Group 1 - The core point of the news is the successful launch of the "Zhaoyin Jinkui" satellite, marking a significant milestone in the collaboration of China Merchants Bank in the low Earth orbit satellite communication sector, establishing a "broadband + narrowband" communication matrix [1][4] - The "Zhaoyin Jinkui" satellite is part of the Tianqi constellation, which is China's first global network of low Earth orbit IoT satellites, developed and operated by the national-level specialized enterprise Beijing Guodian Gaoke Technology Co., Ltd [1][4] - The launch of the satellite enhances the constellation's density, reduces revisit intervals, and improves global communication capabilities, allowing for higher data transmission volumes and supporting more concurrent terminal devices [1][4] Group 2 - China Merchants Bank has integrated its strategy with national development goals, focusing on technological finance and providing long-term capital support and specialized financial services to emerging industries like commercial aerospace [2][5][6] - The bank's subsidiary, Zhaoyin Jinzu, has innovatively implemented China's first SPV satellite leasing business, providing equipment leasing services to meet the funding needs of the Tianqi constellation [2][6] - Future collaborations will explore diverse leasing models, including cross-border asset leasing and operational leasing, while promoting innovations in the lifecycle management of IoT satellite technology [2][6] Group 3 - China Merchants Bank is leveraging remote sensing, communication, and IoT satellite technologies to enhance its digital capabilities, integrating remote sensing technology into its financial risk control system [3][7] - The bank has developed a post-loan risk management system for residential mortgages, achieving over 95% accuracy in monitoring construction progress through high-resolution satellite imagery [3][7] - The bank has also initiated the application of low Earth orbit satellite communication technology in its financial disaster recovery systems, enhancing business continuity in extreme situations [3][7]

(经济观察)海南自贸港赋能中企出海 构建全球供应链 中新社海口1月16日电 (记者 王子谦)在海南自贸港即将迎来封关满月之际，中国银河证券、中国银行、 毕马威中国、英国诺顿罗氏律师事务所等十余家中外机构参与的"海南自贸港中介机构高质量服务企业 出海平台"15日在海口成立，为企业提供全方位、一站式出海服务。 作为该平台发起方的中国银河证券股份有限公司董事长王晟表示，该平台将系统整合专业服务机构、海 外园区等资源，依托海南自贸港政策，构建高效便利的跨境投资服务体系，吸引全球跨国业务板块与功 能性总部落户海南，并将海南打造为中国企业出海的首选门户与全球供应链布局的核心枢纽。 当前，中企正加速出海，加快构建全球供应链。官方数据显示，2025年中国外贸实现了6.1%的较快增 长；2025年前11个月，中国全行业对外直接投资规模同比增长7.5%。 在全球供应链深刻转型的背景下，海南自贸港封关后通过构建"一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由"的海关 监管特殊区域，对中企出海与全球供应链建设发挥独特作用。 正在此间举办的海南自由贸易港赋能企业全球供应链建设大会上，中共海南省委副秘书长、省委财办 (省委农办)主任李逊敏指出，海南自贸港 ...

粤港澳大湾区，中国开放程度最高、经济活力最强劲的区域之一。作为唯一一家在大湾区"9+2"城市网 点全覆盖的全国性股份制商业银行，广发银行深耕于此，使命在肩。特设"活力大湾区"专栏，记录广发 银行以金融活水浇灌湾区发展，助力建设"一点两地"与宜居宜业宜游的优质生活圈的精彩故事。在这 里，看见金融与大湾区发展的双向奔赴。 傍晚的深圳，华灯初上。在香港青年王女士新安置的家中，一尾清蒸鲈鱼刚端上桌，满屋香气四溢。她 从厨房望向窗外，深圳湾的流光溢彩与对岸香港的轮廓交相辉映。这份"双城生活"的惬意，正是大湾区 融合发展的生动写照。随着"港车北上""澳车北上"政策落地，加上跨境结算便利化措施的推行，越来越 多港澳青年选择到湾区内地城市安家。 王女士从事汽车销售，多年前从香港来到深圳。得益于《广东省促进港澳青年在粤港澳大湾区内地九市 就业创业条例》的保障，她在深圳的职业发展顺利，也让她下定决心在此扎根。然而，作为香港居民， 跨境购房的资金结汇、审批流程曾让她望而却步。过去，境外人士购房需先办理备案证明才能结汇，而 开发商需先收首付才办备案，常常陷入流程僵局。 好在政策持续发力破解痛点，广东率先推出港澳居民购房结算便利化指引 ...

环球市场动态 A 股周四震荡，指数走势分歧；港 股高开低走，软件及互联网板块下 跌拖累大市；欧洲股市小幅回落， 市场在降息受益板块和防御板块间 来回切换；台积电超预期资本支出 点燃市场，美股科技股提振大市上 行。 $${\mathcal{H}}\ \Im\Gamma\ /\ \overline{{{\mathbb{E}_{0}}}}\ \ \overline{{{\mathbb{H}_{0}}}}$$ 伊朗风险减弱，周四国际油价跌超 4%；美国申领失业救济人数低于预 期，美元指数高走；黄金及白银价 格略为回落，铜价走低。 固 定 收 益 受强劲经济指标提振，美国国债收 益率上升。快手的美元和人民币的 新发债均获得超额认购，中国下调 商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例至 30%。特朗普买入美企债券。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 1 月 16 日 ▪ 中国人民银行下调各类再贷款工具利率 25 基点，但该举措并非传统意义上的逆回购利率或 LPR 降息，而是通 过结构性工具定向发力。我们认为，此举有利于提升银行投放积极性、促进 ...

据国家金融监督管理总局官网，1月15日该局召开2026年监管工作会议，深入贯彻党中央、国务院决策 部署，系统总结2025年工作，统筹安排2026年重点任务。金融监管总局党委书记、局长李云泽出席会议 并讲话。 在切实提高行业高质量发展能力方面，会议表示，做好统筹规划，稳妥推进中小金融机构减量提质，合 理优化机构布局。深入整治无序竞争，持续规范行业秩序。督促银行保险机构专注主业、错位发展。推 进金融高水平对外开放。 在全面加强和完善金融监管方面，会议提到，聚焦实质风险、解决实际问题，不断强化"五大监管"，提 高依法监管能力，做实分类分级监管。加快推进"金监工程"设计和建设。扎实履行统筹金融消费者保护 职责。有效发挥"四级垂管"整体效能。积极参与国际金融治理改革。 会议对不断提升金融服务经济社会质效这项任务着墨最多。包括做好金融"五篇大文章"，持续加大对重 大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度；强化促消费、扩投资的金融供给；优化科技金融服务，积极 培育耐心资本；加强民生领域金融支持；着力促进稳企业稳就业。与2025年"全力推动经济运行向上向 好"相比，2026年表述更突出结构性支持和长期资本引导。 2026年是"十 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: WTI crude oil futures fell 4.38% to $59.17 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures dropped 4.06% to $63.82 per barrel [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures declined 0.33% to $4620.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.90% to $92.21 per ounce [5]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals declined, with LME zinc up 1.14% at $3313.5 per ton, LME lead up 0.87% at $2096.5 per ton, LME copper down 0.30% at $13148.5 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.46% at $3171.5 per ton, LME nickel down 0.56% at $18590.0 per ton, and LME tin down 1.29% at $52775.0 per ton [5]. 2. Important News **Macro News** - US initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November, below all expectations [8]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the central bank should focus on reducing inflation, maintaining the expectation of a possible rate cut later this year [8]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in relending and rediscount rates starting January 19, 2026 [8]. **Energy Futures** - As of January 15, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight cases, down 4.51% week - on - week, falling for three consecutive weeks [10]. - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, up 0.66% from Monday [12]. - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all reached multi - week highs as of January 14 [12]. - Qatar cut the March futures price of Al - Shaheen crude oil to a discount of 33 cents per barrel to Dubai quotes [13]. - US natural gas inventories decreased by 71 billion cubic feet to 3.185 trillion cubic feet in the week ended January 9, up 1.0% year - on - year [13]. **Metal Futures** - In 2025, global gold ETF inflows reached $89 billion, and the total AUM grew to $559 billion, with total holdings hitting a record high of 4025 tons [15]. - Vale Indonesia received approval for its 2026 mining quota and resumed normal operations [15]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit, margin ratio, and daily trading volume limit for tin futures contracts starting January 15 [15]. - Goldman Sachs said if Indonesia tightens its 2026 nickel mining quota to 260 million tons, the average nickel price could be close to $18,000 per ton [17]. **Black Futures** - In early January, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises increased 21.6% week - on - week, and the estimated national daily output of crude steel rose 22.8% [19]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 65 yuan/ton this week [19]. - As of January 15, the output and factory inventory of rebar decreased, while social inventory increased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand increased [19]. - In early January, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased 6.4% from the previous ten - day period [20]. - CICC believes that the steel industry will still face demand reduction and structural adjustment in 2026, with limited improvement in supply - demand and profitability [20]. **Agricultural Futures** - CONAB forecasts Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to reach 176.1244 million tons, up 2.7% year - on - year [23]. - US 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 2.062 million tons last week, up from 878,000 tons the previous week [24]. - The IGC expects global 2025/26 soybean production to increase by 1 million tons to 427 million tons, with consumption rising by 1 million tons to 432 million tons [24]. - Private exporters reported soybean and corn sales for the 2025/2026 season [24]. - The Trump administration is advancing biofuel policies and may finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas in early March [24]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 increased by 17.53% - 18.64% compared to the same period last month [25]. - US December 2025 soybean crush was 224.991 million bushels, and soybean oil inventory was 1.642 billion pounds [25]. 3. Financial Markets **Financial Sector** - A - shares showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up [28]. - Hong Kong stocks declined, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.28% [28]. - Some brokers reported tight margin trading quotas, and there were large differences in margin trading interest rates among brokers [28]. - On January 15, 21 ETFs had trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan [29]. - The Huaxia Gold ETF's circulation scale reached 100.762 billion yuan on January 14, becoming the first 100 - billion - level gold ETF in China [29]. - Three companies passed the listing review of the Beijing Stock Exchange in the first half - month of 2026 [29]. **Industrial Sector** - China will expand service - sector opening - up in 2026, including value - added telecommunications, biotechnology, and foreign - owned hospitals [31]. - State Grid will invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, up 40% from the previous period [32]. - In 2025, over 5500 idle land parcels were planned to be acquired using special bonds, with a total value exceeding 750 billion yuan [32]. - The 2026 Commercial Space Industry Development Conference will be held in Shenzhen on March 17 - 18 [32]. - Some small and medium - sized banks are offering deposit gifts and slightly raising deposit rates [32]. - Baoneng Group's Chairman Yao Zhenhua accused the Changshu court of illegal actions in a 270 - million - yuan execution case, but the local government denied the accusation [32]. **Overseas Sector** - US President Trump wants a "quick and decisive" military strike against Iran, and the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is being deployed to the Middle East [34]. - Trump has no plan to fire Fed Chair Powell and is considering Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as potential successors [34]. - US initial jobless claims dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November [35]. - Some Fed officials are inclined to maintain interest rates and may consider a mild rate cut later this year [35]. - Japan's opposition parties are considering forming a new party to compete in the upcoming elections [35]. - The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% [35]. - The Bank of Japan may re - evaluate its interest - rate hike timing due to exchange - rate factors [36]. - Chinese citizens can enter the Philippines visa - free for up to 14 days starting January 16 [38]. **International Stock Markets** - US stocks rose slightly, with the Dow up 0.6%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq up 0.25% [39]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.26%, the French CAC40 down 0.21%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.54% [39]. - Asian stocks were mixed, with the South Korean KOSPI up 1.58% and the Japanese Nikkei 225 down 0.42% [39]. - Goldman Sachs' Q4 2025 revenue decreased 3% to $13.5 billion, but its stock - trading revenue set a record [40]. - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2025 revenue was $17.89 billion, up 10.3% year - on - year [41]. - US six major banks paid over $140 billion in dividends and repurchased stocks in 2025, and the trend is expected to continue [41]. **Commodity Markets** - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for tin futures [43]. - There was a reported "silver merchant default case" in Shenzhen's Shuibei market, with an alleged value of 200 million yuan [43]. - Oil prices fell due to expected increased Venezuelan production, easing Middle - East tensions, and rising US crude inventories [43]. - Precious metals prices were affected by Fed officials' hawkish signals and strong US economic data [44]. - Trump's administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals and will seek bilateral negotiations [45]. - The EU will lower the price cap on Russian oil from $47.6 to $44.1 per barrel starting February 1 [47]. **Bond Markets** - China extended tax - exemption policies for foreign institutions investing in domestic bonds until December 31, 2027 [48]. - China's inter - bank bond market rebounded, and Vanke's bonds rose significantly [48]. - As of December 2025, foreign institutions held 3.46 trillion yuan of Chinese inter - bank bonds, accounting for about 2% of the total [49]. - Holders of Vanke's mid - term notes proposed four repayment plans [49]. - US Treasury yields rose across the board [49]. - In November 2025, overseas investors net - bought $85.6 billion of US Treasuries, with China reducing its holdings and Japan increasing [51]. - Goldman Sachs will issue $16 billion of investment - grade bonds [52]. - In 2025, overseas investors net - bought 147.1 trillion won ($100.1 billion) of South Korean bonds, up 96.4% from 2024 [52]. **Foreign Exchange Markets** - China's central bank official said there is no need for China to devalue the yuan for trade advantages, and the yuan is expected to fluctuate [53]. - China's foreign exchange market trading volume reached $42.6 trillion in 2025, and the corporate hedging ratio rose to 30% [53]. - The on - shore yuan rose against the US dollar on Thursday [53]. - The US dollar index rose 0.28% in New York trading, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [53]. - South Korea established a task force to crack down on illegal foreign - exchange trading [55].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures**: China's central bank has introduced eight structural optimization policies, signaling a shift from chasing liquidity to focusing on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings. The RMB exchange rate maintains two - way flexibility, and the central bank has room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. China's exports are expected to remain resilient, and the monetary policy will stay moderately loose. For RMB exchange rates, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has increased significantly, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar before the Spring Festival [1][3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous regulatory actions mainly caused short - term fluctuations without changing the medium - to - long - term trends. After the release of multiple favorable policies by the central bank, the stock index is more likely to strengthen again [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's use of structural tools to support the real economy has a certain boosting effect on the bond market, but the scope of the market may be limited. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and not chase short - term highs [6]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market logic has shifted from trading geopolitical risk premiums to trading pre - Spring Festival spot price cuts. The futures are expected to be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [6][8][9]. - **Commodities** - **New Energy**: For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, pay attention to polysilicon production resumption and shutdown dynamics in the short term, and consider long positions on dips for industrial silicon in the medium - to - long term [12][15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, do not build new positions above 100,000 yuan; for aluminum, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; for alumina, it is expected to be oscillating and weakening; for zinc, it is expected to be oscillating strongly; for nickel and stainless steel, they are expected to be oscillating and adjusting; for tin, it is recommended to go long on dips; for lead, it is expected to be oscillating strongly [17][19][22]. - **Oils and Fats and Feeds**: For oilseeds, the external soybean market will be weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal will be strong in the near term and weak in the far term. For oils, the short - term market will continue to rebound in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to reduce positions in the M3 - 5 long spread and short positions in rapeseed meal [24][25][27]. - **Energy and Oil and Gas**: For fuel oil, beware of geopolitical fluctuations and consider the 5 - 9 long spread after a correction. For asphalt, pay attention to long spread opportunities. The short - term price is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [29][30][33]. - **Precious Metals**: Platinum and palladium are expected to continue their bull market in the medium - to - long term. Gold and silver are in an upward - biased pattern, and it is recommended to add long positions on dips while controlling positions [35][36][38]. - **Chemicals**: For pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to wait and consider long positions on dips. For LPG, follow geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance. For PTA - PX, do not chase long positions at high valuations. For MEG - bottle chips, it is in a weak pattern, and it is recommended to wait for macro - policy changes. For methanol, do not short. For PE, it is expected to decline. For pure benzene - styrene, styrene is running strongly. For rubber, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [39][42][55]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and glass is facing high inventory pressure. Caustic soda is expected to be weakly oscillating [57][58][59]. - **Propylene**: It fluctuates with costs, and pay attention to geopolitical impacts on costs and PDH device changes [59][60]. - **Black Metals**: For steel products, the downside is limited, but the upside lacks drivers, and the price will oscillate. For iron ore, the price is expected to decline in the short term. For coking coal and coke, the supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the inventory may improve [61][62][64]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities**: For live pigs, the market is oscillating, and it is recommended to sell call options on the 03 contract around 13,000. For cotton, there is a short - term callback risk, but the decline may be limited. For sugar, the short - term price is oscillating strongly with increasing pressure. For rubber, it oscillates and it is recommended to wait and see. For apples, it may continue to strengthen after a short - term adjustment. For red dates, the price will oscillate at a low level in the short term and be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. For logs, the price will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to consider short positions around 800 [65][67][75]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Categories Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank has introduced eight measures, including a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools and a reduction of the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30%. The US initial jobless claims were lower than expected, and the Fed's stance on interest rates is divided. The US is facing multiple issues such as stagflation, institutional disputes, and geopolitical conflicts. China's exports in 2025 maintained medium - to - high - speed growth, and the full - year social financing increment exceeded 35 trillion yuan [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has increased significantly. The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar before the Spring Festival, and its appreciation is affected by the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [1][3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous regulatory actions mainly caused short - term fluctuations. After the release of multiple favorable policies by the central bank, the stock index is more likely to strengthen again. The impact of external factors on A - shares is limited [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's use of structural tools to support the real economy has a certain boosting effect on the bond market, but the scope of the market may be limited. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and not chase short - term highs [6]. Container Shipping to Europe - **Market Logic**: The market logic has shifted from trading geopolitical risk premiums to trading pre - Spring Festival spot price cuts. The futures are expected to be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [6][8][9]. - **Risk Factors**: Pay attention to the rhythm and amplitude of pre - Spring Festival price cuts by shipping companies, geopolitical fluctuations, and the guidance of shipping companies' February opening prices and actual shipment volume data in late January [14]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is in a "not - so - off - season" state. The futures volatility is at a historical high. It is recommended to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [12]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: In the short term, pay attention to polysilicon production resumption and shutdown dynamics. In the medium - to - long term, consider long positions on dips for industrial silicon [13][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The decline in copper prices is limited due to the small amount of available goods. Do not build new positions above 100,000 yuan. Enterprises in need of spot procurement can consider constructing option strategies [16][17]. - **Aluminum and Its Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; alumina is expected to be oscillating and weakening; casting aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Pay attention to the impact of policies such as tariffs and export tax rebates [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. Although the fundamentals have the potential to go long, there is significant hedging pressure above [19]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be oscillating and adjusting. The quota issuance rhythm is the core factor, and the new energy demand may be favorable [20][21]. - **Tin**: It may still have upward momentum after a short - term callback. It is recommended to go long on dips [22]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. The price is expected to be range - bound in 2026 [23]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market will be weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal will be strong in the near term and weak in the far term. Pay attention to the progress of Chinese soybean purchases and the supply situation of Brazilian soybeans [24][25]. - **Oils**: The short - term market will continue to rebound in a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to origin information and international relations. It is recommended to reduce positions in the M3 - 5 long spread and short positions in rapeseed meal [25][26][27]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is affected by sanctions, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors at the bottom. Consider the 5 - 9 long spread after a correction [29][30]. - **Asphalt**: The cost is affected by geopolitical factors, and the spot price has a certain bottom support. Pay attention to long spread opportunities. The short - term price is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [31][33][34]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US tariff policy has changed, and geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The medium - to - long - term bull market foundation remains. Pay attention to international market prices [35][36]. - **Gold and Silver**: The price fluctuates greatly. The medium - to - long - term trend is upward. It is recommended to add long positions on dips while controlling positions [36][37][38]. Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: The pulp market is bearish, but there is a possibility of a rebound at a low level. The offset paper market is neutral - bearish. It is recommended to wait and consider long positions on dips [39][40][41]. - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors and domestic device maintenance. Pay attention to supply and demand changes [42]. - **PTA - PX**: PTA's over - supply situation has been alleviated, but the upside of processing fees is limited. PX is in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026. Do not chase long positions at high valuations [43][44][45]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand - side negative feedback is intensifying, and the market is in a weak pattern. Wait for macro - policy changes [45][46]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical logic continues. Although the MTO side's shutdown weakens the fundamentals of the 05 contract, do not short [47]. - **PE**: The market is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is expected to decline [48][49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation and follows cost fluctuations. Styrene is running strongly due to export news and downstream buying [50]. - **Rubber**: The market is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [50][54][55]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The new production capacity is being released, and the market is in an over - supply situation. The price is restricted by high inventory [57]. - **Glass**: There are still some production line cold - repairs to be realized before the Spring Festival. The market is facing high inventory pressure [58]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a weak state, and the demand side is expected to weaken further. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [59]. Propylene - It fluctuates with costs. Pay attention to geopolitical impacts on costs and PDH device changes. The supply - demand situation is still relatively loose, but the pressure has improved [59][60]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The downside is limited, but the upside lacks drivers. The price will oscillate. The short - term price range of the rebar 2605 contract is expected to be between 3050 - 3200 yuan, and that of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract is expected to be between 3200 - 3350 yuan [61]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are weakening. The price is expected to decline in the short term, but the downside is limited [61][62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the inventory may improve. Pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The market is oscillating. It is recommended to sell call options on the 03 contract around 13,000 [65][66]. - **Cotton**: There is a short - term callback risk, but the decline may be limited. Pay attention to downstream imports and orders [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The short - term price is oscillating strongly with increasing pressure. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [67][69]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates and it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [70][74][75]. - **Apples**: It may continue to strengthen after a short - term adjustment. Pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking situation [75][76]. - **Red Dates**: The price will oscillate at a low level in the short term and be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to downstream procurement [77][78]. - **Logs**: The price will oscillate strongly. The upside is limited by the lowest warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong. Consider short positions around 800 and option double - selling strategies [78][79][80].

2026 年 1 月 16 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】结构性降息影响几何？——2025 年 12 月金融数据&国新办会议点评 12 月金融数据平稳收官：企业信贷增长加快是一大亮点，但考虑春节错位因素，持 续性值得关注；人民币升值推动居民结汇，居民存款大幅增长；股市持续活跃仍将提 振 M2 增速。货币政策结构性降息以及扩大并优化结构性工具的使用，更有利于提振 风险偏好，短期内股强债弱的格局将持续。风险提示:财政刺激政策落地不及预期； 流动性投放有缺口导致资金面出现波动。 【宏观】消费反弹，美国一季度经济继续偏强——2025 年 11 月美国零售数据点评 考虑到关税政策与政府停摆扰动影响收敛，叠加 11 月是传统消费旺季，美国消费数 据回升在"意料之中"，11 月零售环比增速录得+0.6%，高于预期。展望看，基数效 应下，如果 2026 年一季度政府可以顺利完成运转，则在政府预算集中支出和税收返 还的影响下，2026 年一季度美国各项经济数据或显著上行，短期内进一步降息必要 性不强，待新一届美联储主席上任后，降息节奏或有所加快。 行业研究 【电新】渠道与场景加持，光伏组件企业大举进入储 ...

近年来，全球可持续发展进程面临愈发复杂和多变的外部环境，政治、经济等领域的不确定性和挑战日 益显现。受此影响，2025年对于企业净零行动的生态圈来说，可谓是开局不利。 2024年12月至2025年初，包括高盛（Goldman Sachs）、富国银行（Wells Fargo）、花旗集团 （Citigroup）在内的6家美国大型银行相继退出由联合国支持的净零银行业联盟（NZBA）。受此影 响，后续又有其他地区的银行选择退出这一联盟，最终导致该联盟在2025年10月宣布停止运作并转型为 非会员制框架。这一事件被视为可持续发展领域遭遇挫折的标志性体现。 2025年，一些大型企业也出现了气候目标调整的动向。例如，英国大型连锁超市Morrisons在2025年将 其原定于2035年实现净零碳排放的目标推迟到2050年；挪威能源公司Equinor也削弱了其原有的气候雄 心，放弃了对2030年可再生能源和低碳技术投资占比超过50%的承诺，下调了中期减排目标......这些案 例均显示出，在全球地缘政治局势紧张、经济发展前景不确定性增加的环境下，企业净零承诺的坚定性 仍面临现实考验。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of village banks is accelerating in 2026, with state-owned banks actively converting village banks into branch institutions, as evidenced by the approval of the acquisition of Zhejiang Anji Jiaoyin Village Bank by Bank of Communications [1][2]. Group 1: Restructuring Activities - Bank of Communications has been approved to acquire Zhejiang Anji Jiaoyin Village Bank and convert it into three branches, marking the first case of a state-owned bank's "village-to-branch" initiative in 2026 [2]. - Since 2025, over 300 village banks have exited the market, with "village-to-branch" and "village-to-subsidiary" becoming the mainstream exit strategies [1][2]. - In 2025, Bank of Communications completed similar conversions for multiple village banks in Qingdao and Sichuan, demonstrating a consistent strategy in this area [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The "village-to-branch" strategy involves the full acquisition of village banks by their parent banks, integrating them into the main banking system to enhance operational efficiency and resource allocation [4]. - The trend of state-owned banks engaging in "village-to-branch" conversions is driven by the desire to strengthen their rural financial services while minimizing risks associated with weaker village banks [4]. - Other banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have also participated in the restructuring of village banks, indicating a broader industry movement [2][3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The acceleration of village bank exits is influenced by regulatory policies aimed at reforming small financial institutions, emphasizing a focus on supporting agriculture and small enterprises [7][8]. - In 2025, 310 village banks exited the market, accounting for over 70% of the total exits since 2010, highlighting the significant impact of regulatory guidance [7]. - The central government's economic work conference in late 2025 underscored the importance of "reducing quantity and improving quality" in small financial institutions, which will continue to shape the reform landscape in 2026 [8].