高盛预测，MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数在2026年将分别上涨20%和12% 文｜《财经》记者 张欣培 编辑｜陆玲 郭楠 在概念板块上，商业航天热度持续。中信建投表示，当前商业航天产业在国家政策支持和产业技术突破 共同助力下，有望进入新纪元，当前商业航天发展是国企与民营企业共振周期。 对于A股近期上涨原因，星石投资副总经理、首席策略投资官方磊认为，主要在于积极因素积累、资金 情绪偏高、对利多因素反应敏感等，此轮市场上涨并非单一因素驱动，流动性因素和政策预期都对股市 表现有助力。 流动性方面，2025年12月美联储降息扩表，国内中央经济工作会议定调财政货币政策双宽格局，市场流 动性预期向好。政策方面，2025年12月中央经济工作会议定调积极政策基调，并指明2026年经济工作重 点在于扩大内需、科技创新及反内卷领域，为后续资本市场投资指明结构性机会。此外，岁末年初人民 币持续升值，美元对离岸人民币突破7的关键点位，也对市场情绪走高形成支撑。 "目前仍处于牛市中期。2025年股市整体以估值扩张为主，成长板块景气度较高，传统板块景气度触 底，股市估值扩张具有结构性分化的特征，与此同时，本轮企业盈利底大概率已经在20 ...

彭博大宗商品指数是大宗商品投资领域广泛使用的基准指数，截至去年10月，跟踪该指数的资产规模约 1000亿美元。 最猛资产突然跳水。 贵金属价格突然大幅走低， 国际金价日内一度下探近70美元，白银、铂金和钯金尾盘跌幅均超过4%。 在创下1979年以来最大年涨幅后，资金选择了落袋为安。 美国商品期货交易委员会数据显示，截至12月30日当周，COMEX黄金投机者净多头头寸减少10668手 至126873手，白银净多头减少7270手至16595手。 此外，指数再平衡调整引发市场恐慌性抛盘。 1月8日起，彭博大宗商品指数的年度权重调整将正式启动。 这不是个例。2025年全年，险资共举牌35次，创2016年以来新高。 保险资金配置股票的规模正在趋势性上升，截至2025Q3已经达到3.6万亿元，占保险资金的比例为 10%，中信证券预期未来保险资金行为将会越来越影响A股市场风格特征。 此次调整中，市场预期黄金、白银权重被明显下调：黄金:19.6%→14.9%，白银:7.7%→3.9%。 权重下调，意味着被动资金卖出。 花旗预计，黄金、白银的卖盘规模 均在70亿美元左右:黄金AUM338亿美元→270亿美元，白银AUM129 ...

"如果用一句话总结2025年中国资本市场的表现，那就是全面的超预期发挥。"胡知鸷说。 她分析称，多重因素将支持中国市场继续上行。首先，估值方面，目前MSCI中国指数市盈率约13倍， 仅略高于过去十年均值；其次，资金方面，投资者参与度仍低于历史高点；最后，从内外部环境来看， 全球经济格局的演变、"走出去"和"反内卷"政策的双重发力等，均对中国市场形成利好。 "如果用一句话总结2025年中国资本市场的表现，那就是全面的超预期发挥。" 2026年伊始，A股迎来"开门红"，沪指连续四个交易日（1月5日至8日）收于4000点上方。多家外资机 构发布展望，表示看好中国市场2026年的表现。 "从估值角度看，目前，中国资产并未进入过热区间。"瑞银集团中国区总裁胡知鸷对第一财经表示，A 股此轮行情并非由过度拥挤的交易推动，而是由捕捉新质生产力投资机遇的资金所推动。 她同时提到，去年以来，外资对中国市场的关注度显著回升，外资从此前被动等待、进进出出的流动状 态，转向为主动、长期地参与交易。 高盛也表达了对中国市场的看好。该机构在最新披露的研报中称，对A股和H股维持超配评级，2026年 市场将由估值扩张推动的增长，转向由盈利增长 ...

高盛策略师表示，中国股市2026年的回报将主要由企业盈利改善所推动。在人工智能发展、企业"出 海"以及反内卷政策的共同支撑下，盈利增速有望从2025年的4%提升，并在2026至2027年加快至约 14%。同时，南向资金净流入规模预计可达2000亿美元，或再创历史新高。行业配置方面，高盛依然看 好人工智能相关主题，在消费板块中更青睐服务型消费，并重点关注周期板块中的材料行业，同时维持 对保险板块的超配观点。 数据显示，2025年，MSCI中国指数上涨了23%，沪深300指数上涨了18%。中国股市在2025年实现了可 观的涨幅，且这一势头延续至新的一年。中国股市在2026年开局强劲，沪深300指数已上涨3.5%，达到 四年来最高水平;MSCI中国指数已上涨3.4%，表现优于标普500指数。高盛与其他主要机构一同保持积 极展望。此次上调预测反映了对盈利扩张、政策举措以及新增长动力将继续吸引投资者的信心。 高盛预计，随着盈利增长将受到人工智能和政策措施的支持，中国股市基准指数将在2026年进一步上 涨，尽管涨幅将较去年有所放缓。该行预计，MSCI中国指数在2026年底将达到100点，较2025年底水平 上涨20%;沪 ...

数据显示，2025年，MSCI中国指数上涨了23%，沪深300指数上涨了18%。中国股市在2025年实现了可 观的涨幅，且这一势头延续至新的一年。中国股市在2026年开局强劲，沪深300指数已上涨3.5%，达到 四年来最高水平;MSCI中国指数已上涨3.4%，表现优于标普500指数。高盛与其他主要机构一同保持积 极展望。此次上调预测反映了对盈利扩张、政策举措以及新增长动力将继续吸引投资者的信心。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛预计，随着盈利增长将受到人工智能和政策措施的支持，中国股市基准指数将 在2026年进一步上涨，尽管涨幅将较去年有所放缓。该行预计，MSCI中国指数在2026年底将达到100 点，较2025年底水平上涨20%;沪深300指数预计将在2026年上涨12%，至5200点。 高盛策略师表示，中国股市2026年的回报将主要由企业盈利改善所推动。在人工智能发展、企业"出 海"以及反内卷政策的共同支撑下，盈利增速有望从2025年的4%提升，并在2026至2027年加快至约 14%。同时，南向资金净流入规模预计可达2000亿美元，或再创历史新高。行业配置方面，高盛依然看 好人工智能相关主题，在消费板块中更青睐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has established a "slow bull" pattern driven by performance, with expected returns of 15% to 20% for major indices in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The target for the CSI 300 index in 2026 is set at 5200 points, while the MSCI China index is projected to reach 100 [1] - Earnings growth is expected to drive market returns, with projected year-on-year growth rates of 13% for the CSI 300 and 15% for the MSCI China index in 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Characteristics - The current A-share market volatility has decreased to nearly half compared to the 2014-2015 period, enhancing its attractiveness as an asset class [2] - The market is increasingly characterized by institutional participation, contrasting with the retail-driven high volatility of previous years [2] Group 3: Corporate Performance - Chinese companies are undergoing a "de-involution" process, allowing them to improve net profit margins and return on equity (ROE) despite slow revenue growth [2] - The expected ROE for Chinese stocks in 2025 is projected to grow by 12%, although the anticipated net profit margin is the lowest in the Asia-Pacific region at 5% [2] Group 4: Sector Insights - The export sector is identified as a core investment theme, with expectations of a relatively loose fiscal and monetary policy in major developed countries in the first half of 2026, which may boost demand for Chinese exports [2] - The food and beverage industry is highlighted as a sector poised for recovery, with current valuations below those of major markets like India, the US, and Japan, and potential for valuation recovery if domestic price indices stabilize [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a "spring market" driven by earnings growth in 2026, supported by policies aimed at reducing competition, advancements in AI infrastructure, and a recovering consumer market [1][2]. Market Short-term Style Shift - Morgan Stanley's China stock strategy team has shifted its outlook to positive for MSCI China and CSI 300 indices since January 9, 2023, predicting that the upward trend may continue until 2026 [2]. - A style shift from growth and momentum sectors to value, defensive, and high-dividend sectors is recommended, likely lasting until the end of this year and early next year [2]. - The MSCI China, CSI 300, and MSCI Hong Kong indices are projected to reach 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively by 2026, representing potential increases of approximately 22%, 13.5%, and 17.8% [2]. Earnings Growth as Market Driver - Stable growth in earnings per share (EPS) is identified as the core driver for sustained market growth [3]. - The proportion of companies in the MSCI China index with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased since May [3]. - The current net profit margin of Chinese listed companies (excluding the financial sector) is relatively low in the Asia-Pacific region, but the return on equity (ROE) remains strong [3]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign long-term funds have increased their holdings in the Chinese stock market, with a 100 basis point rise in the holdings of global active funds by the end of October [4]. - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: "anti-involution," AI, overseas expansion, and consumption, with real estate as a potential theme [4][5]. Sector-Specific Insights - The "anti-involution" theme focuses on sectors with strong growth prospects, such as batteries and photovoltaics, as well as macro-sensitive sectors like steel and cement [5]. - Companies with overseas operations are expected to gain more attention from global investors due to their balanced business models [5]. - The essential consumer sector in MSCI China is currently undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [5]. AI Sector Analysis - The assessment of whether the AI sector is in a bubble depends on valuation levels, with recent corrections observed in semiconductor hardware valuations [6]. - The focus is on energy storage companies within AI infrastructure, which are currently in a recovery phase [6]. - The technology sector's performance in the fourth quarter is crucial for sustaining high expectations, with long-term growth dependent on companies improving quality and profitability [6].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight," indicating a higher likelihood of significant gains next year compared to potential downside risks [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent adjustment in Chinese assets provides an attractive entry point for investors, especially after a substantial rise earlier this year, with the MSCI China Index experiencing a nearly 6% pullback in the fourth quarter [1]. - In April, during market turbulence, JPMorgan advised investors to buy Chinese stocks, leading to a more than 30% increase in the MSCI China Index since then [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Multiple factors are expected to support the strength of Chinese stocks next year, including the proliferation of artificial intelligence, consumer stimulus measures, and governance reforms [5]. - The Chinese stock market is still in the early recovery phase following the previous down cycle, suggesting that valuations remain reasonable and investor positions are relatively light [5]. - The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index is projected to rise to 1,025 points next year, representing an approximate 15% increase from the recent closing level [5]. Group 3: Regional Comparisons - Besides Chinese stocks, JPMorgan's strategy team has also given an overweight rating to stocks in South Korea and India [5]. - The Indian stock market, which has shown a V-shaped recovery over the past 14 months, is expected to see the Nifty50 index rise to 30,000 points by the end of 2026, reflecting a potential 15% increase from current levels [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that GF Securities has been included in the MSCI China Index, effective November 25, 2025, which signifies its recognition in the international capital market [1][4]. - MSCI indices are widely adopted benchmarks for institutional investors, with strict selection criteria based on market capitalization, stock liquidity, and industry representation [3]. - The inclusion of GF Securities in the MSCI China Index enhances its visibility and investment appeal among global investors, providing a diversified option for allocating Chinese assets [4]. Group 2 - GF Securities is recognized as a leading comprehensive securities company in China, characterized by stable operating performance, a complete business system, and a balanced business structure [4]. - The addition of GF Securities to the MSCI China Index reflects its long-term investment value and authority recognition in the global capital market [4].

Group 1 - 16 hard technology-themed funds have been approved, including 7 AI ETFs, 3 chip ETFs, 4 chip design ETFs, and 2 actively managed technology equity funds from various fund managers such as E Fund, GF Fund, and Invesco Great Wall Fund, expected to be launched soon [1] - QDII products, represented by indices like Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, have tightened subscription limits, with some products suspending subscriptions due to high premium rates in the market, indicating a disparity in technology asset performance across different markets [1] - MSCI announced the results of its index review for November 2025, which will take effect after the market closes on November 24, including the addition of 26 Chinese stocks and the removal of 20 stocks from the MSCI China Index [1]