Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the ongoing US-Iran conflict on global oil prices and China's preparedness for potential oil crises, highlighting China's strategic oil reserves and alternative energy technologies as key factors in mitigating risks associated with oil dependency [3][5][10]. Group 1: Impact of US-Iran Conflict on Oil Prices - The conflict has escalated to target energy facilities, with significant attacks on oil infrastructure, leading to a surge in international oil prices, with Oman crude exceeding $160 per barrel [4][5]. - Analysts predict that continued destruction of Middle Eastern oil facilities could result in a loss of 40% of global oil production capacity, potentially triggering a third oil crisis [5][6]. Group 2: China's Preparedness for Oil Crises - Despite a high dependency on foreign oil (over 70%), China appears unaffected by the oil crisis due to extensive preparations made over the years [10][11]. - China's strategic oil reserve program, initiated in 2004, has evolved to include underground storage facilities, which are more secure and efficient than surface tanks [15][19][30]. Group 3: Underground Oil Storage Technology - China employs advanced underground storage techniques, utilizing water-sealed technology to prevent oil leakage and ensure safety [25][27]. - The country has also developed a network of underground salt cavern storage, which is cost-effective and allows for rapid oil reserve turnover [28][30]. Group 4: Coal-to-Oil Technology - China has developed coal-to-oil technology, which allows for the conversion of coal into high-quality synthetic fuels, providing an alternative to crude oil [40][48]. - The successful development of catalysts for this process has positioned China as a leader in coal-to-oil technology, enabling the production of clean fuels suitable for military and industrial use [46][49]. Group 5: Fertilizer Production and Food Security - China has advanced coal-based fertilizer production technologies, ensuring a stable supply of nitrogen fertilizers, which are critical for agriculture [56][62]. - This capability positions China to maintain food security and potentially control global fertilizer supply during oil crises, impacting global food production significantly [64][66]. Group 6: Diversified Oil Import Sources - China has diversified its oil import sources, limiting any single country's contribution to 15-20% of total imports, thereby reducing vulnerability to supply disruptions [82][86]. - The country has established energy cooperation projects with multiple oil-producing nations, ensuring a stable supply chain even during geopolitical tensions [89][91]. Group 7: Domestic Oil Production and New Energy - China maintains a domestic oil production level of over 200 million tons annually, which can sustain essential services even if global oil trade ceases [97][98]. - The development of shale oil technology and a shift towards renewable energy sources further reduce China's reliance on imported oil, positioning it for energy independence [100][102]. Group 8: Economic Implications of Oil Price Increases - While the oil crisis may lead to increased costs for consumers, China's industrial base is less likely to suffer catastrophic disruptions compared to smaller nations [120][124]. - The crisis may accelerate the transition to electric vehicles, further decreasing oil demand and enhancing China's energy autonomy [108][113].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the market may be overly optimistic about the quick resolution of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, indicating a significant expectation gap regarding the duration of the conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which directly impacts oil prices and subsequently affects global asset prices [1][10]. - The current phase of the US-Israel-Iran conflict has transitioned from pure battlefield engagement to a "fighting while negotiating" scenario, creating a precarious political balance that complicates investment decisions [1][12]. Group 2 - The report introduces two volatility indicators, OVX and VIX, as essential tools for institutional investors to navigate the current geopolitical uncertainties. OVX measures the market's expectation of oil price volatility, while VIX gauges the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index, representing economic recession risks [2][14]. - A rapid increase in OVX coupled with a lagging VIX suggests that risks are still concentrated in the energy sector and have not yet fully transmitted to global macro credit risks or earnings expectations. A simultaneous upward movement in both indicators may signal a liquidity crisis or global economic recession triggered by geopolitical risks [2][14]. Group 3 - The investment strategy is categorized into four quadrants based on the relationship between OVX and VIX, providing tailored recommendations for different market conditions: 1. High OVX and fluctuating VIX suggest a local energy crisis, recommending an overweight in traditional energy and energy alternatives, particularly in sectors like power equipment and coal [3][26]. 2. High OVX and rapidly rising VIX indicate systemic recession or liquidity risks, prioritizing defensive strategies [3][26]. 3. A peak and decline in OVX with a downward-trending VIX suggest a transition to technology growth investments, recommending sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and AI-related themes [3][26]. 4. A declining OVX with an unusually high VIX indicates the end of geopolitical tensions, but the impact of high oil prices on the economy persists, suggesting a shift towards high-dividend and low-volatility investments [3][26].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Views Coke - The trading weight of the energy substitution logic increases, and the fundamentals have an insignificant impact on the futures price. In the short term, the price fluctuates greatly, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium to long term, the price is expected to be moderately strong. The operating range of the coke index is expected to be between 1790 - 1950. Key events to watch include coke price increases/decreases, hot metal production, and coke enterprise inventories [6]. - The escalation of the Middle - East conflict may lead to a further increase in energy prices. Currently, coke is mainly driven by the energy substitution and oil - coal ratio logics, with a relatively high influence weight, while the weight of its own fundamentals decreases. If the global crude oil supply - demand tightens further, the international coal demand will increase, driving up international coal prices, and coke prices will follow the rise of coking coal prices. Some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of price increases last Friday, and the implementation needs to be monitored. The prices of coking by - products have risen, improving the profits of coke enterprises and increasing coke production. Steel mills in Hebei have resumed production, increasing hot metal production. Rising energy prices stimulate downstream restocking, and the sustainability of restocking needs to be monitored. Both supply and demand of coke have increased, and the fundamentals have an insignificant impact on the futures price [7]. Coking Coal - The trading weight of the energy substitution logic increases, and the fundamentals have an insignificant impact on the futures price. In the medium to long term, the price is expected to be moderately strong. The near - month contracts face delivery pressure, and the 05 contract is gradually being rolled over to the 09 contract. Risk control is necessary. The operating range of the coking coal index is expected to be between 1250 - 1330 - 1400. Key events to watch include domestic coal mine production, Mongolian coal port inventories, and coal mine inventories [9]. - The escalation of the Middle - East conflict may lead to a further increase in energy prices. Currently, coking coal is mainly driven by the energy substitution and oil - coal ratio logics, with a relatively high influence weight, while the weight of its own fundamentals decreases. If the global crude oil supply - demand tightens further, the international coal demand will increase, driving up international coal prices, and coking coal prices will follow the rise. Domestic coal mine supply has increased month - on - month, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level, resulting in a relatively sufficient supply of coking coal. In the short term, coke production has increased. In the medium to long term, hot metal production is expected to recover, increasing coke demand, which will support coking coal demand to some extent. Rising energy prices stimulate downstream restocking, which may support spot and futures prices. Currently, Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level, and port inventories are also high, which may bring certain delivery pressure and have a negative impact on near - month contracts [10]. Summary by Directory Coke Price and Production - As of March 20, the ex - warehouse price of Grade - 1 coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton. Coke prices remained stable, while coking coal prices in the mainstream market showed a strong trend [13]. - Affected by the rising prices of chemical products, the profits of coke enterprises have increased, and the coke production of both coke enterprises and steel mills has slightly rebounded. As of March 20, the daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants was 64.24 tons (+0.34), the daily average coke production of 247 steel mill coking plants was 47.31 tons (+0.31), and the total coke production of all - sample coke enterprises and 247 steel mills was 111.55 tons (+0.65) [19]. Coke Demand and Inventory - Steel mills in Hebei have resumed production, and hot metal production has increased significantly. As of March 20, the daily average hot metal production was 228.15 tons (+6.95); the weekly total production of five major steel products was 839.82 tons (+18.85); the profitability rate of steel mills was 42.42% (+1.29); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.53% (+2.61); and the blast furnace operating rate was 79.78% (+1.44) [27]. - Rising energy prices have stimulated downstream restocking. As of March 20, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 94.23 tons (-6.2); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 688.18 tons (+0.63); the total inventory of four major ports was 199.13 tons (+2.75); and the total coke inventory was 981.54 tons (-2.82). The inventory available days of 247 steel mills was 12.74 days (-0.43) [31][34]. Coke Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the warehouse - receipt price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1616 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract was - 125, a week - on - week decrease of 3; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 75, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated last week. Therefore, the basis and spread weakened slightly. The current basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly because the market is more pessimistic about the spot supply - demand pattern this year than in previous years, and the spot price is under significant pressure [38]. Coking Coal Supply and Inventory - The capacity utilization rate of coal mines has slightly rebounded. With the rise of coking coal spot prices and international energy prices, domestic coal mine supply is expected to further increase. As of March 20, the daily average production of raw coal from 523 sample mines was 196.86 tons (+3.25), and the operating rate was 88.59% (+1.43); the daily average production of 314 sample coal washing plants was 24.31 tons (+1.23), and the operating rate was 33.01% (+2.01) [44]. - Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level. Rising international energy prices have led to an expectation of rising coal prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has rebounded. Last week, coke enterprises restocked significantly, and coal mine inventories decreased significantly. As of March 20, the total port inventory was 264.95 tons (-2.6); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.93 tons (-3.7); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1005.03 tons (+35.6); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 254.09 tons (-23.59); and the total coking coal inventory was 2298 tons (+5.71). The available days of coking coal inventory for 230 independent coking plants was 12.55 days (+0.41); the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises was 12.3 days (-0.14) [54]. Coking Coal Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1213 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract was 42, a week - on - week increase of 53; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 116, a week - on - week decrease of 17.5. The spot price showed a strong trend, and the futures price fluctuated last week. The far - month contract increased more than the near - month contract. Therefore, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The future driving directions of the basis and spread mainly depend on energy prices and supply - side conditions [58].

中东争端持续继续给予煤炭能源替 代溢价，建议短线操作或观望 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 双焦周报 2026/03/28 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 持仓及品种比价 01 周度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 图1： 焦煤加权指数价格走势（元/吨，日线） 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 上周，焦煤盘面价格周初大幅冲高后高位震荡，周度涨幅64元/吨或+5.29%（针对加权指数，下同）。驱动方面，主要来自于中东争端持续 之下原油在高位徘徊所带动的煤炭能源替代属性估值溢价。技术形态角度，焦煤盘面价格走势中性偏强，后续继续关注下方1200元/吨-1250 元/吨附近支撑，上方关注1350元/吨附近压力位置，同时注意日内大幅波动。 图2： 焦炭加权指数价格走势（元/吨，日线） 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 上周，焦炭价格在周初跟随焦煤大幅上探后震荡回落，周度涨幅24.5元/吨或+1.39%。驱动方面，仍是主要跟随成本端焦煤价格波动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has announced the 2026 central fiscal budget, highlighting an increase in the profit remittance ratio from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and adjustments in various tax revenues, indicating a strategic shift in fiscal policy aimed at enhancing government revenue [1][2][3]. Group 1: Central State-Owned Capital Operating Budget - The 2026 budget for central state-owned capital operating income is set at 371.632 billion yuan, with profit income at 352.233 billion yuan [2]. - The profit remittance ratio for wholly state-owned enterprises (non-financial) has been categorized into four types, with the highest remittance ratio at 35%, up from 25% in 2025 [1][2]. - The first category includes resource-based enterprises like tobacco, oil, electricity, and telecommunications, with a remittance of 270.06 billion yuan, down 5.4% [2]. - The second category consists of general competitive enterprises, with a remittance of 63.317 billion yuan, down 7.8% [2]. - The third category includes military and certain state-owned enterprises, with a remittance of 17.856 billion yuan, down 9.8% [2]. - Policy-based enterprises are exempt from remittance, and financial enterprises are expected to contribute 1 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: General Public Budget Revenue - The 2026 general public budget revenue is projected to grow by 1.8% compared to 2025 [5]. - Major tax categories show growth: domestic VAT by 3.7%, domestic consumption tax by 0.9%, corporate income tax by 1.1%, and personal income tax by 2.4% [5]. - The securities transaction stamp duty is expected to increase by 0.7%, based on anticipated stock market trading volumes [5]. - The vehicle purchase tax is projected to rise by 22.2%, influenced by expected growth in automobile sales and the resumption of reduced tax rates for new energy vehicles [5]. - Non-tax revenue from confiscated income is expected to decline by 16.8%, reflecting anticipated enforcement outcomes [5]. Group 3: Transfer Payments to Local Governments - The central transfer payment budget to local governments for 2026 is set at 1.0415 trillion yuan, a 2.2% increase from 2025 [6]. - General transfer payments are budgeted at 947.792 billion yuan, increasing by 2.5% [6]. - The budget for equitable transfer payments is 283.4 billion yuan, up 3.7%, aimed at enhancing local fiscal capacity [6]. - Funding for preschool education is expected to rise by 37.8% due to new policies implemented from the 2025 autumn semester [6]. - Childcare subsidy funding is projected to increase by 10.6% based on estimated applications [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a multi-factor resonance leading to sustained price increases, driven by geopolitical tensions, rising oil and gas transportation costs, and a resilient demand for thermal coal [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of coal as a bottom-line guarantee in the current energy landscape, suggesting that coal stocks are worth increasing positions in [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 2,347.914 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 2,238.858 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - Recent trends indicate that the price of thermal coal has risen, with the average price at the Qinhuangdao port reaching 766 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 26 yuan/ton [8]. - The report outlines a price expectation trajectory for coal, forecasting potential increases to 800-850 yuan/ton due to various market pressures [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.606 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.96% [8]. - Demand for thermal coal has also increased, with a reported daily consumption of 5.189 million tons across 25 provinces, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.19% [8]. 4. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies in the coal sector are highlighted, with specific attention to their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating strong investment potential [5][13]. - The report tracks dividend policies and growth prospects for major coal companies, emphasizing their stable earnings and potential for future growth [13][14].

Market Overview - The A-share market indices experienced a significant narrowing of declines this week, indicating a shift in market sentiment from panic to recovery, with a gradual rebalancing of capital styles [2][3][7] - Despite continued net outflows of main funds, a marginal improvement trend has begun to emerge, suggesting the market is in a critical window of "weak recovery + rebalancing" [2][3] Index Performance - Major A-share indices continued their adjustment but showed a notable reduction in declines compared to the previous week, transitioning from a rapid drop phase to a weak oscillation recovery phase [3][7] - Small-cap stocks experienced a technical rebound after emotional clearance, while previously resilient growth sectors, represented by the ChiNext, turned into the leading decliners, highlighting significant style rotation [3][7] Sector Rotation - The market is dominated by a "defensive + price increase" theme, with materials, utilities, and healthcare sectors rising approximately 2.5%, reflecting a preference for assets with "resource attributes + stable cash flow" [10][3] - Conversely, sectors such as information technology, finance, and certain consumer segments faced pressure, indicating that high valuation and high beta assets are still undergoing valuation digestion [10][3] Trading Volume - A-shares exhibited a "volume contraction" characteristic this week, with weekly trading volume decreasing from 11.06 trillion yuan to 10.56 trillion yuan, indicating a continued decline in trading enthusiasm [23][25] - Daily trading amounts fell from approximately 2.45 trillion yuan at the beginning of the week to 1.86 trillion yuan by Friday, with the market turnover rate dropping from 4.98% to 3.66% [23][25] Fund Flow - Main funds exhibited a "first out, then in" pattern, with a net outflow of 795 billion yuan on Monday due to external geopolitical shocks, followed by a net inflow of 150 billion yuan on Wednesday, marking a key turning point for the week [32][36] - By Friday, main funds continued to flow in with a net inflow of 82.58 billion yuan, indicating a shift from broad withdrawal to structural positioning [32][36] Market Sentiment - The market displayed a typical "V-shaped recovery" this week, with the number of stocks hitting the daily limit down reaching 145 on Monday, but quickly rebounding with a significant number of stocks hitting the limit up in subsequent days [41][46] - Margin financing balances have shown a clear downward trend, reflecting a cautious shift in sentiment, although a slight recovery was observed in the latter part of the week [42][46] Upcoming Focus - Attention will be on policy, macro data, and external disturbances, as the upcoming quarter is a crucial window for assessing economic recovery [50][51] - The market will also face the unlocking of restricted shares for 26 companies next week, which may exert pressure on stock prices [51][53]

Group 1 - The stock of China Coal Energy has been in a volatile trading range over the past five days, underperforming both the market and the industry average [1] - The main funds have shown a net outflow, with a net proportion significantly lower than the market average, particularly on March 27 [1] - The stock has a market attention level that is considered average, with overall sentiment being neutral and a low frequency of institutional research [1] Group 2 - The fund holding ratio for China Coal Energy is at 0.44%, with 27 institutions providing earnings forecasts, resulting in a composite target price of 17.76 yuan [1] - The recent quarterly report indicates a -0.19% change in the holding ratio of actively managed equity funds, while the stock price increased by 9.51% during the same period [1] - The company is categorized as a leading player in the industry, exhibiting good profitability and growth capabilities, but average operational and debt repayment abilities [1] Group 3 - The current valuation of China Coal Energy is at a historical high, positioned at a moderate level within the industry [1] - The trailing twelve months (TTM) price-to-earnings ratio is 13.26, which is below the industry median and ranks at the 97.93 percentile over the past five years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has announced the 2026 central fiscal budget, highlighting an increase in the profit remittance ratio from state-owned enterprises and adjustments in various tax revenues [1][2][5]. Group 1: Central State-Owned Capital Operating Budget - The 2026 budget for central state-owned capital operating income is set at 371.632 billion yuan, with profit income at 352.233 billion yuan [4]. - The profit remittance ratio for non-financial state-owned enterprises is categorized into four types, with the highest rate at 35%, up from 25% in 2025 [2][5]. - The first category includes tobacco and resource-based enterprises, with a remittance of 270.06 billion yuan, down 5.4% [4]. - The second category consists of general competitive enterprises, with a remittance of 63.317 billion yuan, down 7.8% [4]. - The third category includes military and certain state-owned enterprises, with a remittance of 17.856 billion yuan, down 9.8% [4]. - Policy-based enterprises are exempt from remittance, and financial enterprises are expected to contribute 1 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: General Public Budget Revenue - The 2026 general public budget revenue is projected to grow by 1.8% compared to 2025 [7]. - Major tax categories show growth: domestic VAT by 3.7%, domestic consumption tax by 0.9%, corporate income tax by 1.1%, and personal income tax by 2.4% [7]. - The securities transaction stamp duty is expected to increase by 0.7%, while the vehicle purchase tax is projected to rise by 22.2% due to anticipated growth in car sales [7]. - Non-tax revenue from confiscated income is expected to decline by 16.8%, and income from the paid use of state resources is projected to drop by 46.3% [7]. Group 3: Transfer Payments to Local Governments - The central transfer payment budget to local governments for 2026 is set at 10.415 trillion yuan, a 2.2% increase from 2025 [9]. - General transfer payments are budgeted at 9.478 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% increase [9]. - The equitable transfer payment budget is projected to grow by 3.7% to 2.834 trillion yuan, aimed at enhancing local fiscal capacity [10]. - Funding for early childhood education is expected to increase by 37.8% due to new policies, while subsidies for energy-saving and emission-reduction will decrease by 63.8% as previous funds are settled [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant pullback since March 12, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index declining by approximately 5.91% and 5.94% respectively by March 26. Despite the downturn, there is a notable shift in fund allocation, with a trend towards risk aversion and a reallocation of assets into safer investments like money market and bond ETFs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall market ETF shares decreased by about 4 billion units, a decline of approximately 0.12%, with stock ETFs facing a net redemption of 11.9 billion units. Conversely, money market ETFs saw a net inflow of 2.2 billion units, and passive index bond ETFs increased by 300 million units, indicating a clear trend towards risk aversion [3]. - Over 200 ETFs experienced net subscriptions during the same period, highlighting a selective investment strategy amidst the broader market decline [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Four main areas have emerged as focal points for fund inflows: 1. **Bond ETFs**: These are favored for their defensive characteristics, with short-term bond ETFs receiving a net inflow of 11.261 billion yuan, leading the pack [3]. 2. **Broad-based Indices**: Core assets like the CSI 300 and SSE Composite Index ETFs saw net inflows of 9.952 billion yuan and 4.699 billion yuan respectively, indicating continued confidence in large-cap stocks [4]. 3. **Sector and Theme Investments**: A "barbell" strategy is evident, with funds flowing into both growth sectors like new energy batteries (+2.145 billion yuan) and defensive high-dividend strategies like the CSI Dividend Index (+2.056 billion yuan) [6]. 4. **QDII Funds**: International stock ETFs, particularly those linked to Chinese technology assets, saw a net subscription of 6.8 billion units, reflecting long-term confidence in Chinese core tech assets [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market pullback is characterized by a focus on safety, low valuations, and certainty. Key asset categories attracting bottom-fishing capital include high-dividend defensive sectors, low-priced energy and cyclical assets, and reasonably valued growth leaders like semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals [9][10]. - The market is expected to remain in a phase of oscillation, with structural opportunities emerging as the focus shifts from speculative trading to a balance of undervalued value and high-quality growth [10].