4月份制造业采购经理指数有所回落 （四）预期指数保持扩张。生产经营活动预期指数为52.1%，继续位于扩张区间。部分行业企业对近期 发展信心较强，其中食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产经营活动预期指数 均位于58.0%及以上较高景气区间。 非制造业商务活动指数继续保持扩张 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年4月中国采购经理指数 2025年4月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 4月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 一、制造业采购经理指数有所回落 4月份，受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，制造业PMI为49.0%， 回落至临界点以下。 （一）产需两端均有放缓。生产指数和新订单指数分别为49.8%和49.2%，比上月下降2.8和2.6个百分 点，制造业生产和市场需求均有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶、 ...

(二)高技术制造业持续向好。从重点行业看，高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平， 其生产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上，高技术制造业延续较好发展态势。装备制造业、消费品 行业和高耗能行业PMI分别为49.6%、49.4%和47.7%，比上月下降2.4、0.6和1.6个百分点，景气水平不 同程度回落。 (三)价格指数有所下降。受市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响，主要原材料购 进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，比上月下降2.8和3.1个百分点，制造业市场价格总体 水平有所下降。 4月份制造业采购经理指数有所回落 非制造业商务活动指数继续保持扩张 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年4月中国采购经理指数 2025年4月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 4月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 一、制造业采购经理 ...

金十数据4月30日讯，国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年4月中国采购经理指数。 4月份，受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，制造业PMI为49.0%， 回落至临界点以下。从重点行业看，高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平，其生产指 数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上，高技术制造业延续较好发展态势。装备制造业、消费品行业和高 耗能行业PMI分别为49.6%、49.4%和47.7%，比上月下降2.4、0.6和1.6个百分点，景气水平不同程度回 落。 受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，制造业PMI为回落至临界点以 下 相关链接 ...

利润增速有所回升，但改善基础有待夯实。 3月利润增速录得2.6%，较上月上行约3个百分点，主因基数走低 推动，环比增速也低于近五年中位数，结合工企产销率续创历年同期新低，指向利润改善基础有待夯实。 分 企业类型来看 ，私营和股份制企业利润改善明显，国企和外商企业均有回落。 从两年平均增速来看 ，仅私营 报 告 正 文 3 月收入、利润增速双双回升。 2025 年 3 月，规上工企营业收入录得 4.2% ，较上月有所回升。工企利 润增速录得 2.6% ，较上月上行约 3 个百分点，主因基数走低推动，环比增速也低于近五年中位数，结 合工企产销率续创历年同期新低，指向利润改善基础有待夯实。从 工企利润 的构成 来看， 3 月工企的 营收增速有所回升，主因当月 生产大幅改善 。 同时 营收利润率 增速略有上升，共同带动 本月利润增速 上行 。本月成本费用较上月微升， 利润率增速上行或受到春节前置的一定扰动。 往后看 ， 随着外部冲 击影响逐渐显现，叠加去年同期基数走高 ， 利润或将再度承压 ， 静待稳增长政策进一步加码显效 。 此外，有三点值得关注。 一是企业经营压力仍较高 。工企产销率续创近十年来同期新低，而同时其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight recovery, indicating a mixed economic outlook with strengths in the manufacturing sector and weaknesses in the construction industry [2][4][5]. Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for March is reported at 50.5%, an increase from the previous value of 50.2% [2][16]. - The production index stands at 52.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points from 52.5% [16]. - The new orders index has risen to 51.8% from 51.1%, while the new export orders index is at 49.0%, slightly up from 48.6% [16]. - The employment index is at 48.2%, down from 48.6%, indicating a contraction in employment [16]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, down from 51.0%, and the raw material inventory index is at 47.2%, slightly up from 47.0% [16]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The construction sector's PMI is at 53.4%, down from 56.2% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown [5][10]. - The construction employment index has dropped to 41.4% from 45.6%, reflecting a significant decline in workforce [10]. - The new orders index for construction is at 43.5%, down from 46.8%, highlighting ongoing demand concerns [10]. - The basic raw materials PMI is at 49.3%, down from 49.8%, influenced by the weak construction sector [10]. Group 3: Economic Assessment - The comprehensive PMI index for Q1 is at 50.9%, higher than Q4 2023 and Q3 2024, but lower than Q4 2024 and Q1-Q2 2024 [3][13]. - The manufacturing sector shows strength, particularly in the midstream equipment manufacturing, with a PMI of 52% [4][9]. - The EPMI index for March is reported at 59.6%, indicating robust performance in the equipment manufacturing sector [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The economy is continuing to improve, with March manufacturing PMI at 50.5, service PMI at 50.3, and construction PMI at 53.4, all showing month-on-month increases [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.3 points from the previous month, while service PMI also rose by 0.3 points, and construction PMI saw a 0.7 point increase [1][4]. - The export order index has shown resilience, rising slightly, indicating external demand remains stable despite tariff pressures [1][5]. - Small enterprise PMI improved significantly by 3.3 points in March, reflecting better financial conditions [1][5]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.3, indicating relative strength compared to previous periods [5]. Group 2: Recovery Characteristics - Despite some positive indicators, the overall data reflects a weak recovery, with manufacturing PMI lower than the previous year's value of 50.8 and below the historical average of 0.7 points for March [2][5]. - Service sector performance is also lagging, with March values lower than seasonal expectations, showing a cumulative decline compared to similar periods in previous years [5][6]. - The construction sector's performance is being hindered by insufficient support from infrastructure investments, as indicated by the lower demand from this sector [2][7]. Group 3: Price Indices and Employment - Both price indices showed a month-on-month decline, with expectations for March PPI indicating slight negative growth [10][12]. - Employment indicators in manufacturing, services, and construction sectors showed a decline in March, although the overall trend since September has been upward [12][13]. - The BCI enterprise hiring index also decreased, suggesting a cautious approach to hiring amid structural changes in labor demand [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that the economic trajectory in 2025 may resemble that of 2016, with gradual improvements expected in consumer spending, local investment, and price indices [12][13]. - The overall economic growth is anticipated to experience fluctuations throughout the year, with a focus on validating the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth [14].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises' revenue and profit growth rates have both declined in the first two months of 2025, indicating a deterioration in profitability and operational pressure on companies [1][7][14]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In January-February 2025, the revenue of industrial enterprises grew by 2.8%, a decrease from the previous month [1][9]. - Profit growth recorded a decline of -0.3%, dropping over 10 percentage points compared to the previous month, with a two-year average growth rate also showing a downturn [1][7]. Production and Sales Performance - The production and sales rate of industrial enterprises reached a ten-year low for the same period, influenced by the early Spring Festival holiday [3][14]. - The asset-liability ratio of enterprises hit a ten-year high, indicating increased operational pressure [3][14]. Inventory Trends - The nominal inventory growth rate increased to 4.2%, while the actual inventory growth rate rose to 6.5%, reflecting a recovery in inventory levels [5][14]. - Certain midstream manufacturing and downstream consumer goods industries are still in the process of restocking, while industries like paper, chemicals, and synthetic fibers are actively reducing inventory [5][8]. Industry-Specific Insights - The consumer goods sector, particularly in automotive and home appliances, showed significant improvement, driven by government policies such as vehicle replacement subsidies [8][9]. - The mining industry experienced a substantial decline in profit growth, while the raw materials sector continued to recover, and consumer goods industries saw notable profit increases [7][8]. Cost and Profit Margin Analysis - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises was 85.11 yuan, with expenses at 8.56 yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [9]. - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises fell to 4.53%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal factors [9].

2025 年 03 月 02 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费 事件点评 PMI 点评（2025.2） 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？— —美国 CPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.13 油价回升服务走高，CPI 稍好于预期—— CPI、PPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节后 PMI 如期明显反弹，投资回暖快于消费。由于 1 月跌幅较深，1 ...