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豫光转债盘中下跌2.02%报135.614元/张,成交额2473.07万元,转股溢价率11.27%
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-06-19 03:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and characteristics of the convertible bond issued by Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd., including its market price, trading volume, and conversion details [1] - Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Group, established in 1957, and is a major player in the non-ferrous metal industry in China, consistently ranking in the "Top 500 Chinese Enterprises" and "Top 500 Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises" [2] - The company has been recognized as a national-level green factory and is among the first batch of enterprises to pass lead and recycled lead access standards [2] Group 2 - For the first quarter of 2025, Yuguang Gold Lead reported a revenue of 10.3953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 228.8 million yuan, up 35.38% year-on-year [2] - As of June 2025, the shareholding structure of Yuguang Gold Lead is highly dispersed, with 65,160 shareholders and an average of 16,730 circulating shares per person [2] - The convertible bond has a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity of 6 years, with a conversion price set at 6.17 yuan, starting from February 17, 2025 [1]
有色金属周报(铅):基本面暂无变动,铅价维持区间整理-20250617
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 04:01
Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Fundamental Remains Unchanged, Lead Price Maintains Range-bound Consolidation [1] - Report Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Report Institution: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, some primary lead smelters have routine maintenance plans, and the start - up of secondary lead smelters is highly uncertain due to raw material issues. The demand side is also in the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation in the lead market. It is expected that the price will maintain range - bound consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on lead prices [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots increased by 1.67% week - on - week to 16,775 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 0.98% to 16,945 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.94% to 1,992.5 US dollars/ton [12] 2. Primary Lead - **2.1 Ore Tightness Pattern Unchanged, TC Stable**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat week - on - week at 600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 45 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of ore tightness remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of June 6, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 46.7 yuan/ton [25][31] - **2.2 Primary Lead Start - up Rate Increased to 70.79%**: Some regional smelters are about to enter the maintenance period, which may have a certain impact on production [32][36] - **2.3 Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelting Enterprises**: The total expected output this week is 50,185 tons, a decrease from the previous week. Some enterprises in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia are expected to have routine maintenance [38] 3. Secondary Lead - **3.1 Scrap Battery Price Firm**: As of June 13, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The tight supply pattern of scrap batteries has not improved. The losses of secondary lead smelters have narrowed slightly. As of June 13, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 393 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 614 yuan/ton [43][46][51] - **3.2 Secondary Lead Raw Material Inventory Decreased, Finished Product Inventory Increased**: As of June 13, the secondary lead raw material inventory was 128,400 tons, and the finished product inventory was 25,000 tons. Considering price and quality factors, downstream buyers mostly purchase primary lead. The secondary lead factory inventory has continued to accumulate [53][55] - **3.3 Secondary Lead Start - up Rate Declined**: The secondary lead enterprise start - up rate decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 32.1% week - on - week. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 35,300 tons, showing a decline. Due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, many secondary lead smelters in multiple regions have reduced production or intermittently shut down for heat preservation [56] 4. Lead Battery - The lead battery start - up rate increased by 11.8 percentage points to 72.19% week - on - week. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the start - up of lead batteries has returned to normal, and the increase mainly comes from the electric bicycle and automotive lead battery sectors [60][62] 5. Import and Export - As of June 6, the refined lead export loss was about 2,500 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the import profit was - 548.86 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [67][72] 6. Social Inventory - **6.1 Domestic Social Inventory Increased**: As of June 12, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 54,700 tons, showing an increase. The inventory continued to rise due to the widening of the spot - futures price difference and the delivery and position transfer of holders [76][80] - **6.2 SHFE Inventory Increased, LME Inventory Decreased**: As of June 13, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase; the LME inventory was 265,000 tons, showing a decrease [83][85] - **6.3 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance situation has fluctuated in different months, with inventory changes also varying [86]
整理:每日期货市场要闻速递(6月13日)
news flash· 2025-06-12 23:35
Group 1: Steel and Coal Industry - Hebei Steel Group's silicon manganese production in June is 11,700 tons, slightly up from 11,600 tons in May [1] - Rebar production decreased to 2.0757 million tons, down by 108,900 tons or 4.98% from the previous week, with inventory levels also declining for the third consecutive week [1] - Average profit per ton of coke across 30 independent coking plants in China is -46 yuan, with regional variations in profitability [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - China's cotton import forecast for the 2024/2025 season has been revised down to 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month due to U.S. tariffs [1] - Brazil's soybean export forecast for June 8-14 is 3.5645 million tons, down from 4.4739 million tons the previous week, while soybean meal exports increased significantly [2] - The USDA reports that U.S. soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 4.34 billion bushels, with ending stocks projected at 295 million bushels [3] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory reached 1.6863 million tons, increasing by 59,300 tons or 3.64% week-on-week [3] - The theoretical profit for ammonia-soda method soda ash has decreased by 29.20 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Lead Industry - A major recycled lead smelter in North China has temporarily halted production due to raw material shortages, with plans to increase procurement prices [3] - A primary lead smelting company in East China has postponed its scheduled maintenance from June to August due to satisfactory equipment performance [3]
有色金属周报(铅):区间整理-20250609
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 11:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase steadily, while the resumption of production of secondary lead is highly uncertain. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is continuously accumulating, which drags down the lead price. However, considering that both lead concentrates and waste batteries are in a tight supply pattern, there is also strong support below the lead price. In the short term, the lead price will maintain a range - bound movement, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on the lead price [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.76% month - on - month to 16,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures rose by 0.96% to 16,780 yuan/ton. The closing price (electronic trading) of LME lead increased by 0.51% to 1,974 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 Raw Material Situation - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 600 yuan/metal ton month - on - month, while the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 US dollars/dry ton to - 45 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply expectation of lead concentrates remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of May 30, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 39.6 yuan/ton [31]. - As of June 6, the average price of waste batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The tight supply pattern of waste batteries remains unchanged, but secondary lead smelters are still in a loss - making situation. The comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 502 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 720 yuan/ton [46][53]. 3.3 Supply Situation - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased to 70.46% month - on - month. Some smelters increased production and postponed maintenance, leading to an increase in the operating rate of primary lead smelters. The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 51,485 tons [32][38]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises decreased by 3.8 percentage points to 36.2% month - on - month. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 39,300 tons, showing a decline. Due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, many secondary lead smelters reduced production or intermittently shut down the furnace for heat preservation. The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, while the finished product inventory increased [59]. 3.4 Demand Situation - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries decreased by 10.1 percentage points to 60.39% month - on - month. Affected by the off - season of consumption, some downstream enterprises reduced inventory pressure by extending holidays and reducing production, especially electric bicycle enterprises, which led to a decline in the operating rate of the sector [65]. 3.5 Import and Export Situation - As of May 30, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of June 6, the import profit was - 745.19 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [75]. 3.6 Inventory Situation - As of June 5, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 53,900 tons, showing an increase. The spread between the spot and futures prices widened, and holders were more willing to deliver and transfer positions, resulting in inventory accumulation. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase [84]. - As of June 6, the inventory of SHFE refined lead increased to 47,900 tons, while the LME inventory decreased to 281,300 tons [87].
豫光转债盘中上涨2.95%报139.048元/张,成交额706.62万元,转股溢价率16.29%
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-06-06 02:06
Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and characteristics of the convertible bond issued by Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd., which has seen a price increase and has a specific conversion rate and premium [1] - The convertible bond has a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity of 6 years, with a coupon rate that increases over the years, starting from 0.10% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [1] - The conversion price for the bond is set at 6.17 yuan, with the conversion period starting on February 17, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Group, established in 1957, and is a major player in the non-ferrous metal industry in China [2] - The company has been recognized as one of the "Top 500 Enterprises in China" and "Top 500 Manufacturing Enterprises in China," ranking 9th among the "Top 100 Enterprises in Henan" in 2023 [2] - For the first quarter of 2025, Yuguang Gold Lead reported a revenue of 10.3953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 228.8 million yuan, up 35.38% year-on-year [2] - As of May 2025, the shareholding structure of Yuguang Gold Lead is highly dispersed, with 62,930 shareholders and an average holding of 1.732 million shares per person [2]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游接货积极性仍有限,铅价维持震荡格局-20250605
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 02:54
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-05 下游接货积极性仍有限 铅价维持震荡格局 库存方面:2025-06-04,SMM铅锭库存总量为5.0万吨,较上周同期变化0.05万吨。截止6月5日,LME铅库存为281550 吨,较上一交易日变化-1600吨。 策略 绝对价格:谨慎偏空 目前铅品种处于需求淡季,并且在节后下游也并无明显的回暖迹象,整体观望态度浓重,因此目前操作仍然以逢 高卖出套保为主。 期权策略:卖出看涨 风险 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面:2025-06-04,LME铅现货升水为-19.72美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16425 元/吨,SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-15.00元/吨,SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/ 吨至16450元/吨,SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16450元/吨,SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化75元/吨至16525元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至25元/吨,废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10125元/吨,废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10000元/吨,废黑壳较前一交 ...
有色金属周报(铅):关注原料支撑有效性-20250604
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 07:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material end strongly supports the lead price, with tight supplies of lead concentrates and waste batteries. The supply of electrolytic lead is increasing steadily, while consumption is in the off - season, which is the biggest negative factor for the lead market. Considering the tight supply of raw materials, it is expected that the lead price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on the lead price [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.50% to 16,400 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 1.42% to 16,620 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LME lead (electronic trading) decreased by 1.50% to 1,964 US dollars/ton [12]. - The domestic lead price basis and the LME lead price basis showed certain fluctuations, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [13][18]. 3.2 Stable Operation, Loose Supply of Primary Lead - The processing fees of domestic and imported lead concentrates remained flat, with no obvious change in the supply - demand situation at the mine end, and the smelter's profit fluctuated slightly. As of May 30, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 39.6 yuan/ton [25]. - The operating rate of primary lead increased to 69% month - on - month. Some smelters in different regions had maintenance plans or production recovery situations [26][31]. - The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered showed certain changes in different regions, with a total output of 50,185 tons in the week ending May 30 [33]. 3.3 Shortage of Raw Materials + Poor Demand, Low Operating Rate of Secondary Lead - As of May 30, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 125 yuan/ton. The profits of large - scale and small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises were - 570 yuan/ton and - 787 yuan/ton respectively [41][46]. - As of May 30, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 146,300 tons, and the finished product inventory was 20,900 tons. Due to losses, smelters held back goods, resulting in inventory accumulation, and the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down [50]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 3.3 percentage points to 40% month - on - month. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 43,200 tons. However, due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, the probability of smelters suspending production and maintenance in the future increased [53]. 3.4 Decline in the Operating Rate of Lead - Acid Batteries - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries decreased by 2.21 percentage points to 79.45% month - on - month. Affected by the off - season consumption and holidays, the operating rate of batteries declined. Currently, the inventory of dealers has decreased, but they still maintain a cautious attitude and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [57]. 3.5 Closure of Import - Export Profit Windows - As of May 30, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 642.79 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Accumulation of Social Inventory - As of June 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 49,900 tons, an increase in inventory. Due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and month - end inventory checks, downstream purchases were weak, leading to the accumulation of lead ingot social inventory [72]. - As of May 30, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 46,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and the LME inventory was 286,200 tons, also showing a decrease [75]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import and export, consumption, and inventory changes of primary lead and secondary lead from February 2024 to April 2025 [76].
多空因素胶着,铅价高位盘整
Report Title - Lead Weekly Report, dated May 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs and the cooling inflation and economic slowdown in the US increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, improving market risk appetite, and the lead price followed the non-ferrous sector to run strongly. Fundamentally, primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, with supply mainly recovering. In the off-season of consumption, the supply of waste batteries did not improve significantly, the procurement cost of recyclers increased, and they were reluctant to sell at low prices. Some previously减产 secondary lead smelters in Guangxi and Jiangsu restarted production, but under the background of raw material shortage and poor profits, smelters mostly operated at low loads, and the supply did not recover significantly. However, after the lead price rebounded, the profits of enterprises were repaired, and the expectation of a further expansion of production cuts weakened. On the consumption side, lead-acid batteries remained in the seasonal off-season, mostly digesting inventory and mainly making rigid purchases. Overall, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and the macro sentiment weakened marginally. Currently, the cost side supports the lead price, but consumption remains in the off-season. The rebound of the lead price repairs the profits of secondary lead smelters, the expectation of an expansion of production cuts weakens, and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, suppressing the lead price trend. In the short term, long and short factors are intertwined, the lead price trend is stalemated, and it maintains a high-level consolidation operation [3][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,805 yuan/ton to 16,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,985.5 US dollars/ton to 2,006 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.5 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.05; the SHFE inventory increased from 49,504 tons to 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 253,425 tons to 248,850 tons, a decrease of 4,575 tons; the social inventory increased from 47,500 tons to 56,000 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased from -90 yuan/ton to -130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated horizontally around 17,000 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. On Friday night, it fluctuated narrowly. The concern about the US economic recession eased, the pressure on risk assets weakened, and LME lead continued to rebound, but the rebound pace slowed down near 2,000 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 2,006 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, as of May 16th, the price of Chihong lead in the Shanghai market was 16,935 - 16,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2506 contract; the price of Honglu lead was 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract; the price of Jiangtong lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. Sellers sold goods according to the market, a few enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the quotation changed from a discount to a premium. The ex-factory price of electrolytic lead smelters' factory-picked goods remained at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the SMM 1 lead average price, and the secondary refined lead was quoted at a discount of 120 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid purchases and preferred large-discount goods with low prices [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 650 yuan/metal ton and -30 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat compared to the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai-London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory situations, 1 lead premium and discount situations, LME lead premium and discount situations, primary lead and secondary refined lead price differences, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profit situations, lead ore processing fees, primary lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss situations [10][11][15][16][18][21][22][24][25]
有色金属周报(铅):上有阻力下有支撑,铅价区间整理-20250513
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 06:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material end strongly supports the lead price as the global lead concentrate supply has long - term incremental expectations but short - term uncertainties, and the supply of scrap batteries is tight [3]. - On the supply side, primary lead supply is stable with a slight increase due to the resumption of previously - shut - down refineries, while secondary lead production cuts are expanding because of raw material shortages and high costs [3]. - The demand side is in the off - season, with battery distributors and producers being cautious in lead ingot purchases, and spot transactions moving towards discount trading [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, secondary lead producers hold back goods or quote high due to cost pressures, and inventory accumulation may slow down as production cuts expand. Primary lead holders actively sell [3]. - In the short term, the lead price is expected to remain range - bound between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and future attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials and the macro - environment on the lead price [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.89% to 16,625 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 0.53% to 16,805 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.54% to 1,981.5 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 Stable Operation, Loose Supply of Primary Lead - The processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates remained flat, and the smelter's profit fluctuated slightly. As of April 30, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues) was - 37.48 yuan/ton [32]. - The primary lead operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 67.35%. Some refineries have maintenance plans [33][39]. - The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 49,995 tons, with a slight increase compared to the previous period [40]. 3.3 Shortage of Raw Materials, Further Expansion of Secondary Lead Production Cuts - As of May 9, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous period. The supply of scrap batteries was tight, and the procurement prices of secondary lead refineries were high [48]. - As of May 9, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 653 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 878 yuan/ton [54]. - As of May 9, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 105,900 tons, and the finished product inventory was 17,400 tons. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [58]. - The secondary lead operating rate decreased by 4.81 percentage points to 37.65%. The weekly output decreased, and some refineries were forced to shut down due to raw material shortages [61]. 3.4 Post - holiday Resumption of Work and Production, Off - season Situation Remains Unchanged - The lead battery operating rate increased by 9.73 percentage points to 64.79%. After the May Day holiday, battery enterprises resumed work, but the off - season situation continued, and new orders were weak [71]. 3.5 Import and Export Profit Window Closed - As of April 30, the refined lead export loss was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of May 9, the import profit was - 623.9 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [83]. 3.6 Social Inventory Accumulation - As of May 8, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 47,500 tons, an increase in inventory. Weak demand and the expansion of the futures - spot price difference led to an increase in the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse [89]. - As of May 9, SHFE refined lead inventory increased to 49,500 tons, and LME inventory decreased to 253,400 tons [92]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory of lead from February 2024 to March 2025 [93].
有色金属周报(铅):成本支撑与需求偏弱相博弈,铅价区间整理-20250429
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 07:39
Report Information - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Cost Support vs. Weak Demand, Lead Price Ranges Consolidate [1] - Report Date: April 29, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The global lead concentrate supply is expected to increase in the long - term, but there is short - term uncertainty, with the mine end in tight balance and stable TC. Tight scrap battery supply strongly supports lead prices [2]. - Primary lead production increases as previously - shut - down smelters resume operations, while secondary lead production decreases significantly due to raw material shortages and high costs. This supports lead prices, but the off - season consumption and approaching May Day holiday limit price increases. The lead price is expected to range between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with attention to raw material and macro factors [2]. - Lead batteries for electric bicycles and cars are in the off - season. Distributors mainly make just - in - time purchases and consume existing inventories. Producers are cautious in buying lead ingots, preferring low - priced sources [2]. - Secondary lead producers hold back inventory due to cost pressure and losses, while primary lead holders actively sell and reduce premiums at the end of the month and before the May Day holiday, leading to a decrease in social inventory [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM1 lead ingot average price rose 0.45% to 16,875 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price rose 0.30% to 16,845 yuan/ton; London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose 1.20% to 1,945 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Basis**: Data on the basis between different contracts (e.g., continuous one - continuous two) is presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [15]. 2. Primary Lead Production Changes - **TC and Smelter Profit**: Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained at 650 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee at - 20 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profit (excluding by - product revenue) reached 28.23 yuan/ton as of April 18 [27]. - **Production Capacity and Output**: The primary lead production capacity utilization rate increased by 2.98 percentage points to 66.23%. The weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises increased in some regions due to the resumption of previously - shut - down production in Henan, while some maintenance was postponed [28][36]. 3. Secondary Lead Production Changes - **Scrap Battery Price and Profit**: As of April 25, the average scrap battery price was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. Tight supply led to price increases and strong hoarding sentiment. Large - scale secondary lead enterprises had a comprehensive profit of - 563 yuan/ton, and small - and medium - scale enterprises had - 794 yuan/ton [45][51]. - **Inventory and Production**: Secondary lead raw material inventory decreased to 129,600 tons, and finished product inventory increased to 12,740 tons as of April 25. The secondary lead enterprise production capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.28 percentage points to 61.18%, and weekly production declined [54][55]. 4. Consumption - **Battery Production Capacity Utilization**: The lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased by 1.06 percentage points to 73.56%. Despite the off - season, overall production remained high, and producers preferred deeply - discounted lead ingots [64]. 5. Import and Export - **Profit Window**: As of April 17, refined lead export suffered a loss of about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of April 28, the import profit was - 545.42 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [76]. 6. Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of April 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 46,200 tons, showing a decrease. The preference for primary lead in downstream purchases led to inventory reduction, but the process may slow down during the May Day holiday [86]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of April 25, SHFE refined lead inventory was 45,700 tons, showing a decrease; LME inventory was 274,100 tons, also decreasing [91]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows data on primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from January 2024 to March 2025 [92].