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博时宏观观点:风险偏好上行,春季躁动或可期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 08:16
海外方面,美国Q3 GDP超预期但12月PMI显示增长边际走弱,未来一段时间,美联储仍在宽松周期 中,相对友好的金融条件能对美国增长的薄弱环节起到一定的托底作用,防止滑向衰退,但回暖幅度可 能有限。 国内方面,12月制造业PMI大超预期,自年中以来重新回到景气度扩张区间,服务业和建筑业PMI亦回 升,或受外需韧性及年末重大项目推进速度加快提振,供需两端分项指标均有所上行。 市场策略方面,债券方面,上周供给担忧再度加大叠加跨年资金面趋紧,债市小幅调整,短端调整幅度 大于长端。2026年1月政府债计划发行规模明显高于去年1月,叠加银行信贷冲开门红,1月银行资金或 较为紧张,债市承接力量有限,关注央行投放资金对冲情况。节前公募赎回新规落地,较征求意见稿更 为温和,债市赎回压力有所改善,但趋势性机会仍需等待货币政策明确宽松或配置力量回归。 A股方面,中美关系缓和、人民币持续升值、稳增长政策积极发力下宏观环境利好A股市场,春季躁动 或可期。结构上,可以考虑关注拥挤度处于低位且具备产业催化的科技成长行情。 港股方面,人民币升值有助于港股流动性环境改善,近期国内增长边际回暖亦有利于港股beta上行。 原油方面,从全球经济基 ...
美股在节日中回调,原油价格或短期利好
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 08:16
Macroeconomic Indicators - The FHFA house price index in the US increased by 0.4% month-on-month in October, surpassing the expected 0.1% and the previous value of -0.1% [1][10] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped significantly to 199,000 for the week ending December 20, falling below 200,000 and approaching historical lows, compared to the previous value of 215,000 and an expectation of 218,000 [1][10] - The US refinery utilization rate slightly increased to 94.7% for the week ending December 26, up from 94.6% the previous week [1][10] - The US crude steel production continued to decline year-on-year, with a decrease of 1.8% compared to a previous decline of 3.6% [1][10] Major Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.11% over the week from December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 1.71% and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 1.03% [2][12] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, three sectors saw gains, with the S&P 500 Energy sector leading with a rise of 3.29%, while the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector lagged with a decline of 3.17% [2][12] Investment Products - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is designed to track the US S&P 500 Index, providing a low-cost investment tool for domestic investors to capture growth in US stocks [4][13] - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a significant portion (57.87%) of its composition in the information technology sector, along with exposure to consumer services, consumer goods, and healthcare [4][13]
中信保诚基金完成首笔债券利差交易 策略工具箱再升级
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 08:16
日前,中信保诚基金管理有限公司通过全国银行间同业拆借中心的本币交易平台,成功完成了首笔债券 利差交易。此举标志着公司在债券交易策略的实践与应用上取得了实质性进展,进一步丰富了其固定收 益投资工具箱。 责任编辑:郭栩彤 日前,中信保诚基金管理有限公司通过全国银行间同业拆借中心的本币交易平台,成功完成了首笔债券 利差交易。此举标志着公司在债券交易策略的实践与应用上取得了实质性进展,进一步丰富了其固定收 益投资工具箱。 近日,在公司交易部与固定收益部的通力协作下,与工商银行、国金证券等市场机构顺利达成两笔利差 交易。本次交易的顺利完成,体现了公司对银行间市场创新工具的快速响应与高效执行能力。 债券利差交易是银行间市场重要的交易机制创新。该功能支持投资者直接针对两只债券的利差进行报 价,当报价匹配后,系统将自动拆分为两笔方向相反的单券交易,并确保同时成交。这一设计不仅实现 了交易意图的精准执行,且不改变现有结算流程,有效提升了策略落地的效率与可靠性。目前,该业务 已覆盖二十余个利差类型、三十余个标准利差产品,为实施跨期限、跨品种及新老券置换等多种策略提 供了灵活且高效的平台。 自该业务推出以来,市场参与度持续提升。截 ...
东吴基金赵梅玲在管2产品齐入年度跌幅榜TOP30,东吴进取策略A、东吴行业轮动A近三年跑输基准超40%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 08:10
专题:2025基金年终大盘点:冠军基年内狂飙233%,主动权益重获主导,全行业规模逼近36万亿新高 2025年以来,A股市场整体呈现上行态势,带动主动权益类基金业绩普遍回暖。截至去年12月31日,从 全市场维度观察,尽管多数主动权益类基金录得正收益,但仍有一定数量的产品表现疲弱。 据统计,近一年有业绩记录的4711只主动权益类基金中,正收益产品达4494只,负收益为217只;若将 周期拉长至近三年,在有业绩的3792只基金中,收益为负的数量增至924只,正收益为2868只。 值得注意的是,全市场跌幅排名前三十的主动权益类基金,其年内回报率均低于-9.75%,其中多只产品 亏损超过15%,华富医疗创新A更以-27.13%的回报位居跌幅榜首,浦银安盛医疗创新A、鑫元消费甄选 A紧随其后。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 2025年回报 | 基金规模 | 基金经理 | 基金管理人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (KZ) | | | | 1 | 025017.OF | 华富医疗创新A | -27.13 | 0.60 | ...
外资建议高配中国股票,A500ETF易方达(159361)等产品受市场关注,近一月“吸金”超百亿元
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-07 08:06
Wind数据显示,A500ETF易方达(159361)近一个月净流入超100亿元,最新规模达354亿元、创成立 以来新高,产品流动性较好且管理费率仅为0.15%/年,为投资者一键配置A股核心资产提供了便捷工 具。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) 高盛最新宏观报告称,预计2026年中国实际GDP增速高于市场共识预测,建议高配A股和港股,预计 2026年和2027年中国股市将每年上涨15%~20%。中国股市当前估值相比全球同业存在显著折价,对于 国内外投资者而言,其显著的分散化配置价值会鼓励更多资本流入市场。 国信证券指出,中证A500指数作为中国核心资产代表,兼顾传统及新兴产业,具备估值、盈利、分红 等相对优势,当下对其的资金配置需求有望提高。 1月7日午后,市场短暂跳水后迅速拉升,承接力量强劲。盘面上,煤炭、光刻机、存储芯片、稀土等板 块涨幅居前。截至14:24,中证A500指数微跌0.02%,A500ETF易方达(159361)盘中成交额近70亿 元。 ...
6只基金齐入主动权益类跌幅榜前30,广发王明旭“一拖多”模式遭遇滑铁卢,在管8只仅1只收益为正
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 08:04
Core Insights - The A-share market has shown an upward trend since 2025, leading to a general recovery in the performance of actively managed equity funds, with the total industry scale approaching a new high of 36 trillion yuan [1][14] - Among 4,711 actively managed equity funds with performance records, 4,494 reported positive returns, while 217 had negative returns over the past year [1][14] - Notably, the worst-performing funds had annual returns below -9.75%, with several losing over 15%, including Huafu Medical Innovation A at -27.13% [1][14] Fund Performance - The top three worst-performing funds included: - Huafu Medical Innovation A: -27.13% return, 0.60 billion yuan in size [2][15] -浦银安盛医疗创新A: -20.29% return, 0.16 billion yuan in size [2][15] - 鑫元消费甄选A: -19.65% return, 0.29 billion yuan in size [2][15] - Among the top 30 funds with the largest declines, six were managed by GF Fund under manager Wang Mingxu [1][14] Manager Performance - Wang Mingxu's managed funds have shown a significant decline in scale, dropping from a peak of 30.65 billion yuan in Q2 2021 to 8.26 billion yuan by Q4 2025, with six of his eight funds in the top 30 worst performers [4][17] - The funds managed by Wang exhibit a high degree of similarity in their holdings, leading to collective underperformance [10][23] Investment Strategy - Wang's flagship fund, GF Domestic Demand Growth A, experienced a significant style shift in 2025 but failed to improve performance, ending the year with a -16.31% return [5][18] - The fund's portfolio included heavyweights in the liquor, real estate, banking, and brokerage sectors, but the performance of these stocks was weak, with many declining over 10% [21][23] - Despite attempts to diversify into technology and manufacturing stocks, the overall results remained disappointing, indicating a mismatch between investment strategy and market conditions [13][23]
成立不足三年三度换帅,鑫元消费甄选A去年跌近20%跻身跌幅前三,成立以来已亏49.37%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 08:04
专题:2025基金年终大盘点:冠军基年内狂飙233%,主动权益重获主导,全行业规模逼近36万亿新高 2025年以来,A股市场整体呈现上行态势,带动主动权益类基金业绩普遍回暖。截至去年12月31日,从 全市场维度观察,尽管多数主动权益类基金录得正收益,但仍有一定数量的产品表现疲弱。 据统计,近一年有业绩记录的4711只主动权益类基金中,正收益产品达4494只,负收益为217只;若将 周期拉长至近三年,在有业绩的3792只基金中,收益为负的数量增至924只,正收益为2868只。 值得注意的是,在年度回报表现最弱的区间内,全市场跌幅排名前三十的主动权益类基金,其年内回报 率均低于-9.75%,其中多只产品亏损超过15%,华富医疗创新A更以-27.13%的回报位居跌幅榜首,浦银 安盛医疗创新A、鑫元消费融通A紧随其后。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 2025年回报 | 基金规模 | 基金经理 | 基金管理人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (KZ) | | | | 1 | 025017.OF | 华富医疗创新A | - ...
中信建投4产品齐入近三年跌幅榜前十,中信建投低碳成长A跌52%垫底,周紫光所管三产品近三年跌超46%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 08:04
Core Insights - The A-share market in 2025 saw a general upward trend, with active equity funds experiencing a net value recovery, although some products continued to perform poorly over the past three years [1][11] - Among the 3,792 active equity funds with performance data over the last three years, 924 funds reported negative returns, accounting for nearly one-quarter of the total [1][11] Fund Performance Overview - The top ten funds with the largest declines over the past three years included four from CITIC Securities, with the worst performer being CITIC Securities Low Carbon Growth A, which recorded a return of -51.87%, lagging its benchmark by over 72 percentage points [3][13] - Other notable underperformers included CITIC Securities Smart IoT A at -51.65%, CITIC Securities Technology Theme 6-Month Holding A at -47.45%, and CITIC Securities Smart Living A at -46.73% [3][13] 2025 Annual Returns - In 2025, CITIC Securities Smart Living A also recorded a return of -16.33%, placing it among the top ten worst-performing active equity funds for the year [3][13] - The top ten funds with the worst returns in 2025 included several from various fund management companies, with CITIC Securities Smart Living A being one of them [4][15] Fund Manager Profile - Zhou Ziguang, a fund manager at CITIC Securities, has extensive experience in the securities industry and manages several funds focused on themes such as low carbon, technology, and IoT [5][16] - The funds managed by Zhou Ziguang have shown a consistent trend of underperformance over the past three years, despite some achieving positive returns since inception [5][16] Sector Allocation and Performance - The funds from CITIC Securities are heavily concentrated in sectors like renewable energy and power equipment, which have faced significant declines in stock prices recently, negatively impacting fund net values [7][17] - For instance, CITIC Securities Low Carbon Growth A's top three holdings have seen declines between 17% and 28% over the past three months, contributing to the fund's poor performance [7][17] Strategic Challenges - The performance of CITIC Securities' funds highlights potential strategic and risk management challenges within certain thematic investment areas [10][20] - The ability to enhance flexibility in sector allocation and improve stock selection accuracy will be crucial for these funds to recover from their current low performance [10][20]
公募销售新规对不同公募产品的影响——《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》点评
申万宏源金工· 2026-01-07 08:01
Core Viewpoint - The new regulations for public fund sales, effective from January 1, 2026, aim to reduce investment costs for investors and standardize the sales market for public funds, thereby protecting investors' rights [1] Group 1: Impact on Different Public Fund Products - The new regulations categorize sales fees into four types based on product type, holder type, and sales channel, leading to a significant reduction in subscription fees for various fund types [2] - Subscription fee rates have been notably decreased, with the maximum rate for actively managed equity funds set at 0.8%, mixed funds at 0.5%, and bond/index funds at 0.3% [2][7] - Redemption fees are standardized across all shares, with specific exemptions for personal investors holding bond funds for over 7 days, which may increase costs for short-term strategies [3] - Sales service fees are capped at 0.4% for equity and mixed funds, 0.2% for bond and index funds, and 0.15% for money market funds, with no fees for funds held over one year [4][11] Group 2: Detailed Changes in Sales Fees - Subscription fees have been significantly reduced from previous regulations, with maximum rates now clearly defined for different fund types [7][8] - Redemption fee structures have been simplified to encourage long-term holding, with all fees now counted towards fund assets [9][10] - Sales service fees are now clearly defined and lower than previous maximums, promoting long-term investment [11][12] - Customer maintenance fees are differentiated based on investor type, with lower rates for institutional investors in non-equity funds [13][14] Group 3: Impact on Bond Funds - The new regulations provide more flexibility for redemption fees, particularly benefiting personal investors and potentially challenging institutional pure bond funds [15] - The majority of bond fund holders are institutions, with 82.97% of the market share, indicating a significant impact on institutional strategies [16] - The focus of institutional investors may shift towards bond ETFs and money market funds for liquidity management, while seeking stable returns from long-term bond funds [22][24]
还给基民500亿,机构的好日子结束了
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 07:58
公募基金在一场不太体面的战斗里告别了2025年。 去年 12 月末的最后几个交易日,一则围绕中证 A500ETF 的花边传闻,在水面之下传得有声有色:一边 传的是"买量怪"力争让自家的 A500 坐稳季末规模的头把交椅,一边传的是"举报怪"打不赢又输不起, 转头选择了告老师。 至今,没有任何组织宣布对这起传闻负责,但 A500ETF 确实在没有太多散户消费的迹象下,闷声在 12 月上了一个台阶,全部 A500ETF 产品的总规模单月暴涨了 1000 多亿。 | | | 2025 年 12月1日 A500ETF 战况 | | | 2025 年 12 月 31 日 A500ETF 战况 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易所 | 排名 | 其金公司 | A500规模 | 排名 | 基金公司 A500规模 | 变动 | | | 1 | 华泰柏瑞 | 259 亿 | 1 | 华泰柏瑞 | 494 亿 + 235 亿 | | 上海交易所 | 2 | 华夏基金 | 204 亿 | 2 | 华夏基金 | 420 亿 + 216 亿 | | | 3 | 广发 ...