Group 1 - The U.S. stock index futures, including the three major indices and the Russell 2000, experienced a decline of up to 0.2% during the early trading session on July 1 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the extension of the "Northbound Swap Connect" product contract period to 30 years, enhancing the interconnectivity of the domestic and foreign interest rate derivatives market [1] - On the launch day of the optimization measures, 25 domestic and foreign institutions actively participated in transactions of over 10 years RMB interest rate swaps, with a total trading volume of 1.53 billion RMB [1] - The optimization will improve the yield curve, fill the gap for ultra-long-term interest rate management tools, and enhance the diversity of cross-border investment strategies [1] Group 2 - Since its launch in May 2023, the "Northbound Swap Connect" has seen increasing trading activity, with a cumulative transaction volume of 7.16 trillion RMB by June 2025, attracting 82 foreign institutions [2] - The "Northbound Swap Connect" has become a primary channel for foreign investors to manage RMB asset interest rate risks, continuously attracting more foreign capital to increase holdings in Chinese market bonds [2] - Future plans include enriching the product types of the "Swap Connect" and improving the risk management framework to promote the joint development of the financial markets in mainland China and Hong Kong [2]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[43] - **Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Parameters and Settings**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 27, 2025[44] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[44] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end, short the corresponding nominal principal amount of CSI 500 (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000) stock index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantity of the spot and futures ends based on the product's net value[44] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days. On that day, close the position at the closing price and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[44] - **Remarks**: Allocate equal principal to the spot and futures ends, without considering transaction fees, impact costs, and the non-infinite divisibility of futures contracts[44] - **Evaluation**: The strategy is designed to optimize hedging by continuously adjusting positions based on basis convergence factors[43] Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The strategy selects the contract with the smallest annualized basis discount for hedging[45] - **Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Parameters and Settings**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 27, 2025[45] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[45] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end, short the corresponding nominal principal amount of CSI 500 (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000) stock index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantity of the spot and futures ends based on the product's net value[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: When rebalancing, calculate the annualized basis of all tradable futures contracts on the day and select the contract with the smallest annualized basis discount for opening a position. Hold the same contract for 8 trading days or until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days, then select a new contract (excluding futures contracts with less than 8 days to expiration). Even if the selection result is to hold the original contract unchanged, continue to hold for 8 trading days[45] - **Remarks**: Allocate equal principal to the spot and futures ends, without considering transaction fees, impact costs, and the non-infinite divisibility of futures contracts[45] - **Evaluation**: The strategy aims to minimize basis discount by selecting the optimal contract for hedging[45] Model Backtesting Results Continuous Hedging Strategy - **CSI 500 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: -2.77% (monthly), -2.08% (quarterly), -0.98% (minimum basis)[47] - **Volatility**: 3.88% (monthly), 4.77% (quarterly), 4.69% (minimum basis)[47] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -8.15% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum basis)[47] - **Net Value**: 0.9215 (monthly), 0.9405 (quarterly), 0.9718 (minimum basis)[47] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 17.53 (minimum basis)[47] - **2025 YTD Return**: -3.31% (monthly), -1.35% (quarterly), -0.69% (minimum basis)[47] - **CSI 300 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: 0.58% (monthly), 0.77% (quarterly), 1.42% (minimum basis)[52] - **Volatility**: 3.02% (monthly), 3.37% (quarterly), 3.16% (minimum basis)[52] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum basis)[52] - **Net Value**: 1.0171 (monthly), 1.0226 (quarterly), 1.0418 (minimum basis)[52] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 15.46 (minimum basis)[52] - **2025 YTD Return**: -0.63% (monthly), 0.27% (quarterly), 0.82% (minimum basis)[52] - **SSE 50 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: 1.07% (monthly), 2.04% (quarterly), 1.76% (minimum basis)[56] - **Volatility**: 3.14% (monthly), 3.57% (quarterly), 3.16% (minimum basis)[56] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum basis)[56] - **Net Value**: 1.0315 (monthly), 1.0605 (quarterly), 1.0521 (minimum basis)[56] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 15.81 (minimum basis)[56] - **2025 YTD Return**: 0.07% (monthly), 1.11% (quarterly), 1.09% (minimum basis)[56] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: -6.00% (monthly), -4.44% (quarterly), -3.79% (minimum basis)[58] - **Volatility**: 4.73% (monthly), 5.78% (quarterly), 5.60% (minimum basis)[58] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum basis)[58] - **Net Value**: 0.8523 (monthly), 0.8843 (quarterly), 0.9009 (minimum basis)[58] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 16.02 (minimum basis)[58] - **2025 YTD Return**: -8.76% (monthly), -4.36% (quarterly), -3.55% (minimum basis)[58] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset[61] - **Construction Process**: - **Algorithm**: Based on the methodology in the report series "Exploring Market Sentiment Implied in the Options Market"[61] - **Data**: As of June 27, 2025, the 30-day VIX values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 17.47, 16.92, 23.84, and 21.35, respectively[61] - **Evaluation**: The index accurately reflects the volatility expectations of the market for different time horizons[61] Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices[69] - **Construction Process**: - **Algorithm**: Based on the methodology in the report series "Exploring Market Sentiment Implied in the Options Market"[69] - **Data**: As of June 27, 2025, the SKEW values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 95.51, 97.95, 93.74, and 101.14, respectively[70] - **Evaluation**: The index provides valuable insights into market expectations of extreme events and tail risks[70] Factor Backtesting Results Cinda-VIX - **SSE 50**: 17.47[61] - **CSI 300**: 16.92[61] - **CSI 500**: 23.84[61] - **CSI 1000**: 21.35[61] Cinda-SKEW - **SSE 50**: 95.51[70] - **CSI 300**: 97.95[70] - **CSI 500**: 93.74[70] - **CSI 1000**: 101.14[70]

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of risk management tools in the STAR Market is expected to accelerate with the implementation of the "1+6" policy measures by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1] Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The CSRC has issued opinions to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the STAR Market, focusing on the introduction of more STAR Market ETF options and futures options [1] - The emphasis on expanding risk management tools is a key aspect of the STAR Market reform, aimed at attracting long-term capital [1][3] Group 2: Current Financial Instruments - The launch of the STAR 50 ETF options on June 5, 2023, marked the introduction of the first on-exchange options product based on the STAR 50 Index, which includes both call and put options [2] - The STAR 50 ETF options have seen significant trading activity, with a cumulative trading volume of 153 million contracts for the Huaxia STAR 50 ETF options and 78 million contracts for the E Fund STAR 50 ETF options as of 2024 [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The introduction of STAR 50 ETF options has improved market pricing efficiency and attracted more investors, thereby enhancing the liquidity of the underlying ETF market [3] - The STAR Market has developed a multi-tiered index system, with a total of 88 STAR Market ETFs and a total scale exceeding 250 billion yuan as of mid-June 2025 [3] - There is a growing need for more derivative products to meet the risk hedging demands of various sectors, as the existing STAR 50 ETF options have limited coverage [3][4] Group 4: Recommendations for Future Products - Analysts suggest prioritizing the launch of STAR 50 index futures and options to meet institutional hedging needs, as well as considering options for STAR 100 and STAR 200 indices to cover mid-cap and small-cap tech stocks [4] - The development of industry-specific derivatives, such as semiconductor and AI ETF options, is recommended to mitigate sector volatility risks [4] - Future expansion of derivative products is expected to enhance the risk management framework of the STAR Market, attracting more market makers and institutional investors, thereby improving market liquidity and pricing efficiency [5]

Group 1 - Shanghai is accelerating the construction of international economic, financial, trade, shipping, and technological innovation centers to enhance urban core functions [1][2] - The city has implemented a "white list + differentiated qualification assessment" inspection model for first-import consumer goods, resulting in over 20,000 global and regional first-launch products being included in the whitelist since May [2] - Shanghai Free Trade Zone has established 138 innovative institutional cases, including 70 national first cases, contributing to a competitive policy and institutional framework [2][3] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume of the newly launched shipping index futures has reached 132,800 contracts, with a daily trading value of 11.465 billion [3] - By 2024, Shanghai's total foreign trade import and export volume is projected to reach 4.27 trillion yuan, with a financial market transaction growth of 8.2% [4] - Shanghai's container throughput is expected to exceed 50 million standard containers annually, with the city aiming to enhance the overall effect of the "five centers" construction [4]

股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 股指期权日报 | 2025-06-23 期权成交量 2025-06-20，上证50ETF期权成交量为101.12万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为86.40万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为175.57万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为4.31万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为93.65万张；上证50股指期权成交量为2.85万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为7.71万张；中证1000期权总成交量为22.12万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.98，环比变动为-0.18；持仓量PCR报0.92，环比变动为+0.05； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.15，环比变动为-0.02；持仓量PCR报0.84，环比变动为+0.02； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.39，环比变动为+0.20；持仓量PCR报1.01，环比变动为+0.04 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.21 ，环比变动为-0.25；持仓量PCR报0.98；环比变动为+0.00； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报1.24，环比变动为-0.09 ；持仓量P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market showed a continuous downward trend, with pharmaceutical and biological and power equipment contributing to the main decline of the CSI 300 Index, and pharmaceutical and biological and non - ferrous metals contributing to the main decline of the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index. The trading volume of each variety increased month - on - month, and the basis strengthened [4]. - For the bond futures market, the basis of bond futures fluctuated narrowly this week, some contracts experienced CTD switching affected by new bonds, the IRR generally fluctuated at a high level, and the inter - period spread mainly declined. The net value of the multi - factor timing strategy for bond futures increased this week, and the strategy signals were mostly bullish. The net value of the cross - variety arbitrage strategy for bond futures increased, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 1 - 3 - year index with reduced duration and conducts bond futures hedging [55]. - In the commodity market, last week, the domestic commodity market was affected by the conflict situation in the Middle East. Crude oil and related energy and chemical varieties mostly rose, and most commodity factors continued to rise, with the term structure factors performing the best, followed by the price - volume trend factors [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market showed a continuous downward trend, and the trading volume of each variety increased month - on - month, with the basis strengthening. Pharmaceutical and biological and power equipment contributed to the main decline of the CSI 300 Index, and pharmaceutical and biological and non - ferrous metals contributed to the main decline of the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy - The basis of stock index futures strengthened significantly. After the dividend adjustment of IC and IM, the discounts converged to 8.6% and 12.1% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for the inter - period arbitrage strategy, and short - selling hedging is recommended to hold near - month contracts to avoid the risk of further basis convergence [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the strategy net value declined significantly last week, with the annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factors losing 0.5%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor gave reverse arbitrage signals for IH, IF, and IM, and a positive arbitrage signal for IC [5]. - The net value of the cross - variety arbitrage timing strategy lost 0.1% last week. The cross - variety momentum signals performed poorly, and all portfolios were currently empty [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy models were profitable last week, with the single - factor equal - weight, OLS, and XGB models earning 0.2%, 0%, and 1.2% respectively. The bearish signals of the timing models strengthened, with the XGB model bearish on all indices, and the OLS model bullish on the SSE 50 and CSI 300 and bearish on the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures 3.2.1 This Week's Strategy Focus - In terms of basis and inter - period spreads, the basis of bond futures fluctuated narrowly this week, some contracts experienced CTD switching affected by new bonds, the IRR generally fluctuated at a high level, and the inter - period spread mainly declined. The uncertainty of the inter - period spread increased after a short - term rebound [55]. - For the futures timing strategy, the net value of the multi - factor timing strategy increased this week, and the strategy signals were mostly bullish, with the main bullish factors being the basis factor and high - frequency factor [55]. - In the futures cross - variety arbitrage strategy, the latest signal of the TS - T cross - variety arbitrage strategy was volatile, and the latest signal of the T - TL strategy was bearish [55]. - For the credit bond neutral strategy, the bond futures hedging pressure index based on far - month contracts continued to rebound, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 1 - 3 - year index with reduced duration and conducts bond futures hedging [55]. 3.3 Commodity CTA 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, the domestic commodity market was affected by the conflict situation in the Middle East. Crude oil and related energy and chemical varieties mostly rose, and most commodity factors continued to rise. The term structure factors performed the best, with an average increase of over 1%, followed by the price - volume trend factors, with an average increase of over 0.5%. Only the warehouse receipt factors declined [75]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies had different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, maximum drawdown, recent weekly return, and year - to - date return. For example, the CWFT strategy had an annualized return of 10.1%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.70, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, with a recent weekly return of 0.11% and a year - to - date return of 3.76% [76].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now at 71%, up from 60% prior to the announcement [1] - The probability of a rate cut in 2025 is reflected at 46 basis points, showing little change compared to the period before the Federal Reserve's statement [1]

Group 1 - The number of A-share listed companies participating in hedging activities continues to grow, with a significant increase in announcements related to hedging in May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - In May 2025, 50 A-share listed companies in the real economy issued 78 announcements regarding hedging, up from 26 companies in May 2024, indicating a strong demand for risk management tools [1] - Year-to-date, 1,295 A-share listed companies have issued hedging-related announcements, an increase of 142 companies or 12% compared to the same period in 2024, with exchange rate risk being the primary concern [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced eight major financial opening measures, including the promotion of RMB foreign exchange futures trading to enhance risk management for financial institutions and foreign trade enterprises [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to accelerate the implementation of key measures for capital market opening by 2025, including expanding the range of products available for foreign investment [1] - The establishment of the RMB foreign exchange futures market is expected to deepen the onshore market and provide a new option for the People's Bank of China in foreign exchange market regulation [2] Group 3 - The introduction of foreign exchange futures is anticipated to diversify trading participants and better serve the risk management needs of the real economy [2] - The China Financial Futures Exchange currently offers various futures and options products in equity and interest rate derivatives, and the addition of foreign exchange futures will fill a gap in the market [2]

Group 1 - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reported at 4.32% on June 16, up from 4.28% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on June 16, consistent with the previous day [1] - Significant risk was added to the June 26 SOFR futures contract following record trading volumes on March 26 and June 26 [1] Group 2 - The largest increase in risk was observed in the 10-year Treasury futures due to price volatility on the same day [1]