Economic Performance - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the highest growth rate since 2024 [3] - The production index of the wholesale and retail industry, as well as the accommodation and catering industry, accelerated by 1.6 and 0.9 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [3] Consumption Trends - The growth in consumption is attributed to the "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods and the initiation of the "618" shopping festival [3] - Retail sales of home appliances, audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture increased by 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% year-on-year respectively [3] New Economic Drivers - The service production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year in May, while the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 9% and 8.6% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth [4] - High-tech service industry investment rose by 11.6% year-on-year from January to May, with aerospace and equipment manufacturing investment growing by 24.2% [4] Employment and Price Stability - The urban unemployment rate in May was 5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight year-on-year decline, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed an expanded increase, indicating stable market supply and demand [5] Policy Outlook - The government has a robust policy toolkit to dynamically adjust macroeconomic policies to ensure stable economic operation [2][5] - New fiscal policies are expected to support consumer goods replacement and may include interest rate cuts [5]

摘要 第一， 5 月经济数据公布。六大口径数据中，消费、服务业高于前值；工业、投资、出口、地产销售低于前值。生产法 之下的 GDP 依旧较高，按照工业增加值、服务业生产指数公布值模拟，实际 GDP 同比大约在 5.35% 左右；支出法 之下的终端需求则有所分化，其中消费明显超预期，出口、投资、地产销售不同程度放缓 。 第二， 工业增加值韧性中放缓。5月同比5.8%，出口放缓所带来从需求向供给的传递可能是原因之一，可以看到同期 产销率有所下降。从主要产品来看，产量增速较高的仍主要是工业机器人、集成电路、太阳能电池、汽车等领域；新兴 产业产品中，增速较低的主要是智能手机，月度和年累计均在同比负增区间。手机内销增速较高，但出口增速较低。水 泥产量同比降幅扩大，反映建筑业投资处于偏弱状态 。 第三， 社零增速出现跃升。 5 月同比达 6.4% ，其中城市消费修复速度更快，城市消费在 2023 年下半年 - 今年 2 月一直弱于农村消费，今年 3 月起开始高于农村， 5 月领先幅度进一步扩大。增速较高的门类包括家电、通讯器材、 文化办公、体育娱乐、家具、金银珠宝、粮油食品、烟酒等，其中家电、通讯器材的增速均处于年内新高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of consumption in May has significantly contributed to the stability and progress of China's national economy, showcasing the immense potential of the Chinese market [1][9]. Consumption Performance - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month and the highest growth rate since early 2024 [1][2]. - The growth rate of 6.4% exceeded market expectations, which were around 5% [1][2]. - The month-on-month growth rate was 0.93%, marking the highest rate since May 2023 [1]. Factors Driving Consumption Growth - Several factors contributed to the acceleration of consumption in May, including the "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, the "6·18" online shopping promotion, and favorable holiday consumption trends [2]. - During the "May Day" and "Dragon Boat Festival" holidays, domestic tourism increased significantly, with a 6.4% year-on-year rise in the number of travelers during the "May Day" holiday [2]. - Retail sales of major household appliances and communication equipment saw substantial year-on-year growth, with increases of 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales growth [2]. Economic Stability Indicators - From January to May, the retail sales of services increased by 5.2%, with May's service production index growing by 6.2% year-on-year [4]. - The unemployment rate in urban areas was 5% in May, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decrease, but the core CPI, excluding food and energy, indicated a stable market supply and demand relationship [8]. Industrial Production and Trade - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, maintaining a relatively high growth rate despite a slight decrease from the previous month [6][7]. - The total import and export volume in May increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.3%, reflecting the diversified development of foreign trade [6]. Future Economic Outlook - The overall economic operation is expected to remain stable in the first half of the year, with GDP growth projected to exceed 5.0% in the second quarter [10]. - The government is advised to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to stimulate investment and consumption growth [10][11].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 5 月零售加速，不只是国补 6 月 16 日，统计局公布 5 月经济数据。如何看待经济数据的边际变化？ 第一，外贸仍有压力，拖累工业生产，预计 6 月外贸拖累有望下降。5 月工业增加值同比 5.8%，较前月放 缓 0.3 个百分点。出口交货值同比增长 0.6%，较前月的 0.9%继续小幅放缓。5 月 12 日中美达成日内瓦协议， 对美出口订单在 5 月中下旬可能逐渐释放，对 5 月工业生产拉动还不明显，或更多体现在 6-7 月数据上。从对美 发船数据来看，6 月上旬已从 5 月下旬的同比-20%回到 0 附近。8 月开始出口能否维持较高增速，取决于前期透 支的出口需求和新协议达成的关税税率。 二季度 GDP 同比 5%+或可期。5 月服务业生产指数同比较前月小幅加快 0.2 个百分点至 6.2%。综合 5 月 工业和服务业加权同比增长 6.1%，较 4 月的 6.0%略有加快，4-5 月平均值与一季度基本持平。如 6 月工业服务 业加权同比仍在 5.5-6.0%区间，二季度 GDP 同比将达 5 ...

Employment Situation - In May, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement and overall stability in employment [1] - The unemployment rate for the youth demographic has been declining for three consecutive months, reflecting a stable employment situation [1] Economic Factors Supporting Employment - Economic growth has been stable, supported by proactive macro policies that have effectively countered negative external factors, thus stabilizing labor demand [3] - In May, the industrial added value and service production index grew by 5.8% and 6.2% respectively, maintaining overall stability compared to April [3] Industry Performance - Certain industries with significant employment capacity, such as wholesale retail and accommodation catering, have shown positive growth, with production indices increasing by 8.4% and 6.2% respectively in May [3] - The implementation of consumption policies and holiday economic activities has contributed to market expansion, further stabilizing employment [3] Policy Support for Employment - The government has intensified efforts to implement employment stabilization policies, including support for enterprise job expansion and individual employment subsidies [3] - Social security and employment expenditures in the general public budget increased by 8.5% from January to April, outpacing overall budget growth [4] Challenges and Future Actions - Despite the overall stability, challenges remain due to complex external environments affecting the labor market, with mismatches in labor supply and demand persisting [6] - The government plans to enhance vocational training and improve labor market matching to promote full employment and improve employment quality [6] Educational Initiatives - The "100-day sprint" initiative for the 2025 college graduates is being implemented nationwide to enhance employment opportunities [6] - Collaborative projects between universities and enterprises have been established to align educational outcomes with market needs, with over 2000 universities and 2300 enterprises participating [7]

6月16日，国家统计局发布5月国民经济运行数据。供给端，5月全国规上工业增加值同比增长5.8%（预期 5.6%），服务业生产指数当月同比增长6.2%。需求端，5月固定资产投资累计增长3.7%（预期4.1%），其中， 基建和制造业累计增速分别为10.4%（预期9.7%）和8.5%（预期8.5%），房地产投资累计同比-10.7%（预期增 速-10.5%）。社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%（预期4.8%）。 图1：消费提振，投资放缓 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 5月关税冲击显现，我国经济顶住压力，多数指标实现超预期增长，呈现三个特征。一是外需放缓节奏开始， 内外需增速差收敛。 5月人民币计价出口金额同比增长6.3%，较5月显著下行3pct，出口增速放缓，源自中美 双边贸易额大幅收缩三成，转口贸易和非美贸易伙伴需求边际回落。 二是消费提速支撑，增速同时高于市场 预期、投资和生产。 5月社零增速上行1.3pct至6.4%，以旧换新政策扩围显效、购物节前置、假日消费热度高 企，合力推高单月增速升至2020年以来次高位【注释1】。 三是房地产市场以价换量趋向价跌量缓。 70大中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic resilience and potential of China continue to manifest, with stable economic operation and sustained growth in foreign trade despite external pressures [1][10]. Economic Performance - In May, China's total import and export value increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.3% [10]. - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since last year [1][9]. Industrial Growth - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year in May, supported by policy measures and active adjustments by enterprises [4][8]. - The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9%, contributing 54.3% to industrial production [8]. Service Sector Expansion - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, with growth accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [8]. - Retail and accommodation sectors showed significant growth, with production indices increasing by 1.6 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively [9]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - The growth of retail sales accelerated, particularly in the service sector, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in May, up by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - Policies promoting consumption, such as trade-in programs and online sales promotions, contributed to the increase in market sales [8]. Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The high-tech manufacturing industry saw an added value growth of 8.6%, while the digital product manufacturing industry grew by 9.1%, both outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [9][12]. - The production of new energy vehicles and solar batteries increased by 31.7% and 27.8%, respectively, indicating robust growth in emerging industries [9]. Employment and Price Stability - The urban unemployment rate in May was 5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight year-on-year decline, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed an expanded increase, indicating stable market supply and demand [8]. Policy Support and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policies have been effective in stabilizing the economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development [11][12]. - The policy toolbox is well-stocked, allowing for dynamic adjustments to respond to changing circumstances, ensuring continued support for economic stability [12].

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，5月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长6.2%，比上月加快0.2个百分 点。分行业看，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业，批发和零售业生产指数同比分 别增长11.2%、8.9%、8.4%，分别快于服务业生产指数5.0、2.7、2.2个百分点。（央视新闻） ...

Economic Overview - In May, the overall economic operation remained stable with signs of improvement, showcasing strong resilience and vitality in China's economy [1][2] - The retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The industrial production saw a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in May, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61% [1] Service Sector - The service sector's production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year in May, which is an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May, the total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is stabilizing, with the price decline in new residential properties continuing to narrow in May [3][4] - The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing from January to May decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, remaining stable compared to the previous four months [3] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 7.15 million square meters in May, marking three consecutive months of decline [3] Policy Measures - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has effectively enhanced consumption vitality and supported production growth [5] - The policy toolbox is well-stocked, allowing for dynamic adjustments to respond to changing circumstances, ensuring continued economic stability [6]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has announced the first batch of pilot cities for retail innovation, with Hangzhou among the 38 selected cities [1] - Hangzhou aims to enhance its retail sector through targeted strategies such as "one store, one policy" for scene-based transformation, digital empowerment, and supply chain improvements over a two-year pilot period [1][2] Group 1: Retail Innovation Strategies - Hangzhou will focus on transforming existing commercial facilities to improve supply quality, optimize the consumer environment, and foster new business models [1] - The city plans to promote international upgrades in core business districts, supporting the development of international landmark commercial centers [1] - Initiatives include hosting over 100 night economy themed events annually to enhance the "Colorful Night Hangzhou" brand [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Enhancement - The city will explore an "e-commerce + modern logistics + supply chain financing" operational model to improve supply chain efficiency [2] - Hangzhou encourages leading enterprises to provide external supply chain services and aims to enhance the circulation of agricultural products [2] - Regular events like smart product expos will be held to position Hangzhou as a hub for smart products [2] Group 3: Economic Impact and Development Goals - The retail innovation is significant for expanding domestic demand and facilitating economic circulation [2] - Hangzhou aims to become an international "competition" and "conference" city, as well as a "World Food City," promoting cultural, tourism, and sports consumption [2] - The city is committed to creating a new consumption innovation city and a benchmark for service consumption, enhancing urban accessibility [2] Group 4: Retail Sector Growth - The retail sector in Hangzhou has been expanding, with diverse retail formats and a notable increase in online retail scale [2] - The city has successfully branded itself through events like food festivals, attracting both domestic and international brands, and fostering a thriving first-store economy [2]