证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 01 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3444.43 | 0.59 | | 深证成指 | 10465.12 | 0.83 | | 创业板指 | 2153.01 | 1.35 | | 科创 50 | 1003.41 | 1.54 | | 北证 50 | 1447.18 | 0.52 | | 沪深 300 | 3936.08 | 0.37 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 668373 | 518986 | 12.31 | 1.28 | | 深证成指 | 229186 | 187895 | 20.34 | 2.15 | | 创业板指 | 60402 | 47793 | 28.11 | 3.92 | | 科创 50 | 35038 | 23365 | 54.71 | 4.21 | | 北证 50 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market ended the first half of the year positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.59% to close at 3444.43 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.83% [1] - Overall, the market exhibited a trend of oscillating upward, with major indices showing slight gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.76% in the first half, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.48%, the ChiNext Index by 0.53%, and the STAR 50 Index by 1.46%. The North Star 50 Index stood out with a significant increase of 39.45% [1] Sector Performance - In the first half, 26 out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries saw an increase, with the top five sectors being Beauty Care (24.5%), Nonferrous Metals (23.1%), National Defense and Military Industry (20%), Media (19.1%), and Machinery Equipment (17.8%) [1] - The market displayed a "dividend + small-cap growth" style, with banks and gold stocks leading the gains, while technology growth sectors such as AI, semiconductors, solid-state batteries, and innovative drugs showed strong rotation [1] Individual Stock Performance - Over 3800 stocks rose in the first half, accounting for approximately 70% of the total, with 626 stocks increasing by over 50% and 175 stocks rising by more than 100% [1] - The top five individual stocks in terms of growth were Xingtum Measurement and Control, Guangxin Technology, United Chemical, Tiangong Co., and Shutaishen, all of which saw increases exceeding four times their initial values [2] Future Outlook - Analysts expect the market to continue the small-cap style led by private equity funds in the short term, with a potential shift towards large-cap growth style as external liquidity improves and economic fundamentals recover, possibly around the fourth quarter [2] - Key areas for accelerated growth include AI hardware and applications, humanoid robots, solid-state batteries, domestic semiconductor innovation, controllable nuclear fusion, military trade overseas, and new consumption [2]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares demonstrated strong resilience in the first half of the year, with the banking index reaching historical highs, indicating structural investment opportunities in various sectors such as humanoid robots, innovative drugs, solid-state batteries, stablecoins, and new consumption [1][2]. Market Performance - On June 30, A-shares saw all major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3444.43 points, up 0.59%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10465.12 points, up 0.83%. The ChiNext Index rose 1.35% to 2153.01 points [2]. - For the first half of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.8%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices had gains around 0.5%. The North Star 50 Index performed exceptionally well, surging over 39% [2]. - Among 31 Shenwan industry sectors, the non-ferrous metals, banking, defense, and media sectors saw increases exceeding 10%, with non-ferrous metals leading at over 18% [2]. Stock Performance - Approximately 3800 A-shares recorded gains in the first half, with over 70% of stocks rising. Nearly half of these stocks saw increases of over 10%, and 135 stocks doubled in price [3]. - Small-cap stocks performed notably well, with those valued under 2 billion showing a median increase of 34.82% [3]. Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half, ranking third among major global indices, following the South Korean Composite Index and Germany's DAX Index [4]. - The Hang Seng Index's current valuation remains low, with a rolling P/E ratio below 11 and a dividend yield near 4% [4]. Future Outlook - Various brokerages maintain a positive outlook for the market, with expectations of a bull market in Chinese equity assets starting in 2025 [5]. - Goldman Sachs continues to recommend overweight positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, projecting a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4600 points, indicating over 15% upside potential [5]. - Specific sectors to watch include coal, hydropower, technology, and military industries, driven by policy support and structural reforms [5].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3444.43 points, up 0.59%, and a trading volume of 567.1 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10465.12 points, up 0.83%, with a trading volume of 919.7 billion yuan [1] - The official manufacturing PMI for June rose to 49.7, indicating a recovery in new orders, although it has remained below the expansion threshold for three consecutive months, highlighting ongoing structural risks in the economy [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy committee meeting emphasized the need for new monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand due to ongoing economic pressures. The language shifted from potential rate cuts to a more flexible approach in policy implementation [2] - Following the meeting, bond yields across various maturities increased, indicating market reactions to the changed monetary policy stance [2] Bond Market - The bond market is currently experiencing high demand, with a potential for short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking pressures. However, the overall trend remains bullish due to a combination of weak domestic and external demand and a loose monetary environment [3] - The current low policy interest rates and high market funding rates favor a continuation of the bullish bond market trend, with expectations of further declines in short-term rates potentially leading to breakthroughs in long-term rates [3][4] Defense Industry - The military industry ETF saw a significant increase of 4.37%, driven by heightened global security concerns and the necessity for national defense. The international conflicts have bolstered demand for China's military exports, particularly following the recent performance of domestic military equipment [5] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War is expected to serve as a catalyst for the military sector, potentially enhancing both supply and demand dynamics [6] Commodity Market - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly copper, is experiencing upward pressure due to tight supply conditions and rising prices. The overall low inventory levels and expectations of a loosening monetary policy are likely to support copper prices in the medium to long term [7] - The current phase of the non-ferrous metals industry is characterized by a mismatch in supply and demand, alongside expectations of profitability recovery and liquidity easing [7]

证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 06 月 30 日 抗战胜利 80 周年纪念活动将举行，军工板块或可布局 【20250623-20250629】 | ◼ | 市场回顾：上周权益市场主要指数集体反弹，北证 50 涨幅最 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 大，上涨 6.84%；债券市场长短端利率走势不一，一年期国债 | 大同证券研究中心 | | | 下行 1BP，期限利差进一步走阔，长短端 AAA 信用利差均有所 | 分析师：杨素婷 | | | 走阔；基金市场中偏股基金指数和二级债基指数均周度收涨， | 执业证书编号： | | | 中长期纯债周度收跌，短期纯债基金指数周度飘红；申万 31 个 | S0770524020002 | | | 行业涨多跌少，TMT 板块集体反弹。 | 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn | | ◼ | 权益类产品配置策略： | | | ➢ | 事件驱动策略：（1）抗战胜利 80 周年纪念活动将在 9 月 3 | | | | | 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 | | | 日举行，可关注：华安制造先锋 A(006154)、博时军工主题 | 西 ...

过去一周，国内主要市场指数中，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 均上涨，跌幅分别为 1.27%、1.95%、3.98% 和 4.62%。 回顾过去一周，5 月工业企业利润累计同比报-1.1%，较上月数值略显回落。数据的回落部分原因或由于前期关税冲击 影响的滞后显现，但往后看，中美关税协商正在稳步推进，若后续有初步协议达成，企业利润增速有望边际修复。而 市场方面，由于多方利好共振，市场在科技和综合金融板块的带动下稳步上涨。海外方面，伊朗和以色列宣布达成停 火协议，中东局势超市场预期缓和。前期受到中东局势影响拉升的原油价格也开始回落，这使得市场资金对于美国通 胀预期的担忧也有所回落，带动下半年美联储降息预期的回升，使得海外流动性回暖。地缘风险以及全球流动性的改 善，推动市场资金风险偏好明显回升。在这样的宏观背景下，有事件舆情刺激催化的板块，都能有所表现：在国泰君 安国际获批提供稳定币等虚拟资产交易服务的消息刺激下非银金融板块上涨；在 9 月 3 日抗战胜利纪念阅兵的预期催 化下军工板块行情也有所演绎；AI 板块也在美股纳斯达克指数新高的带动下表现良好。 不过我们也需要看到目前市场良好表现主 ...

2025 年 06 月 30 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——6 月第 4 期：普涨 市场估值普涨，创业板指、成长居前。上周宽基指数估值普涨，创业 板指表现最优，红利表现最弱。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，食品饮料、 农林牧渔、公用事业等行业估值较为便宜。向前看，本周市场 ERP 下降， 处于 21 年以来历史均值附近。 市场表现：微盘股、创业板指、成长表现最好；红利、消费、稳定表 现最弱。 行业表现：计算机、国防军工、非银金融涨幅前三，石油石化、食品 饮料、交通运输表现最弱。 相对估值：创业板指/沪深 300 相对 PE 上升，创业板值/沪深 300 相 对 PB 上升。 全 A ERP：ERP 较前一周下降，处于 21 年以来历史均值附近。 指数 PEG & PB-ROE: 红利 PEG 值最小，科创 50 风格 PB-ROE 值最小。 大类行业估值：金融地产估值高于 50%历史分位，原材料、设备制造、 工业服务、交通运输、消费、科技历史估值处于 50%左右及以下水平。 一级行业估值：各行业估值普涨，非银金融、农林牧渔、家电、食品 饮料估值处于近一年低位。 热门概念：无人驾驶、半导体材料、培育砖石、第 ...

6月30日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3444.43点，上涨0.59%；深证成指收报10465.12点，上涨0.83%；创业板指收 报2153.01点，上涨1.35%。两市合计成交14868.57亿元，较上一交易日减少542.44亿元。 2. 沪深300主力资金净流出近27亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流出26.76亿元，创业板净流出8.66亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2025-6-30 | -26.76 | -8. 66 | -9. 17 | | 2025-6-27 | 11.90 | -99. 35 | -3.08 | | 2025-6-26 | -52. 46 | -147. 39 | 1. 39 | | 2025-6-25 | 19.12 | 37. 69 | -14. 67 | | 2025-6-24 | 18. 85 | 29.77 | -12. 35 | | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | 2025-6-30 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 06 月 30 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250630 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 6 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.59%，收报 3444.43 点；深证成指涨 0.83%，收报 10465.12 点；科创 50 涨 1.54%，收报 1003.41 点；创业板指涨 1.35%，收报 2153.01 点。总体上，全天个股涨多跌 少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 4054 只个股上涨，1126 只个股下跌，237 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 14869 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 542.44 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业除非银金融、银行、交通运输等三个行业 下跌外，其余全部上涨，国防军工、传媒、通信、电子、纺织服饰、电力设 备等行业领涨。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为军工信息化、CRO、航母、BC 电池、 光刻机、大飞机、军民融合、十 ...

策略研究 / 2025.06.30 全球资本流向非美,国内杠杆资金加快扩张 方奕(分析师) 021-38676666 -投资者微观行为洞察手册 · 6月第 3 期 登记编与 S0880520120005 本报告导读: 郭胤含(分析师) 021-38676666 本期市场交易热度大幅抬升,融资资金大幅流入,ETF与外资资金转为流出,偏股 基金新发规模边际下降。南下资金流入持续抬升。 合记编与 S0880524100001 投资要点: 田开轩(分析师) 市场定价状态:市场整体交易热度快速抬升,赚钱效应明显。1)市 0 场情绪(上升):本期国泰海通资金流入强度指数整体持续上升, 食记编与 S0880524080006 市场交易热度底部抬升,全 A 日均成交额从 1.2 万亿上升至 1.5 万 亿,上证指数换手率分位数上升至85%,科创板换手率分位数上升 至 40%。日均涨停家数上升至 71 家,最大连板数为 6个,封板率上 升至 77.2%,龙虎榜上榜家数降至 61 家。2）赚钱效应(上升): 行业交易集中度回升,本期行业换手率历史分位数处于 90%以上的 行业有 7个,环比增加5个,其中换手率分位数超 95%的行 ...