1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron alloy's recent price increase is due to strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. After the anti - involution meeting among iron alloy enterprises last Friday, both iron alloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment influence and capital games, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which exerts downward pressure on iron alloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of iron alloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually destocking, while silicon manganese is destocking at a faster rate. The iron alloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high. Affected by the less - than - expected policy this week, iron alloys have fallen sharply and gradually returned to the fundamentals, but the risk of further short - selling is high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of iron alloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is expected based on orders, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to the rise of iron alloy prices, iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) can be bought at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The reasons for the recent rise of iron alloys are strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. There is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, and there is downward pressure due to the decline of coking coal futures. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively small, with low operating rates, different destocking situations for silicon iron and silicon manganese. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and risk control. After the policy is less than expected, the price has returned to fundamentals, but short - selling risks are high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Beneficial Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. The demand of five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. This week, the enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The demand of five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [5][8]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The coking coal price has dropped significantly [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - metal sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese [8]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [10]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including different regions and contract months [11][24][35].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - In the short term, there are still fluctuations in the price spreads among COMEX copper, LME copper, and SHFE copper, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine the reasonable range of the spreads. The extremely high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be significantly affected. The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend still depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes. Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [3] Group 3: Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,040 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Group 4: Copper Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2509C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, over - increase in the anti - involution event, and extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX due to US copper tariff policy adjustments [5][7] Group 6: Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 78,040 yuan/ton with no daily change; SHFE copper continuous - one is 78,040 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan (-1.13%); SHFE copper continuous - three is 78,010 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME 3M copper is 9,803 US dollars/ton, up 40.5 US dollars (0.41%); the SHFE - LME ratio is 8.15, up 0.01 (0.12%) [6] Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 78,565 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan (-0.91%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,985 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan (-0.15%); Guangdong Southern Reserve is 78,890 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 79,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.19%) [8] Group 7: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt Data - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipt is 18,083 tons, up 251 tons (1.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipt is 3,313 tons, down 1,354 tons (-29.01%) [14] Inventory Data - The total LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons (0.18%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 253,431 tons, up 9,650 tons (3.96%) [16][18] Group 8: Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 161.95 yuan/ton, up 151.48 yuan (-48.33%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42.75 US dollars/ton with no daily change [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is potentially bullish, but short - term fluctuations in London gold have intensified. London gold has fallen below the 3300 mark, with key support at 3250 and resistance levels at 3300, 3350, 3370, and 3400. London silver has broken below the 37 area support, showing short - term weakness, and the support has shifted down to 36. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market continued its weakness. After the better - than - expected US small non - farm payrolls and Q2 GDP on Wednesday and Powell's hawkish speech, the better - than - expected US PCE and lower - than - expected weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday further cooled the September interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rose above 100, which was negative for precious metals. Additionally, the US "exemption" of refined copper tariffs caused a sharp drop in US copper prices, dragging down silver prices. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3342.3 per ounce, down 0.31%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.79 per ounce, down 2.51%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 770.28 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9008 yuan per kilogram, down 2.21% [2]. - Trump said that the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days and threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods imported into the US starting from August 1st. The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a four - month high [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations have cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 61.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 38.2%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 13.6%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 32.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 7.9% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.86 tons to 954.51 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 87.58 tons to 15062.32 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.06 tons to 1208 tons, and the SGX silver inventory in the week ending July 25th increased by 56.4 tons to 1368.4 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week is data - intensive. On Friday, focus on the US July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30 and the ISM manufacturing PMI at 22:00 [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - Data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold main - continuous, SGX gold TD, CME gold main, SHFE silver main - continuous, SGX silver TD, CME silver main, SHFE - TD gold, SHFE - TD silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [4][5]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Data presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold inventory, CME gold inventory, SHFE gold position, SPDR gold position, SHFE silver inventory, CME silver inventory, SGX silver inventory, SHFE silver position, and SLV silver position [15]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [19].

Kitco Metals网站：短期看涨情绪可能掩盖了黄金市场潜在的结构性疲软 五矿期货：美国经济与通胀数据具备韧性贵金属价格持续承压 新湖期货：黄金总体呈现震荡局势继续等待美联储降息指引 光大期货：美元显现触底回升态势黄金表现继续弱化 Zaner Metals：避险情绪升温给金价带来支撑 【机构观点分析】 五矿期货表示，鲍威尔在议息会议中表态强硬，几乎拒绝透露任何关于九月议息会议货币政策路径的信 息，他认为后续的货币政策路径取决于经济数据，关键在于"把握时机"。议息会议后市场降低了对于联 储宽松政策的预期，CME利率观测器显示市场预计年内联储仅将在10月议息会议中进行25个基点的降 息操作，低于议息会议前定价的两次。联储货币政策表态转鹰派，贵金属价格短期将面临较强回调压 力，但基于后续就业数据以及关键票委表态所具备的不确定性，金银策略上建议暂时观望。 新湖期货表示，根据世界黄金协会最新公布的数据显示，全球央行二季度购金速度有所放缓，但购金量 仍高于过往平均，另外，二季度我国黄金ETF创下有史以来最强劲的季度表现，推动全球黄金投资需求 上行。近期，受累于美联储降息预期后移叠加关税给市场带来的不确定性整体回落，黄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The current weak demand is due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation. After August, the balance will be relatively tight. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. Maintain a short - term cautious but long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper, and consider building virtual inventory in the third quarter [1]. - **Aluminum**: Supply has a slight increase, and the demand in August is in the seasonal off - season. There is a small inventory build - up in July and is expected to continue in August. Pay attention to demand and consider inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [2]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is also weak. Suggest short - term observation, holding domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and paying attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - **Nickel**: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories are stable. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply has partial passive production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have a slight reduction. Pay attention to policy trends [7]. - **Lead**: Lead prices had a slight correction this week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, demand has improved but still has inventory build - up. It is expected to oscillate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and domestic inventory is rising. Suggest short - term observation or short - selling at high prices [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon decreased in July. If the operating rate of Hesheng does not recover significantly, the market will oscillate; if the复产 of Hesheng and southwest regions accelerates, the market will be in surplus and prices will oscillate weakly [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong in both supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disruptions. In the long - term, if the supply disruptions are resolved, the over - capacity pattern remains [17]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 0, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1350 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 2400 tons [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The weak demand is due to the off - season and trans - shipment factors. The annual apparent demand is expected to be 4.8% - 5.5%. The price below 78,000 is the psychological price for industrial restocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increased slightly, demand in August is in the off - season, and inventory is expected to continue to build up slightly [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 380 yuan/ton, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 4250 tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak. Suggest short - term observation and relevant arbitrage strategies [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1900 yuan/ton, and the LME inventory increased by 600 tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories are stable [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, etc. remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has partial passive production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have a slight reduction [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the spot premium of lead changed by 0, and the LME inventory increased by 125 tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, demand has improved but still has inventory build - up. It is expected to oscillate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the LME inventory of tin remained unchanged at 1945 tons [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and domestic inventory is rising. Suggest short - term observation or short - selling at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 30, the 421 Yunnan basis and other data changed, and the total production decreased in July [15]. - **Market Analysis**: If the operating rate of Hesheng does not recover significantly, the market will oscillate; if the复产 of Hesheng and southwest regions accelerates, the market will be in surplus and prices will oscillate weakly [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 950 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 7586 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The current fundamentals are strong in both supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disruptions. In the long - term, if the supply disruptions are resolved, the over - capacity pattern remains [17].

Core Viewpoint - Recent commodity futures have experienced significant price volatility, raising concerns about the healthy development of the futures market amid a stark contrast between strong macro expectations and weak industrial fundamentals [1] Investor Behavior - Investors need to respect the market and adhere to discipline, making rational decisions amidst significant market fluctuations. Many investors struggle to detach from their inherent thinking, leading to losses when attempting to short or chase prices [2][3] - Individual investors should recognize the high risks associated with futures trading, avoid the illusion of quick wealth, and maintain strict control over their risk exposure [3] Institutional Investor Role - Institutional investors should act as stabilizers in the market, conducting in-depth research on macro policies and industrial fundamentals to form independent investment logic, rather than merely following policy signals [2] Regulatory and Service Institutions - Futures exchanges must act decisively to cool down irrational market behaviors by implementing risk control measures such as adjusting trading limits and margin requirements [4] - Futures companies play a crucial role in risk management and should proactively educate clients about risks, monitor trading behaviors, and provide high-quality research to guide rational investment [5] Collaborative Governance - The stable and healthy development of the futures market is essential for protecting investors, especially those with lower risk tolerance. A collaborative effort among regulatory bodies, market participants, and investors is necessary to mitigate risks associated with the disparity between strong expectations and weak realities [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the stock index dropped with heavy trading volume, and the decline of the large - cap stock index was greater. The main reasons for the market decline were the hawkish remarks of Powell at the Fed's July meeting, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, increasing external pressure, and the release of the July manufacturing PMI by the National Bureau of Statistics, which was lower than the previous month and lower than expected. Under the double negative impacts at home and abroad, the stock index declined overall. From the perspective of futures indicators, the volume - weighted average basis of all contracts except IH decreased slightly. The overall sentiment turned pessimistic, and the correction was expected to continue. If the index continued to fall, it was recommended that long - position holders take profit and exit [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index declined collectively on this day. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.82%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 91.756 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM dropped with heavy trading volume, while the other varieties dropped with shrinking volume [4]. Important Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected. He also mentioned that the current interest rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation, and it was still too early to judge the impact of tariffs on inflation. - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - If the decline continued, long - position holders could take profit and exit [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.77 | -1.44 | -1.38 | -0.88 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 15.6196 | 7.5925 | 11.9559 | 26.7774 | | Trading volume month - on - month (10,000 lots) | 1.8165 | 0.4976 | 1.4305 | 3.6495 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0987 | 9.9966 | 22.7163 | 34.8264 | | Open interest month - on - month (10,000 lots) | -0.3716 | -0.3315 | -0.276 | 0.1767 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.18 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.73 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.25 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 19360.35 | | Trading volume month - on - month (100 million yuan) | 917.56 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the rising price center, some high-cost old cotton resources are flowing into the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the far - month. So, the upside of cotton prices is limited. However, before the new cotton is launched, the tight domestic cotton inventory will strongly support cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0713 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lower costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,700 to prevent the rise of procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have dropped significantly, reserve cotton has not been sold, and the de - stocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Also, the post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5] Bearish Factors - Mainland spinning mills have further reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang spinning mills' operation is stable, supporting rigid cotton consumption. Although the downstream finished product inventory has slightly decreased, there is still some pressure. Currently, Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth, so there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year output [8] Futures Price and Spread Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,840, down 65 (-0.47%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, down 75 (-0.54%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,650, down 105 (-0.76%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,710, up 10 (0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 20,100 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,770, down 100 (-0.5%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,825, up 170; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 95, up 55; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 150, down 50; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,964, up 122; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 550, down 21 [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,580, down 29 (-0.19%); CCI 2227B was priced at 13,670, down 29 (-0.21%); CCI 2129B was priced at 15,873, down 39 (-0.25%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,930, up 18 (0.13%); FCI Index M was priced at 13,738, up 17 (0.12%); FCI Index L was priced at 13,454, up 17 (0.13%) [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The BPI and BSI freight rate indices continued to decline, and the BHSI also joined the decline. Although the BCI freight rate index rose, its increase narrowed, leading to a narrowing increase in the BDI composite freight rate index. The increase in the shipment of agricultural products and new shipments of resources such as iron ore and bauxite boosted the demand for capesize vessels, supporting the freight rates of capesize vessels. However, the decrease in the shipment of industrial products dragged down the demand for panamax and handy vessels, causing their prices to weaken [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - On July 29, compared with the previous week, the increases in the BDI composite freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index narrowed. The BPI, BSI, and BHSI indices adjusted, with the decline of the BPI index widening. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2,109 points, a week - on - week increase of 3.64%; the BCI index closed at 3,476 points, a week - on - week increase of 13.56%; the BPI index closed at 1,741 points, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8%; the BSI index closed at 1,281 points, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61%; and the BHSI index closed at 677 points, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% [4]. 2.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - On July 29, the FDI index declined across the board. In the routes of the super - handy vessel rent index, the rent of the Indonesia - to - China voyage charter route increased by 0.11% month - on - month. The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,321.5 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%; the FDI rent index closed at 1,610.35 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The rent indices of different ship types also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. 3.1 Daily Shipping Country Shipping and Vessel Usage Quantity - On July 31, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 43 vessels for shipping, Russia used 14 vessels, Argentina used 30 vessels, and Australia used 5 vessels. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 51 vessels, Guinea used 27 vessels, Indonesia used 24 vessels, Russia used 27 vessels, South Africa used 18 vessels, Brazil used 11 vessels, and the United States used 13 vessels [16]. 3.2 Daily Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 30 vessels were used for corn, 22 for wheat, 20 for soybeans, 11 for soybean meal, and 12 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 93 vessels were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. By ship type, agricultural product shipments required the most post - panamax vessels (44), followed by super - handy vessels (22) and handy vessels (23). Industrial product shipments required the most capesize vessels (76), followed by post - panamax vessels (60) and super - handy vessels (54) [17]. 4. Main Port Ship Quantity Tracking - The weekly data showed that the number of ships in Chinese, Indonesian, and South African ports continued to increase month - on - month. From July 1 to July 30, the number of dry - bulk ships in Chinese ports increased by 13; the number of ships in Australian ports decreased by 11; the number of ships in Indonesian ports increased by 4; and the number of ships in Brazilian and South African ports remained unchanged [17][18]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On July 29, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40/ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 3,934.19 yuan/ton. On July 28, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,118/day, and the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $114.6/thousand tons. On July 28, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13,528/day, and on July 29, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 532.98 yuan/ton. On July 28, the handy vessel freight rate index was quoted at 680.8 points, and on August 1, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $114/cubic meter [23].

权教据日报 CI + 高中心 =: F0251925 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 IIG 国兴期 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0 2 上证50波动率分析 上证50历史波动率 力史波动率链 0.5 -最大值 量小值 -- 10%分位值 0.45 30%分位值 -- 60%分位值 · 当前值 0.4 90%分位值 0.35 0.3 80% 0.25 70% 0.2 eole 40% 0.1 30% 0.05 20% 0 10% 2025-03-17 2025-04-17 2025-05-17 2025-06-17 2025-07-17 0% 日 20日 40日 eo日 120日 -HV5 - HV20 = H/Veo 上证50下月平值隐波 波动车微笑曲线 0.4 - 2509 2508 0.27 - 0.35 0.24 0.3 0.21 0.25 0.18 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.1 0.09 2300 2450 2550 2375 沪深300波动率分析 沪深300历史波动率 历史波动率链 0.6 - 最小值 -最大值 -- 10%分位值 30%分位值 == 60%分位值 ...