就在财联社周一刚警告"某些股票会被AI啃得只剩骨头"后没过两天，预言中的景象就在欧美各地上演。 当地时间周二，受到知名SaaS概念股Monday.com Ltd.发布财报后股价暴跌30%冲击，欧洲投资者纷纷开始抛售当地软件公司股票。 欧洲市值最高上市公司、德国"七巨头"之一的SAP跳水6.76%，市值蒸发近195亿欧元（约合人民币1636亿元）。 英国软件公司 Sage Group也下跌近5%，法国达索系统公司也跌1.62%。 （SAP德股日线图，来源：TradingView） 背后的原因不难理解：随着 AI工具得以更快、更低成本地开发应用 ，现有软件厂商可能会面临剧烈增加的竞争风险。 就在上周，OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥尔特曼还特意表示， SaaS行业很快将进入快消品时代 。 （来源：X） 他指出："投资者担心人工智能会吞噬软件行业，市盈率将土崩瓦解。我认为这种恐惧被夸大了，但无论如何， 我们确实正处于一个时期， 投资者对这个板块根本不感兴趣 。" 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 RBC资本市场的Matthew Hedberg团队在周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI data has positively influenced the US stock market, leading to significant gains in major indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs [1]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.13% to 6445.76 points, the Nasdaq composite increased by 1.39% to 21681.9 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 1.1% to 44458.61 points [1]. - The Russell 2000 index, which is seen as a beneficiary of interest rate cuts, surged nearly 3% [3]. Sector Highlights - Technology stocks rebounded, with notable performances from major companies: Apple up 1.09%, Microsoft up 1.43%, Amazon up 0.08%, Nvidia up 0.6%, Google-A up 1.16%, Tesla up 0.53%, and Meta up 3.15% [7]. - Intel experienced a significant increase of 5.62%, with a two-day gain of 11% following a shift in Trump's stance [8]. - Other companies such as Electronic Arts, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley also reached historical highs [9]. International Market - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.49%, with Alibaba up 3.19%, JD.com up 3.01%, Baidu up 2.14%, and Pinduoduo up 3% [10]. - However, some Chinese companies faced declines, such as NIO down 8.96% and XPeng down 6.08% [10].

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's performance remains strong as U.S. businesses increasingly invest in AI software to enhance operational efficiency, but the company's current stock valuation is considered unsustainable, reminiscent of post-2000 internet bubble stocks. Analysts hold a bearish view on the stock, suggesting that investors are engaging in a risky game [1]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Palantir's revenue surged by 48%, surpassing $1 billion for the first time, with U.S. commercial revenue growing an impressive 93%, although June's quarterly sales reached only $306 million [2]. - The total contract value for Palantir this quarter reached $2.3 billion, with an annual contract value of $684 million and an average contract duration of three years, indicating strong future demand [5]. Growth Potential and Challenges - Palantir's high growth rate is attributed to its early-stage position in the AI business, but as revenue scales to $5-10 billion, growth is expected to slow down. The CEO noted that the company has just emerged from a "virtual startup phase" after over 20 years of development [3][4]. - The company reported a significant increase in U.S. commercial accounts, which rose by 64% to 485 accounts [6]. Valuation Concerns - Palantir's stock valuation is deemed excessive, with stock-based compensation leading to a market cap increase of nearly $28 billion, while projected revenue is only expected to reach $4.15 billion. This discrepancy highlights a valuation that is seven times the revenue target, exceeding that of large enterprise software companies like Salesforce [5][9]. - The diluted share count increased by 148 million over the past year, resulting in a diluted market cap of $474 billion, while analysts predict revenue will only exceed $40 billion by 2033 [9]. Market Dynamics - The stock price is currently 12 times the revenue target for eight years out, and even when considering high profit margins, the stock price reflects a 30 times multiple on projected earnings per share of $6.10 by 2033 [10]. - Palantir's operational profit margin is inflated due to a significant gap between GAAP and adjusted profit margins, raising concerns about the sustainability of such high margins in a normal tech company [9]. Employee Incentives and Risks - The high level of stock-based compensation may limit future appreciation opportunities for employees, potentially leading to a "semi-retirement" scenario where employees lose motivation due to stock value increases [14]. - Despite the risks, the stock could continue to rise, with potential for significant price increases, but any business setbacks could lead to drastic declines in stock value [15].

7月14日，山东魏桥创业集团的纺织车间内，一名女工正在巡查纺纱生产线。 芯片、机器人、遥感卫星……作为制造大省，山东民营企业持续上新、率先破局，变"看不准的预 期"为"算得清的产值"，头雁领航、雁阵齐飞的企业矩阵构成了"世界工厂"攀高向强的底气，成为经济 调整过后信心回归的关键所在。 8月7日，山东省委、省政府召开民营企业座谈会，为打好服务民营企业的"必答题"展现出真抓实干的决 心与魄力。 全球首台超级轧环机在山东伊莱特投产 梯度培育体系强企 经略万亿级新蓝海赛道 作为全国唯一覆盖全部41个工业大类的省份，工业基础雄厚、产业链条完整的山东也是民营企业扎根于 此、茁壮成长的沃土。在规模上，"大块头"魏桥集团、南山集团、东明石化等营收超千亿；在转型升级 上，利华益集团、山东京博控股集团等石化企业多瞄向高端产品。 依托链主引领、聚链成群效应，泰山钢铁以"链长制"，构建全产业链健康稳固的供需体系；齐鲁制药带 动山东医药产业链上下游企业做大做强……不少民营企业"链主"，在固链延链强链补链中发挥引领作 用。 顶层"指挥棒"挥动，万亿级蓝海的想象空间随之打开，成为民企长足发展的信心所在。 "好措施＋好服务"助企 制造业民企 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International Software Group Limited reported a revenue of approximately 3.192 billion RMB for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 11.2%. The loss attributable to equity holders was approximately 97.74 million RMB, a reduction of about 55.1% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue from customer contracts was 3.192 billion RMB, up from 2.870 billion RMB in the previous year [2]. - Gross profit for the period was approximately 2.095 billion RMB, compared to 1.815 billion RMB in the prior year [2]. - The administrative expenses surged by approximately 39% to about 346 million RMB, primarily due to personnel restructuring and increased severance payments [7]. - The company has incurred cumulative losses of approximately 1.379 billion RMB over the past five years, continuing to report losses in the first half of 2025 [5][7]. Strategic Initiatives - Kingdee has increased its marketing efforts and raised sales and promotion expenses significantly over the years, with expenses reaching approximately 2.503 billion RMB in 2024 [7]. - The company has been investing in research and development, with R&D costs amounting to approximately 776 million RMB in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year [7]. - Kingdee's cloud transformation has been ongoing for over a decade, with cloud service revenue now accounting for 81.6% of total revenue [8]. Market Position and Challenges - Despite the growth in cloud subscription revenue, which was approximately 1.684 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, the growth rate has shown a decline over the years [8]. - The company has established an international business department and expanded into the Middle East, but overseas revenue remains low, accounting for only 1.3% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [8]. - Kingdee's stock price fell by 8.41% to 16 HKD per share following the mid-term performance announcement [3]. Shareholder Activity - On August 4, 2023, BlackRock reduced its stake in Kingdee by selling 2.791 million shares at an average price of 18.4159 HKD per share, amounting to approximately 51.4 million HKD [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETF grid strategies focusing on Chinese internet, technology, software, and chip sectors, highlighting the potential for investment opportunities driven by regulatory changes and technological advancements [2][4][7][14]. Group 1: Chinese Internet ETF (159605.SZ) - The Chinese Internet ETF tracks the China Internet 30 Index, focusing on 30 leading Chinese internet companies listed in Hong Kong and the US, covering sectors like social media, e-commerce, gaming, and AI [4]. - Recent government reports emphasize the need to address "involution" in competition, particularly in the food delivery sector, promoting a healthier competitive environment [3]. - The ETF is positioned to benefit from a new wave of internet development driven by generative AI and a shift from "traffic-driven" to "technology + scenario-driven" business models [4]. Group 2: Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010.SH) - The Hang Seng Technology ETF tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, which includes 30 leading technology companies in Hong Kong, focusing on high-growth sectors such as new consumption, internet, biomedicine, and semiconductors [7]. - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 731.2 billion, indicating strong foreign interest and market liquidity [6]. - The current PE-TTM ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index is 21.26, which is relatively low compared to its historical average, suggesting potential investment value [7]. Group 3: Software ETF (159852.SZ) - The Software ETF is influenced by government initiatives promoting "AI+" applications across various sectors, leading to significant advancements in the software industry [10]. - AI technologies are transforming software development processes, enhancing efficiency and driving a shift from labor-intensive to intelligent, value-creating models [11]. Group 4: Chip ETF (159995.SZ) - The Chip ETF is positioned amid a backdrop of easing restrictions on chip exports to China, although long-term challenges remain due to ongoing U.S. export controls [14]. - The establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund III, with a registered capital of RMB 344 billion, aims to accelerate domestic chip production and reduce reliance on foreign technology [14]. - The focus on domestic chip development is expected to enhance the entire supply chain from research and development to production, supporting the goal of technological independence [14].

Core Insights - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference 2025 showcased the rapid transformation of various industries through AI technology, emphasizing the potential of "universal interfaces" that connect different sectors and support diverse applications [1] - Investment manager Li Jing believes that companies with cross-scenario applicability and foundational technologies will serve as "anti-cyclical anchors" in technology investments, driving continuous innovation and prosperity in the AI ecosystem [1] Investment Strategy - Li Jing has over 16 years of experience in the TMT sector and emphasizes the importance of balancing growth potential with downside protection in her investment framework [2][3] - The investment approach incorporates a focus on "odds," assessing both upward growth and downward safety margins, particularly during market volatility [2] - A comprehensive industry analysis framework is established to identify high-growth companies at reasonable valuations [2][3] Selection Criteria - Companies that define industries rather than being defined by customers are prioritized, as they tend to have higher return on equity (ROE) and stronger market positions [4] - Li Jing focuses on firms with universal technologies or standardized products, which are less vulnerable to customer concentration risks [4] Emerging Opportunities - Li Jing identifies undervalued intersections in industries such as semiconductors, machinery, chemicals, electronics, and software, where technology drives higher success rates [6] - A specific example includes the undervaluation of copper connection technology in AI infrastructure, which was recognized as a significant investment opportunity despite market misconceptions favoring optical modules [6] Verification and Validation - The investment strategy emphasizes "verifiability" to enhance success rates and identify positive turning points in industry development [7] - Cross-industry and cross-segment validation is employed to improve judgment accuracy, using downstream customer data to assess the performance of companies [7] Future Trends - Li Jing is particularly optimistic about AI-enabled terminal hardware, viewing robots as the ultimate form of AI application, with a focus on system-on-chip (SoC) technology as a core beneficiary [8] - The investment strategy includes a proactive approach to increasing exposure to overseas computing power, especially in ASIC technology, while maintaining a strong outlook on AI hardware [8] Risk Management - The investment strategy follows a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) approach, focusing on intrinsic value and entering positions when undervalued [9] - Core positions are held long-term, while trading positions are adjusted flexibly to balance risk and return [10] Team Dynamics - The company fosters an open and inclusive culture that encourages deep research and value investing, allowing for personal insights and adaptability in investment strategies [14][15] - The investment team, with an average of 13 years of experience, emphasizes the importance of industry background to capture emerging trends effectively [15] Continuous Improvement - The team maintains a commitment to exploring new strategies and products, ensuring a proactive approach to changes in technology and market dynamics [17]

Core Insights - The software industry in China reported a revenue of 42,582 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [1] - The total profit of the software industry reached 5,075 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1] - Software exports amounted to 17.26 billion USD, showing a growth of 3.5% compared to the previous year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Software product revenue was 9,933 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, accounting for 23.3% of the total industry revenue [1] - Basic software revenue was 536 billion yuan, with an increase of 8.6% [1] - Industrial software product revenue reached 913 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% [1] Information Technology Services - Revenue from information technology services was 28,415 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, constituting 66.7% of the total industry revenue [1] - Cloud computing and big data services generated 4,658 billion yuan, with a growth of 11.4%, representing 16.4% of the information technology services revenue [1] - Integrated circuit design revenue was 1,210 billion yuan, showing an 18.0% increase [1] - E-commerce platform technology service revenue reached 3,341 billion yuan, with an 8.1% growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The interview with Huawei's CEO Ren Zhengfei reflects a strong confidence in the company's ability to overcome challenges and focus on its own development despite external pressures and criticisms [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges and Responses - Ren emphasizes the importance of not dwelling on difficulties but rather taking action step by step to move forward [3]. - He acknowledges that while Huawei faces challenges, many Chinese chip companies are making significant efforts, particularly in compound semiconductors, and Huawei is working to improve its chip technology [4][5]. Group 2: Research and Development - Huawei invests approximately 180 billion yuan in R&D annually, with around 60 billion yuan dedicated to basic theoretical research, which is not subject to performance evaluation [11]. - The company believes that without foundational research, breakthroughs in technology cannot be achieved, which is essential to compete with the U.S. [11]. Group 3: The Role of Theoretical Research - Ren highlights the long-term nature of theoretical research, stating that it often takes decades to yield results, and stresses the need for societal understanding and support for theoretical scientists [10][12]. - He cites historical examples of scientific breakthroughs that took time to be recognized, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic investment in research [9][10]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Advantages - Ren expresses optimism about China's future in artificial intelligence, citing the country's vast youth population and strong infrastructure as key advantages [14][16]. - He believes that the integration of AI into manufacturing will lead to the emergence of unique Chinese models, enhancing the country's manufacturing capabilities [16]. Group 5: Market and Economic Environment - The company advocates for a legal and market-oriented environment to support the development of private enterprises, which is crucial for economic vitality [17]. - Ren discusses the importance of national openness and unity in creating a large, integrated market that can overcome external barriers [18].

财华社8月12日讯，中泰国际发布了每周策略报告称，港股市场风险偏好持续走强，推动大盘高位震 荡。7月中国出口韧性超预期，进口同比增速创一年多新高，下游物价温和修复，上游降价压力仍存， 基本面整体延续温和改善，叠加市场预期政策聚焦结构性发力，港股整体仍有上升支撑力。 中泰国际强调，当前港股盈利预期稳健，恒指2025/2026年预测盈利增速2.7%/8.5%，上游资源板块受益 反内卷政策引领改善，叠加中国债市企稳（10年期国债收益率＞1.7%）支撑盈利上修动能。然而，当 前港股估值短期已大幅修复，恒指预测PE回归2018-2019年中枢，风险溢价处历史低位与AH溢价创近六 年新低，叠加8月进入港股季节性的淡季，中报业绩期将集中验证基本面，市场有理由高位整固。 美元指数方面，中泰国际认为美元指数持续受三重压制：经济动能弱化（ISM服务业和制造业均超预期 走弱）、政策独立性风险（特朗普拟任命鸽派理事冲击美联储决策）、地缘避险溢价消退（美俄会晤推 升俄乌停火预期）。 该行指出，当前市场对9月降息概率定价已达87%。料短期美元指数保持震荡偏弱格局，仍待经济数 据、关税战终章进展、特朗普对美联储独立性影响几何等重点事件明朗 ...