哈费勒最新的谨慎态度与其4月10日上调美股评级形成了逆转，当时正值特朗普宣布暂停实施一周前加 征的大部分关税后的第二天。 哈费勒表示，自瑞银上调评级以来，标普500指数已经攀升了约11%，这使得风险与回报更加平衡。 这位瑞银买方首席投资官还将他的评级调整与周一中美宣布相互削减关税、股市大幅上涨联系起来。中 美关税削减缓解了短期担忧，此前人们担心特朗普的高额关税计划会引发世界两大经济体之间的贸易 战。 尽管在中美调整双边关税水平后华尔街其他机构变得更加乐观，但瑞银财富（UBS Wealth）周二仍对 美股采取观望态度，对近期反弹表示怀疑。 瑞银的投资主管马克・哈费勒（Mark Haefele）将美国股市的评级从"有吸引力"下调至"中立"，他指 出，他并非看空股市，也不是建议客户抛售股票，而是认为过去一个月股市上涨过快。此前，在4月初 美国宣布新关税政策后，投资者变得过于悲观。 高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫・科斯坦（David Kostin）周二将标普500指数2025年的目标价从5900点上 调至6100点，理由是关税税率降低、经济增长前景改善以及经济衰退的可能性降低。 亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Resea ...

Millennium Management聘请瑞银集团前亚太区股票衍生品主管，是这家730亿美元投资巨头招募投资银 行高管来拓展业务的又一举动。据知情人士称，Ernest Ng将加入Millennium担任高级投资组合经理。Ng 将与前瑞信集团同事Ken Pang共事，后者目前领导Millennium的亚太股票业务主管。（彭博） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the challenges and complexities of working in investment banking, particularly for newcomers, and introduces a comprehensive learning package designed to aid their understanding and skill development in the industry [1][2]. Summary by Sections Learning Package Content - The learning package includes a printed material titled "Investment Banking Growth Notes," an online course on assessing the feasibility of corporate listings, and a customized notebook [4][46]. Investment Banking Growth Notes - The "Investment Banking Growth Notes" consists of 312 pages, over 120,000 words, and 9 chapters, covering career planning, industry insights, essential skills such as research, due diligence, finance, valuation, and the current focus areas in IPO processes [5][9]. Chapters Overview - Chapters 1 and 2 provide foundational knowledge about investment banking, including department divisions, regulatory frameworks, essential skills, project classifications, daily tasks, personnel sources, and future industry trends [9][12]. - Chapters 3 to 7, which constitute about 62% of the content, detail the professional skills necessary for investment banking, including industry research, client acquisition techniques, due diligence, financial thinking, and company valuation [12][19]. Industry Research Skills - Chapter 3 outlines essential industry research skills, including quantitative thinking, macro data analysis, industry segmentation, due diligence guidelines, financial metrics analysis, and practical research techniques [12][16]. Client Acquisition and Due Diligence - Chapter 4 shares insights from a seasoned professional on acquiring IPO business, discussing market conditions, channel development, and preparation for client meetings [19][23]. - Chapter 5 focuses on the due diligence process, detailing information collection, verification, and analysis, along with 12 specific operational steps [28][30]. Financial Analysis and Valuation - Chapter 6 emphasizes understanding a company's true financial status through balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements, including key financial indicators and underlying logic for analysis [30][32]. - Chapter 7 discusses valuation methods, including relative and absolute valuation techniques, and offers practical advice for companies to enhance their valuation [33][34]. IPO Process Insights - Chapters 8 and 9 focus on IPO projects, addressing common regulatory concerns and outlining the responsibilities of various departments during the IPO process [35][36][40]. Practical Application - The content is designed to be practical and applicable, drawing from the experiences of investment banking professionals and corporate executives, making it accessible for those interested in deepening their knowledge in the field [44].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its S&P 500 index target, lowering the short-term forecast from 6200 to 5900 points, while maintaining a long-term optimistic outlook with a 12-month target raised to 6500 points, reflecting structural market opportunities [1][3] - The current market pricing implies optimistic expectations for economic growth, but potential risks of slowing economic and corporate earnings growth may limit valuation expansion in the coming months [3] - The adjustment in target prices indicates a reassessment of market drivers, with previous concerns over recession risks and US-China tariff disputes easing due to a recent phase one trade agreement and stronger-than-expected earnings from tech giants [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the strategic importance of the technology sector, driven by a capital expenditure cycle propelled by generative AI technology, which is expected to lead in earnings growth and cash flow generation [3] - The firm warns of uncertainties in the tariff environment by 2025, projecting that the average tariff rate on US imports from China will remain above 30%, significantly higher than the 4.3% level in 2024, which could pressure corporate profit margins [3] - The current dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has reached 21.5, at the 85th percentile over the past decade, indicating that corporate earnings growth must exceed 10% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 to alleviate valuation pressures [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3255 per ounce, with a significant buying interest emerging after a dip to $3207.30 per ounce, indicating strong investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a slight easing of inflation pressures, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease from 2.4% to 2.3%, which is below expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, reaffirming the negative correlation between the dollar's performance and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The outlook for gold is influenced by three key variables: the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and global geopolitical risks, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and India-Pakistan tensions [4] - The easing of tariffs is viewed positively, suggesting that trade resumption with China may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its current course and gradually resume rate cuts later this year [4] - Investors are advised to pay attention to upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials and the discussions at the NATO informal meeting regarding security priorities and defense investments [4]

从世界末日到狂欢：一个月内策略师完全转向，华尔街大型投行集体"认错"。 随着特朗普关税政策的戏剧性转向，华尔街分析师被迫快速修改其股市和经济预测，呈现出前所未有的 频繁变动。 摩根大通、高盛双双回撤衰退预测 摩根大通的首席经济学家Michael Feroli昨日宣布，他正在放弃一个月前做出的经济衰退预测。 在中美在经贸领域达成重要共识后，Feroli连夜"改报告"，将全年GDP增长预期从0.2%上调至0.6%， 并将衰退风险评估下调至"远低于50%"，同时将2025年首次降息预期从9月推迟至12月。 短短一个月前，由于特朗普对全球发起关税战并引发了股市抛售潮，华尔街策略师们以疯狂的速度下调 了对标普500指数和美国经济的预测。 但本周"画风突变"——特朗普政府改变方向，最近甚至与中国达成了暂时降低双方关税的协议。这迫使 同一批策略师不得不对其预测进行180度大转弯。 华尔街资深专家、Yardeni Research创始人Ed Yardeni对此表示： "这确实是一次疯狂的旅程，我很少改变我的预测，但这次我告诉客户，我保留根据总统改 变主意的频率来改变我的预测的权利。" 讽刺的是，这不是Feroli第一次"错判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic adjustment in China is characterized by a weak inflation cycle under a declining financial cycle, with productivity being a crucial dimension for analysis [1][8]. Financial Cycle - The financial cycle is defined as the long-term interaction between credit and housing prices, with a downward trend leading to credit contraction and insufficient domestic demand [9]. - During the financial cycle's expansion, productivity did not improve synchronously, indicating inefficient allocation of credit resources [12][19]. - The current financial cycle in China has seen a concentration of funds and labor in low-efficiency sectors, particularly real estate, leading to a decline in overall productivity growth [12][22]. Policy Implications - Historical experience suggests that during a declining financial cycle, both monetary and fiscal policies should be coordinated to stimulate the economy [2][33]. - The intensity of monetary and fiscal policies tends to increase as the negative impact of the cycle deepens, with a typical lag of 3 to 4 years before economic stabilization occurs [2][40]. - Current monetary policy efforts in China are relatively weaker compared to international averages, indicating room for further action [34][40]. Asset Implications - Accelerated policy efforts are expected to stabilize and potentially increase asset prices, with historical data showing that housing and stock prices tend to recover after initial declines [4][55]. - In the context of China's current economic environment, sectors such as finance, real estate, and technology are likely to perform better as policies are implemented [63]. - The ongoing global rebalancing of funds and a weak dollar environment may favor the revaluation of Chinese assets, particularly in light of domestic policy support [5][70]. Economic Development Trends - China's GDP growth from 2020 to 2025 is projected to significantly outperform international averages, attributed to factors such as manufacturing scale effects and pre-existing monetary and fiscal policy support [22][23]. - Price levels in China have shown similarities to international low-price differentiation scenarios, with a notable demand gap impacting inflation [23][24]. - The housing market in China has experienced a cumulative decline of 14% since the peak, which is more severe than the international average [24][26]. Conclusion - The analysis of the current economic cycle in China through the lenses of financial cycles, productivity, and price levels provides valuable insights into potential policy and asset performance [1][22].

中美经贸会谈为全球经济纾压增添信心，外资机构集中发声彰显对中国资产的"看多"热情。5月13日， 摩根大通上调了对2025年中国经济增速的预测，瑞银在最新报告中认为，中国经济增长预期有望改善。 资本市场方面，野村将中国股票评级从中性上调至战术超配，成为本周上调中国股票评级的首家华尔街 大行。 野村上调中国股票评级至战术超配 对宏观经济的乐观看法也传导至资本市场。虽然短期外部环境的不确定性仍可能引发市场波动，但外资 机构分析师们越来越乐观地认为，风险偏好的抬升有望推动更多资金流入中国股市。富达国际亚太区投 资总监斯图尔特·朗布尔（Stuart Rumble）直言："对市场来说是一个积极信号，有助于恢复市场信心。" 中国经济增长预期改善 具体来看，摩根大通中国首席经济学家兼大中华区经济研究主管朱海斌在周二的报告中，上调了对中国 2025年GDP增速的预测。 瑞银亚洲经济研究主管及首席中国经济学家汪涛于同日发表观点称，中国经济增长预期有望改善。她表 示："外部不确定性仍存，但未来贸易政策变化对中国GDP增长的影响可能小于我们此前基准情形的估 算。同样，2025年中国整体出口表现可能好于之前的预测。" 汪涛认为，全年人 ...

金十数据5月13日讯，美国通胀年率在4月降温，在这个月，企业在努力适应特朗普不可预测的贸易政策 的冲击。通胀月率录得0.2%，高于3月份的-0.1%，大致符合经济学家预期。4月份，特朗普关税令市场 在整个4月都动荡不安。零售商一直在努力为他们的客户保持价格稳定，但他们警告说，他们最终将不 得不提高价格。高盛经济学家表示，企业在关税生效前的提前库存可能会适度延迟将更高的价格转嫁给 消费者。 美国4月通胀年率降温 高盛：提前库存延迟通胀危机 ...

受贸易乐观情绪推动，高盛预计美国经济前景改善，并上调标普500盈利和回报预期，同时认为高定价权股票和AI股将受青睐。 据追风交易台消息，高盛在5月12日的报告中，上调了美国经济经济预期，将2025年实际GDP增长预测从0.5%上调至1%，并将美国经济衰退概率从45%下 调至35%。 进一步来看，得益于关税下调、经济增长改善以及衰退风险降低，高盛大幅上调了标普500指数的盈利预测和回报前景，预计标普500指数12个月回报率为 11%，目标位6500点，同时上调2025-2026年每股收益预期。 高盛尤其看好定价能力强和AI相关股票，强定价能力的股票能够在面对高投入成本时保持利润率，随着与关税相关的波动性消退，AI股应该也会重拾动 能。 盈利增长预期大幅提升，估值预期温和上调 高盛现在预测： 标普500指数3个月和12个月回报率分别为+1%和+11%，对应指数水平达到5900点和6500点（此前预测为5700点和6200点）。2025年年底（6 个月期）回报预测为+4%，对应指数水平达到6100点（此前为5900点）。 同时，高盛上调了标普500指数未来两年的盈利预测： 预计2025年每股收益将达262美元（同比 ...