are likely to persist, although the rate of increase may gradually narrow over time due to supply constraints and potential pushback from downstream customers [1][9] Supply Chain Dynamics - The production of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is significantly encroaching on DRAM capacity, consuming 2-3 times more than DRAM. This, combined with limited new factory investments from major manufacturers, will restrict supply growth in the short term, although a larger capacity release is expected around 2027 [1][5][6] - Major companies like Micron and SK Hynix have increased capital expenditures by approximately 50% this year, with an expected further expansion of 30% next year, leading to a gradual release of new capacity around 2027 [1][5][6] Market Demand and Trends - The demand cycle in the storage industry is shifting, with servers now being the core market, particularly driven by AI applications. This shift is expected to continue, even as traditional consumer electronics show signs of weakness [1][4][6] - Despite a projected decline of 5%-6% in total smartphone shipments in 2026, high-end brands like Samsung, Apple, and Huawei are expected to be less affected. AI applications may also drive new demands for storage capacity on the terminal side [1][5] Regional Insights - Taiwanese niche storage companies have begun to raise prices due to the exit of low-end overseas capacity and an increase in high-end product production. This has allowed mainland Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers to capture part of the market, leading to a phase of improved market conditions [1][11] - Local mature process wafer fabs in China, such as SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, are operating at high capacity utilization rates of 96% and 110%, respectively. An increase in storage orders could squeeze the capacity of other categories, potentially leading to price increases in those areas, although the overall demand in consumer electronics and industrial sectors remains weak [2][12] Conclusion - The storage industry is poised for a significant transformation driven by AI and server demand, with strong price support expected due to supply constraints. The dynamics of the market will be influenced by both demand shifts and supply chain adjustments, particularly in the context of emerging technologies and regional market developments [1][6][10]

Core Insights - The highest annual return of public actively managed equity funds reached 236.88% as of December 26, 2025, setting a record and securing the top position for the year [1][15][19] - A total of 72 funds achieved over 100% returns this year, indicating a strong performance in the market [1][20][11] - Approximately 80% of actively managed funds outperformed their benchmarks, although the median return was 29.03%, lower than the average of 32.71% [1][11][16] Fund Performance - The top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart A, achieved a return of 236.88%, significantly surpassing the second-ranked fund, Zhonghang Opportunity Navigator A, by over 60 percentage points [4][19] - The number of funds with returns exceeding 100% ranks fourth in the past nine years, following 2007, 2020, and 2006 [5][20] - Among the 72 doubling funds, four had returns over 150%, with Yongying Technology Smart A leading at 236.88% [5][20] Market Trends - The strong performance of actively managed equity funds in 2025 is closely tied to the structural market conditions, particularly benefiting from the AI technology sector [7][22] - The average position of the top ten holdings in the doubling funds was 62.72%, significantly higher than the average of 46.2% [7][22] - Notable stocks in the portfolios of top funds include New Yisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication, which have seen substantial price increases [7][22] Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the active equity fund sector is recovering, and the management capabilities of public funds are being recognized [6][21] - There is a call for more funds with consistent performance to benefit a larger number of investors, emphasizing the need for sustainable growth in the sector [1][29] - The investment landscape is expected to evolve, with a focus on long-term value rather than short-term gains, as fund managers adapt to changing market conditions [30][29]

Core Insights - The active equity funds in the public offering sector have achieved a remarkable annual return of 236.88% as of December 28, 2025, securing the top position for the year and potentially breaking historical performance records, becoming the highest yielding fund in public offering history [1][2] Group 1: Performance Highlights - A total of 4,378 active equity funds were included in the statistics, with the top performer, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, achieving a cumulative return of 236.88%, significantly surpassing the second-place fund, Zhonghang Opportunity Navigation A, by over 60 percentage points [2] - The number of funds with returns exceeding 100% reached 72, ranking fourth in the historical context of major A-share market years since 2006 [3] - The average return for active equity funds exceeded 30%, with 3,455 funds outperforming their benchmarks, representing nearly 80% of the total [3][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The outstanding performance of active equity funds in 2025 is closely tied to the structural market conditions, particularly benefiting from sectors like AI technology, with many top-performing funds heavily invested in technology sub-sectors [5][6] - The concentration of holdings in top-performing funds is notably high, with average positions in the top ten holdings reaching 62.72%, significantly above the average of 46.2% [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a call for more sustainable performance across a broader range of funds to benefit more investors, as the current high returns are not expected to be consistently replicated [8][9] - The investment community is encouraged to adopt a more measured approach to fund investments, focusing on quality and long-term value rather than chasing high returns [8][9] - The transformation in research and investment mechanisms within the public fund industry is seen as a positive development, moving towards a dual-driven model of data and industry insights [10]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 基础化工 2025 年 12 月 28 日 26Q1 制冷剂长协继续上扬，有机 硅或再迎涨价，关注商业航天、存 储长景气 看好 ——《化工周报 25/12/22-25/12/26》 相关研究 《氨纶或迎格局重塑，欧盟对华轮胎反倾 销暂不采取措施，不改企业出海优势—— 《化工周报 25/12/15-25/12/19》》 2025/12/21 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.c ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron's FY26 Q1 financial report shows impressive results, with revenue of $13.64 billion, significantly exceeding the guidance range of $12.2-12.8 billion and market expectations by nearly $700 million. Adjusted EPS reached $4.78, far surpassing the market expectation of $3.95 [5][8][11] Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - Micron's revenue for the quarter increased by 57% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter, marking the highest growth rate in nearly five years [8] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by price increases rather than volume, with bit shipments showing only slight growth. The adjusted EPS of $4.78 represents a significant jump from the previous quarter [11] - Non-GAAP gross margin surged to 56.8%, a year-over-year increase of 17.3 percentage points, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.1 percentage points, far exceeding the guidance of 50.5%-52.5% [11] - Operating cash flow reached $8.41 billion, well above the expected $5.94 billion, while adjusted free cash flow hit a record $3.91 billion, with a free cash flow margin close to 30% [11] Group 2: Product Structure - DRAM remains the dominant segment, generating $10.8 billion in revenue, accounting for 79% of total revenue, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 20% [12] - The average selling price (ASP) for DRAM increased by approximately 20% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the scarcity of supply [12] - NAND revenue reached $2.7 billion, representing 20% of total revenue, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 22% [12] - HBM is highlighted as a key growth driver, with all of Micron's HBM capacity for 2026 already sold out, and HBM4 expected to enter mass production in Q2 2026 [12] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for storage is being driven by AI, with a "voracious" appetite for storage across all categories, leading to widespread price increases [15][16] - HBM prices have surged by 500% this year, while DDR4 prices have increased by over 50% [15] - The supply of DRAM and NAND is expected to grow by only about 20% year-over-year, significantly lagging behind demand growth, leading to a persistent supply-demand imbalance [19] - Micron's strategy involves balancing production between HBM and traditional DRAM while prioritizing strategic customers in data centers [20] Group 4: Future Outlook - The global storage market is projected to reach $193.2 billion by 2025, setting a historical record [22] - Key signals to watch for the sustainability of this recovery include whether Micron can maintain its strong performance in FY26 Q2, with guidance suggesting revenue of $18.3-19.1 billion and adjusted EPS of $8.42 [24] - The release of new production capacity and advancements in technology will be critical for growth, particularly in HBM [25][26] - The balance of supply and demand, along with price trends, will be crucial in determining the industry's profitability in the long term [27]

12月29日至12月31日期间，有19只个股解禁市值超亿元。据证券时报·数据宝统计，12月29日至12月31 日期间，将有34只个股有限售股解禁。佰维存储、萤石网络等解禁市值超百亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resurgence of mechanical hard drives (HDDs) in 2024, driven by the demand for cold data storage due to artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, leading to significant price increases and a notable rise in sales volume after nearly a decade of decline [5][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer electronics market has struggled to profit from AI advancements, facing price increases in memory and flash storage, which have also affected downstream products like smartphones and PCs [5]. - In 2024, HDD shipments are projected to grow for the first time in ten years, with average prices returning to levels not seen since 1998, resulting in a 50% increase in overall sales compared to 2023 [6][10]. - Major HDD manufacturers, Western Digital and Seagate, have raised prices across the board, attributing this to increased demand from AI and data centers, similar to past trends seen in the graphics card market [8][10]. Group 2: Data Storage Trends - The article distinguishes between "hot" and "cold" data, with hot data requiring high-speed access and cold data being less frequently accessed but voluminous, leading to different storage needs [10][11]. - HDDs are favored for cold data storage due to their lower cost per GB compared to solid-state drives (SSDs), which are more suitable for hot data due to their speed and reliability [11][12]. - The demand for cold data storage is increasing as AI models generate vast amounts of data, revitalizing the HDD market that had been stagnant for years [11][12]. Group 3: Manufacturer Strategies - HDD manufacturers are controlling production to maintain prices, with Western Digital and Seagate opting not to expand capacity despite rising demand [12][14]. - The market for consumer-grade HDDs is shrinking, with manufacturers focusing on enterprise-level products to maximize profits, as indicated by a significant drop in revenue share from over 20% to below 10% for consumer-grade HDDs [24][22]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with SSDs becoming more prevalent, but HDDs still hold a cost advantage in specific enterprise applications, allowing manufacturers to maintain a stable market despite the overall decline in consumer demand [22][24].

华见早安之声 圣诞节后首个交易日，美股大盘在历史高位附近缩量横盘，贵金属表现"疯狂"，金银铜铂金均创历史新高。 美股三大指数微跌，罗素小盘股指跌幅靠前。恐慌指数VIX跌至14下方。特斯拉跌2.1%、领跌科技七巨头。 美债收益率本周基本收平。 美元轻微反弹0.08%。离岸人民币盘整于7.0整数关口附近。 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 加密货币冲高转跌。比特币连续第四周下跌，日内一度涨破8.9万美元，随后较日高一度下挫3.2%。以太坊逼近3000美元后转跌。 黄金现货大涨逾1%，盘中刷新历史高点至4550美元上方，白银飙升10%，站上79美元。现货铂金上涨8%至每盎司2,413.62美元，创新高。COMEX铜期货 涨5.01%。 俄乌冲突迎来和平曙光，WTI原油较日高下挫3.7%。 亚洲时段，A股三大指数再度翻红，贵金属、有色全线大涨，锂矿强势，国投白银LOF再次跌停，商业航天活跃，算力硬件领跌。 要闻 中国人民银行发布《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》。 中国央行周五设定的人民币每日参考汇率大幅弱于市场预期，偏离幅度创下有记录以来的新高。 国家创业投资引导基金正式启动！国家发 ...