整体业绩保持快速增长趋势。公司25Q3 收入6.1 亿/+36.2%，其中线上业务收入3.2 亿/+73.8%；线下收 入2.9 亿/+12.9%。线上再次取得爆发性增长，精准营销下固有线上渠道回暖+快手贡献增量，同时进一 步深耕线下核心优势区域。公司也加大品牌和IP 联名，打造品牌和产品的差异化内核，在直营持续开 店及线上运营模型打造下，优化费效成本，实现销售及管理费用率的双降，25Q3 销售、管理费用率分 别下降1.3、0.1pct。25Q3 归母净利润0.25 亿元/+25.3%，扣非归母净利润0.22 亿元/+20.8%，扣非净利 率3.7%/-0.5pct，在收入快速增长背景下保持盈利稳健。 投资建议：公司通过优化产品结构、调优渠道策略等措施，实现业绩的逆势增长；叠加正处于由区域品 牌向全国性品牌转型进程中，线下开店依然有较大空间，有望保持较快收入/利润增长，且在黄金饰品 行业转型下增长具备可持续性。我们预计25-26 年公司归母净利润1.3、1.6 亿元，当下对应25-26 年PE 约36x/28x，给予"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：消费持续疲软；行业竞争加剧；金价大幅波动的风险 黄金税改短空长多 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "strong, change, and new" in the 2026 strategy for the trading industry, focusing on both external and internal demand, particularly through consumer exports and resource trading [1][3] Group 1: Industry Review and Trends - In 2025, the trading industry benefited from national subsidies, leading to a recovery in consumer demand, particularly in discretionary categories, with growth rates of 18-21% for various consumer goods [3][14] - The "anti-involution" trend has led to a recovery in production profits, with industrial profits showing over 20% year-on-year growth in August and September [3][23] - The rise of new consumption patterns, the impact of trade wars on consumer exports, and the significant increase in gold prices present unique opportunities for the industry [3][24][26] Group 2: Future Directions for the Trading Industry - Consumer exports and trade security are expected to play a crucial role in China's economy, with a focus on building "Chinese brands" globally [3][28] - The gold and jewelry retail sector is anticipated to remain a key area of focus in 2026, despite high gold prices, as consumer habits typically lag behind price changes [3][29] - The bulk trading sector is at a turning point, with potential for the emergence of large Chinese trading groups similar to Japan's trading houses [3][30] - Retail and tourism sectors are expected to undergo significant changes and reforms, providing marginal catalysts for growth [3][31] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Strong investment opportunities include companies involved in consumer exports such as Xiaoshangcheng, Anker Innovations, and Luguan Technology, as well as gold retail brands like Luk Fook Holdings and Chow Tai Fook [3][33] - Companies undergoing changes in trading cycles and brand development, such as Xiamen Xiangyu and Yonghui Superstores, are also recommended [3][34] - New consumption trends represented by brands like Laopu Gold and Pop Mart are highlighted as potential growth areas [3][35] - Companies with low valuations, including Huazhu Group and Miniso, are suggested for consideration [3][36] Group 4: Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - The cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing high growth, with exports reaching 2.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 10.8% increase year-on-year [42] - The sector's growth is driven by China's supply chain advantages and increasing e-commerce penetration in overseas markets [42][45] - Future growth in cross-border e-commerce is expected to be fueled by the branding of supply chains and the continued rise of overseas e-commerce platforms [42][45] Group 5: Bulk Supply Chain Recovery - The bulk supply chain industry is fragmented, with leading companies holding less than 2% market share, indicating significant growth potential [54] - The market concentration in the bulk supply chain sector is increasing, with leading companies showing continuous growth [54][58] - As domestic manufacturing becomes more specialized, the advantages of leading supply chain companies in terms of scale and efficiency are expected to enhance their market share [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Shenzhou International, Tabo, and Anta Sports [5][12][35]. Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a significant performance in Q3 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by 161% and revenue growing by 30% year-on-year to $1.76 billion [1][15]. - The report highlights the strong growth in the Technical Apparel segment, particularly driven by the Arc'teryx brand, which saw a 31% revenue increase in Q3 2025 [16]. - The Outdoor Performance segment, led by Salomon, experienced a 36% revenue growth in Q3 2025, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales rising by 67% [22]. - The Ball & Racquet segment, centered around Wilson, achieved a 16% revenue increase in Q3 2025, with plans to expand store presence in China [25]. Summary by Sections Amer Sports Q3 2025 Performance - Adjusted net profit grew by 161% to $185 million, with revenue reaching $1.76 billion [1][15]. - Revenue growth by region: Americas +18%, Greater China +47%, EMEA +23%, Asia Pacific +54% [1][15]. - Expected revenue growth for 2025 is projected at 23%-24% [1][15]. Technical Apparel - Revenue increased by 31% to $683 million in Q3 2025, with a DTC revenue growth of 46% [16]. - The segment's adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) decreased by 1 percentage point to 19% [16]. Outdoor Performance - Revenue rose by 36% to $724 million in Q3 2025, with a 67% increase in DTC sales [22]. - The segment's adjusted OPM improved by 4.2 percentage points to 21.7% [22]. Ball & Racquet - Revenue grew by 16% to $350 million in Q3 2025, with an adjusted OPM increase of 0.7 percentage points to 7.6% [25]. - The segment's growth was primarily driven by apparel and racquet products, with plans to open 35 new stores in China [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their strong fundamentals and growth potential, including Shenzhou International, Tabo, and Anta Sports, with respective PE ratios of 14x, 15x, and 16x for 2025 [32][33][35].

Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a significant wave of store closures, with at least 17,100 physical stores shutting down in the first half of 2025, including nearly 10,000 in the restaurant sector and over 4,500 in clothing [3][5] - The trend of store closures is particularly pronounced in smaller cities, where many entrepreneurs are unable to sustain their businesses for even a year [5][12] - The rise of e-commerce has drastically altered consumer shopping habits, leading to a decline in foot traffic for physical stores, despite attempts to attract customers through discounts and promotions [6][8] Group 1: Store Closures - A specific jewelry brand closed 905 stores in 2025, averaging 2.5 closures per day, while another brand closed 74 stores in the first half of the year, with the most significant losses occurring in third- and fourth-tier cities [1][3] - Many businesses are quickly putting up "for rent" signs after only a few months of operation, reflecting the harsh reality of the retail environment [3][5] Group 2: E-commerce Impact - E-commerce has fundamentally changed shopping behaviors, with consumers increasingly opting for online purchases, leading to a significant drop in physical store traffic [6][8] - The convenience of online shopping, coupled with competitive pricing, has made it difficult for physical stores to retain customers [14][16] Group 3: Economic Factors - High rental costs are a major factor contributing to store closures, with landlords often increasing rents despite declining sales [19][21] - The economic downturn has led to reduced consumer spending, as individuals are burdened with housing and car loans, making them hesitant to spend on non-essential items [28][29] Group 4: Demographic Changes - The population decline in China, with a drop to approximately 1.408 billion in 2024, has resulted in fewer consumers, making it increasingly difficult for businesses to thrive [22][24] - The aging population and the migration of younger generations to urban areas further exacerbate the challenges faced by physical retailers in smaller towns [26]

11月21日，伦敦现货黄金价格一度下跌1%，跌破4030美元/盎司。截至发稿，黄金期现货价格均有所回升，伦敦现货黄金报4062.65美元/盎司，跌0.34%； COMEX黄金跌0.37%，报4044.9美元/盎司。 继前一日站上4100美元后，现货黄金价格又回归下跌通道。 该行还将黄金的上行目标调高200美元至每盎司4900美元，因政治和金融风险可能飙升，但仍维持下行目标在每盎司3700美元。 | 国内现货 | 国际现货 | 黄金实物 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | 银行 | 回收 | | | | 品牌 | | | 价格(元/克) 日涨跌幅 | | | 周大福 | | | 1305 | 0.00% | | 老凤祥 | | | 1298 | -0.31% | | 周六福 | | | 1266 | -0.55% | | 周生生 | | | 1295 | -0.92% | | 六福珠宝 | | | 1303 | 0.00% | | 金至尊 | | | 1303 | 0.00% | | 老庙 | | | 1298 | -0.31% | 消息面上，当地时间11月 ...

行 华福证券 行 业 定 期 报 告 海南离岛免税政策方面，本周财政部等国家部委研究制定并出台 《公告》，为激发海南消费市场潜能注入新动力、拓展新空间，核心 包括品类拓展等利好政策，关注四季度海南封关主线下中国中免等海 南免税运营商。旅游标的方面，2025 年前三季度，国内居民出游人次 49.98 亿，比上年同期增加 7.61 亿，同比增长 18.0%，旅游出行 beta 不断向好，建议关注四季度冰雪游旺季公司长白山、大连圣亚，以及 拥有收并购预期的头部公司祥源文旅、西域旅游等。 黄金珠宝：税收新政落地，长期有望推动行业合规发展。 黄金税收新政发布后，针对黄金首饰产品，从上海金交所采购标 准黄金的增值税进项税抵扣额从 13%下降至 6%，企业税负成本增加， 预计成本压力将传导至终端，导致首饰产品价格提升。我们估计价格 变动短期将影响终端克重产品销售，长期看民众对高金价逐步接受后 终端消费有望回补，且水贝等渠道销售有望向合规金店转移。建议关 注一口价产品占比高的老铺黄金，公司产品价格相对稳定，金价持续 上行受益；其他建议关注潮宏基、菜百股份。 餐饮：关注具备成长动能的细分赛道龙头。 餐饮板块分化延续，看好具备成 ...

Group 1 - Xinjiang Altay region's education department announced a snow holiday for students from December 1 to 5, allowing for a maximum of 9 consecutive days off, benefiting 73,000 students [1] - The snow holiday aims to encourage students to participate in cultural and sports activities, as well as outdoor excursions, aligning with local climate conditions [1] Group 2 - Huanyou Group reported total revenue of $540 million for Q3 2025, with live streaming revenue at $388 million and advertising revenue increasing by 29.2% year-over-year [2] - Non-live streaming revenue accounted for 28.1% of total revenue, indicating a diversification in the company's revenue structure [2] - The company's operating profit for Q3, according to non-GAAP measures, was $41 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 16.6% [2] - As of September 30, Huanyou Group had net cash of $3.32 billion [2] Group 3 - The wedding of Zhang Junjie, founder of Bawang Chaji, and Gao Haichun, co-chairman of Trina Solar, has been confirmed, highlighting the intersection of the tea and photovoltaic industries [3] - The marriage may lead to resource, technology, and market expansion synergies between the two sectors [3] Group 4 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen again, with several brands reporting prices above 1300 yuan per gram, including Zhou Shengsheng at 1307 yuan and Zhou Dafu at 1305 yuan [4] - Recent fluctuations in the gold market are attributed to factors such as declining expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and uncertainties in economic data and trade situations [4]

Core Insights - Gold prices have recently rebounded, with major brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook seeing prices rise to around 1290 CNY per gram, after fluctuations that saw prices peak at 1333 CNY per gram on November 13 and drop to 1288 CNY on November 18 [1][3] Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by both domestic and international factors, including a decrease in safe-haven demand and mixed expectations regarding the U.S. labor market and inflation [3] - International gold prices also saw a decline, with spot prices dropping from a high of 4245.22 USD per ounce on November 13 to below 4000 USD, reaching a low of 3997.658 USD [3] Tax Policy Impact - A new tax policy effective from November 1, 2023, mandates a dual classification of gold usage, increasing the tax burden on non-investment gold processing businesses, which will likely lead to higher retail prices for gold products [5] - The new tax policy reduces the VAT deduction from 13% to 6% for certain gold processing activities, resulting in an increased tax burden of approximately 7% [5] Market Behavior - The Shenzhen Shui Bei market, a major gold wholesale market, has seen a significant drop in activity, with traders quoting two different pricing systems: pre-tax and post-tax prices [7] - The base price in Shui Bei for November was reported at 988 CNY per gram, indicating a narrowing gap with retail prices [7] Consumer Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior, with "self-wear demand" now accounting for 37% of gold jewelry sales, surpassing traditional wedding-related purchases [8] - Data indicates a decline in gold jewelry consumption by 32.5% year-on-year, while gold bars and coins saw a 24.55% increase in consumption [8] Industry Adjustments - Major gold companies are restructuring by closing franchise stores and increasing self-operated outlets to optimize their store networks, with Chow Tai Fook reducing its store count by 300 since June 2023 [10] - The industry is moving towards more refined operations and profitability, as evidenced by the closure of inefficient stores [10] Marketing Strategies - Companies are exploring diverse marketing strategies, including online live streaming, to find new growth avenues [12] - The overseas mining production of large gold groups in China increased by 18.39% year-on-year, reaching 61.439 tons in the first three quarters of the year [12]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice urging member units to enhance market risk control due to increasing volatility in international gold prices, with gold jewelry prices in China surpassing 1300 RMB per gram [1] - As of November 19, the international spot gold price briefly exceeded 4100 USD per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 55%, making gold one of the best-performing asset classes this year [1] - Major Chinese gold jewelry brands have reported prices for 24K gold jewelry exceeding 1300 RMB per gram, with specific brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook pricing at 1307 RMB and 1305 RMB per gram respectively [1] Group 2 - Global central banks have shown increased enthusiasm for gold purchases, with a net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-on-year rise [2] - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves reached approximately 2304.457 tons, marking a continuous increase for 12 months, although the recent increment was slightly lower than previous months [2] - Morgan Stanley suggests that many central banks, especially in emerging markets, will continue to increase their gold holdings despite potential reductions in buying intensity due to rising prices [3]

第十五届全国运动会临近尾声，本届全运会的召开也催动了一些行业的消费，比如处于高金价背景下的 黄金珠宝行业，全运会系列产品的热销给行业带来暖意。 此前受到国际金价高企的影响，我国黄金首饰消费整体受到一定冲击。据中国黄金（600916）协会的数 据和资料，2025年前三季度，我国黄金消费量682.730吨，同比下降7.95%。其中黄金首饰270.036吨， 同比下降32.50%。不同品类黄金产品的表现差异明显，轻克重、附加值高的首饰产品仍保持较强市场 吸引力，销售情况较好。 证券时报记者从行业龙头企业周大福珠宝集团方面了解到，近日该集团全运会系列产品受到市民欢迎。 据悉，自推出以来，周大福×全运会系列销售良好，精彩赛事进一步推动相关产品销售，尤其受到大湾 区市场青睐，其中以吉祥物为设计主题的产品最受欢迎。 ...