2026年开年，存款市场迎来重要变化。曾作为银行"揽储利器"的大额存单，利率持续下行，部分中小银 行3个月期产品利率首次跌破1%，正式进入"0 字头"区间。 大额存单短期限产品利率跌破1%，成为近年来首次出现的市场现象。 这一变化，不仅正在改写储户对于"高息存款"的旧有认知，更推动整个理财市场迎来资产配置的重构浪 潮。 根据中国货币网公开信息，今年已有超40家银行发布2026年第一期大额存单发行公告。在"期限"和"利 率"两个方面都有明显不同于往年的变化。 记者登陆部分银行手机银行App看到，在大额存单转让专区，投资者可选择购买其他人正在转出的大额 存单，但并不支持所谓"定向转让"的操作。 市场普遍关注，未来大额存单市场走势如何？ 以往相较于国有大行在利率上有所优势的中小银行，在今年开年的新发产品中，也没有表现出"应有 的"优势。 例如，云南腾冲农商银行、隆阳农商行在1月初发行的期限3个月大额存单，利率均为0.95%。淮北农村 商业银行针对机构发行的3个月期单位大额存单，起存金额高达1000万元，利率也仅1%。 这意味着，从利率上看，大额存单新发行产品利率与普通定期存款差距进一步拉平。存款利率下行趋势 在进入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development Bank plans to invest over 290 billion RMB in 2025 to support the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 1: Investment Focus - In 2025, the National Development Bank will focus on key areas such as infrastructure, international industrial cooperation, trade, and financial collaboration [1] - The bank will utilize various financial products and services, including RMB financing windows and special loans for the Belt and Road Initiative, to support significant projects and smaller community-focused initiatives [1] Group 2: Strategic Goals - The bank aims to enhance "hard connectivity" in infrastructure, "soft connectivity" in rules and standards, and "people-to-people connectivity" among the countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - The International Financial Department of the National Development Bank will leverage its comprehensive financial service advantages to strengthen traditional cooperation and gradually expand into emerging areas [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses various dividend yields of different indices and ETFs, highlighting the performance of low volatility and high dividend yield funds in the Chinese market [1][3][7] - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF has a dividend yield of 5.60%, while the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity ETF has a yield of 4.76% [1][7] - The China A500 Low Volatility Dividend Index has a yield of 4.49%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Value Index has a yield of 4.29% [2][3][7] Group 2 - The article provides a comparison of various financial metrics, including the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.50% and the 1-year LPR at 3.00% [3][7] - It also mentions the yield of 30-year government bonds at 2.27% and the rental return rates in major cities, such as Tianjin at 2.36% and Shanghai at 1.95% [3][7] - The article notes that the yields and rates are based on data as of December 31, 2025, and are subject to change [3][7]

每经记者｜刘嘉魁 每经编辑｜陈柯名 廖丹 凌晨点外卖次数过多，银行卡竟被风控冻结。一套基于机器学习的风控系统，正让寻常消费行为与电诈特征在深夜的支付路口狭路相逢。 日前，一名网友在社交平台展示了一张带有反诈中心公章的解封证明，其"可疑交易说明"一栏写着"主要是晚上凌晨点外卖次数较多被风控"。这位网友调 侃道："没玩梗，是真的，盖章之后解开了。" | | C-C-C-G | | --- | --- | | 联系地址 | S | | 人联系方式 | | | 1 交易说明 | →面上临上海量占外实,以前身之散入行。 | | 中心审核意见 是否建议解除管 | | | 控) | | | 心审核人(签章) | 联系方式 官 | | | 注:此表一式两份,银行(金融机构)开户网点、公安机关反 | 图片来源：某社交平台 金融消费者如何降低被"误伤"的概率？万一被管控，如何高效解决？银行业研究人士表示，银行的风控系统主要是通过机器学习模型，识别与已知电信诈 骗等非法活动相似的可疑交易模式。金融消费者要注意避开敏感交易特征、保持信息真实有效、远离风险账户等。 消费者被"误伤"： 风控模型难以精准识别"可疑"外卖 类似上述网友的案 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a mixed performance in the U.S. stock market, with major indices showing slight gains, while large banks reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings, leading to declines in bank stocks [1][3]. - The Dow Jones increased by 0.6% to 49,442.44 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.26% to 6,944.47 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.25% to 23,530.02 points [1]. - Goldman Sachs and Nvidia were notable gainers, with Goldman Sachs rising over 4% and Nvidia increasing by more than 2% [1]. Group 2 - U.S. six major banks announced over $140 billion in dividends and stock buybacks in 2025, surpassing the previous record set in 2019 [1]. - JPMorgan Chase repurchased over $30 billion in stock, marking the highest record for Wall Street banks and more than three times its buyback amount from two years ago [1]. - Despite the strong buyback trend, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reported declines in profits, with Wells Fargo's stock dropping by 4.7% and Citigroup's by 3.3% [1][3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 货币政策结构性降息，大类资产震荡调整 ——中信期货晨报20260116 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-01-15 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 炉深300期货 | 4746.6 | 0. 09 | 0.06 | 3. 19 | 3. 19 | 3. 19 | | | 上证50期货 | 3108 | -0.36 | -0. 85 | 2.74 | 2.74 | 2. 74 | | | 中证500期货 | 8206. 8 | 0. 03 | 2.1 | 11. 46 | 11. 46 | 11. 46 | | | 中证1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The majority of December's financial data exceeded market expectations, with various policies having mixed impacts on different sectors [1][4][25] - Gold prices fluctuated and closed lower, with short - term precious metal rallies slowing down. The US dollar is expected to continue its short - term recovery. US stock index futures are expected to be volatile during the earnings season but remain bullish overall. A - share index futures still have upward momentum, while treasury bond futures are generally bearish [2][13][17][21][23] - Different commodities have different trends. For example, coal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, iron ore has support at the bottom, steel prices should be treated with a volatile mindset, and the prices of various agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals also show different characteristics [30][32][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Paulson tends to keep interest rates unchanged in the next meeting, may cut rates slightly later this year, and expects inflation to fall to 2% by December. The US initial jobless claims last week were 198,000, lower than expected. Gold prices fluctuated and closed lower due to reduced risk - aversion sentiment and hawkish remarks from Fed officials. Short - term precious metal rallies slow down, and it is advisable to beware of correction risks and consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [12][13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 198,000, lower than all expectations. Fed officials have different views on inflation and interest rates. The labor market remains resilient, and the US dollar is expected to continue its short - term recovery [14][16][17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed's Schmid believes there is no reason to cut rates currently. Goldman Sachs' Q4 net profit increased by 12% year - on - year, and TSMC's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, indicating strong demand in the AI chip industry. During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile but remain bullish overall [18][19][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In December 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 25BP, providing liquidity support to the market. The A - share market is expected to have upward momentum, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - December's financial data exceeded market expectations. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and conducted reverse repurchase operations. The impact on the bond market is mixed but generally bearish. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [25][27][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On January 15, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable. The downstream daily consumption has been weak, and the supply adjustment has accelerated. The coal price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether coal mines will have an early holiday before the Spring Festival and the implementation of Indonesia's 2026 tariffs [30] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto and BHP will jointly develop 200 million tons of iron ore in the Pilbara region. The iron ore inventory at ports continues to accumulate, and the steel mills' restocking is weak. However, the molten iron is expected to recover moderately, providing support for iron ore prices [31][32] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - As of January 15, the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 69,100 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory pattern is acceptable, but the inventory inflection point is approaching, and the supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to treat steel prices with a volatile mindset and hedge inventory at high prices if the price rebounds [33][34][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB estimates Brazil's soybean production in the 25/26 season to be 176.12 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous year but a 1 - million - ton decrease from the December estimate. NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history. It is recommended to maintain the view of weak and volatile soybean meal prices and pay attention to South American weather, domestic auctions, and customs policies [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The basis quotes in the cotton market have increased significantly. In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports increased seasonally month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, with textiles showing stronger resilience and clothing facing greater pressure. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [38][41][43] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% month - on - month. The oil market was weak due to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and Sino - Canadian talks. It is recommended to wait for new drivers in the palm oil market and pay attention to the official results of Sino - Canadian talks for rapeseed oil. Short - term long positions can be considered at low prices if sentiment stabilizes and the production cut is significant [44] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On January 14, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $43.33 per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased. Starting from April 14, 2026, the LME will no longer accept the warehousing of some metal brands from two South Korean companies. The lead price is driven by strong macro factors, but the demand feedback is negative. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [45][46][48] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Starting from April 14, 2026, the LME will no longer accept the warehousing of some zinc brands from two South Korean companies. The zinc price rose significantly. The direct impact on the zinc fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait and see for spreads, and consider positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets, but the driving force is not obvious [49][52][53] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Three departments held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to regulate the market order. Tesla's lithium refinery has been put into operation. The lithium carbonate futures price has a short - term correction. It is recommended to control positions and operate cautiously due to high market sentiment and exchange intervention [54][55][56] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - State Grid's "15th Five - Year Plan" investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five - Year Plan." Codelco's Ministro Hales copper mine expansion project has obtained environmental approval. Trump has postponed the imposition of tariffs on key minerals. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [57][58][60] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - On January 14, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $105.98 per ton. The supply of tin mines is uncertain, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and it is necessary to pay attention to December's import and export data and the recovery of consumption [60][61][62] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of January 9, the US propane inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [63][65][66] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On January 15, the closing price of CEA was 78.50 yuan per ton, up 8.28% from the previous day. The carbon market is expected to be dull and the price to fluctuate widely in the current policy window period [66][67] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The demand is stable, and there may be a seasonal restocking demand before the Spring Festival. The supply load may not be maintained above 80%. It is recommended to adjust with the cost end in the short term and try long positions at low prices in the medium term [68][69][70] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, China's styrene production decreased slightly. The styrene price has risen due to unexpected maintenance and export increases. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical risks and US pure benzene tariff policies, and generally take a long - at - low approach, with the risk of excessive pure benzene imports [71][72][73] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of January 15, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers continued to accumulate. The supply has increased, and the demand has been hit by the cold repair of glass production lines. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium term and short far - month contracts at high prices [74][75] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - As of January 15, the inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased month - on - month. The glass price has been weak recently. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range of 900 - 1250 yuan per ton in 2026 and pay attention to potential supply - side changes [76]

Group 1: Company Developments - Xibei Restaurant confirmed the closure of 102 stores, which accounts for 30% of its total outlets, and assured customers that stored value cards can be used at other locations or refunded [1] - Thunder restarted litigation against former CEO Chen Lei, claiming damages of up to 200 million yuan due to alleged hidden asset extraction through a shadow company [3] - Xiaomi's new SU7 model will offer nine color options and is expected to launch in April 2026 with a starting price of 229,900 yuan [4] - Ideal Auto appointed Zhan Kun to lead the base model business, focusing on the development of the VLA (Vision-Language-Action) model [5] - Meituan entered the car sales market by signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai Xiche Future Intelligent Technology [5] - Wang Jian's company, Bawang Tea, is suing a netizen for defamation related to personal matters, with a court date set for March 3 [5] - Citigroup's CEO Jane Fraser indicated potential layoffs as part of efforts to improve company culture and profitability [7] - Former CEO of Weilong, Sun Yinan, has joined Dayao as CEO [7] - OpenAI's former research vice president is returning to the company following a leadership change at Thinking Machines [7] Group 2: Market Trends and Financial Data - The pickup market in China is projected to sell 589,000 units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [12] - Omdia's research indicates a slight decline of 1% in China's smartphone market for 2025, with Huawei regaining the top position with 46.8 million units sold [12][13] - The total smartphone shipments in China for 2025 are estimated at 282.3 million units, with Huawei, Vivo, and Apple leading the market shares [13]

International News - The international precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with New York futures gold falling below $4610 per ounce, down 0.28% for the day [1][10] - Spot silver and New York futures silver both fell below $91 per ounce, with daily declines of 0.41% and 0.42% respectively [2][11] - Earlier, spot gold had briefly surpassed $4620 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.09% [3][12] - In geopolitical developments, the U.S. military is mobilizing land, sea, and air forces to the Middle East, with troop deployment expected to take one week [4][13] - U.S. Energy Secretary stated that Venezuela's oil production is expected to reach 1.2 million barrels per day in December, which will likely lower oil prices; current U.S. sales of Venezuelan oil are priced 30% higher than three weeks ago [4][13] - The U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive appropriations bill to fund the Departments of Commerce, Justice, Interior, and Energy, with a vote of 82 in favor and 15 against, now awaiting Trump's signature [4][13] - Following the White House's push to cut federal research spending, the Senate passed a bill to increase related expenditures [4][13] - There are differing views among Federal Reserve officials, with one favoring maintaining interest rates at the next meeting and possibly a mild rate cut later this year, while another believes that a rate cut could exacerbate inflation with limited benefits for employment [4][13] - In market data, U.S. net capital inflow for November was $212 billion, compared to a net outflow of $22.5 billion in October (previously a net outflow of $37.3 billion) [4][14] - U.S. stock markets closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow up 0.61%, Nasdaq up 0.21%, and S&P 500 up 0.27%; TSMC shares rose over 4%, reaching a historical high, with a recent increase of 5.2% [4][14] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.60%, with several Chinese concept stocks like Zhongjin Medical, Canaan Technology, and Tencent Music experiencing significant declines [6][15] - U.S. natural gas futures dropped over 3.00%, currently at $3.026 per million British thermal units [7][16] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, announced plans to remain in his position for "at least" another five years [8][17] Domestic News - In November, China held $683 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, a decrease from $689 billion in October [9][18] - Rongbai Technology announced that its stock will continue to be suspended for one day on January 16, 2026, due to inquiries from the Shanghai Stock Exchange that require further verification [9][18] - In the aerospace sector, China's Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center successfully launched the Gushenxing-1 sea-launched remote sensing rocket, carrying the Tianqi constellation's 06 group of satellites into the designated orbit; this mission marks the 23rd flight of the Gushenxing-1 rocket [9][18]

多只银行股暴涨。 当地时间1月15日（周四），美股三大股指全线上涨，截至收盘，道指上涨0.60%，标普500指数上涨0.26%，纳指上涨0.25%。 盘面上，银行股普涨，贝莱德、摩根士丹利涨近6%，高盛、花旗集团涨超4%。消息面上，摩根士丹利和高盛发布了远超市场预期的财报。 当天，多位美联储官员暗示将在接下来的议息会议上"暂停降息"，原因是劳动力市场似乎企稳，而通胀压力持续存在。 银行股爆发 当地时间1月15日（周四），美股三大股指全线上涨，截至收盘，道指上涨0.60%，标普500指数上涨0.26%，纳指上涨0.25%。 宏观数据方面，当地时间1月15日，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，截至1月10日当周，美国首次申请失业救济人数降至19.8万人，显著低于市场预期的21.5 万人，也低于前值20.8万人。这进一步缓解了市场对美国劳动力市场可能疲软的担忧，就业市场"招聘放缓但裁员未增"的稳定格局延续。 当天，多位美联储官员暗示将在接下来的议息会议上"暂停降息"，原因是劳动力市场似乎企稳，而通胀压力持续存在。 大型科技股多数上涨，台积电涨超4%，英伟达涨超2%，AMD涨近2%，亚马逊、博通、Meta小幅上涨；谷歌A、苹 ...