021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 17 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，16 日生猪主力 2511 合约高开后震荡走跌，尾盘收阴，最高 13335 元/吨，最低 13125 元/吨，收盘报 13160 元/吨，较昨日跌 0.30%，指数总持仓增 加 8212 手至 217535 手。现货方面，16 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the achievements in China's agricultural sector, including stable grain production, increased early rice yield, and expanded autumn grain planting area, contributing to a projected national grain output of over 1.4 trillion jin in 2024 [1][2][3] Group 1: Grain Production and Security - China's per capita grain availability has reached 500 kg, ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety in staple food supply [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is implementing a new round of actions to enhance grain production capacity, focusing on high-standard farmland construction and seed industry revitalization [2] - The country has seen a significant increase in soybean production, reaching 20.65 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate improvement of 4 percentage points since 2020 [2] Group 2: Agricultural Resilience and Technology - The Ministry has strengthened disaster warning systems and improved agricultural disaster prevention capabilities, enhancing the climate resilience of grain production [3] - Agricultural technology innovation in China has reached a global leading level, with over 100 million acres of high-standard farmland established and a mechanization rate exceeding 75% [4] - The contribution rate of agricultural technology progress stands at 63.2%, with over 95% of crop varieties being independently bred [4] Group 3: Diversified Food Supply System - The agricultural sector is diversifying food sources by utilizing resources from forests, grasslands, rivers, and seas, as well as enhancing modern livestock and aquaculture development [6][7] - Total production of meat, eggs, and milk reached 175 million tons, an increase of 2.778 million tons or 18.8% since 2020, with per capita consumption of meat and eggs exceeding global averages [6] - The total output of aquatic products reached 73.58 million tons in 2024, marking a 12.3% increase since 2020, maintaining China's position as the world's largest producer for 36 consecutive years [6] Group 4: Facility Agriculture and Nutritional Balance - The area of facility agriculture has reached 40 million acres, with annual vegetable production exceeding 200 million tons, ensuring year-round supply [7] - The production of edible fungi has reached over 42 million tons, accounting for 85% of global output, while the cultivation of strawberries and cherries has extended their market availability [7] - Nutritional intake of Chinese residents is approaching that of developed countries, with balanced consumption of protein, fat, and carbohydrates [7]

2024年全国粮食产量突破1.4万亿斤，水产品总产量持续36年居全球第一，农民生活水平持续提升，宜 居宜业和美乡村建设取得新成效……9月16日，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列 主题新闻发布会。农业农村部部长韩俊在会上介绍，"十四五"以来，我国农业农村发展保持稳中有进、 稳中向好的良好势头，为经济社会高质量发展提供了有力支撑。 粮食产量高结构优 "现在人均粮食占有量已经达到500公斤，做到了谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全，国家粮食安全有充分保 障。"韩俊介绍，棉油糖产能也持续提升，果菜茶、肉蛋奶和水产品供给充足、种类多样。 除了抓产量，还要优结构。韩俊表示，为适应市场需求变化，我国主动优化农业生产结构，提升产品品 质，满足人民群众多样化、优质化需求。比如，针对大豆油料等进口量比较大的品种，持续提升国内产 能。去年，我国大豆产量达2065万吨，大豆自给率比2020年提高了4个百分点。油料作物产量3978.7万 吨，食用植物油自给率提高了近5个百分点。 农业生产要增强韧性。近年来，我国极端天气多发重发，给粮食生产带来新的挑战。韩俊介绍，农业农 村部不断强化灾害预警预报，大力推进农田水利建设、农田沟 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to rise [3] - The pig farming sector is supported by a stable price floor, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3] - The pet consumption market is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic changes [3] - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is expected to see significant returns due to the recovery of the aquaculture market [3] - The poultry sector is projected to experience a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3] Summary by Sections Swine - The swine industry is progressing orderly with a stable production capacity, and pig prices are expected to maintain a favorable trend into 2025. As of September 12, the price of live pigs was 13.26 yuan/kg, down 3.35% week-on-week and down 31.86% year-on-year [1] - The price of 7kg piglets was approximately 284.29 yuan/head, down 9.95% week-on-week and down 29.43% year-on-year [1] Poultry - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery. As of September 12, the price of chicken seedlings was 3.03 yuan/bird, down 8.46% week-on-week [1] - The price of eggs in major production areas was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 6.98% week-on-week but down 24.10% year-on-year [1] Beef - A new round of beef price increases has begun, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle reversal in 2025. As of September 12, the average price of beef in the domestic market was 61.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and up 21.29% year-on-year [1][3] Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk in major production areas was 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 4, up 0.3% week-on-week but down 3.5% year-on-year [2] Soybean Meal - The short-term supply of soybean meal is ample, while the medium to long-term supply-demand balance is expected to strengthen. As of September 12, the domestic soybean spot price was 4044 yuan/ton, up 0.95% week-on-week [2] Corn - The domestic supply-demand balance is tightening, and prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. As of September 12, the domestic corn spot price was 2357 yuan/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week and up 1.77% year-on-year [2] Sugar - Short-term imports are increasing, with attention on the import rhythm and fluctuations in crude oil prices. As of September 12, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi was 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.17% week-on-week [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the achievements in agricultural development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing food security and the diversification of food supply in China [1][3]. Agricultural Production and Food Security - China's grain production reached a new high of 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tons) last year, an increase of 74 billion jin (approximately 37 million tons) compared to 2020 [1][3]. - The per capita grain availability in China has reached 500 kg, ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety in staple food [3]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has implemented a national food security strategy focusing on domestic production, moderate imports, and technological support [3]. Crop and Livestock Production - The production capacity of cotton, oil, and sugar has been continuously improved, with sufficient and diverse supply of fruits, vegetables, meat, eggs, milk, and aquatic products [1][6]. - The total output of livestock products reached 175 million tons by the end of last year, an increase of 27.78 million tons (18.8%) since 2020 [6][7]. - The soybean production reached 20.65 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate increase of 4 percentage points compared to 2020 [4][6]. Agricultural Reform and Modernization - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is deepening rural reforms, including extending land contracts and managing rural housing land [2]. - Over 2 million farmer cooperatives and nearly 4 million family farms have been cultivated, promoting the integration of smallholders with modern agriculture [2]. Food Supply Diversification - The central government has emphasized the establishment of a diversified food supply system, focusing on various food sources including forests, grasslands, and aquatic resources [6][7]. - The area of facility agriculture has reached 40 million mu (approximately 2.67 million hectares), with annual vegetable production exceeding 20 million tons [7]. Consumer Engagement and Market Stability - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has launched a plan to boost agricultural product consumption, emphasizing brand development and marketing strategies [8][9]. - The plan aims to enhance consumer engagement through various channels, including festivals and exhibitions, to stabilize the agricultural product market [9].

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China has achieved dual improvements in both the quantity and quality of arable land [1][3] - The government has implemented a new round of land spatial planning, with strict assessments on arable land quantity, aiming for a national arable land area of 1.94 billion mu by the end of 2024, an increase of 28 million mu from 2020 [3] Group 1: Arable Land and Quality Improvement - Over 100 million mu of high-standard farmland has been built, with central government investment exceeding 700 billion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The average central government financial input per mu has increased to over 2,000 yuan since 2020, significantly enhancing agricultural production capacity [5] - The governance of degraded arable land is actively promoted, including infrastructure construction and protective farming practices [7][9] Group 2: Food Supply and Nutrition - China is accelerating the construction of a diversified food supply system to ensure not only sufficient food but also better and healthier nutrition for the population [10] - By the end of 2024, the total output of meat, eggs, and milk is projected to reach 175 million tons, an increase of 2.778 million tons or 18.8% from 2020 [12] - Per capita consumption of meat and poultry eggs in China has reached 72 kg and 25 kg respectively, both above the world average [15] Group 3: Aquaculture and Fisheries - The total output of aquatic products has reached 73.58 million tons by 2024, a growth of 12.3% from 2020, maintaining China's position as the world's largest producer of aquatic products for 36 consecutive years [18] - The development of ecological fisheries and comprehensive rice-fish farming is being actively promoted to enhance sustainable resource utilization [14] Group 4: Agricultural Infrastructure and Facilities - The area of facility agriculture has rapidly developed, reaching 40 million mu, with annual vegetable production achieving 200 million tons, ensuring year-round supply [19]

Group 1: Agricultural Development - The agricultural sector is promoting a diversified food supply system by sourcing food from forests, grasslands, rivers, lakes, seas, and through facility agriculture, leading to a richer variety of food on consumers' tables [1] - The total output of meat, eggs, and dairy products reached 175 million tons by the end of last year, an increase of 27.78 million tons or 18.8% compared to 2020 [2] - Per capita consumption of meat and poultry eggs reached 72 kg and 25 kg respectively, both exceeding the global average [2] Group 2: Aquaculture and Fisheries - In 2024, the total output of aquatic products reached 73.58 million tons, representing a 12.3% increase since 2020 [4] - China has maintained its position as the world's largest producer of aquatic products for 36 consecutive years, with abundant supplies of fish, shrimp, crab, and shellfish [4] Group 3: Facility Agriculture - The area of facility agriculture has reached 40 million acres, with annual vegetable production exceeding 20 million tons [6] - The annual output of edible fungi has surpassed 42 million tons, accounting for 85% of global production [6] Group 4: Biotechnology in Agriculture - The agricultural sector is accelerating the development of biotechnology and bio-industries, leading to the emergence of new food products [8] - China is at the forefront of algae cultivation technology [8]

Market Overview - The pork concept sector declined by 1.93%, ranking among the top losers in the market, with Tianyu Biological hitting the limit down, while companies like Aonong Biological, Xinwufeng, and Juxing Agriculture also saw significant declines [1][2] - In contrast, the top gainers included Bangji Technology, Roniu Mountain, and Jingji Zhino, which rose by 2.91%, 0.46%, and 0.40% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The pork concept sector experienced a net outflow of 1.314 billion yuan, with 26 stocks seeing net outflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 50 million yuan in outflows [1] - Leading the outflows was Muyuan Foods with a net outflow of 395 million yuan, followed by Wens Foodstuffs and Aonong Biological, each with 166 million yuan in outflows [1][2] Stock Performance - The stocks with the highest net outflows included: - Muyuan Foods: -2.42% with a turnover rate of 1.66% and a net outflow of 395 million yuan - Wens Foodstuffs: -1.99% with a turnover rate of 1.21% and a net outflow of 166 million yuan - Aonong Biological: -4.30% with a turnover rate of 12.87% and a net outflow of 166 million yuan [1][2] - Conversely, stocks with net inflows included: - Roniu Mountain: +0.46% with a net inflow of 1.554 million yuan - Shennong Group: -3.22% with a net inflow of 837,650 yuan - Guangming Meat Industry: -0.81% with a net inflow of 763,560 yuan [1][2]

Group 1 - The pork concept sector declined by 1.93%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with Tianyu Biological hitting the limit down, while Aonong Biological, Xinwufeng, and Juxing Agricultural also saw significant declines [1][2] - Among the pork concept stocks, five stocks experienced price increases, with Bangji Technology, Ronioushan, and Jingji Zhino rising by 2.91%, 0.46%, and 0.40% respectively [1][2] - The pork concept sector saw a net outflow of 1.314 billion yuan from main funds, with 26 stocks experiencing net outflows, and seven stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top net outflow stock was Muyuan Foods, with a net outflow of 395 million yuan, followed by Wens Foodstuffs and Aonong Biological, each with a net outflow of 166 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included Ronioushan, Shennong Group, and Guangming Meat, with net inflows of 15.54 million yuan, 8.37 million yuan, and 7.64 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The pork concept sector's outflow list included stocks like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Aonong Biological, all showing significant declines in their stock prices [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is making significant progress in diversifying food supply systems and enhancing agricultural development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on modern livestock, fisheries, facility agriculture, and biotechnology [1][2]. Group 1: Modern Livestock Development - The level of modern livestock development is being significantly improved, with a stable supply of livestock products. By the end of last year, the total output of meat, eggs, and milk reached 175 million tons, an increase of 27.78 million tons or 18.8% compared to 2020 [2]. - Per capita consumption of meat and poultry eggs in China reached 72 kg and 25 kg respectively, both exceeding the global average. Per capita dairy consumption also increased to 40.5 kg, up by 2.3 kg from 2020 [2]. Group 2: Modern Fisheries Development - The development of modern fisheries is being prioritized, with a focus on sustainable use of fishery resources, ecological fisheries in large water bodies, and deep-sea aquaculture, contributing to the creation of a "blue granary" [2]. Group 3: Facility Agriculture Development - Facility agriculture is rapidly advancing, with the area of facility crops reaching 40 million acres and annual vegetable production exceeding 20 million tons, achieving year-round balanced supply [2]. Group 4: Expansion of Agricultural Development Space - The agricultural sector is expanding from traditional crops and livestock to a wider range of biological resources, accelerating the development of biotechnology and new food products through breakthroughs in key technologies [2]. Group 5: Nutritional Improvement - The nutritional health levels of food consumed by urban and rural residents are approaching those of developed countries, indicating that the population is not only well-fed but also has access to healthier and more nutritious food [3].