1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [9] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [10] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating, with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [16] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in the long - term, with a short - term rebound [18] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Overall, most commodities are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing supply pressures and others influenced by seasonal factors and policy changes. For example, hogs are expected to face increasing supply pressure in the second half of the year, while oils and fats may return to range - bound trading [12][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: SPPOMA data shows that from June 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% month - on - month, and from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4% month - on - month. Shipping agencies expect Malaysian palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 to increase by 10% - 17% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking and favorable weather in the US soybean growing areas, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestically, oils and fats trended weakly. The EPA proposal's bullish sentiment may have been released, and there are still uncertainties. US soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean imports are large, with rising soybean oil inventories. Malaysian palm oil production growth in June is limited, and the export outlook is optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly declining [9]. - **Outlook**: The bullish impact of the EPA's biodiesel proposal may have been priced in. Given the good growth of US soybeans, normal weather, and the palm oil production season, oils and fats are likely to return to range - bound trading, with increased downward pressure recently [9]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 23, 2025, the average import soybean crushing profit in China was 76.65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.87 yuan/ton or 24.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 155.24 yuan/ton or 288.98% [10]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina's soybean production forecast by 3 million tons. The bullish sentiment from crude oil and the EPA has been released. US soybean planting and emergence are going well, with normal to slightly above - normal precipitation expected in the next two weeks. Freight costs are rising, and South American soybean premiums are increasing. Domestically, trading sentiment has declined, and the basis in East China has weakened. Soybean arrivals will increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventories are seasonally rising, but there is no immediate pressure. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, but there may be a supply shortage in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to bullish factors and lower - than - expected good - quality rates. Domestically, soybean meal supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to have a short - term correction. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels [10]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The domestic average corn price is 2422 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. In North China, some deep - processing enterprises lowered their purchase prices due to increased arrivals, while other regions were stable to strong. Wheat harvesting is over, and traders are selling more corn. Corn feed inventories are decreasing, indicating weak replenishment demand. South Port inventories are temporarily increasing due to weather but are expected to decline. Imported grains are tightening, and inventory reduction is expected in the 24/25 season [11]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price is expected to oscillate, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of import auctions [11]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of Henan's externally - bred hogs was 14.72 yuan/kg, a 1.1% increase from the previous day. The closing price of the active hog futures contract was 13980 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the proportion of large hogs for sale is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium term, based on the increase in new - born piglets from January to May 2025, the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is close to the break - even point. Demand is weak due to high temperatures, and hog weights are decreasing. In June, hog farmers started to reduce inventory, but there is resistance to low prices, and the selling rhythm is inconsistent. In the third quarter, there are expectations for peak consumption seasons. In the long term, the hog price is in a downward cycle [12]. - **Outlook**: As hog farmers reduce inventory and it is the off - season for consumption, the supply - demand balance is loose. If inventory reduction is sufficient, the supply pressure may ease, but the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year [12]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan. The price of domestic whole - milk old rubber was 13950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [13]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices oscillated within a range of about 200 yuan. Although the overall commodity market corrected, rubber prices were supported by raw materials. Most Asian rubber - producing areas are in the rainy season, and raw material prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is limited due to rain and the early stage of tapping. Some tire enterprises' production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased slightly, but the demand outlook is still weak [13]. - **Outlook**: External events are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the duration is uncertain. Rubber prices may maintain a strong - side oscillation due to the low non - standard basis [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber from two major suppliers in Shandong was 11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [15]. - **Logic**: With the decline in oil prices and butadiene prices, the market trended weakly. The market is mainly influenced by crude oil and the chemical sector. The overall operating rate has dropped to the lowest level since May, but inventories have increased slightly, indicating weak downstream demand. Butadiene prices oscillated in a small range last week, with a slight increase in the average weekly price. Domestic production has increased slightly, and port inventories have risen, but downstream buying is cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical conflicts may last at least one week, and the market may be affected. Although the fundamental downward trend remains, the market may oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the number of registered cotton warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 10493. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to increase, and other major producing countries such as India and Brazil also have production growth expectations. The US cotton production depends on the third - quarter weather. The downstream market has entered the off - season, with increasing textile inventories and slower production. Cotton commercial inventories have decreased faster than in previous years, and there are concerns about tight inventories at the end of the season, supporting the basis. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak demand and new - crop production expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate between 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton. There may be opportunities for reverse spreads [16]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 5721 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The sugar market fundamentals have not changed much. The external market has priced in the expected oversupply in the new season, and the prices of domestic and foreign futures have declined. The Brazilian real has strengthened against the US dollar, and strong crude oil prices support the sugar price. Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, with lower inventories than last year. However, there are expectations of concentrated sugar imports. Internationally, Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to increase production in the new season [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected oversupply in the new season, sugar prices are expected to decline. In the short term, there may be a rebound [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the price of Marubeni was 5700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; and the price of Arauco was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Logic**: Pulp futures prices rose significantly yesterday, especially for far - month contracts, mainly due to the suspension of new warehouse receipts for bleached needle - leaf pulp. However, the spot market followed the increase only slightly. Fundamentally, pulp imports remain high, and prices are still falling. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing, with weak procurement demand. The US dollar price is decreasing, and the current price is not attractive for large - scale inventory building. Although the reduction in deliverable varieties may support the futures price, the supply - demand situation is still loose [19]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and the impact of changes in deliverable rules, pulp futures are expected to oscillate. The reasonable valuation range for the 09 contract is 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 760 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong, it is 750 yuan/cubic meter [20]. - **Logic**: The log futures market has provided risk - free arbitrage opportunities, leading to increased purchases by arbitrageurs and stronger reluctance to sell among traders, driving up spot prices. The market is currently focused on the delivery logic. Near - month contracts are stable due to delivery support, while far - month contracts are returning to fundamentals. The trading volume of the 2507 contract is increasing, and the ratio of virtual to real positions is high, leading to increased volatility [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of logs is expected to ease at the end of June or early July. The demand is in the off - season from June to August. Although the spot price is supported by the clearance of old stocks, the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [20].

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 23rd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened higher, then bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow range, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 14,010 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,925 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 756 lots to 161,087 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.41 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Pig Comment - Demand side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish inventory was low. Only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait-and-see state, weakening the support for prices. As the temperature rose, terminal demand weakened, the orders of slaughtering enterprises were average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises remained low. On June 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 144,100 heads, a decrease of 800 heads from the previous day and a decrease of 1,400 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply side: According to the sample data of Yongyi, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month-on-month. Currently, enterprises were reducing the volume and weight of slaughtering in stages, and the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in the slaughter weight [10]. - Overall: The purchasing and storage policy played a role in stabilizing pig prices and boosting confidence. At the same time, the phased reduction in volume and weight of enterprises continued to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs was expected to continue to increase, while the demand entered the seasonal off-season, and the situation of loose supply and demand remained unchanged. In the futures market, the current futures contracts were all at a discount to the spot market. The purchasing and storage policy and the reduction in volume and weight by the breeding side brought a short-term rebound, which was still regarded as a rebound market. In the medium and long term, it was still affected by the off-season demand and loose supply and demand, and was likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the future purchasing and storage policy [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.57% [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.32% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [18]. - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten days [18]. - As of the week of June 19th, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.42% [18]. - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten days. The price difference between 150 kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19th was 0.07 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [18].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shennong Group, is accelerating its capacity expansion in response to the recovering pig market, with a planned investment of 550 million yuan to build three piglet breeding projects, aiming to increase annual output capacity by 870,000 piglets by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Capacity Expansion - Shennong Group announced an investment of 550 million yuan for three piglet breeding projects, which will add an annual output of 870,000 piglets [1][2]. - The projects include a 280 million yuan investment for a breeding base in Wenshan with an output of 450,000 piglets, a 150 million yuan investment for another base in Wenshan with an output of 240,000 piglets, and a 120 million yuan investment for a breeding base in Guangxi with an output of 180,000 piglets [2]. - The investment aligns with the company's strategic focus on the "Yunnan + Guangxi" dual-line strategy, enhancing its competitive advantage in the southwest region [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.97%, and a net profit of 229 million yuan, a staggering increase of 6510.85% [1][5]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 5.584 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 43.51%, with a net profit of 687 million yuan, up 271.16% [5]. - The increase in performance is attributed to both rising pig prices and effective cost control, with the average selling price of pigs increasing from 14.01 yuan/kg in March 2023 to 14.83 yuan/kg in March 2024 [5][6]. Group 3: Cost Control and Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced its breeding costs, with the total cost per kilogram dropping from 16.2 yuan in 2023 to below 14 yuan in 2024, and further down to 12.3 yuan in Q1 2025 [6]. - The company aims to achieve a target cost of 12 yuan/kg by 2025 through various strategies, including optimizing breeding genetics and enhancing herd health [6]. - Shennong Group's operational efficiency is supported by a complete industry chain, including feed processing, pig breeding, slaughtering, and food processing [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The company has returned to profitability in the first quarter after three years, focusing on its core businesses of feed and pig farming, and is optimistic about its overall development [1] Cost Reduction Efforts - The company is continuously optimizing pig farming costs, aiming for a cost of 12.5 yuan/kg by Q1 2025 and 12 yuan/kg by the end of 2024 for its top 25% production lines [1] - The company is shifting its focus from merely raising pigs to improving pig quality through genetic enhancements and has increased investments in breeding systems [1][2] Quality and Market Strategy - The company is exploring a full industry chain development model, establishing a meat quality laboratory to analyze consumer demand and optimize breeding and feeding strategies accordingly [2] - The company remains cautious about future pig prices, emphasizing cost management to maintain stable profits regardless of market fluctuations [2] Technological Advancements - The company is actively exploring the application of AI and digital technologies in pig farming to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [3] - Various digital tools, such as autonomous robots and handheld weight estimation devices, are being implemented to improve operational efficiency [3][4] International Feed Business Expansion - The feed business is a key growth driver, with overseas feed operations expected to become a significant growth segment, targeting a net profit of 9.7 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - The company plans to increase overseas feed production capacity by 3-4 million tons over the next 3-5 years, focusing on high-margin products and expanding in key international markets [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the new industrial pattern is basically formed. Group companies continue the incremental trend, breeding port profits expand, some large - scale farms and individual farmers switch to the professional fattening mode, and flexibility is enhanced again. The dual - drive of raw materials and management leads to a further downward shift of the cost center. The supply increment in the first half of the year is not fully realized, and the social inventory is at a low level, in the inventory accumulation stage. In the second half of the year, the supply increment is gradually released, but the demand seasonally rebounds in the fourth quarter, in a stage of both supply and demand increase. The monthly supply change is relatively stable, and the inventory cycle rotation determines the price direction [2][40]. - The futures market has over - traded the multi - round inventory cycle in the distant future. As time approaches, both the supply data and the spot price center may falsify this expectation, and there may be an opportunity for re - evaluating the valuation. The industry is still in the profit stage, and the industry arranges hedging for the distant loss cycle according to the expected profit [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 H1 Review of Live Pig Futures and Spot Trends - The live pig futures and spot market in H1 2025 showed a reality repair after the expected over - reaction. The high profits in H2 2024 led to the expectation of large capacity increment in 2025, and each contract was anchored to the cost in advance. However, the low social inventory in Q1 and continuous high profits led to strong inventory accumulation space and willingness, and the supply increment was not effectively released [6]. - **Phase 1 (January - February)**: Weak expectation over - reaction, anchoring to cost. The market expected the industry to enter the production - increasing cycle in advance, and the January contract was once at a discount of nearly 3,000 yuan/ton to the spot. All contracts were priced based on the low - level cost [7]. - **Phase 2 (March - May)**: Reality was stronger, and the futures price recovered. After the Spring Festival, the social inventory and weight decreased. From February, the industry entered the stage of replenishing and accumulating inventory. The feed cost was low, and the group started the active weight - increasing trend. The low frozen - product inventory supported the off - season demand, and the futures price recovered [8]. - **Phase 3 (June)**: Policy influence increased volatility. The low - inventory and high - profit pattern in H1 led to strong inventory - accumulation persistence. The back structure of near - month contracts continued. The announcements of leading enterprises to reduce weight and ban secondary fattening intensified short - term volatility [9]. 2025 H2 Live Pig Operation Logic: Inventory Rotation, Valuation Reset Supply Side - **Supply Increment Trend in H2 is Certain**: The industry has been in continuous profit, and the production - increasing trend is hard to change. The increase in the number of fertile sows in 2024 indicates an increase in the supply of standard pigs in H2 2025. The expansion of the stocking group in H1 2025 also needs attention for the supply in H2 [13]. - **Monthly Standard Pig Supply is Relatively Stable**: The change in the industrial structure and the division of labor mode based on group advantages make the slaughter rhythm smoother. The proportion of small - scale farmers has been decreasing, while the proportion of large - scale enterprises has been increasing. Different groups have different advantages in breeding and fattening, and the division of labor is more refined [19]. - **Inventory Cycle Rotation has a Greater Impact on Quarterly Supply**: The speculation behavior of professional stocking and secondary fattening groups will have a more obvious impact on the supply rhythm. The inventory level is relatively high in H1 2025. The third quarter is expected to be in the de - stocking stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the fat - to - standard price difference can drive the re - stocking in the fourth quarter [25]. Demand Side - **Total Pork Demand Increases Year - on - Year, and Demand Elasticity Strengthens**: The consumption of frozen products has shifted to fresh products, and the demand elasticity has increased. The slaughter volume in H1 2025 is significantly higher than that of the same period in 2024, and the consumption capacity has increased. The low frozen - product inventory stimulates the shift from frozen to fresh consumption, and the demand will still be supported in H2 [31]. - **The Seasonal Influence of Demand will Strengthen**: The consumption of live pigs still follows the seasonal law. The new industrial pattern makes the monthly supply rhythm smoother, and the influence of cross - month demand fluctuations on price will increase. The consumption in the peak season before the Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to increase by more than 30% compared with the third quarter [35]. - **The Cost Center Further Declines, and Bottom - Level Consumption is Supported**: The feed cost is low, and the management cost is optimized. The average cost of the live pig industry in H1 2025 is expected to decline to the range of 13 yuan/kg. If the pig price falls below the cost line, it may stimulate short - term consumption [39]. Conclusion and Investment Outlook Conclusion - Pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the inventory cycle. The supply increment in H1 2025 is not fully realized, and the industry is in the inventory accumulation stage. In H2, the supply increment is gradually released, and the demand seasonally rebounds in the fourth quarter. The inventory cycle rotation determines the price direction [40]. - **Supply Side**: The industry is in the profit stage in H1 2025, and there is no driving force for active capacity reduction. The supply in H2 is relatively excessive, and there is pressure in the centralized de - stocking stage. The supply of standard pigs from August to October 2025 is expected to be under greater pressure [41]. - **Demand Side**: The slaughter volume in H1 2025 is higher than that of the same period in 2024, and the real pork consumption is strong. In addition to regular demand, the speculative demand is also strong in 2025. The cost center further declines in H2, and there is still seasonal demand increment in the peak season, giving price elasticity [42]. Investment Outlook - The supply in H2 2025 will increase marginally, but the price center will be significantly lower than that of the same period in 2024. The core fluctuation range of the spot price in H2 is expected to be 12,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton. In the third quarter, the supply is relatively loose, and the core fluctuation range is expected to be 12,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton, with the futures index fluctuating between 12,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, if de - stocking is achieved in the third quarter, the peak price in the peak season can be expected, with the core fluctuation range of 14,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton and the futures index between 13,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton. The main trading logic in H2 2025 is the inventory cycle, and there may be an opportunity for re - evaluating the valuation. The industry should arrange hedging according to the expected profit [43].

正信期货生猪周报 2025-6-23 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 政策引导下猪价偏强震荡 观点小结 | 生猪 | 短期观点 本周样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重连续两周持续下降、标肥价差基本持平、大猪出栏占比小幅增加。 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 据悉，在5月底相关部门召集头部猪企开会后，6月10日农业农村部也召开了生猪生产调度会，全国 | | | | 畜牧总站和各省农业厅参加。这次会议对各省提出了具体的生猪生产调控目标，主要政策包括：全 | | | 供应 | 国能繁母猪调减100万头至3950万头；优化生猪生产，加大弱仔淘汰力度，引导降低出栏体重，国储 | 偏多 | | | 收储体重要求降至115公斤；加强监测，地方也要将二育等情况纳入监测，每月向农业部上报各地能 | | | | 繁、存栏、均重、二育等情况。 | | | | 本次调控并不仅限于头部集团企业，而是面对整个生猪养殖行业的调控。目前头部企业已经做出表 | | | | 率，稳步降低能繁母猪存栏量，并明确了降重计划，未来2-3个月的时间里将均重将至120公斤。 | | | | 本周屠宰开工小幅下降，屠宰利润小幅下降 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The core focus of Muyuan Foods is on internationalization, with plans for an IPO in Hong Kong and collaborations with Vietnamese companies [1][2] - The purpose of the Hong Kong IPO is to enhance the company's credibility in the global market rather than to raise funds due to a lack of capital [1][3][7] - The company aims to leverage its experience from the African swine fever crisis to achieve excess returns in overseas markets [1][8] Group 2: IPO Strategy - Muyuan Foods submitted its H-share application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 27, with the IPO expected to occur in the fourth quarter of this year [2][3] - The company emphasizes that completing the IPO is more important than the amount of funds raised, as it will facilitate international business development [5][7] - The IPO proceeds will be used for international sourcing, talent acquisition, and partnerships with leading overseas companies [7] Group 3: Industry Insights - The current characteristics of the pig cycle are described as "weak cycle, narrow fluctuations, and slow changes," indicating a shift in market dynamics [17][18] - The company believes that the cost of pig farming can be reduced to around 10 yuan per kilogram, with current costs at 12.2 yuan per kilogram [20] - The focus on cost reduction is primarily driven by disease prevention, with smart technology playing a crucial role in this effort [20] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Muyuan Foods is investing in artificial intelligence and digitalization to enhance operational efficiency, aiming for a future of 24-hour unmanned operations [14][16] - The company is exploring overseas markets by exporting advanced equipment and technology, with Vietnam being the first target [8][11] - The revenue from smart equipment is currently low but is expected to grow significantly as the company expands its technological capabilities [10]

Core Insights - The overall supply of pigs in the market is sufficient, leading to a slight decline in pig prices since May, with the average price at 15 yuan per kilogram, down 1.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year [3] - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department has successfully narrowed the price fluctuations of pigs since implementing counter-cyclical production capacity adjustments in 2021, with the maximum price difference decreasing significantly from previous years [3] - As of the end of May, the number of breeding sows in the country was 40.42 million, a decrease of 380,000 from the peak at the end of last year [3] Industry Analysis - The pig farming industry is currently operating at a marginal profit level, with farmers employing strategies such as differentiated breeding and cost management to cope with market fluctuations [5][7] - In May, the average profit per pig sold was 76 yuan, marking a continuous profit streak for 13 months, which is an unprecedented long profit period in the industry [7] - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department plans to enhance market warning information dissemination and guide farmers to adjust their production in response to market conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices showing a recent rebound after a period of decline, but overall demand remains weak, leading to concerns about future price stability [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Trends - As of June 23, the main contract for live pig futures reached 13,975 yuan/ton, up nearly 5% from the low of 13,350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month [1] - The overall price of live pigs has been on a downward trend since the third quarter of 2024, currently at relatively low levels [1] - The average price of live pigs nationwide rose to 14.22 yuan/kg by June 20, following a drop to 13.94 yuan/kg on June 9 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for live pigs has weakened, leading to an oversupply situation that has caused prices to drop significantly [1][3] - The average trading price for 7 kg piglets in Hunan fell to 460 yuan/head by June 19, a decrease of 85 yuan/head or 15.6% since early May [2] - The increase in feed costs, particularly for corn and soybean meal, has further pressured the profitability of pig farming [3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Analysis - As of June 19, the average profit for self-breeding pigs was 137.93 yuan/head, down 66.12 yuan/head from early April, while the profit for piglets was 153.42 yuan/head, down 151.05 yuan/head [3] - The average feed cost for self-breeding pigs was 934.88 yuan, and for piglet fattening, it was 889.94 yuan, both showing increases from early April [3] Group 4: Slaughtering Trends - The daily slaughter volume for sample enterprises remained stable, with a range between 165,000 to 186,000 heads, influenced by increased supply and the profitability of fresh meat segmentation [4] - The average gross profit per head for slaughtering was 28.56 yuan, up 222.38% compared to the same period last year [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to face continued downward pressure on prices due to increased slaughtering rates and weak demand, although there are signs of improved market sentiment [5] - The third quarter may see a seasonal decline in pig stocks, potentially supporting higher average prices compared to the second quarter [4]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry is expected to maintain growth in hog output until at least September 2025, but overall hog prices are projected to remain under pressure, leading to a potential decline in profitability for the industry [1] - The number of breeding sows has started to decline since December 2024, with a slight increase in February 2025, and a 1.03% decrease in April 2025 compared to the peak in 2024, indicating a low overall capacity reduction in the industry [1] - The price of piglets has begun to decline since May 2025, which may prompt breeding farms to actively cull sows, leading to an expected simultaneous drop in hog and piglet prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Feed Industry - China's feed production reached 10.3 million tons from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, driven by the recovery in hog stocks, increased aquaculture, and stable poultry stocks [2] - Vietnam's animal feed production also saw growth, with a total output of 4.72 million tons (up 7.69% year-on-year) and aquaculture feed production of 2.84 million tons (up 8.37% year-on-year), indicating a robust demand for feed [2] - The growth in livestock and aquaculture stocks, along with increased feed penetration rates, suggests that Chinese feed companies are likely to experience good growth opportunities abroad [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - The export of pet food from China has been growing, with a total export volume of 110,200 tons from January to April 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%, and an export value of 3.22 billion yuan, up 6% [3] - Domestic consumption of pet food remains strong, with online sales of cat and dog food reaching 9.05 billion yuan from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [3] - The chain rate of pet hospitals in China is still relatively low compared to developed countries, indicating potential for improvement in this area [3]