证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 24 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2025.8.18-2025.8.22） 证券分析师 投资要点： 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块表现： 联系人 新疆首家"胖东来"指导调改门店正式营业。汇嘉时代超市北京路店为胖东来在新 疆首家指导调改门店，调改从商品结构的优化、动线布局的合理性、便民服务设施 的增设、整体服务能力的提升以及员工福利的改善等多个维度上，实现了全新的成 长与蜕变。1）商品结构调整：超 3000 平方米的经营空间内，汇聚了一线、二线品 牌及本地地标性商品，全力满足民生需求，为消费者提供安全、实用、实在、时尚 的商品选择。2）动线布局调整：调改之后的卖场，取消了强制动线，拓宽卖场内通 道，使得购物动线更加流畅，为顾客提供更方便宽阔的购物空间。3）便民设施升级： 新增顾客休息区，设置多项便民服务设施，寄存柜、洗手台、纸巾、直饮水、微波 炉、充电宝等一应俱全，针对特殊需求顾客，推出宠物寄存 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International [19][44]. Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a strong performance in Q2 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by 46% and revenue growing by 23% year-on-year to $1.2 billion [1][24]. - The company expects revenue growth of 20%-21% for 2025, with specific segments like Technical Apparel and Outdoor Performance projected to grow by 22%-25% [2][24]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the sportswear segment, with a focus on companies demonstrating robust operational fundamentals [40]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Amer Sports' Q2 2025 revenue reached $1.2 billion, with significant regional growth: Americas (+6%), Greater China (+42%), EMEA (+18%), and Asia-Pacific (+45%) [1][24]. - The Technical Apparel segment saw a 23% revenue increase to $509 million, with a direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel growth of 31% [2][29]. - The Outdoor Performance segment, led by Salomon, experienced a 35% revenue increase to $414 million, driven by new store openings and strong DTC sales growth of 63% [3][33]. - The Ball & Racquet segment reported an 11% revenue increase to $314 million, with growth primarily from apparel and racquet products [4][35]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continued recovery in consumer spending in Q3 2025, with the sportswear segment expected to outperform the broader textile and apparel market [40]. - The overall health of inventory turnover ratios for major sports brands remains stable at 4-5, indicating a positive market environment [40]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong performance metrics, such as Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, which are expected to deliver sustainable growth [44]. - It also highlights the importance of companies with solid operational fundamentals and growth potential in the textile and apparel sector [40].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, marking the first time in five years that prices fell below 1000 yuan per gram, with major brands like Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang adjusting their prices accordingly [3][6][9] - Zhou Dafu's gold jewelry is now priced at 1006 yuan per gram, down from a peak of 1029 yuan, while Zhou Liufu has dropped to 985 yuan, reflecting a decrease of nearly 40 yuan [6][9] - Banks offer more competitive prices for gold bars, with China Construction Bank quoting 786 yuan per gram, which is nearly 200 yuan cheaper than jewelry prices, making it an attractive option for investors [7][9] Group 2 - The decline in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a strong US dollar, which reached a year-high index of 108.3, and a reduction in geopolitical risks that traditionally drive investors to gold as a safe haven [9][10] - There has been a notable shift in investment flows, with funds that previously sought refuge in gold now moving towards Bitcoin and US stocks, leading to a significant reduction in gold ETF holdings by 45 tons over three months [9][10] - The overall demand for gold jewelry has plummeted, with sales dropping by 26% in the first half of the year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards renting rather than purchasing gold items [11][12] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of understanding the purpose of gold purchases, whether for personal use or investment, and advises consumers to be cautious and informed to avoid potential pitfalls [13][14] - It emphasizes the need for consumers to compare prices across different banks and stores, as discrepancies can lead to significant savings, with some banks offering gold bars at prices that vary by as much as 10 yuan per gram [14][21] - The article concludes with a portrayal of a consumer, Aunt Chen, who opts for a bank gold bar instead of jewelry, reflecting a more rational and cautious approach to gold investment among the general public [21][22]

Core Insights - Shanghai's retail sales in July reached 129.138 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, significantly outperforming the national growth rate of 3.7% [1] Retail Performance - The total retail sales of goods in July amounted to 114.085 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, contributing to the overall retail growth [2] - The most notable growth was seen in cultural and office supplies, which surged by 78% year-on-year, followed by home appliances and audio-visual equipment, which grew by 49.7% [2] - The increase in these categories is attributed to seasonal factors and the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy, which has been upgraded to include multiple levels of subsidies [2] Jewelry Consumption - Jewelry consumption in Shanghai saw a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 21.5% in July, reversing previous declines [3] - The recovery is linked to major promotional events such as the "Five-Five Shopping Festival" and "Shanghai Summer," which stimulated consumer spending [3] Automotive Market - July marked the first year-on-year growth in automotive consumption in Shanghai, driven by local and national subsidy policies that reduced consumer costs [4] - The introduction of "anti-involution" policies has also contributed to a narrowing of retail discounts in the new energy vehicle market, supporting positive sales growth [4] Consumer Trends - Within essential consumer goods, there is a noticeable divergence: while the retail sales of grain and oil products have shown steady growth, categories like clothing and daily necessities have seen weaker performance or declines [5] - This trend indicates a shift in consumer preferences, where some items remain essential while others are becoming optional [5] Overall Consumption Environment - Shanghai has implemented various strategies to boost consumption, including financial support and creating a vibrant consumption atmosphere, which is reflected in the strong retail data for July [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "Qixi" festival marks the traditional consumption peak for the gold market, with consumers becoming increasingly cautious despite maintaining a certain level of market heat. The trend of "Pain Gold" is rapidly gaining popularity, with related gold jewelry becoming bestsellers [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The "Pain Gold" concept, originating from Japanese otaku culture, involves adding anime elements to items, allowing consumers to express their preferences publicly [3]. - Young consumers are showing a high interest in "Pain Gold," with many seeking IP collaboration gold jewelry, which combines emotional investment and value retention [3][5]. - The browsing volume for "Pain Gold" topics on social media has exceeded one million, indicating significant consumer interest [5]. Group 2: Pricing and Consumer Behavior - "Pain Gold" products often have a significant price differentiation compared to regular gold jewelry, with design premiums and copyright costs leading to higher prices [6]. - For example, a limited edition gold ornament weighing 100 grams is priced at 128,000 yuan, while a 1-gram gold note is being traded for nearly 1,600 yuan on second-hand platforms [5]. - The World Gold Council reports that gold ownership among young consumers aged 18 to 24 has risen to 62%, up from 37% in 2019, reflecting increased purchasing power [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Sentiment - Despite the ongoing promotional activities by various gold jewelry brands, consumer sentiment has shifted towards caution, particularly in light of high international gold prices [9][11]. - The China Gold Association notes that high gold prices are suppressing gold jewelry consumption, although lightweight, high-design, and high-value products remain popular [11]. - UBS forecasts that gold prices will continue to rise due to factors such as potential Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar, which may positively impact the performance of gold-related companies [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of "pain gold" (痛金) in the gold market, particularly among younger consumers, as a form of emotional consumption that combines investment and personal expression [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The upcoming "Qixi" festival marks a traditional peak season for gold consumption, with the market maintaining a certain level of activity despite consumers becoming more cautious [1][9]. - "Pain gold" has gained significant traction, with related jewelry becoming bestsellers, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards products that offer both emotional value and investment potential [1][5][6]. - The browsing volume for "pain gold" topics on social media has surpassed one million, indicating strong interest and engagement from consumers [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers, particularly those aged 18 to 24, show a high ownership rate of gold jewelry at 62%, a significant increase from 37% in 2019, highlighting a growing trend in gold consumption among this demographic [6]. - Consumers are increasingly cautious, waiting for gold prices to drop before making purchases, and showing a preference for lower-cost products like gold beans and small gold bars due to their lower processing fees [9][11]. - The pricing strategy for "pain gold" varies significantly, with many items priced per piece rather than by weight, often leading to higher prices due to design premiums and copyright costs [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Response - Major gold brands are launching promotional activities and new product lines to attract younger consumers, with collaborations with popular IPs in anime and gaming becoming a key strategy for growth [5][6]. - Despite high international gold prices, which have remained stable for four months, demand for lightweight, high-design jewelry continues to thrive, contributing positively to the profitability of retailers [11]. - Analysts suggest that while "pain gold" can yield significant short-term profits, companies should focus on building stable emotional connections with consumers to ensure long-term success [6].

老铺黄金的排队队伍正在取代爱马仕的队伍 作 者 | Drizzie 现在奢侈品还有巨头吗？ 老铺黄金创始人徐高明在昨日股东大会上的一句问话，令在场人士惊讶，随后在社交媒体上引起热烈讨论。 行业听多了本土企业家的夸张言论，往往习以为常，因为它们往往陷入话语与实绩反差、眼高手低的境地，然而老铺黄金的言论乍听夸张，但其自上市以 来股价翻了22倍的成绩令人侧目。 老铺黄金消费者与LV、爱马仕、卡地亚、宝格丽等五大奢侈品牌的用户平均重合率 老铺黄金2025年上半年收入和利润均取得令人惊讶的大幅增长，据时尚商业快讯数据，该公司营业收入猛涨251%至约123.5亿元，毛利大涨223%至47亿 元，经调整净利润大涨291%至23.5亿元。 对比国外奢侈品集团此前发布的业绩，LVMH上半年营收利润双降，收入下跌4%，净利润大跌22%，爱马仕上半年收入增长8%，但亚太市场仅增长 1.5%，历峰集团截至6月底的第一财季上涨11%，但中国市场下跌7%。 全球奢侈品市场失去中国消费者心智的过程中，老铺黄金逆势狂奔。 有接近市场的消息人士称，LV在中国市场的年销售额接近400亿，以上半年的业绩估测，老铺黄金预计2025年可能突破250亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved explosive revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by strong brand power and channel expansion, with revenue reaching 12.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 251.0%, and a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% year-on-year [2][3] - The company plans to continue its strategy of brand internationalization and market globalization, with new store openings in key commercial centers [9] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, same-store sales grew by 200.8%, with a loyal customer base of approximately 480,000 members, an increase of 130,000 from the end of 2024 [3] - The company opened 5 new stores in the first half of 2025, expanding its presence in high-end markets both domestically and internationally [4] - Revenue from the domestic market was 10.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232.8%, while overseas revenue reached 1.597 billion yuan, up 455.2% [4] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 38.1% due to the lag in price adjustments amid rising gold prices [5] - The adjusted net profit margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 19.0% due to the benefits of scale [5] - The company’s inventory increased to 8.685 billion yuan to support store optimization and new store expansion, with inventory turnover days decreasing from 195 days at the end of 2024 to 150 days [5] Future Projections - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 25.453 billion yuan, 34.151 billion yuan, and 45.897 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 199.3%, 34.2%, and 34.4% respectively [9] - The projected net profit for the same period is 4.576 billion yuan, 6.429 billion yuan, and 8.949 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 210.6%, 40.5%, and 39.2% respectively [9]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Market Overview - The report highlights that the financing balance has surpassed 2 trillion, indicating a significant increase in market activity and investor risk appetite, with net inflows in both northbound and southbound capital [3][22][23] - The overall liquidity situation shows a net outflow of 247.5 billion, with total funding supply at 77.8 billion and demand at 325.3 billion, suggesting a tightening liquidity environment [22][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in US-China negotiations and potential meetings between leaders, which could impact market sentiment [3][22] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - As of August 18, 2025, the valuation of the banking sector has increased by 32.53% over the past year, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.72 and a return on equity (ROE) of 8.92% [4] - The report identifies three main reasons for the persistent undervaluation of banks: asset quality risks, declining revenue capabilities, and high growth in net assets per share, which collectively contribute to a lower market valuation [4] - The theoretical PB corresponding to the current ROE is estimated at 0.63, indicating that a return to a PB of 1 would require an ROE of approximately 14.15% [4] Group 3: Power Generation Sector Insights - The report discusses the profitability disparities among thermal power assets in Guangdong, highlighting that different regions experience varying electricity prices, impacting overall profitability [6] - It notes that high-efficiency coal-fired power units are expected to perform better in terms of profitability, particularly the 1 million kilowatt units, which have a net profit per kilowatt-hour above 0.01 yuan [6] - The outlook for electricity prices is relatively stable, with expectations of limited downside, and a focus on capacity price changes in the future [6] Group 4: Company-Specific Performance - Spring Wind Power reported a revenue of 9.855 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, with a net profit of 1.002 billion yuan, up 41.35% [10][26] - The company achieved a gross margin of 28.38% and a net profit margin of 10.17%, indicating strong operational efficiency despite a slight decline in gross margin [10][26] - The report projects an upward revision in profit forecasts for Spring Wind Power, estimating profits of 1.858 billion, 2.483 billion, and 2.936 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [10][30] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - BeiGene reported a total revenue of 2.433 billion USD for H1 2025, reflecting a 45% year-on-year growth, with a significant turnaround in profitability [11][35] - The company’s core product, Zanubrutinib, saw global sales of 950 million USD in Q2 2025, marking a 49% increase year-on-year [11][35] - Future milestones include several drugs entering Phase III clinical trials, with expected approvals and significant revenue contributions anticipated in the coming years [11][35] Group 6: Retail and Consumer Goods Performance - Pop Mart achieved a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 204.4% increase, with overseas revenue growing by 440% [12][36] - The company’s gross margin improved to 70.3%, driven by an increase in overseas sales and product design optimization [12][36] - The report highlights the successful expansion of Pop Mart's IP portfolio, with significant contributions from various product categories, indicating a diversified revenue stream [12][37]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Laopu Gold (老铺黄金) has shown remarkable growth, with significant increases in revenue and net profit, leading to a surge in stock price after the mid-term report was released. However, the stock has experienced volatility and a significant decline from its peak, raising questions about its valuation and sustainability in the luxury market [1][2][6][7]. Financial Performance - Laopu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 251%, and a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8%. The adjusted net profit reached 2.35 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 291% [1]. - The stock price rose by 8.84% to 782 HKD per share following the report, temporarily halting a selling trend that had persisted for over a month [1]. Market Position and Valuation - As of August 20, Laopu Gold's market capitalization was 109 billion HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 78.03, significantly higher than its competitor Chow Tai Fook, which had a P/E of 24.11 [2]. - The brand is often referred to as the "Hermès of Gold," but questions arise regarding whether its high valuation is justified given its sales performance and market dynamics [3]. Sales and Growth Drivers - Laopu Gold achieved sales of 14.182 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 249.4% increase, averaging daily sales of 77.5 million yuan, which is notable in a sluggish consumer environment [3]. - The brand's high gross margin, consistently above 40%, is attributed to its unique ancient gold craftsmanship, which commands a premium price compared to traditional brands [3][8]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The market for ancient gold jewelry is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 157.3 billion yuan in 2023 and 219.3 billion yuan in 2024. Laopu Gold is expected to capture a growing share of this market [4]. - The brand's channel efficiency is highlighted by its performance in high-end shopping centers, with average sales per store significantly exceeding those of competitors [4]. Brand Strategy and Challenges - Laopu Gold's marketing strategy has successfully attracted a loyal customer base, with a significant increase in membership and high repurchase rates [10]. - However, the brand faces challenges in maintaining its luxury image and product uniqueness, as competition in the ancient gold market intensifies and consumer preferences evolve [10][11]. Operational Insights - The company relies heavily on outsourced production, with a declining proportion of self-manufactured products, raising concerns about its ability to uphold its luxury brand narrative [11][12]. - The brand's ambition to position itself alongside established luxury brands like Hermès faces scrutiny due to its operational model and market perception [16][17].