证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-08-22 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3825.75 | 12166.06 | 4377.99 | 13655.04 | 3611.56 | 1247.86 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.44 | 2.06 | 2.09 | 1.10 | 2.06 | 8.58 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 10950.91 | 14516.18 | 6759.35 | 5066.62 | 6905.72 | 1104.30 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\overline{{{\mathbb{L}}}}\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观周报:高技术制造业宏观周报-国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数保持 不变 宏观周报:宏观经 ...

Employment Structure - China's service industry employment ratio is not low compared to 43 economies, but it is still lower than high-income economies, particularly in health and social work, and real estate sectors[2] - The employment ratio in the construction industry is close to that of high-income economies, indicating that the real estate development market is nearing saturation, while the real estate operation market has significant expansion potential[2] - The employment distribution shows that as of 2024, the employment ratios in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries are approximately 22.2%, 29.0%, and 48.8% respectively, indicating room for growth in the tertiary sector compared to developed economies[14] Wage Comparison - In 2022, China's average monthly wage was approximately $1434.8, which is below the average of $2690.1 for 43 economies, placing it in a medium-low wage category[28] - The highest-paying industry in China is information and communications, with an average monthly wage of $1533, while the lowest is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery at $526.9, resulting in a wage disparity ratio of 2.9, higher than the average of 2.5 for 43 economies[31] - The wage levels in the education and real estate sectors are relatively low, with average monthly wages being 2.3 and 2.4 times the minimum wage, respectively, which is below the average ratios of 2.9 and 2.6 for 43 economies[32] Policy Recommendations - Employment policies should focus on enhancing the service sector's role as an employment reservoir, facilitating the transition of labor from primary and secondary industries to the tertiary sector through targeted training programs[33] - There is a need to raise the minimum wage standards, aiming for an annual growth rate higher than economic growth and to increase the minimum wage to about 50% of the average wage, aligning with international standards[35]

Group 1 - The US Supreme Court has cleared the way for the Trump administration to dismantle the Department of Education [1] - The European Union is preparing to impose additional counter-tariffs on US goods worth €72 billion (approximately $84 billion) if trade negotiations fail [1][2] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated that a rapid deterioration in the job market could lead to larger interest rate cuts, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the next meeting [2] Group 2 - India's June CPI has slowed to 2.1% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline and providing more room for the central bank to ease monetary policy [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 88.14 points to close at 44,459.65, a gain of 0.20%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw slight increases [3] - The COMEX gold futures fell by 0.35% to $3,352.10 per ounce, and silver futures dropped by 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce [3]

Employment Statistics - In March 2025, total employment across all covered industries was 2,714,400, a decrease of 0.5% or 14,500 jobs compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The most significant employment increases were observed in the accommodation services sector (4.0% or 1,500 jobs), human health services (3.9% or 6,000 jobs), and real estate (3.7% or 5,100 jobs) [2] - Conversely, notable employment declines occurred in the retail sector (-4.6% or -11,100 jobs), wholesale trade (-3.4% or -1,700 jobs), information and communications (-3.3% or -3,600 jobs), and food services (-2.8% or -6,300 jobs) [2] Job Vacancy Statistics - As of March 2025, there were 55,170 job vacancies in private institutions, a decrease of 27% or 20,010 vacancies compared to the previous year [1][3] - The education sector accounted for 5,660 vacancies, followed by professional and business services (5,050), accommodation and social work services (4,950), food services (4,860), and financial and insurance services (4,660) [3] - Significant reductions in job vacancies were noted in transportation, warehousing, postal and courier services (-5,080 or -58%), human health services (-2,760 or -43%), and professional and business services (-1,670 or -25%) [3] Seasonally Adjusted Statistics - Seasonally adjusted figures indicated a slight increase of less than 0.05% in total employment and a decrease of 7.3% in total job vacancies when comparing March 2025 to December 2024 [4]

Core Insights - The talent supply and demand landscape in Guangxi has changed in 2023, with a total demand for 90,697 talents in the first quarter, reflecting a 5.90% increase in job seekers compared to the previous quarter, indicating a recovery trend in talent mobility during spring [1] - The tertiary industry remains dominant, accounting for 66.77% of talent demand, although it has decreased by 5.67 percentage points year-on-year; in contrast, the secondary industry has seen an increase, making up 30.59% of the demand [1] - Among 24 major industry categories, nearly 60% experienced a year-on-year decline in talent demand, while 10 industries saw growth, with manufacturing leading at a 7.08% increase, particularly in the handicrafts and machinery manufacturing sectors [1] Industry Distribution - The top five industries for talent demand are leasing and business services, manufacturing, information transmission/computer services and software, construction, and education, collectively accounting for 76.65% of the demand [1] - The manufacturing sector, especially in handicrafts and machinery manufacturing, has shown significant growth, with talent demand proportions of 84.88% and 18.48% respectively, driving the overall industry growth [1] Position Categories - In the first quarter, 13 job categories in Guangxi experienced growth, with sales positions leading at a 28.00% increase; however, over 70% of job categories saw a year-on-year decline in talent demand [2] - There is a notable talent gap in skilled labor and production/manufacturing positions, with worker/operator roles being the most in demand [2] Salary Trends - The average salary for positions posted on Guangxi Talent Network has shown a growth trend, reaching 5,640 yuan/month, with a 1.06% increase from the previous quarter [3] - Job seekers' expected salary remains stable, primarily concentrated in the 3,000-4,999 yuan/month range, while the majority of job postings are in the 4,000-4,999 yuan/month range, indicating that salary levels are generally meeting or slightly exceeding some job seekers' expectations [3] - In several salary ranges, the offered salaries exceed job seekers' expectations, reflecting strong demand for talent and indicating challenges in recruitment for some employers [3]

Group 1: Employment Trends - In 2024, the average annual salary for urban non-private sector employees is 124,000 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 6.8 percentage points since 2021, now at a growth rate of 2.8%[3] - Employment is shifting from high-salary industries to sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, indicating a trend towards "anti-involution" since 2021[4] - The transportation and service industries have seen a reduction in weekly working hours by 4.2 and 3.6 hours respectively, while hourly wages increased by 3.9 and 3.6 yuan/hour, suggesting improved job attractiveness[4] Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence - From 2019 to 2023, the wage growth in the eastern region was 7.5%, compared to 7.1% in the central and western regions, with the gap narrowing from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2023[5] - The wage growth in the central and western regions has shown resilience, with the central region's wage growth remaining stable at around 7.1%[5] - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating to the central and western regions, with the proportion of employees in accommodation and retail sectors decreasing from 20.8 and 10.1 percentage points below the eastern region to 18.2 and 9 percentage points respectively[6] Group 3: Private and Flexible Employment - The average salary growth for private sector employees is lower than that of non-private sector employees, but certain sectors like education and retail services have seen higher growth rates of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively[7] - The concentration of small and medium enterprises in the service sector has led to better salary growth in private units compared to non-private units[10] - New flexible employment roles, such as ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, have higher average monthly salaries of 10,506 yuan, significantly above traditional employees' 8,910 yuan, despite longer working hours[10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new trends in employment and wage data for urban employees in 2024, highlighting shifts from high salary pursuits to a focus on reducing work intensity and improving hourly wages across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Trend 1: Employment is shifting from "pursuing high salaries" to "anti-involution," with a notable decrease in average wage growth for urban non-private sector employees, which has dropped to 2.8% in 2024, down 6.8 percentage points since 2021 [2][9]. - The transportation, leather, and clothing industries have shown resilience in wage growth, with transportation revenue growth exceeding 8% in 2024, while the average wage in the non-private sector is 124,000 yuan [2][9]. - Employment is increasingly moving towards sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, such as healthcare, where weekly working hours decreased by 1.5 hours and hourly wages increased by 9.3 yuan from 2021 to 2023 [2][32]. Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence and Employment Consumption - Trend 2: There is a convergence in wage growth between eastern and western regions, with the wage growth rate in eastern urban non-private sectors at 7.5% from 2019 to 2023, compared to 7.1% in the western regions, narrowing the gap from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2024 [4][52][53]. - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating towards the western regions, driven by stronger wage growth resilience in these areas, particularly in hospitality and retail sectors [4][75]. - The shift in consumer behavior from local to cross-province consumption is further concentrating employment in the service sector in the western regions, with significant growth in consumer spending in these areas [5][80]. Group 3: Wage Growth in Private and Flexible Employment - Trend 3: Some private and flexible employment sectors are experiencing wage increases, particularly in the service industry, where private sector wage growth is higher than in non-private sectors, with education and retail showing increases of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively [6][96]. - The average wage growth for private sector employees has decreased to 1.7%, while flexible employment, particularly in new roles like ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, has seen a rise in average monthly income to 10,506 yuan, significantly higher than traditional employment [7][114]. - New flexible employment roles are characterized by higher pay but also increased work intensity, with platform-based workers averaging 54.3 hours per week, compared to traditional workers [7][122].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 405 billion yuan on May 6, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan for the day, as 1,087 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - Overnight and seven-day pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions decreased by over 7 basis points [3] Group 2: Interbank Rates and Bonds - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was around 1.74%, showing little change from the previous day [7] - The yields on major interbank bonds showed slight variations, with one-year government bonds at 1.4625%, two-year at 1.4525%, and ten-year at 1.6260% [9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Caixin China Services PMI for April recorded 50.7, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from March, marking the lowest level in seven months [13] - The composite PMI output index fell by 0.7 percentage points to 51.1, indicating a slowdown in domestic enterprise production and operational activities [13] Group 4: Trade and Economic Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated expectations for progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations in the coming weeks, suggesting that the 145% tariffs imposed by Trump cannot be maintained long-term [15] - California's governor stated that Trump's tariff policies have significantly harmed the state, emphasizing continued openness to trade with China [15] Group 5: Corporate Bond Market - Apple issued corporate bonds for the first time in 2023 amid increasing pressure from bond investors due to trade concerns [17] - A survey by JPMorgan revealed that 64% of clients held a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds [17]