证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 成长赛道仍具看点，关注股东大会催化 食品饮料行业周报（5.11） 消费品/食品饮料 财报季正式收官，白酒高端与区域龙头平稳落地，25 年行业目标普遍审慎。大 众品表现分化，饮料/零食/宠物食品等成长性赛道仍具看点，啤酒乳制品实现 复苏，调味品相对平淡，龙头业绩更优。本周策略会反馈来看，白酒仍然承 压，大众品 4 月整体动销平稳，乳品/调味品期待 Q2 改善。 核心公司跟踪：短期白酒仍然承压，大众品整体平稳 舍得酒业：Q2 整体需求环比承压明显。舍得主品在宴席场景有双位数增 长，但在商务场景仍相对承压，预计二季度后会有好转，但行业调整期预 计仍将持续。25 年公司在去库存后轻装上阵。 水井坊：Q2 环比压力增加，淡季需求回落明显。25 年将完成井台产品的 迭代，推出 18、28 号产品。终端拓展上，2024 年新增 1 万家门店， 25Q1 新增 2.5 万家，总门店数达到 7-8 万家，根据不同门店情况制定销 售任务。分市场来看，河北增长状况良好，内蒙、山东增速也较快。 伊利股份：Q2 延续改善，奶粉双线驱动。春节动销超预期，Q1 实现正增 长 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Key Points - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is expected to turn profitable in 2024, but profits in Q1 2025 are projected to decline by 30% quarter-on-quarter due to falling pig prices and seasonal weakness in meat consumption [1][2] - Major pig farming companies, such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, contributed 88% of the industry's profits, indicating a concentration of profitability among leading firms [1][3] - The cost optimization in pig farming for 2024 is primarily driven by a 9%-10% decrease in feed prices, while improvements in farming performance contributed only 2%-3% [1][5] - The asset-liability ratio of listed pig farming companies stabilized in Q1 2025, but production biological assets decreased by 4% year-on-year and 5.8% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a strategic reduction in breeding sows to mitigate future market risks [1][6] - The forecast for pig prices in 2025 suggests a downward trend, although post-Spring Festival performance may exceed expectations, necessitating a reassessment of the impact of secondary fattening [1][7] Subsector Analysis: Pig Farming Key Points - In 2024, listed pig farming companies saw a revenue increase of 2%-3% and a net profit of 31 billion yuan, marking a significant turnaround after three years of losses [3][4] - The average profit per head for leading companies remains robust, with Shennong Group maintaining profits above 300 yuan per head, while other companies face potential losses [8] Subsector Analysis: Poultry Farming Key Points - The white feather chicken market is experiencing price declines, with a 15% increase in supply in Q1 2025 leading to a 40% drop in chick prices [9][10] - Despite price pressures, the profitability of parent stock chickens remains strong, while the commodity chicken segment faces significant supply-demand challenges [10] Subsector Analysis: Pet Food Industry Key Points - The pet food industry has shown sustained high growth, with a 20% revenue increase in 2024 and a 23% increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong domestic and international demand [12][14] - Export growth is expected to slow, but domestic sales are projected to accelerate due to increased consumer spending and e-commerce support [15] Subsector Analysis: Pharmaceutical Industry Key Points - The pharmaceutical sector's performance in Q1 2025 was slightly below expectations, with a 3%-4% decline in revenue primarily due to the vaccine and traditional Chinese medicine sectors [31] - Notable growth was observed in the CXO, innovative drugs, and consumer healthcare segments, with leading companies like WuXi AppTec and Innovent Biologics showing strong performance [30][33] - The medical device sector is anticipated to recover in the latter half of the year, with increased procurement indicating a rebound in hospital demand [34] Additional Insights - The overall food and beverage sector is facing pressure, with traditional industries experiencing high concentration and competition, while emerging sectors like beverages and snacks show potential for growth [17][22] - The liquor industry has seen modest growth, with high-end brands outperforming mid-range products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [18][21] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call records, highlighting the performance and outlook of various sectors within the agriculture and food industries, as well as the pharmaceutical sector.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4] Core Views - The current pig price is on the rise, with the national average price for live pigs at 14.82 yuan/kg as of May 9, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.07% [28] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has reached a new high since early 2023, indicating a potential turning point in inventory levels, which may lead to a phase of destocking in the industry [28][3] - The report highlights a significant differentiation in sales performance among listed companies, with some experiencing a decline in sales volume while others maintain growth [2][13] Summary by Sections Sales Volume - In April, the total number of pigs sold by 13 listed companies was 16.26 million heads, a decrease of 5.39% month-on-month but an increase of 39.69% year-on-year [2][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, with the average weight for April reported at 125.25 kg, up by 0.81 kg from the previous month [17][28] Sales Price - The report notes that the average selling price of pigs has remained stable, with most companies reporting price fluctuations within 3% [2][15] - The lowest average price was recorded at 14.32 yuan/kg by TianKang Biological, while the highest was 15.81 yuan/kg by DongRui Co [15][2] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the current inventory levels are high, and the demand has weakened post the May Day holiday, leading to increased pressure on pig sales in southern regions [28][3] - The report suggests that the industry may be entering a destocking phase as the willingness to sell fattened pigs decreases [28][3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture for the pig farming sector [3] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the feed and animal health sectors, such as Haida Group and Ruipu Biological, as their performance is expected to improve with the recovery of pig inventory levels [3]

E-commerce and New Retail - Taobao Tmall and Xiaohongshu signed a strategic cooperation agreement to create the "Red Cat Plan," aiming to enhance the integration from "grass planting" to purchase, boosting merchant business growth [1] - The collaboration allows for the opening of effect advertising links, enabling content on Xiaohongshu to directly redirect to Taobao Tmall for participating brands [1] - This partnership enhances Taobao Tmall's user engagement and conversion rates while allowing Xiaohongshu to achieve a closed loop from content to transaction [1] Logistics and Supply Chain - During the 2025 May Day holiday, the national express delivery business volume exceeded 4.8 billion packages, marking a year-on-year growth of over 20%, setting a historical record for the same period [4] - Zhejiang Daniao Logistics increased its registered capital from approximately 98.39 million to about 498 million, a growth of approximately 407%, enhancing its market competitiveness [6] - The JD Logistics (Xuchang) Supply Chain Industrial Base, in collaboration with Pang Donglai, is expected to achieve an annual output value of about 2.5 billion, contributing 50 million in taxes [7] Life Services - The online operation of "Mivillage Mixed Rice" saw nearly a 100% increase in orders on Ele.me since the full launch of Taobao Flash Purchase, indicating strong synergy between the two platforms [8] - The partnership between Taobao Flash Purchase and Ele.me enhances Taobao's competitiveness in the instant retail sector, responding to competition from Meituan and JD [8] Innovation and Investment - "Qianjue Robotics" completed several million yuan in financing, with funds allocated for R&D, product iteration, and accelerating mass production delivery [12] - The company focuses on multi-modal tactile perception and operation technology for robots, indicating strong innovation potential in the robotics field [12]

农林牧渔 2025 年 05 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年养殖板块利润同比高增，宠 物高景气延续 —行业点评报告》- 2025.5.6 《外部环境多变，农业防御优势凸显 —农林牧渔行业 2025 年中期投资策 略 》-2025.5.5 《2024 年养殖板块利润同比高增，宠 物板块高景气延续 —行业周报》- 2025.5.5 短期消费疲软致猪价下挫，仔猪及母猪高价或表明 后市乐观预期 zhubenlun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124060020 消费升级叠加关税壁垒，宠物板块国货崛起逻辑持续强化。国内宠物主消费态 度趋于理性化，单宠消费投入持续升级，叠加宠物食品进出口关税壁垒加剧， 国货崛起逻辑持续强化。推荐：乖宝宠物、中宠股份、佩蒂股份。 本周市场表现（5.5-5.9）:农业跑输大盘 0.93 个百分点 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | -- ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 19 周周报：它博会归来，如何看宠物经济发展新趋势？ 1、宠物板块：高景气延续，国产替代与消费升级共筑量价双升 1）它博会看点：①今年关注度再上一层。第五届 TOPS 它博会于本周在上海国家会展中心开幕，展会以超 10 万平展览面积、1200 余家展商、8000+ 品牌缔造行业盛况，折射宠物赛道强劲增长动能。展会首日观众数同比激增 43%，创历史新高，核心数据验证行业扩容。②产品和工艺趋势变化：宠 物主粮精细化趋势显著，分龄分阶喂养成为核心升级方向：幼年期主打高蛋白、原生营养（麦富迪奶弗羊奶肉主粮系列），老年期聚焦肠胃调理、关节 养护（麦富迪老年犬粮）；工艺革新驱动高端化：低温烘焙成军备竞赛焦点（领先烘焙鲜肉猫粮、弗列加特鲜肉烘焙粮），鲜粮/湿粮赛道崛起（ZEAL 新西兰进口主食罐），国产技术迭代创新，行业从"粗放供给"迈向"精准营养+体验升级"新周期；③部分参展公司亮点：外资品牌如皇家、渴望、 爱肯拿，国产头部品牌如麦富迪、鲜朗、蓝氏，以及国产宠物用品公司天元宠物等齐聚展会，其中国产品牌表现较为亮眼——麦富迪它博会以"超级 工厂+天性数据研 ...

Group 1: Investment and Financing - Pet food brand "Paitexiansheng" completed a $25 million angel round financing, with funds allocated for big data product innovation, efficient supply chain construction, and refined store operations [1] - AI coffee brand WinnCafe secured several million yuan in angel round financing, focusing on integrating AI technology with traditional coffee-making processes [2] - Gaming marketing solution provider Sett raised $15 million in Series A funding led by Bessemer Venture Partners, aimed at enhancing user engagement through AI-driven marketing solutions [3] - "Qianjue Robot" completed several million yuan in financing, with funds directed towards technology research and product iteration [4] Group 2: E-commerce and Strategic Partnerships - Taobao Tmall and Xiaohongshu launched the "Red Cat Plan," enhancing their advertising link and aiming to boost merchant sales by integrating their platforms [5][6] - Xiaohongshu's recent collaboration with Taobao Tmall marks a shift from its previous strategy of building a closed e-commerce loop, indicating a reevaluation of its development positioning [7] Group 3: Consumer Trends and Market Performance - During the "May Day" holiday, Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping reached 510 million yuan, with 79,100 shoppers participating [10] - Douyin's consumption report indicated a significant increase in group buying orders for accommodation and family meals, with hotel and scenic package orders growing by 116% [11] - The national sports equipment market is projected to reach 602.1 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 14.2% year-on-year growth driven by increased public interest in sports [12] - The clothing industry in China saw a nearly 23% year-on-year increase in actual investment in the first quarter, surpassing growth in several other popular sectors [13]

Group 1 - The core issue of cat allergies is becoming more prevalent in China, with approximately 36 million households affected by cat allergies or interested in owning cats despite allergies [1][3] - Kantar's research indicates that there are about 22 million households that own cats but are allergic, and around 14 million households that wish to own cats despite allergy concerns [1] - The increasing number of cat owners is leading to greater exposure to cat allergens, making the issue of cat allergies more common [1] Group 2 - JD Health and Nestlé Purina are collaborating to promote education on cat allergies, launching a new anti-allergy cat food product called "Crown Comfort" during the 2025 TOPS Pet Expo [3][4] - The new cat food is designed to significantly reduce allergic reactions in humans when fed to cats for 21 days, with effects stabilizing after 100 days [3][4] - Traditional methods for managing cat allergies, such as medication or environmental cleaning, have limitations, highlighting the need for innovative solutions like the new cat food [3][4] Group 3 - The new cat food utilizes IgY antibody technology to neutralize the Fel d1 protein found in cat saliva, which is the primary allergen causing reactions in humans [4] - There is a growing trend in pet ownership and an increase in awareness of allergens, leading to a rising number of inquiries about cat allergies, reflecting a heightened health consciousness among consumers [4] - The collaboration between JD Health and Nestlé Purina aims to create a more professional and efficient pet ownership experience through a combination of scientific and professional services [4]

出品 | 36氪未来消费（微信ID：lslb168） 离你更近的消费创投一线。 整理 | 兰杰 头图 | IC photo Busy Money 宠物食品新零售品牌"派特鲜生"宣布完成2500万美元天使轮融资 36氪获悉，"派特鲜生"宣布完成天使轮融资。据了解，资金将用于大数据定制产品创新、建设高效供 应链体系和门店精细化运营及拓展，以满足宠主多样化要求。 官方小程序显示，截至目前派特鲜生已开出12家门店，均位于上海，2月22日，派特鲜生在上海长宁 海粟文化广场开出首店。另值得注意的是，其创始人侯毅曾是盒马鲜生创始人和CEO，加入阿里巴巴 前，他曾长期在京东任职，在京东到家、亚洲一号仓和京东物流中担任重要职位。 AI智能机器人咖啡品牌WinnCafe稳因咖啡获数千万元融资 据IT桔子消息，Appverse应用宇宙旗下的WinnCafe稳因咖啡成功获得数千万元天使轮融资，由业内 某知名风险投资人独家投资。WinnCafe稳因咖啡依托Appverse应用宇宙的互联网基因和技术背景， 致力于将AI智能机器人技术与传统咖啡制作工艺融合，以保证咖啡出品的品质和稳定性。 目前，WinnCafe稳因咖啡智能AI咖啡机已斩获 ...

新华财经上海5月9日电（记者杨溢仁）"第五届TOPS上海它博会"日前在上海开展，萌宠、美食、音乐、直播、交易、洽谈……展会现场人潮涌动，在全景 展示宠物"衣食住行康"的同时，诸多宠物品牌齐聚一堂，吸引了众多专业观众和采购商。分析人士指出，随着多元消费场景和业态的逐步建立，"宠物经 济"成为新的风口，行业前景持续向好。 "创新引领"已逢其时 得益于国内良好的"消费基底"与持续完善的营商环境，"宠物消费"规模正不断壮大。 《2025年中国宠物行业白皮书（消费报告）》显示，2024年国内城镇（犬猫）消费市场达到3002亿元。在主要消费人群中，年轻宠主占比持续攀升，"90 后"宠主占比为41.2%，"00后"宠主占比为25.6%，年轻人已经成为养宠主力军。 从高端宠物食品到智能化宠物用品，从专业宠物医疗到多样化宠物服务，年轻人的"宠物消费"呈现出多元化、个性化、高品质的特点，为"它经济"注入了新 的活力。 为培育服务消费新业态、释放服务消费新动能，日前，第五届TOPS上海它博会在上海国家会展中心启幕。 记者在展会上看到，本届展会汇聚了全国乃至全球极具影响力、创新力、时尚潮流的宠物品牌，展出面积突破10万平方米，囊括了 ...