截至4月23日当周，全国猪粮比价为6.68，环比下跌0.60%；全国猪料比价为5.45，环比下跌2.50%。按 目前价格及成本推算，未来仔猪育肥模式的生猪养殖头均盈利为43.21元。生猪均价环比上涨。周内二 次育肥仍有补栏动作，加之养殖端仍存看涨压栏情绪，供应微减带动生猪周均价环比上涨。未来一周， 二次育肥仍存在滚动补栏的现象，加之月末养殖端出栏量缩减，供应量减少对猪价仍有一定支撑。预计 本周生猪周均价环比继续微涨，但养殖周期内仔猪补栏成本上升，养殖预期利润可能减少。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月28日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-04-25 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3295.06 | 9917.05 | 3786.99 | 11007.02 | 2675.23 | 1004.57 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.06 | 0.39 | 0.06 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 0.12 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4454.17 | 6681.49 | 2205.35 | 2466.36 | 2916.34 | 202.73 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ ( $\frac{\pi}{10}$) 宏观与策略 宏观周报:高技术制造业宏观周报-国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数走平 宏观周报:宏观经济宏观周报-高频指标环比改善，房地产景气上升 固定收益周报:超 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250428 25Q1 固收+基金转债持仓十大亮点 2025 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 透过 2025Q1 基金持仓数据，观察到如下 10 点特征： 特征 1：2025Q1，固收+基金规模整体为净申购，其中二级债基和可转债 基金的基金规模增幅相对更明显，受益于优异的净值表现，尤其是可转债 基金在 2025Q1 表现突出，整体跑赢其他固收+基金和中证转债指数，与等 权指数相当。 特征 2：观察大类资产配置情况，固收+基金多数降低了杠杆率以及含权资 产整体仓位，对其中转债、股票的配置变化不一。具体来看，一级债基和 二级债基相对稳健，降低了整体含权仓位的比例；转债基金降低了股票仓 位但提高转债仓位；而偏债混和灵活配置型基金则降低了转债仓位，增加 了股票仓位，弹性诉求或更强。按照基金波动性划分看，高波基金提高了 转债仓位，略微降低股票仓位；中低波基金的含权仓位整体下降。 特征 3：就转债资产仓位而言，公募基金整体基本维持稳定、略微下降 0.01pct，固收+基金整体下降 0.6pct，只有可转债基金 ...

■本报记者 田耿文 阿坝藏族羌族自治州（以下简称"阿坝州"）位于四川西北部、青藏高原东南边缘，地表整体轮廓为典型 高原风貌，是长江黄河上游重要生态屏障和重要水源涵养地。这里不仅有高耸的雪山、广袤无垠的草 原、清新宜人的空气，更有漫山遍野、成群结队的牦牛，共同构成了一幅生动而和谐的高原生态画卷。 在这里，旅游和牦牛养殖都是当地的支柱产业。其中，牦牛不仅是游牧文化的图腾，更是万千牧民家庭 的重要经济支柱。 牦牛保险破解养殖难题 近日，记者一行驱车从成都出发，穿过一条又一条隧道，经过四个多小时的跋涉，来到了阿坝州的州府 所在地马尔康市。考虑到高反的影响，记者一行在马尔康市暂作休整，第二天一早出发，前往素有"牧 韵草原牦牛家园"之美誉的红原县。 红原县拥有1164万亩天然草场，这里的高原环境为牦牛提供了广阔的觅食空间和独特的生长条件，使得 牦牛成为当地重要的畜牧业资源。红原县在气候上属于大陆性高原寒温带季风性气候，易发旱灾、霜 冻、低温及大雪天气。 "自然条件下，牦牛冬季要掉膘20%—30%，春季死亡率较高。长期以来，牦牛养殖业处于'夏壮、秋 肥、冬瘦、春死'的传统循环中。"西南民族大学畜牧兽医学院副院长、人保牦牛风 ...

Core Viewpoint - ST Tianbang has made significant operational improvements in its pig farming business, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, while also addressing debt restructuring and production capacity optimization [1][5]. Group 1: Cost and Production Metrics - In Q1 2025, the cost of weaned piglets was 308 CNY per head, and the total cost for fattening pigs was 13.62 CNY per kg, a decrease of 0.31 CNY per kg compared to Q4 2024 [2] - Key breeding indicators have improved, with the survival rate of fattening pigs increasing from 88.7% in 2023 to 92.72% in Q1 2025, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs rising from 110 kg in 2023 to 121 kg in Q1 2025 [2] Group 2: Operational Efficiency Improvements - The company reduced its workforce from over 7,000 employees at the beginning of 2024 to 5,000 by the end of Q1 2025, a reduction of approximately 30% [3] - The number of self-built and leased fattening farms in Shandong has decreased to 10, with the breeding sow inventory down to 55,800 heads [3] - The fattening partner model has matured, with partner farms accounting for about 15% of fattened pig output in Q1 2025, while family farms contributed approximately 70% [3] Group 3: Capacity and Debt Management - The utilization rates for breeding and fattening farms were 46% and 43%, respectively, in Q1 2025, with depreciation costs due to empty pens amounting to 0.49 CNY per kg [4] - The company aims to increase the breeding sow inventory by 50,000 heads within the year without additional capital investment, targeting a total of 400,000 heads by year-end [4] - As of Q1 2025, total liabilities were 9.868 billion CNY, down by 5.045 billion CNY from the end of 2023, with a debt ratio of 71.79%, a decrease of 14.94 percentage points [5][6] Group 4: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's main revenue was 2.443 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.17%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 127 million CNY, a decrease of 78.97% [9] - The company aims to reduce the total cost of fattening pigs to below 12.8 CNY per kg by the end of 2025 [6]

| 148 43.65 一季度累计生猪出栏 万头，屠宰生猪 万头。 | | --- | | 公司自2024年二季度以来已连续四个季度扣非归母净利 | | 润为正。这主要由于生猪价格回暖，以及公司在预重整阶段 | | 仍保持了稳定的出栏，并实现养殖成本的稳步下降。 | | 公司三大业务板块汉世伟、嗨客猪管家、拾分味道的负责 | | 人分别对近期业务经营进行了阐述和介绍，并明确发展方向。 | | 【投资者问答】 | | 提问 1. 请问公司 2025 年一季度仔猪和育肥猪的成本情况， | | 关键养殖指标是否有所改善？ | | 2025 308 元/头，育肥完 回复：公司 年一季度断奶仔猪成本为 | | 全成本 13.62 元/公斤，相较 2024 年第四季度 13.93 元/公斤下 | | 降 0.31 元/公斤。2024 年至今，公司养殖关键指标持续优化。 | | 育肥成活率从 2023 年 88.7%提升至 2024 年 91.3%，2025 年 | | 92.72%；出栏肥猪均重从 2023 110 一季度为 年 公斤提升至 | | 2024 年 118 公斤，2025 年一季度为 121 公斤。 | | ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - Inner Mongolia is focusing on enhancing the supply capacity of important agricultural products, particularly in livestock production, with a target of maintaining the highest output of beef and mutton in China by 2024 [2][3] - The region's livestock production has shown positive growth, with a total of 46 million tons of meat produced in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with beef and mutton production rising by 9.5% and 9.6% respectively [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The shift from traditional to scientific breeding practices is evident, with farmers adopting advanced techniques and improved livestock breeds, such as the Dumeng sheep, to enhance growth rates and lambing success [2][5] - Inner Mongolia is implementing modern facility farming models, including the use of smart greenhouses and automated feeding systems, to improve the efficiency and sustainability of livestock farming [6] Group 3: Support and Training - Professional service teams are being established to provide hands-on training and support to farmers, improving their understanding of lamb care and disease prevention, which has led to higher survival rates for lambs [5][8] - The region is promoting a comprehensive approach to livestock management, integrating breeding, feeding, and health care to enhance overall productivity and animal welfare [7][8] Group 4: Future Goals - By 2025, Inner Mongolia aims to continue its efforts in livestock quality improvement through subsidies and breeding programs, ensuring stable growth in livestock production [2] - The region plans to build and expand over 5 million square meters of livestock housing by 2024, further enhancing its infrastructure for livestock farming [6]

出栏增长成本稳降，定增落地持续成长，维持"买入"评级公司发布2024 年年报，2024 公司营收90.92 亿 元(+5.98%)，归母净利润0.73 亿元(+112.08%)。单Q4 营收26.07 亿元(+7.96%)，归母净利润0.20 亿元 (+107.96%)。 公司出栏稳步增长，成本持续下降，我们上调公司2025-2026 年盈利预测，新增2027 年盈利预测，预计 公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为2.83/3.38/11.21（2025-2026 年原预测分别为1.59/2.13）亿元，对应 EPS 分别为0.45/0.53/1.77元，当前股价对应PE 为24.4/20.4/6.2 倍。公司出栏增长成本稳降，定增落地持 续成长，维持"买入"评级。 2025-2026 年公司生猪出栏目标分别为300-350/400-500 万头，出栏稳步增长。成本方面，2024 年公司 生猪完全成本15.4 元/公斤，2025M3 完全成本14.2 元/公斤，公司推动高性能种群更替，拓展代养模 式，成本稳步下降。截至2025 年3 月末，公司能繁存栏约16 万头，2025 年末能繁存栏目标达20 万头 ...

近期罗牛山（000735）发布2025年一季报，证券之星财报模型分析如下： 经营业绩显著下滑 罗牛山在2025年一季度的财务报告显示，公司营业总收入为4.51亿元，较去年同期下降了50.74%；归母 净利润为812.18万元，同比减少了91.36%；扣非净利润为414.95万元，同比降幅高达96.36%。这表明公 司在该季度的盈利能力受到了严重影响。 成本与费用增加 值得注意的是，本报告期罗牛山的三费(财务费用、销售费用和管理费用)占比上升明显，总和占总营收 的比例达到了15.45%，相比去年同期增长了29.5%。这进一步压缩了公司的利润空间。 主要财务指标恶化 从具体财务指标来看，公司的毛利率为16.75%，同比减少了1.97个百分点；净利率为3.71%，同比大幅 下降了58.62%。每股收益也从去年同期的0.08元降至0.01元，降幅为91.31%。此外，每股经营性现金流 为-0.04元，同比减少了79.32%，显示出公司在经营活动中的现金流出压力增大。 现金流状况堪忧 财报体检工具提示，公司需特别关注现金流状况。截至报告期末，货币资金为6.04亿元，较去年同期减 少了18.73%。同时，货币资金与流动负 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "cloud farming" and "cloud breeding" models has attracted both investors and fraudsters, leading to significant financial scams in the agricultural sector [1][12]. Group 1: Cloud Farming and Investment Model - The concept of "cloud farming" allows investors to adopt livestock or crops, promising returns that seem guaranteed, such as a monthly rebate of 2% to 5% [8][12]. - In this case, a company claimed to operate a pig breeding farm in Hunan, organizing free trips for potential investors to visit the farm and witness the operations firsthand [6][9]. Group 2: Fraudulent Activities - The company involved did not actually engage in pig farming; instead, it was a well-orchestrated scam that misled investors into believing they were participating in a legitimate business [12][18]. - The scheme involved creating multiple companies to gain trust, organizing farm visits, and promising high returns, ultimately leading to the disappearance of the company and its funds [22][23]. Group 3: Victim Impact - Over 30 individuals in Guizhou were defrauded, with total losses exceeding 600,000 yuan, primarily affecting middle-aged and elderly investors who were less likely to report their losses [22][20]. - Victims were often left in a vulnerable position, feeling ashamed to disclose their losses to family members, which exacerbated their financial difficulties [20].